Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Improving electricity market price scenarios by means of forecasting factor models

In liberalized electricity markets, generation Companies must build an hourly bidthat is sent to the market operator. The price at which the energy will be paid is unknown during the bidding process and has to be forecast. In this work we apply forecasting factor models to this framework and study its suitability.

The yield of high-density electric source imaging in focal epilepsy

Background: EEG is the cornerstone of epilepsy diagnostics and mandatory to determine the underlying epilepsy syndrome (e.g. focal vs idiopathic generalized). However, its potential as imaging tool is still underrecognized. In the present study, we aim to determine the prerequisites of maximal benefit of electric source imaging (ESI) to localize the irritative zone in patients with focal epilepsy. Methods: 150 patients suffering from focal epilepsy and with minimum 1 year post-operative follow-up were studied prospectively by reviewers blinded to the underlying diagnosis and outcome. We evaluated the influence of two important factors on sensitivity and specificity of ESI: the number of electrodes (low resolution, LR-ESI: \30 vs. high resolution, HR-ESI: 128-256 electrodes), and the use of individual MRI (i-MRI) vs. template MRI (t-MRI) as head model.Results: ESI had a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 87% when HR-ESI with i-MRI was used. Using LR-ESI, sensitivity decreased to 68%, or even 57% when only t-MRI was available. The sensitivity of HR-ESI/i-MRI compared favorably with those of MRI (76%), PET (69%) and ictal/interictal SPECT (64%).Interpretation: This study on a large patient group shows excellent sensitivity and specificity of ESI if 128 EEG channels or more are used for ESI and if the results are co-registered to the patient's individual MRI. Localization precision is as high as or even higher than established brain imaging techniques, providing excellent costeffectiveness in epilepsy evaluation. HR-ESI appears to be a valuable additional imaging tool, given that larger electrode arrays are easily and rapidly applied with modern EEG equipment and that structural MRI is nearly always available for these patients.

Optimal management of microgrids

Desenvolupament dels models matemàtics necessaris per a controlar de forma òptima la microxarxa existent als laboratoris del Institut de Recerca en Energia de Catalunya. Els algoritmes s'implementaran per tal de simular el comportament i posteriorment es programaran directament sobre els elements de la microxarxa per verificar el seu correcte funcionament.. Desenvolupament dels models matemàtics necessaris per a controlar de forma òptima la microxarxa existent als laboratoris del Institut de Recerca en Energia de Catalunya. Els algoritmes s'implementaran per tal de simular el comportament i posteriorment es programaran directament sobre els elements de la microxarxa per verificar el seu correcte funcionament.

BK DNA viral load in plasma: evidence for an association with hemorrhagic cystitis in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant recipients.

We performed a case-control study to determine the association of BK plasma viremia with hemorrhagic cystitis (HC) in hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients. Thirty cases of HC (14 of which occurred after platelet engraftment with documented BK viruria [BK-HC]) were compared with matched controls. Weekly plasma samples were tested for BK virus DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). BK viremia detected before or during the disease was independently associated with HC (adjusted odds ratio = 30, P < .001); BK viremia was even important before clinical symptoms of HC occurred (odds ratio = 11, P < .001). Cases of HC and BK-HC had a significantly higher peak of BK plasma viral load than controls. BK virus was detected by in situ hybridization in bladder biopsies of 2 cases with severe HC and long-lasting BK viremia. BK virus seems to play a role in the development of HC and quantitative detection of BK DNA in plasma appears to be a marker of BK virus disease in HCT recipients.

IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 and viral load predict virological response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C.

Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2011; 33: 1162-1172 SUMMARY: Background  Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and the identification of the predictors of response to antiviral therapy is an important clinical issue. Aim  To determine the independent contribution of factors including IL28B polymorphisms, IFN-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score in predicting response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Methods  Multivariate analysis of factors predicting rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with peginterferon alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicentre study. Results  Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (OR 11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age <40 years (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age <40 years (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99) or genotype 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67). Conclusions  In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pre-treatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.

Early stage disc degeneration does not have an appreciable affect on stiffness and load transfer following vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty.

Vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty have been reported to alter the mechanical behavior of the treated and adjacent-level segments, and have been suggested to increase the risk for adjacent-level fractures. The intervertebral disc (IVD) plays an important role in the mechanical behavior of vertebral motion segments. Comparisons between normal and degenerative IVD motion segments following cement augmentation have yet to be reported. A microstructural finite element model of a degenerative IVD motion segment was constructed from micro-CT images. Microdamage within the vertebral body trabecular structure was used to simulate a slightly (I = 83.5% of intact stiffness), moderately (II = 57.8% of intact stiffness), and severely (III = 16.0% of intact stiffness) damaged motion segment. Six variable geometry single-segment cement repair strategies (models A-F) were studied at each damage level (I-III). IVD and bone stresses, and motion segment stiffness, were compared with the intact and baseline damage models (untreated), as well as, previous findings using normal IVD models with the same repair strategies. Overall, small differences were observed in motion segment stiffness and average stresses between the degenerative and normal disc repair models. We did however observe a reduction in endplate bulge and a redistribution in the microstructural tissue level stresses across both endplates and in the treated segment following early stage IVD degeneration. The cement augmentation strategy placing bone cement along the periphery of the vertebra (model E) proved to be the most advantageous in treating the degenerative IVD models by showing larger reductions in the average bone stresses (vertebral and endplate) as compared to the normal IVD models. Furthermore, only this repair strategy, and the complete cement fill strategy (model F), were able to restore the slightly damaged (I) motion segment stiffness above pre-damaged (intact) levels. Early stage IVD degeneration does not have an appreciable effect in motion segment stiffness and average stresses in the treated and adjacent-level segments following vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty. Placing bone cement in the periphery of the damaged vertebra in a degenerative IVD motion segment, minimizes load transfer, and may reduce the likelihood of adjacent-level fractures.

When genetic load does not correlate with phenotypic spectrum: lessons from the GnRH receptor (GNRHR).

CONTEXT: A broad spectrum of GnRH-deficient phenotypes has been identified in individuals with both mono- and biallelic GNRHR mutations. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to determine the correlation between the severity of the reproductive phenotype(s) and the number and functional severity of rare sequence variants in GNRHR. SUBJECTS: Eight hundred sixty-three probands with different forms of GnRH deficiency, 46 family members and 422 controls were screened for GNRHR mutations. The 70 subjects (32 patients and 38 family members) harboring mutations were divided into four groups (G1-G4) based on the functional severity of the mutations (complete or partial loss of function) and the number of affected alleles (monoallelic or biallelic) with mutations, and these classes were mapped on their clinical phenotypes. RESULTS: The prevalence of heterozygous rare sequence variants in GNRHR was significantly higher in probands vs. controls (P < 0.01). Among the G1-G3 groups (homozygous subjects with successively decreasing severity and number of mutations), the hypogonadotropic phenotype related to their genetic load. In contrast, subjects in G4, with only monoallelic mutations, demonstrated a greater diversity of clinical phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with GnRH deficiency and biallelic mutations in GNRHR, genetic burden defined by severity and dose is associated with clinical phenotype. In contrast, for patients with monoallelic GNRHR mutations this correlation does not hold. Taken together, these data indicate that as-yet-unidentified genetic and/or environmental factors may combine with singly mutated GNRHR alleles to produce reproductive phenotypes.

Soil compaction and eucalyptus growth in response to forwarder traffic intensity and load

During timber exploitation in forest stands harvesting machines pass repeatedly along the same track and can cause soil compaction, which leads to soil erosion and restricted tree root growth. The level of soil compaction depends on the number of passes and weight of the wood load. This paper aimed to evaluate soil compaction and eucalyptus growth as affected by the number of passes and wood load of a forwarder. The study was carried out in Santa Maria de Itabira county, Minas Gerais State - Brazil, on a seven-year-old eucalyptus stand planted on an Oxisol. The trees were felled by chainsaw and manually removed. Plots of 144 m² (four rows 12 m long in a 3 x 2 m spacing) were then marked off for the conduction of two trials. The first tested the traffic intensity of a forwarder which weighed 11,900 kg and carried 12 m³ wood (density of 480 kg m-3) and passed 2, 4, and 8 times along the same track. In the second trial, the forwarder carried loads of 4, 8, and 12 m³ of wood, and the machine was driven four times along the same track. In each plot, the passes affected four rows. Eucalyptus was planted in 30 x 30 x 30 cm holes on the compacted tracks. The soil in the area is clayey (470 clay and 440 g kg-1 sand content) and at depths of 0-5 cm and 5-10 cm, respectively, soil organic carbon was 406 and 272 g kg-1 and the moisture content during the trial 248 and 249 g kg-1. These layers were assessed for soil bulk density and water-stable aggregates. The infiltration rate was measured by a cylinder infiltrometer. After 441 days the measurements were repeated, with additional analyses of: soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, N-NH4+, N-NO3-, porosity, and penetration resistance. Tree height, stem diameter, and stem dry matter were measured. Forwarder traffic increased soil compaction, resistance to penetration and microporosity while it reduced the geometric mean diameter, total porosity, macroporosity and infiltration rate. Stem dry matter yield and tree height were not affected by soil compaction. Two passes of the forwarder were enough to cause the disturbances at the highest levels. The compaction effects were still persistent 441 days after forwarder traffic.

Comparison of estimation methods of soil strength in five soils

In agriculture, the soil strength is used to describe the susceptibility to deformation by pressure caused by agricultural machine. The purpose of this study was to compare different methods for estimating the inherent soil strength and to identify their suitability for the evaluation of load support capacity, compaction susceptibility and root growth. The physical, chemical, mineralogical and intrinsic strength properties of seven soil samples, collected from five sampling pits at different locations in Brazil, were measured. Four clay (CS) and three sandy clay loam (SCL) soils were used. The clay soils were collected on a farm in Santo Ângelo, RS (28 º 16 ' 16 '' S; 54 º 13 ' 11 '' W 290 m); A and B horizons at the Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG (21 º 13 ' 47 '' S; 44 º 58 ' 6'' W; 918 m) and on the farm Sygenta, in Uberlandia, MG (18 º 58 ' 37 '' S; 48 º 12 ' 05 '' W 866 m). The sandy clay loam soils were collected in Aracruz, ES (19 º 47 ' 10 '' S; 40 º 16 ' 29 '' W 81 m), and on the farm Xavier, Lavras, MG (21 º 13 ' 24 '' S; 45 º 05 ' 00 '' W; 844 m). Soil strength was estimated based on measurements of: (a) a pneumatic consolidometer, (b) manual pocket (non-rotating) penetrometer; and (c) automatic (rotating) penetrometer. The results of soil strength properties were similar by the three methods. The soil structure had a significant influence on soil strength. Results of measurements with both the manual pocket and the electric penetrometer were similar, emphasizing the influence of soil texture. The data showed that, to enhance the reliability of predictions of preconsolidation pressure by penetrometers, it is better to separate the soils into the different classes, rather than analyze them jointly. It can be concluded that the consolidometer method, although expensive, is the best when evaluations of load support capacity and compaction susceptibility of soil samples are desired.

Access by Capacity and Peak-Load Pricing

Several European telecommunications regulatory agencies have recently introduced a fixed capacity charge (flat rate) to regulate access to the incumbent's network. The purpose of this paper is to show that the optimal capacity charge and the optimal access-minute charge analysed by Armstrong, Doyle, and Vickers (1996) have a similar structure and imply the same payment for the entrant. I extend the analysis tothe case where there is a competitor with market power. In this case, the optimalcapacity charge should be modified to avoid that the entrant cream-skims the market,fixing a longer or a shorter peak period than the optimal. Finally, I consider a multiproduct setting, where the effect of the product differentiation is exacerbated.

Multiple edges of a quantum Hall system in a strong electric

In this paper we show that if the electrons in a quantum Hall sample are subjected to a constant electric field in the plane of the material, comparable in magnitude to the background magnetic field on the system of electrons, a multiplicity of edge states localized at different regions of space is produced in the sample. The actions governing the dynamics of these edge states are obtained starting from the well-known Schrödinger field theory for a system of nonrelativistic electrons, where on top of the constant background electric and magnetic fields, the electrons are further subject to slowly varying weak electromagnetic fields. In the regions between the edges, dubbed as the "bulk," the fermions can be integrated out entirely and the dynamics expressed in terms of a local effective action involving the slowly varying electromagnetic potentials. It is further shown how the bulk action is gauge noninvariant in a particular way, and how the edge states conspire to restore the U(1) electromagnetic gauge invariance of the system. In the edge action we obtain a heretofore unnoticed gauge-invariant term that depends on the particular edge. We argue that this term may be detected experimentally as different edges respond differently to a monochromatic probe due to this term

Different PTH response to oral peptone load and oral calcium load in patients with normocalcemic primary hyperparathyroidism, primary hyperparathyroidism, and healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND: Normocalcemic primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT-N) is a condition that may have similar long-term implications to primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT); however, differential diagnosis and treatment for parathyroid disorders are not clearly defined. We investigated the effect of an oral peptone and an oral calcium load on calcium-regulating hormones in PHPT-N compared with PHPT and healthy controls to provide a new potential diagnostic tool. DESIGN: Case-control study. METHODS: We evaluated serum gastrin, PTH, ionized calcium, and phosphate responses to oral calcium (1 g) and peptone (10 g) load in 22 PHPT and 20 PHPT-N patients matched for PTH serum values. Moreover, 30 healthy subjects were enrolled as controls. In 12 patients for each group, we also performed the oral peptone test adding aluminum hydroxide (AH) to suppress phosphate absorption. RESULTS: In PHPT patients, PTH increased significantly 30 min after the oral peptone load, while no significant increase was found in PHPT-N and controls. After oral calcium load, PTH remained stable in PHPT while it decreased dramatically in PHPT-N patients, and ionized calcium increased significantly in each of the three groups. Peptones plus AH induced a blunted PTH increase in the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the marked difference in PTH response elicited by peptones in PHPT compared with PHPT-N, we suggest that the oral peptone test could be added to the diagnostic evaluation of PHPT patients. In case of absent response to peptones, patients should have their serum calcium levels assessed twice a year in accordance with recent guidelines.