A lesson from cyclone Larry: An untold story of the success of good coastal planning

When tropical cyclone Larry crossed the Queensland coast on 20 March 2006, commercial, recreational and naval vessels in the port of Cairns, 60 km north of the eye of the cyclone and others closer to the eye, were protected from the destructive winds by sheltering in deep mangrove creeks in Trinity Inlet and off other coastal rivers. The Trinity Inlet mangroves are protected under the comprehensive multi-use Trinity Inlet Management Plan, agreed by the local and state government agencies (Cairns City Council, the Cairns Port Authority and the Queensland Government). Using this Australian example and one from the town of Palompon in Leyte province, central Philippines, we show how long-term mangrove habitat protection resulting from well-conceived coastal planning can deliver important economic and infrastructure benefits.

Supporting mindful planners in a mindless system: Limitations to the emotional turn in planning practice

Despite widespread acknowledgment within planning scholarship that emotion – both present in knowledge and a form of knowledge – is integral to lived experience and the judgement of planners, it is often sidelined within planning practice. The extent to which mainstream planning has been able or willing to accommodate emotions remains constrained and the emotions of planners and the public remain an unacknowledged but pervasive presence. Antonio Ferreira recently highlighted in this journal the importance of attending to emotions at the level of the individual planner through the concept of mindfulness. We argue this approach must be complemented by an acknowledgement of the structural and institutional limitations of including emotions in planning practice. Drawing from the emotional geographies literature to describe a social-spatial conceptualisation of emotion, we highlight ontological and practical tensions associated with the achievement of the ‘emotional turn’ and advance a more purposeful engagement with emotion in mainstream planning practice.

Planning the unplanned City: The story of the gold coast

One of the distinctive features of Gold Coast urbanisation is its historically ad hoc approach to development with little or no strategic planning to guide it. Many have commented on the lack of planning on the Gold Coast calling it ‘an experiment in freedom’ or ‘free enterprise city’. Following a major restructuring of the Queensland’s local councils, the 1990s witnessed a shift from ad hoc decision making to more systematic planning on the Gold Coast. Understanding the past is important for shaping the future. This paper reviews the history of regulatory planning on the Gold Coast, encompassing decisions affecting the form and development of its earliest settlements through to its periods of greatest construction and most streamlined decision–making. It focuses mainly on past planning processes, the problems identified in each planning exercise and the interventions introduced, asking whether these were implemented or not and why. The paper positions the Gold Coast as a physical embodiment of this history of decision making, assessing the effects on the city as a whole of specific measures either affording freedoms or insisting on accountability to various levels of regulation. It examines how the absence of some planning measures influenced the form of the city and its internal arrangements and considers how the shift from ad hoc decision making towards more systematic planning efforts affected the city’s urbanisation. The lessons that the Gold Coast example provides will resonate with places elsewhere in Australia and the world, if not always in scale definitely in substance.

Anticipatory and reactive response to falls: Muscle synergy activation of forearm muscles

We investigated the surface electromyogram response of six forearm muscles to falls onto the outstretched hand. The extensor carpi radialis longus, extensor carpi radialis brevis, extensor carpi ulnaris, abductor pollicis longus, flexor carpi radialis and flexor carpi ulnaris muscles were sampled from eight volunteers who underwent ten self-initiated falls. All muscles initiated prior to impact. Co-contraction is the most obvious surface electromyogram feature. The predominant response is in the radial deviators. The surface electromyogram timing we recorded would appear to be a complex anticipatory response to falling modified by the ef- fect on the forearm muscles following impact. The mitigation of the force of impact is probably more importantly through shoulder abduction and extension and elbow flexion rather than action of the forearm muscles.

Analytical model of reactive transport processes with spatially variable coefficients

Analytical solutions of partial differential equation (PDE) models describing reactive transport phenomena in saturated porous media are often used as screening tools to provide insight into contaminant fate and transport processes. While many practical modelling scenarios involve spatially variable coefficients, such as spatially variable flow velocity, v(x), or spatially variable decay rate, k(x), most analytical models deal with constant coefficients. Here we present a framework for constructing exact solutions of PDE models of reactive transport. Our approach is relevant for advection-dominant problems, and is based on a regular perturbation technique. We present a description of the solution technique for a range of one-dimensional scenarios involving constant and variable coefficients, and we show that the solutions compare well with numerical approximations. Our general approach applies to a range of initial conditions and various forms of v(x) and k(x). Instead of simply documenting specific solutions for particular cases, we present a symbolic worksheet, as supplementary material, which enables the solution to be evaluated for different choices of the initial condition, v(x) and k(x). We also discuss how the technique generalizes to apply to models of coupled multispecies reactive transport as well as higher dimensional problems.

Planning, Managing and Evaluating Group Housing Systems for Gestating Sows

This project will examine infrastructure changes required to existing gestation stall accommodation including performance and economics.

An algorithm for optimum control of static VAR compensators to meet phase-wise unbalanced reactive power demands

The operation of thyristor-controlled static VAR compensators (SVCs) at various conduction angles can be used advantageously to meet the unablanced reactive power demands in a system. However, such operation introduces harmonic currents into the AC system. This paper presents an algorithm to evaluate an optimum combination of the phase-wise reactive power generations from SVC and balanced reactive power supply from the AC system, based on the defined performance indices, namely, the telephone influence factor (TIF), the total harmonic current factor (IT) and the distortion factor (D). Results of the studies conducted on a typical distribution system are presented and discussed.

Studies on immune activation in rheumatoid arthritis and reactive arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disease characterized by synovitis, progressive joint destruction, and disability. Reactive arthritis (ReA) is a sterile joint inflammation following a distant mucosal infection. The clinical course of these diseases is variable and cannot be predicted with reasonable accuracy by clinical and laboratory markers. The predictive value of circulating soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R), a marker of lymphocyte activation, measured by Immulite® automated immunoassay analyzer, was evaluated in two cohorts of RA patients. In 175 patients with active early RA randomized to treatment with either on disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) or a combination of 3 DMARDs and prednisolone, low baseline sIL-2R level predicted remission after 6 months in patients treated with a single DMARD. In 24 patients with active RA refractory to DMARDs, low baseline sIL-2R level predicted rapid clinical response to treatment with infliximab, an anti-tumour necrosis factor antibody. Furthermore, in a cohort of 26 patients with acute ReA, high baseline sIL-2R level predicted remission after 6 months. Levels of circulating soluble E-selectin (sE-selectin), a marker of endothelial activation, were measured annually by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in a cohort of 85 patients with early RA. During a five-year follow-up, sE-selectin levels were associated with activity and outcome of RA. The levels of neutrophil and monocyte CD11b/CD18 expression measured by flow cytometry, and circulating levels of sE-selectin measured by ELISA, and procalcitonin by immunoluminometric assay, were compared in 28 patients with acute ReA and 16 patients with early RA. The levels of the markers were comparable in ReA, RA, and healthy control subjects. In conlusion, sIL-2R may provide a new predictive marker in early RA treated with a single DMARD and refractory RA treated with infliximab. In addition, sIL-2R level predicts remission in acute ReA.

Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.

Bat habitat requirements : implications for land use planning

Knowledge of the habitat requirements of bat species is needed in decision making in land use planning. Bats' hibernation requirements were studied both in Estonia and in southern Finland. In both countries, the northern bat and the brown long-eared bat hibernated in colder and drier locations, whereas Daubenton's bat and Brandt's/whiskered bats hibernated in warmer and more humid locations. In Estonia, the pond bat hibernated in the warmest and most humid conditions, whereas Natterer's bat hibernated in the coldest and driest conditions. Hibernacula were at their coldest in mid-season and became warmer towards the end of the season. The results suggest that bats made an active choice of colder hibernation temperatures at the seasons end. They minimised the negative effects of hibernation early in the hibernation season by hibernating in warmer locations and energy expenditure late in the hibernation season by hibernating in colder locations. The use of foraging habitats was studied in northern and southern Finland. The northern bat used foraging sites opportunistically. Daubenton's bat foraged mainly in water habitats, whereas Brandt's/whiskered bats and the brown long-eared bat foraged mainly in forest habitats. In northern Finland, Daubenton's bats foraged almost exclusively on rivers and typically together with the northern bat. Daubenton's bats and Brandt's/whiskered bats were found only where there were lower ambient light levels. One of the most important things in the management of foraging areas for them is to keep them shady. Hibernacula in Finland typically housed few bats, suggesting that hibernation sites used by even a small number of bats are important. Bats typically used natural stone for hibernation suggesting that natural underground sites in rocks or cliffs or man-made underground sites built using natural stone are important for them. The results suggest that appropriate timing of surveys may vary according to the species and latitude.

Owner-driven decision support in holding-specific forest planning

Socio-economic and demographic changes among family forest owners and demands for versatile forestry decision aid motivated this study, which sought grounds for owner-driven forest planning. Finnish family forest owners’ forest-related decision making was analyzed in two interview-based qualitative studies, the main findings of which were surveyed quantitatively. Thereafter, a scheme for adaptively mixing methods in individually tailored decision support processes was constructed. The first study assessed owners’ decision-making strategies by examining varying levels of the sharing of decision-making power and the desire to learn. Five decision-making modes – trusting, learning, managing, pondering, and decisive – were discerned and discussed against conformable decision-aid approaches. The second study conceptualized smooth communication and assessed emotional, practical, and institutional boosters of and barriers to such smoothness in communicative decision support. The results emphasize the roles of trust, comprehension, and contextual services in owners’ communicative decision making. In the third study, a questionnaire tool to measure owners’ attitudes towards communicative planning was constructed by using trusting, learning, and decisive dimensions. Through a multivariate analysis of survey data, three owner groups were identified as fusions of the original decision-making modes: trusting learners (53%), decisive learners (27%), and decisive managers (20%). Differently weighted communicative services are recommended for these compound wishes. The findings of the studies above were synthesized in a form of adaptive decision analysis (ADA), which allows and encourages the decision-maker (owner) to make deliberate choices concerning the phases of a decision aid (planning) process. The ADA model relies on adaptability and feedback management, which foster smooth communication with the owner and (inter-)organizational learning of the planning institution(s). The summarized results indicate that recognizing the communication-related amenity values of family forest owners may be crucial in developing planning and extension services. It is therefore recommended that owners, root-level planners, consultation professionals, and pragmatic researchers collaboratively continue to seek stable change.

Multiobjective Analysis of Irrigation Planning in River Basin Development

A river basin that is extensively developed in the downstream reaches and that has a high potential for development in the upper reaches is considered for irrigation planning. A four-reservoir system is modeled on a monthly basis by using a mathematical programing (LP) formulation to find optimum cropping patterns, subject to land, water, and downstream release constraints. The model is applied to a fiver basin in India. Two objectives, maximizing net economic benefits and maximizing irrigated cropped area, considered in the model are analyzed in the context of multiobjective planning, and the tradeoffs are discussed.

Diet and the development of atherosclerosis: a whole-diet approach from childhood to adulthood

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality in the world. Studies of the impact of single nutrients on the risk for CVD have often provided inconclusive results, and recent research in nutritional epidemiology with a more holistic whole-diet approach has proven fruitful. Moreover, dietary habits in childhood and adolescence may play a role in later health and disease, either independently or by tracking into adulthood. The main aims of this study were to find childhood and adulthood determinants of adulthood diet, to identify dietary patterns present among the study population and to study the associations between long-term food choices and cardiovascular health in young Finnish adults. The study is a part of the multidisciplinary Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study, which is an ongoing, prospective cohort study with a 21-year follow-up. At baseline in 1980, the subjects were children and adolescents aged 3 to 18 years (n included in this study = 1768), and young adults aged 24 to 39 years at the latest follow-up study in 2001 (n = 1037). Food consumption and nutrient intakes were assessed with repeated 48-hour dietary recalls. Other determinations have included comprehensive risk factor assessments using blood tests, physical measurements and questionnaires. In the latest follow-up, ultrasound examinations were performed to study early atherosclerotic vascular changes. The average intakes showed substantial changes since 1980. Intakes of fat and saturated fat had decreased, whereas the consumption of fruits and vegetables had increased. Intake of fat and consumption of vegetables in childhood and physical activity in adulthood were important health behavioural determinants of adult diet. Additionally, a principal component analysis was conducted to identify major dietary patterns at each study point. A similar set of two major patterns was recognised throughout the study. The traditional dietary pattern positively correlated with the consumption of traditional Finnish foods, such as rye, potatoes, milk, butter, sausages and coffee, and negatively correlated with fruit, berries and dairy products other than milk. This type of diet was independently associated with several risk factors of CVD, such as total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein B and C-reactive protein concentrations among both genders, as well as with systolic blood pressure and insulin levels among women. The traditional pattern was also independently associated with intima media thickness (IMT), a subclinical predictor of CVD, in men but not in women. The health-conscious pattern, predominant among female subjects, non-smokers and urbanites, was characterised by more health-conscious food choices such as vegetables, legumes and nuts, tea, rye, fish, cheese and other dairy products, as well as by the consumption of alcoholic beverages. This pattern was inversely, but less strongly, associated with cardiovascular risk factors. Tracking of the dietary pattern scores was observed, particularly among subjects who were adolescents at baseline. Moreover, a long-term high intake of protein concurrent with a low intake of fat was positively associated with IMT. These findings suggest that food behaviour and food choices are to some extent established as early as in childhood or adolescence and may significantly track into adulthood. Long-term adherence to traditional food choices seems to increase the risk for developing CVD, especially among men. Those with intentional or unintentional low fat diets, but with high intake of protein may also be at increased risk for CVD. The findings offer practical, food-based information on the relationship between diet and CVD and encourage further use of the whole-diet approach in epidemiological research. The results support earlier findings that long-term food choices play a role in the development of CVD. The apparent influence of childhood habits is important to bear in mind when planning educational strategies for the primary prevention of CVD. Further studies on food choices over the entire lifespan are needed.