La disonancia cognitiva y trampa de la memoria en decisiones de Inversión: caso colombiano

Este documento es el resultado de una investigación bajo el enfoque de Finanzas Corporativas del Comportamiento, disciplina relevante en el mundo financiero desde el 2002 y que hasta el momento poco se ha investigado en Colombia. Esta difiere del supuesto tradicional de la racionalidad de los individuos en la toma de decisiones financieras, ya que pueden ser influenciadas por sesgos cognitivos y emocionales que la teoría ortodoxa no tiene en cuenta en sus supuestos. Esta investigación busca indagar, desde el punto de vista conceptual y mediante el análisis de resultados de estudio de campo con operadores del mercado bursátil colombiano, sobre la posible presencia de elementos comportamentales en las decisiones de inversión. Los sesgos que se evaluaron fueron: disonancia cognitiva, heurístico de disponibilidad y sesgo de confirmación. Para la recolección de fuentes primarias, una encuesta fue enviada a los operadores Colombianos, categorizados en operadores con experiencia y operadores jóvenes. Después del filtro, 142 encuestas fueron seleccionadas para el análisis. Los principales hallazgos fueron que los jóvenes son más propensos a experimentar disonancia cognitiva y heurístico de disponibilidad y en ambas categorías, los sesgos analizados influencian medianamente la toma de decisiones de inversión.

Pulsioximetría de pacientes en hemodiálisis, de la unidad de terapia renal – fundación cardioinfantil, análisis para establecer recomendaciones

Introducción. En Colombia, el 80% de los pacientes con enfermedad renal crónica en hemodiálisis tienen fístula arteriovenosa periférica (FAV) que asegura el flujo de sangre durante la hemodiálisis (1), la variabilidad en el flujo de sangre en el brazo de la FAV hacia la parte distal, puede afectar la lectura de la oximetría de pulso (SpO2) (2), llevando a la toma de decisiones equivocadas por el personal de salud. El objetivo de este estudio es aclarar si existe diferencia entre la SpO2 del brazo de la FAV y el brazo contralateral. Materiales y métodos. Se realizó un estudio de correlación entre los valores de SpO2 del brazo con FAV contra el brazo sin FAV, de 40 pacientes que asistieron a hemodiálisis. La recolección de los datos se llevó a cabo, con un formato que incluyó el resultado de la pulsioximetria y variables asociadas, antes, durante y después de la hemodiálisis. Se comparó la mediana de los deltas de las diferencias con pruebas estadísticas T Student – Mann Whitney, aceptando un valor significativo de p < 0,05. Resultados. No se encontraron diferencias estadísticamente significativas de la SpO2 entre el brazo con FAV y el brazo sin FAV, antes, durante y después de la diálisis, sin embargo si se apreció una correlación positiva estadísticamente significativa. Conclusiones. Se encontró correlación positiva estadísticamente significativa, donde no hubo diferencias en el resultado la pulsioximetría entre el brazo con FAV y brazo sin FAV, por lo tanto es válido tomar la pulsioximetría en cualquiera de los brazos.

Attention and selection behavior on ‘universal search’ result pages

The ISO norm line 9241 states some criteria for ergonomics of human system interaction. In markets with a huge variety of offers and little possibility of differentiation, providers can gain a decisive competitive advantage by user oriented interfaces. A precondition for this is that relevant information can be obtained for entrepreneurial decisions in this regard. To test how users of universal search result pages use those pages and pay attention to different elements, an eye tracking experiment with a mixed design has been developed. Twenty subjects were confronted with search engine result pages (SERPs) and were instructed to make a decision while conditions “national vs. international city” and “with vs. without miniaturized Google map” were used. Different parameters like fixation count, duration and time to first fixation were computed from the eye tracking raw data and supplemented by click rate data as well as data from questionnaires. Results of this pilot study revealed some remarkable facts like a vampire effect on miniaturized Google maps. Furthermore, Google maps did not shorten the process of decision making, Google ads were not fixated, visual attention on SERPs was influenced by position of the elements on the SERP and by the users’ familiarity with the search target. These results support the theory of Amount of Invested Mental Effort (AIME) and give providers empirical evidence to take users’ expectations into account. Furthermore, the results indicated that the task oriented goal mode of participants was a moderator for the attention spent on ads. Most important, SERPs with images attracted the viewers’ attention much longer than those without images. This unique selling proposition may lead to a distortion of competition on markets.

Skill Rating by Bayesian Inference

Systems Engineering often involves computer modelling the behaviour of proposed systems and their components. Where a component is human, fallibility must be modelled by a stochastic agent. The identification of a model of decision-making over quantifiable options is investigated using the game-domain of Chess. Bayesian methods are used to infer the distribution of players’ skill levels from the moves they play rather than from their competitive results. The approach is used on large sets of games by players across a broad FIDE Elo range, and is in principle applicable to any scenario where high-value decisions are being made under pressure.

Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

Longevity, early emergence and body size in a pollinating fig wasp - implications for stability in a fig-pollinator mutualism

1. Fig trees (Ficus) are pollinated only by agaonid wasps, whose larvae also gall fig ovules. Each ovule develops into either a seed (when pollinated) or a wasp (when an egg is also laid inside) but not both. 2. Ovipositing wasps (foundresses) favour ovules near the centre of the enclosed inflorescence (syconium or 'fig'), leaving ovules near the outer wall to develop into seeds. This spatial stratification of wasps and seeds ensures reproduction in both partners, and thereby enables mutualism persistence. However, the mechanism(s) responsible remain(s) unknown. 3. Theory shows that foundresses will search for increasingly rare inner ovules and ignore outer ovules, as long as ovipositing in outer ovules is sufficiently slow and/or if inner ovules confer greater fitness to wasps. The fig-pollinator mutualism can therefore be stabilized by strong time constraints on foundresses and by offspring fitness gradients over variation in ovule position. 4. Female fig wasps cannot leave their galls without male assistance. We found that females in outer ovules were unlikely to be released. Inner ovules thus have added value to foundresses, because their female offspring are more likely to mate and disperse. 5. For those offspring that did emerge, gall position (inner/outer) and body size did not influence the order in which female pollinators exited syconia, nor did early emerging wasps enjoy increased life spans. 6. We also found that the life spans of female wasps nearly doubled when given access to moisture. We suggest that conflict resolution in the fig-pollinator mutualism may thus be influenced by tropical seasonality, because wasps may be less able to over-exploit ovules in dry periods due to time constraints.

Theory and practice in value management: a reply to Ellis et al (2005)

The constructivist model of 'soft' value management (VM) is contrasted with the VM discourse appropriated by cost consultants who operate from within UK quantity surveying (QS) practices. The enactment of VM by cost consultants is shaped by the institutional context within which they operate and is not necessarily representative of VM practice per se. Opportunities to perform VM during the formative stages of design are further constrained by the positivistic rhetoric that such practitioners use to conceptualize and promote their services. The complex interplay between VM theory and practice is highlighted and analysed from a non-deterministic perspective. Codified models of 'best practice' are seen to be socially constructed and legitimized through human interaction in the context of interorganizational networks. Published methodologies are seen to inform practice in only a loose and indirect manner, with extensive scope for localized improvization. New insights into the relationship between VM theory and practice are derived from the dramaturgical metaphor. The social reality of VM is seen to be constituted through scripts and performances, both of which are continuously contested across organizational arenas. It is concluded that VM defies universal definition and is conceptualized and enacted differently across different localized contexts.

Using bargaining-game theory for negotiating concession period for BOT-type contract

This paper extends the build-operate-transfer (BOT) concession model (BOTCcM) to a new method for identifying a concession period by using bargaining-game theory. Concession period is one of the most important decision variables in arranging a BOT-type contract, and there are few methodologies available for helping to determine the value of this variable. The BOTCcM presents an alternative method by which a group of concession period solutions are produced. Nevertheless, a typical weakness in using BOTCcM is that the model cannot recommend a specific time span for concessionary. This paper introduces a new method called BOT bargaining concession model (BOTBaC) to enable the identification of a specific concession period, which takes into account the bargaining behavior of the two parties concerned in engaging a BOT contract, namely, the investor and the government concerned. The application of BOTBaC is demonstrated through using an example case.

A self-structured adaptive decision feedback equalizer

In a decision feedback equalizer (DFE), the structural parameters, including the decision delay, the feedforward filter (FFF), and feedback filter (FBF) lengths, must be carefully chosen, as they greatly influence the performance. Although the FBF length can be set as the channel memory, there is no closed-form expression for the FFF length and decision delay. In this letter, first we analytically show that the two-dimensional search for the optimum FFF length and decision delay can be simplified to a one-dimensional search and then describe a new adaptive DFE where the optimum structural parameters can be self-adapted.

Adapting to new challenges: extension theory and practice for the 21st century

Twenty first century challenges facing agriculture include climate change, threats to food security for a growing population and downward economic pressures on rural livelihoods. Addressing these challenges will require innovation in extension theory, policy and education, at a time when the dominance of the state in the provision of knowledge and information services to farmers and rural entrepreneurs continues to decline. This paper suggests that extension theory is catching up with and helping us to understand innovative extension practice, and therefore provides a platform for improving rural development policies and strategies. Innovation is now less likely to be spoken of as something to be passed on to farmers, than as a continuing process of creativity and adaptation that can be nurtured and sustained. Innovation systems and innovation platforms are concepts that recognise the multiple factors that lead to farmers’ developing, adapting and applying new ideas and the importance of linking all actors in the value chain to ensure producers can access appropriate information and advice for decision making at all stages in the production process. Concepts of social learning, group development and solidarity, social capital, collective action and empowerment all help to explain and therefore to apply more effectively group extension approaches in building confidence and sustaining innovation. A challenge facing educators is to ensure the curricula for aspiring extension professionals in our higher education institutions are regularly reviewed and keep up with current and future developments in theory, policy and practice.

A comparison of extreme value theory approaches for determining value at risk

This paper compares a number of different extreme value models for determining the value at risk (VaR) of three LIFFE futures contracts. A semi-nonparametric approach is also proposed, where the tail events are modeled using the generalised Pareto distribution, and normal market conditions are captured by the empirical distribution function. The value at risk estimates from this approach are compared with those of standard nonparametric extreme value tail estimation approaches, with a small sample bias-corrected extreme value approach, and with those calculated from bootstrapping the unconditional density and bootstrapping from a GARCH(1,1) model. The results indicate that, for a holdout sample, the proposed semi-nonparametric extreme value approach yields superior results to other methods, but the small sample tail index technique is also accurate.