Ross River virus disease in Australia, 1886-1998, with analysis of risk factors associated with outbreaks

Ross River virus (RE) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand human and environmental factors driving such events, 57 historical reports oil RR Outbreaks between 1896 and 1998 were examined collectively. The magnitude, regularity, seasonality, and locality of outbreaks were found to be wide ranging; however, analysis of climatic and tidal data highlighted that environmental conditions let differently ill tropical, arid, and temperate regions. Overall, rainfall seems to be the single most important risk factor, with over 90% of major outbreak locations receiving higher than average rainfall in preceding mouths. Many temperatures were close to average, particularly in tropical populations; however, in arid regions, below average maximum temperatures predominated, and ill southeast temperate regions, above average minimum temperatures predominated. High spring tides preceded coastal Outbreaks, both in the presence and absence of rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index and Lit Nina episodes suggest they may be useful predictive tools, but only ill southeast temperate regions. Such heterogeneity predisposing outbreaks supports the notion that there are different RE epidemiologies throughout Australia but also Suggests that generic parameters for the prediction and control of outbreaks are of limited use at a local level.

A Bayesian approach to imposing curvature on distance functions

The estimated parameters of output distance functions frequently violate the monotonicity, quasi-convexity and convexity constraints implied by economic theory, leading to estimated elasticities and shadow prices that are incorrectly signed, and ultimately to perverse conclusions concerning the effects of input and output changes on productivity growth and relative efficiency levels. We show how a Bayesian approach can be used to impose these constraints on the parameters of a translog output distance function. Implementing the approach involves the use of a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is also used within the Gibbs to simulate observations from truncated pdfs. Our methods are developed for the case where panel data is available and technical inefficiency effects are assumed to be time-invariant. Two models-a fixed effects model and a random effects model-are developed and applied to panel data on 17 European railways. We observe significant changes in estimated elasticities and shadow price ratios when regularity restrictions are imposed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uniqueness criteria for continuous-time Markov chains with general transition structures

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of bounded or summable solutions to systems of linear equations associated with Markov chains. This substantially extends a famous result of G. E. H. Reuter, which provides a convenient means of checking various uniqueness criteria for birth-death processes. Our result allows chains with much more general transition structures to be accommodated. One application is to give a new proof of an important result of M. F. Chen concerning upwardly skip-free processes. We then use our generalization of Reuter's lemma to prove new results for downwardly skip-free chains, such as the Markov branching process and several of its many generalizations. This permits us to establish uniqueness criteria for several models, including the general birth, death, and catastrophe process, extended branching processes, and asymptotic birth-death processes, the latter being neither upwardly skip-free nor downwardly skip-free.

On the Schrodinger equation involving a critical Sobolev exponent and magnetic field

We consider the semilinear Schrodinger equation -Delta(A)u + V(x)u = Q(x)vertical bar u vertical bar(2* -2) u. Assuming that V changes sign, we establish the existence of a solution u not equal 0 in the Sobolev space H-A,V(1) + (R-N). The solution is obtained by a min-max type argument based on a topological linking. We also establish certain regularity properties of solutions for a rather general class of equations involving the operator -Delta(A).

Output price subsidies in a stochastic world

This article studies the comparative statics of output subsidies for firms, with monotonic preferences over costs and returns, that face price and production uncertainty. The modeling of deficiency payments, support-price schemes, and stochastic supply shifts in a state-space framework is discussed. It is shown how these notions can be used, via a simple application of Shephard's lemma, to analyze input-demand shifts once comparative-static results for supply are available. A range of comparative-static results for supply are then developed and discussed.

Seizure detection algorithm for neonates based on wave-sequence analysis

Objective: The description and evaluation of the performance of a new real-time seizure detection algorithm in the newborn infant. Methods: The algorithm includes parallel fragmentation of EEG signal into waves; wave-feature extraction and averaging; elementary, preliminary and final detection. The algorithm detects EEG waves with heightened regularity, using wave intervals, amplitudes and shapes. The performance of the algorithm was assessed with the use of event-based and liberal and conservative time-based approaches and compared with the performance of Gotman's and Liu's algorithms. Results: The algorithm was assessed on multi-channel EEG records of 55 neonates including 17 with seizures. The algorithm showed sensitivities ranging 83-95% with positive predictive values (PPV) 48-77%. There were 2.0 false positive detections per hour. In comparison, Gotman's algorithm (with 30 s gap-closing procedure) displayed sensitivities of 45-88% and PPV 29-56%; with 7.4 false positives per hour and Liu's algorithm displayed sensitivities of 96-99%, and PPV 10-25%; with 15.7 false positives per hour. Conclusions: The wave-sequence analysis based algorithm displayed higher sensitivity, higher PPV and a substantially lower level of false positives than two previously published algorithms. Significance: The proposed algorithm provides a basis for major improvements in neonatal seizure detection and monitoring. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. on behalf of International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck operator in convex domains of Banach spaces

Studiamo l'operatore di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck e il semigruppo di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck in un sottoinsieme aperto convesso $\Omega$ di uno spazio di Banach separabile $X$ dotato di una misura Gaussiana centrata non degnere $\gamma$. In particolare dimostriamo la disuguaglianza di Sobolev logaritmica e la disuguaglianza di Poincaré, e grazie a queste disuguaglianze deduciamo le proprietà spettrali dell'operatore di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. Inoltre studiamo l'equazione ellittica $\lambdau+L^{\Omega}u=f$ in $\Omega$, dove $L^\Omega$ è l'operatore di Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. Dimostriamo che per $\lambda>0$ e $f\in L^2(\Omega,\gamma)$ la soluzione debole $u$ appartiene allo spazio di Sobolev $W^{2,2}(\Omega,\gamma)$. Inoltre dimostriamo che $u$ soddisfa la condizione di Neumann nel senso di tracce al bordo di $\Omega$. Questo viene fatto finita approssimazione dimensionale.

A(S) CIÊNCIA(S) DA(S) RELIGIÃO(ÕES) NO ALVORECER DE UM NOVO PARADIGMA

A reflexão proposta neste estudo está centrada na possibilidade de o Novo Paradigma Sistêmico , tal qual o concebe o físico norte-americano Fritjof Capra, fundamentar um modelo epistemológico, possível de integrar em seu âmbito os pontos de vista divergentes no debate sobre o tratamento científico do fenômeno religioso. A história das ciências da religião está marcada pelo dilema epistemológico: explicar ou compreender a religião? As ciências da natureza contrapuseram-se às ciências do espírito, que diferiam das primeiras pelo objeto, pelo método e pela relação entre o sujeito e o objeto. O debate que esteve presente no cenário dos séculos XIX e XX mostrou-nos a impossibilidade de se definir um modelo de ciência que incorporasse, em seu seio, uma integração dos pontos de vista divergentes, em razão dos princípios que norteavam o paradigma cientificista. No entanto, a emergência do paradigma dos sistemas vivos ou da complexidade , liderado pela física, veio conceber o caráter sistêmico da realidade; que o concreto material é energia sob o aspecto subatômico; que sob o aspecto subatômico, a matéria não existe em lugares definidos com certeza, mas apenas mostram tendências a existir. Estas e outras descobertas possibilitaram aos cientistas afirmar a existência de um Novo Paradigma , em que as categorias análise, regularidade e objetividade, que caracterizavam o antigo, são substituídas por: síntese, irregularidade e conduta epistêmica. O paradigma emergente possibilitou a construção de um modelo epistemológico do conhecimento científico, que apontamos como legitimador das condutas fenomenológicas, tal qual as concebem G. van der Leeuw e F. Heiler, ao mesmo tempo em que possibilita a integração de pontos de vista divergentes, no debate entre as vertentes, explicação/compreensão.(AU)

A CONSTRUÇÃO CULTURAL DA NARRATIVA NOTICIOSA: noticiabilidade, representação simbólica e regularidade cotidiana

A tese constitui uma discussão teórico-conceitual de natureza eminentemente qualitativa sobre a construção cultural dos chamados critérios de noticiabilidade no jornalismo. Sua proposta central é inserir a problemática da noticiabilidade isto é, a discussão em torno dos parâmetros que levam determinados acontecimentos a receber a valoração de notícia em detrimento de outros no interior de uma reflexão mais ampla, de ordem culturalista, que objetiva dimensionar a narrativa noticiosa como um dos elementos estético-expressivos mais consistentes na sustentação da experiência cotidiana moderna. Como objetivos específicos, busca-se: 1) a discussão teórica de algumas das mais significativas abordagens conceituais que os critérios de noticiabilidade recebem historicamente nas ciências sociais; 2) a apresentação de um conjunto alternativo de concepções teóricas que, articuladas, possam explicitar a complexidade do processo de seleção noticiosa; e 3) a proposição de uma sistematização teórico-conceitual para tais articulações de modo a sintonizar a tese com o estado da arte no campo da teoria do jornalismo. Aporta-se, ao fim, na elaboração de um modelo explicativo pendular que se institui como metáfora possível para a relação entre o jornalismo, os paradoxos cotidianos e os parâmetros simbólicos que caracterizam a regularidade cotidiana como padrão cultural da sociabilidade moderna.

General bounds on Bayes errors for regression with Gaussian processes

Based on a simple convexity lemma, we develop bounds for different types of Bayesian prediction errors for regression with Gaussian processes. The basic bounds are formulated for a fixed training set. Simpler expressions are obtained for sampling from an input distribution which equals the weight function of the covariance kernel, yielding asymptotically tight results. The results are compared with numerical experiments.

A new entropy measure based on the Renyi entropy rate using Gaussian kernels

The concept of entropy rate is well defined in dynamical systems theory but is impossible to apply it directly to finite real world data sets. With this in mind, Pincus developed Approximate Entropy (ApEn), which uses ideas from Eckmann and Ruelle to create a regularity measure based on entropy rate that can be used to determine the influence of chaotic behaviour in a real world signal. However, this measure was found not to be robust and so an improved formulation known as the Sample Entropy (SampEn) was created by Richman and Moorman to address these issues. We have developed a new, related, regularity measure which is not based on the theory provided by Eckmann and Ruelle and proves a more well-behaved measure of complexity than the previous measures whilst still retaining a low computational cost.

Measuring the spatial arrangement patterns of pathological lesions in histological sections of brain tissue

The development of abnormal protein aggregates in the form of extracellular plaques and intracellular inclusions is a characteristic feature of many neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and the fronto-temporal dementias (FTD). An important aspect of a pathological protein aggregate is its spatial topography in the tissue. Lesions may not be randomly distributed within a histological section but exhibit spatial pattern, a departure from randomness either towards regularity or clustering. Information on the spatial pattern of a lesion may be useful in elucidating its pathogenesis and in studying the relationships between different lesions. This article reviews the methods that have been used to study the spatial topography of lesions. These include simple tests of whether the distribution of a lesion departs significantly from random using randomized points or sample fields, and more complex methods that employ grids or transects of contiguous fields and which can detect the intensity of aggregation and the sizes, distribution and spacing of the clusters. The usefulness of these methods in elucidating the pathogenesis of protein aggregates in neurodegenerative disease is discussed.

Methods of studying the planar distribution of objects in histological sections of brain tissue

This article reviews the statistical methods that have been used to study the planar distribution, and especially clustering, of objects in histological sections of brain tissue. The objective of these studies is usually quantitative description, comparison between patients or correlation between histological features. Objects of interest such as neurones, glial cells, blood vessels or pathological features such as protein deposits appear as sectional profiles in a two-dimensional section. These objects may not be randomly distributed within the section but exhibit a spatial pattern, a departure from randomness either towards regularity or clustering. The methods described include simple tests of whether the planar distribution of a histological feature departs significantly from randomness using randomized points, lines or sample fields and more complex methods that employ grids or transects of contiguous fields, and which can detect the intensity of aggregation and the sizes, distribution and spacing of clusters. The usefulness of these methods in understanding the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is discussed. © 2006 The Royal Microscopical Society.

What does the study of the spatial patterns of pathological lesions tell us about the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders?

Discrete pathological lesions, which include extracellular protein deposits, intracellular inclusions and changes in cell morphology, occur in the brain in the majority of neurodegenerative disorders. These lesions are not randomly distributed in the brain but exhibit a spatial pattern, that is, a departure from randomness towards regularity or clustering. The spatial pattern of a lesion may reflect pathological processes affecting particular neuroanatomical structures and, therefore, studies of spatial pattern may help to elucidate the pathogenesis of a lesion and of the disorders themselves. The present article reviews first, the statistical methods used to detect spatial patterns and second, the types of spatial patterns exhibited by pathological lesions in a variety of disorders which include Alzheimer's disease, Down syndrome, dementia with Lewy bodies, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, Pick's disease and corticobasal degeneration. These studies suggest that despite the morphological and molecular diversity of brain lesions, they often exhibit a common type of spatial pattern (i.e. aggregation into clusters that are regularly distributed in the tissue). The pathogenic implications of spatial pattern analysis are discussed with reference to the individual disorders and to studies of neurodegeneration as a whole.