Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.

Categorizations of physical gesture in piano teaching: A preliminary enquiry

The significance of the “physicality” involved in learning to play a musical instrument and the essential role of teachers are areas in need of research. This article explores the role of gesture within teacher–student communicative interaction in one-to-one piano lessons. Three teachers were required to teach a pre-selected repertoire of two contrasting pieces to three students studying piano grade 1. The data was collected by video recordings of piano lessons and analysis based on the type and frequency of gestures employed by teachers in association to teaching behaviours specifying where gestures fit under (or evade) predefined classifications. Spontaneous co-musical gestures were observed in the process of piano tuition emerging with similar general communicative purposes as spontaneous co-verbal gestures and were essential for the process of musical communication between teachers and students. Observed frequencies of categorized gestures varied significantly between different teaching behaviours and between the three teachers. Parallels established between co-verbal and co-musical spontaneous gestures lead to an argument for extension of McNeill’s (2005) ideas of imagery–language–dialectic to imagery–music–dialectic with relevant implications for piano pedagogy and fields of study invested in musical communication.

Integrating allowable design strains in composites with whole life value

Fibre-Reinforced Plastics (FRPs) have been used in civil aerospace vehicles for decades. The current state-of-the-art in airframe design and manufacture results in approximately half the airframe mass attributable to FRP materials. The continual increase in the use of FRP materials over metallic alloys is attributable to the material's superior specific strength and stiffness, fatigue performance and corrosion resistance. However, the full potential of these materials has yet to be exploited as analysis methods to predict physical failure with equal accuracy and robustness are not yet available. The result is a conservative approach to design, but one that can bring benefit via increased inspection intervals and reduced cost over the vehicle life. The challenge is that the methods used in practice are based on empirical tests and real relationships and drivers are difficult to see in this complex process and so the trade-off decision is challenging and uncertain. The aim of this feasibility study was to scope a viable process which could help develop some rules and relationships based on the fundamental mechanics of composite material and the economics of production and operation, which would enhance understanding of the role and impact of design allowables across the life of a composite structure.

“A quiet still voice that just touches”: music’s relevance for adults living with life-threatening cancer diagnoses.

Purpose
Music has historically aided health and loss-adaptation, however, cancer patients’ experience of music for self-care is not well understood. This study examines adult cancer patients’ views about music’s role before and after diagnosis.
Methods
Constructivist approach, with grounded theory informed design using convenience, snowball and theoretical sampling. Patients from Australian metropolitan cancer and hospice settings completed demographic questionnaires and participated in semi-structured interviews. Qualitative inter-rater reliability was applied.
Results
Fifty-two patients reported comparable time spent experiencing music pre-post diagnosis. Music may remain incidental; however, many patients adapt music usage to ameliorate cancer’s aversive effects. Patients often draw from their musical lives and explore unfamiliar music to: remain connected with pre-illness identities; strengthen capacity for enduring treatment, ongoing survival (even when knowing “you’re going to die”), or facing death; reframe upended worlds; and live enriched lives. Patients can ascribe human or physical properties to music when describing its transformative effects. Familiar lyrics maybe reinterpreted, and patients’ intensified emotional reactions to music can reflect their threatened mortality. Sometimes music becomes inaccessible, elusive, and/or intensifies distress and is avoided. Families’, friends’ and professionals’ recognition of patients’ altered musical lives and music-based suggestions can extend patients’ use of music for self-care.
Conclusion
Health professionals can support patients by inquiring about their music behaviours and recognising that altered music usage may signify vulnerability. Although commonly recommended, hospital concerts and music broadcasts need sensitive delivery. Patients’ preferred music should be available in diagnostic, treatment and palliative settings because it can promote endurance and life enrichment.

Prevalence of refractive error in Europe: the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) Consortium

To estimate the prevalence of refractive error in adults across Europe. Refractive data (mean spherical equivalent) collected between 1990 and 2013 from fifteen population-based cohort and cross-sectional studies of the European Eye Epidemiology (E³) Consortium were combined in a random effects meta-analysis stratified by 5-year age intervals and gender. Participants were excluded if they were identified as having had cataract surgery, retinal detachment, refractive surgery or other factors that might influence refraction. Estimates of refractive error prevalence were obtained including the following classifications: myopia ≤−0.75 diopters (D), high myopia ≤−6D, hyperopia ≥1D and astigmatism ≥1D. Meta-analysis of refractive error was performed for 61,946 individuals from fifteen studies with median age ranging from 44 to 81 and minimal ethnic variation (98 % European ancestry). The age-standardised prevalences (using the 2010 European Standard Population, limited to those ≥25 and <90 years old) were: myopia 30.6 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 30.4–30.9], high myopia 2.7 % (95 % CI 2.69–2.73), hyperopia 25.2 % (95 % CI 25.0–25.4) and astigmatism 23.9 % (95 % CI 23.7–24.1). Age-specific estimates revealed a high prevalence of myopia in younger participants [47.2 % (CI 41.8–52.5) in 25–29 years-olds]. Refractive error affects just over a half of European adults. The greatest burden of refractive error is due to myopia, with high prevalence rates in young adults. Using the 2010 European population estimates, we estimate there are 227.2 million people with myopia across Europe.

Efficacy of Wind Power in Mitigation of CO2 Emission from the Irish Electrical Grid

The results in this paper are based on a data set containing system demand, wind generation and CO2 emission between Jan 2010 and Sep 2013. The data was recorded at 15 minute intervals and reflects the macroscopic operation of the Republic of Ireland's electrical grid. The data was analyzed by investigating how daily wind generation effected daily CO2 emission across multiple days with equivalent daily demand. A figure for wind turbine efficiency was determined by dividing the CO2 mitigation potential of wind power by the CO2 intensity of the grid; both in units of Tonnes of CO2 per MWh. The yearly wind power efficiency appears to have increased by 5.6% per year, now standing around 90%. Over the four years significant regularity was observed in the profiles of wind turbine efficiency against daily demand. It appears that the efficiency profile has moved in recent years so that maximum efficiency coincides with most frequent demand.

Inference in Polytrees with Sets of Probabilities

Inferences in directed acyclic graphs associated with probability intervals and sets of probabilities are NP-hard, even for polytrees. We propose: 1) an improvement on Tessem’s A/R algorithm for inferences on polytrees associated with probability intervals; 2) a new algorithm for approximate inferences based on local search; 3) branch-and-bound algorithms that combine the previous techniques. The first two algorithms produce complementary approximate solutions, while branch-and-bound procedures can generate either exact or approximate solutions. We report improvements on existing techniques for inference with probability sets and intervals, in some cases reducing computational effort by several orders of magnitude.

Piano e funcionalidade: proposta para um modelo generativo

A expressão “Piano Funcional” designa a instrução, em grupo reduzido, em diversas competências funcionais – não incluídas no ensino tradicional europeu, mais orientado para a execução virtuosista. O estudo funcional do piano activa no estudante processos de relacionamento, síntese e generalização sobre diversos aspectos da actividade musical, contribuindo para uma consciência aprofundada da linguagem e alimentando a flexibilidade e autonomia dos educandos. O objectivo do Piano Funcional é o de permitir a aquisição de uma funcionalidade musical plena, através da apropriação e controlo da linguagem musical. O objectivo do presente trabalho é o de propor um Modelo Generativo de Piano Funcional. O modelo generativo proposto parte de um levantamento e análise crítica das dinâmicas que limitam a eficácia do sistema de ensino, nomeadamente: a predominância da descodificação simbólica em detrimento da oralidade e do movimento, o favorecimento do mecanicismo e a valorização excessiva da prática interpretativa. Tais dinâmicas conduzem frequentemente ao sacrifício das competências criativas na formação dos músicos. Propõe-se assim a adopção de um grupo de “novos paradigmas”, tais como: a promoção de valores funcionais; a integração de competências, e a (re)valorização do som, da criatividade, da audição e da sensorialidade como motores das aquisições musicais do aluno. O modelo articula três processos generativos, cada um deles agrupando experiências nos domínios da (i) leitura, (ii) harmonia e (iii) experimentação. O modelo de Piano Funcional é generativo, também, porque promove uma aprendizagem como construção pessoal e criativa. Adicionalmente, realizou-se um trabalho empírico que consistiu na aplicação de conceitos de Piano Funcional na aprendizagem pianística de três sujeitos, ao longo de seis meses. O objectivo deste trabalho empírico foi o de desenvolver actividades que ilustram o âmbito do Piano Funcional e o de aferir a aplicabilidade pedagógica do modelo proposto.

Avaliação do perfil de cuidado de enfermagem geriátrico em hospitais de Portugal

A transição demográfica e epidemiológica da população portuguesa tem e terá um enorme impacto na utilização dos recursos de saúde. Atualmente, as pessoas idosas representam um dos grupos etários com taxas de internamento hospitalar mais significativos. Contudo, os dados sobre a hospitalização destas pessoas têm demonstrado resultados de saúde negativos, nomeadamente, o declínio funcional e cognitivo e o risco elevado de eventos adversos. Os/as enfermeiros/as têm um papel crucial na mudança desta realidade. Deste modo, a associação entre o contexto no qual decorre o cuidado de enfermagem geriátrica e os resultados deste cuidado relativos a/os utentes, enfermeiros/as e organizações têm sido proficuamente documentados. Algumas estratégias para promover a qualidade do cuidado geriátrico e a segurança das pessoas idosas hospitalizadas consistem em avaliar e (re)criar o ambiente de trabalho geriátrico dos/as enfermeiros/as (AGTE) e capacitar e treinar estes/as profissionais no cuidado à pessoa idosa. Embora, internacionalmente, os dados demonstrem a associação entre as características de hospitais e/ou enfermeiros/as e o AGTE, não existem estudos em Portugal nesta área, bem como sobre o conhecimento e as atitudes destes profissionais no contexto hospitalar. Por conseguinte, este estudo teve como objetivos: 1) traduzir, adaptar culturalmente e validar as escalas que compõem o questionário Geriatric Institucional Assessment Proflie (GIAP) para a população portuguesa; 2) analisar o AGTE (fatores intrínsecos e extrínsecos) que apoiam ou dificultam a adoção das melhores práticas geriátricas em hospitais portugueses; 3) analisar as atitudes e conhecimento de enfermeiros/as acerca de quatro síndromes geriátricas (úlceras de pressão, distúrbio do sono, contenção física e incontinência), destacando as boas práticas e os problemas encontrados nos hospitais portugueses; 4) analisar a relação entre as variáveis demográficas, profissionais e as características dos hospitais e as escalas que compõem o GIAP – versão portuguesa; 5) conhecer as perceções de enfermeiros/as acerca do cuidado às pessoas idosas hospitalizadas e dos obstáculos enfrentados para desenvolver um cuidado de boa qualidade; e 6) analisar a relação entre a perceção de enfermeiros/as sobre o AGTE e o conhecimento e atitudes geriátricas destes profissionais em função da região e unidade de internamento. Este estudo foi desenvolvido com base num método quantitativo do tipo exploratório-descritivo, transversal, prospetivo e correlacional. A amostra foi constituída por 1.068 enfermeiros/as de cinco hospitais da região norte e centro do país. A recolha de dados foi desenvolvida através de autopreenchimento do GIAP – versão portuguesa. De entre os principais resultados destacam-se: 1) a obtenção de um instrumento válido e fiável para avaliar o AGTE e conhecimentos e atitudes geriátricas; 2) a perceção de enfermeiros/as sobre o cuidado às pessoas idosas como sendo predominantemente negativa; 3) a perceção de enfermeiros/as sobre o apoio insuficiente dos líderes hospitalares para promover um AGTE favorável; 4) o cuidado a pessoas idosas com comportamentos inadequados e o uso de recursos geriátricos como os principais fatores que influenciam a eficácia e a qualidade do cuidado geriátrico; 5) a lacuna de conhecimento e atitudes negativas de enfermeiros/as acerca das quatro síndromes geriátricas; 6) a conceptualização de um modelo sobre a associação das características de enfermeiros/as, dos hospitais do estudo e das perceções destes/as profissionais sobre o cuidado geriátrico com o AGTE e o conhecimento e atitudes geriátricos; 7) a falta de apoio familiar, a descontinuidade e a escassez de tempo para o cuidado como principais obstáculos no cuidado à pessoa idosa hospitalizada; e 8) o perfil de cuidado geriátrico nos hospitais da região norte e centro de Portugal como tendencialmente homogéneo. Os resultados deste estudo sustentam a necessidade de um maior investimento dos decisores políticos, administradores hospitalares e docentes de Enfermagem na capacitação dos/as enfermeiros/as para o cuidado geriátrico e na promoção de um AGTE mais favorável. Também oferece recomendações significativas nos domínios da decisão política, da gestão institucional e da prática profissional que devem ser alvo de uma discussão alargada entre os vários agentes com responsabilidade nestes domínios. Espera-se que este estudo possa contribuir para a promoção de um contexto favorável ao desenvolvimento de um cuidado de enfermagem geriátrica de boa qualidade às pessoas hospitalizadas.

Identidades sonoras na construção de um discurso orientado por temporalidades

O presente trabalho propõe-se investigar o papel do tempo em música a partir da prática composicional. Para isso leva em consideração uma evolução de conceitos de tempo ao longo da história humana, o entendimento recente do tempo musical e dos elementos que o compõem. São abordados, para este fim, os principais destes elementos, a quantidade e a qualidade das informações musicais, sob a perspectiva criativa. Propõe-se então uma organização conceitual que permita compreender melhor o papel do tempo em música. Em um primeiro momento dentro de obras recentes de compositores que se dedicaram ao tema e em um segundo momento dentro de um conjunto de obras originais compostas para esta tese.

Describing vocal performance of Portuguese cantadeiras of Alto Minho

Portugal has strong musical traditions, which have been perpetrated by decades through folkloristic activities. In folk groups from Alto Minho (north of Portugal), folk singing is mostly performed by cantadeiras, amateur female solo singers who learn this style orally. Their vocal characteristics are distinctive when compared with other regions of the country; however, deep understanding of these vocal practices is still missing. The present work aims at studying Alto Minho cantadeira’s vocal performance in a multidimensional perspective, envisioning social, cultural and physiological understanding of this musical style. Thus, qualitative and quantitative data analyses were carried out, to: (i) describe current performance practices, (ii) explore existent perceptions about most relevant voice features in this region, (iii) investigate physiological and acoustic properties of this style, and (iv) compare this style of singing with other non-classical singing styles of other countries. Dataset gathered involved: 78 groups whose members were telephone interviewed, 13 directors who were asked to fill in a questionnaire on performance practices, 1 cantadeira in a pilot study, 16 cantadeiras in preliminary voice recordings, 77 folk group members in listening tests, and 10 cantadeiras in multichannel recordings, including audio, ELG, air flow and intra-oral pressure signals. Data were analysed through thematic content analysis, descriptive and inferential statistics, hierarchical principal components, and multivariate linear regression models. Most representative voices have a high pitched and loud voice, with a bright timbre, predominance of chest register without excessive effort, and good text intelligibility with regional accent. High representativeness levels were obtained by few cantadeiras; these sing with high levels of subglottal pressure and vocal fold contact quotient, predominance of high spectrum energy and vocal loudness, corroborating indications of prevalence of pressed phonation. These vocal characteristics resemble belting in musical theatre and share similarities with country (USA) and ojikanje (Croatia) singing. Strategies that may contribute to the preservation of this type of singing and the vocal health of current cantadeiras are discussed, pointing at the direction of continuous education among folk groups, following practices that are already adopted elsewhere in Europe.

The Trembling Line

The Trembling Line is a film and multi-channel sound installation exploring the visual and acoustic echoes between decipherable musical gestures and abstract patterning, orchestral swells and extreme high-speed slow-motion close-ups of strings and percussion. It features a score by Leo Grant and a newly devised multichannel audio system by the Institute of Sound and Vibration Research, University of Southampton. The multi-channel speaker array is devised as an intimate sound spatialisation system in which each element of sound can be pried apart and reconfigured, to create a dynamically disorienting sonic experience. It becomes the inside of a musical instrument, an acoustic envelope or cage of sorts, through which viewers are invited to experience the film and generate cross-sensory connections and counterpoints between the sound and the visuals. Funded by a Leverhulme Artist-in-Residence Award and John Hansard Gallery, with support from ISVR and the Music Department, University of Southampton. The project provided a rare opportunity to work creatively with new cutting edge developments in sound distribution devised by ISVR, devising a new speaker array, a multi- channel surround listening sphere which spatialises the auditory experience. The sphere is currently used by ISVR for outreach and teaching purposes, and has enables future collaborations between music staff and students at Southampton University and staff and ISVR. Exhibitions: Solo exhibition at John Hansard Gallery, Southampton (Dec 2015-Jan 2016), across 5 rooms, including a retrospective of five previous film-works and a new series of photographic stills. Public lectures: two within the gallery. Reviews and interviews: Art Monthly, Studio International, The Quietus, The Wire Magazine.

Machine learning techniques for music information retrieval

Tese de doutoramento, Informática (Engenharia Informática), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015

Ecos do silêncio : para um estudo iconológico do fado

Tese de doutoramento, História (Arte Património e Restauro), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Letras, 2015