Las potencias subregionales en el sistema internacional de posguerra fría: ¿nuevos actores en la política internacional?

En trabajos anteriores, hemos avanzado en la identificación y diferenciación de tres categorías de potencias: potencias mundiales, potencias medias y potencias regionales. Pero, más allá de las potencias mundiales y las potencias medias que se encuentran en el centro del sistema-mundial, y las potencias regionales que se ubican en la semiperiferia, ¿es posible hablar de potencias que se encuentren en la periferia? Como se trata de Estados periféricos, ¿pueden ser calificados como “potencias”? ¿En qué radicaría su relevancia y envergadura? Dichas “potencias” ¿pueden ser agrupadas en una nueva categoría? De ser así ¿qué características compartirían? El objetivo de este documento es proponer una nueva  categoría de potencias en el sistema internacional: las potencias subregionales.

The European Union Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia: The Limitations of the Opening towards the East

This article intends to study the evolution of the European Union foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus and Central Area throughout the Post-Cold War era. The aim is to analyze Brussels’ fundamental interests and limitations in the area, the strategies it has implemented in the last few years, and the extent to which the EU has been able to undermine the regional hegemons’ traditional supremacy. As will be highlighted, the Community’s chronic weaknesses, the local determination to preserve sovereignty and an increasing international geopolitical competition undermine any European aspiration to become a pre-eminent actor at the heart of the Eurasian continent in the near future.

TTIP vs. BRICS: Consequences on Geopolitics and Internacional Relations of the XXIst. Century

The TTIP is a proposal on negotiations between the EU and the USA in order to create the largest free international trade area by extension, population and volume of trade of all existing ones. In our view, TTIP would be the geoeconomic answer to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), as a comercial, geopolitical and cooperation space in other areas such as the military, in both that TTIP reproduce on a commercial scale the political and military alliance already existing between good part of the EU and USA by the NATO. In this paper we will try to explain why the possible rivalry between TTIP and BRICS would reproduce in the XXIst. Century the schemes of “Cold War” inherited from XXth. Century, that in turn reproduced the geopolitical confrontations arising from the theory of Haltford McKinder pivot area and the traditional opposition between thalassocratic imperialisms (government on the seas and oceans) and tellurocratic imperialisms (government on an enormous portion of emerged land). Likewise, we will try to show why, at a dialectic of States level, the most populated, territorially extensive and with greater amount of resources political societies will be those that have the greatest ability to impose a particular model of international relations and its geopolitical hegemony on a universal scale in response to this viable confrontation between TTIP, plus TTP, vs. BRICS.

El PCE y el movimiento comunista internacional (1969-1977)

El artículo se centra en la actividad internacional del Partido Comunista de España (PCE) desde las secuelas de la represión de la Primavera de Praga hasta 1977. Fue un período caracterizado por el principio del declive definitivo del movimiento comunista internacional. El análisis abarca múltiples cuestiones. Examina las crecientes críticas del PCE hacia el modelo soviético, y sus repercusiones en las relaciones entre el partido liderado por Santiago Carrillo y el movimiento comunista. Además, el artículo explora el intento del PCE de promover un nuevo tipo de internacionalismo en Europa occidental, auspiciando una renovada colaboración entre comunistas y socialistas y aprovechando las condiciones brindadas por la distensión. En este contexto tuvo lugar el surgimiento del eurocomunismo, que el ensayo analiza ilustrando los factores internos y externos que determinaron su crisis en la segunda mitad de los setenta.

El multilateralismo como intervencionismo. Estados Unidos y la Sociedad de Naciones en América Latina (1930-1946)

Este artículo analiza una dinámica de intervenciones de Estados Unidos en América Latina que no ha atraído suficientemente la atención de los historiadores. En los años treinta y cuarenta, cuando Europa se hundía en una nueva confrontación bélica, ciertos sectores del gobierno y del mundo empresarial norteamericano intentaron articular una nueva relación con los países del continente basada en una propuesta de multilateralismo que se había configurado dentro de la Sociedad de Naciones (SN). Estos estadounidenses intentaron establecer una dinámica de relaciones triangulares con los gobiernos latinoamericanos y los organismos técnicos de la SN. Gracias a ello, como se mostrará en este artículo para el caso del funcionamiento del Comité Fiscal de la Sociedad de Naciones, los latinoamericanos fueron capaces de influir en el tipo de políticas que debían emanar de esta relación triangular. La importancia de esta historia no es menor. La relación triangular entre Estados Unidos, América Latina y la SN sirvió de base para la reconstrucción de la gobernanza global liderada por los Estados Unidos tras la guerra.

Russia and the Global Security Strategy of the European Union

The present article reviews the relations between the EU and Russia in the past decade and shows the deterioration of the bilateral relations. The Putin´s Russia has become a very active geostrategic player, with a worrying behaviour, breaking balances in the international scene established since the end of the Cold War. Russia is a priority in the Foreign and Security Policy of the European Global Security Strategy, but has become also a clear competitor. This last aspect is not sufficiently underlined in the Strategy and thus the strategic framework is not clear. In parallel, it is not clear in the Strategy which are the tools the EU has to defend its neighbourhood when their independence, sovereignty or territorial defence may be put in question. This question goes beyond the support to the resilience of those neighbours.

Desarrollismo y el progreso en la Argentina : un aporte marxista

El desarrollismo como ideología política enervó buena parte de la trama latinoamericana de las décadas de 1950 y de 1960. Si bien muchas veces se la puede entender como la mera adaptación del keynesianismo y la economía del desarrollo a las condiciones regionales, sus fuentes ideológicas resultaron mucho más complejas. Su configuración híbrida contuvo una mezcla de nacionalismo, economía del desarrollo, junto con marxismo y positivismo. Entre los ideólogos del desarrollismo argentino, nos interesa estudiar el aporte de un intelectual de formación leninista ortodoxa, Juan José Real, cuya participación resultaría problemática en el contexto de la agudización de la llamada Guerra Fría. En una mirada que combinaba la idea de ley aplicada a la historia y la voluntad como herramienta de cambio, Real sostenía que la etapa histórica que vivía el país requería la formación de un frente político cuyo objetivo debería ser la profundización del desarrollo capitalista, con la colaboración del capital extranjero, como la etapa necesaria para completar la formación de una nación, bajo el liderazgo de una burguesía modernizante.

Beyond the Acronyms: Sport Diplomacy and the Classification of the International Olympic Committee

Diplomacy often finds itself reduced to actions centred on states. However, after the Cold War, international relations and diplomacy have expanded with different actors growing into significant roles, particularly in the increase of diplomatic relations in the context of sport. The classification and significance of other actors remains under-researched in relation to sport, with literature focusing more on the growth of new and varying practices of diplomacy. This analysis contends that there is a need to interrogate fundamental components of modern diplomacy—with the actor being the focus—more specifically the classification of sports organisations in diplomacy. It is relevant as a more accurate understanding of sports organisations will contribute to how diplomatic studies can analyse and evaluate modern diplomacy within the context of sport. The International Olympic Committee is the actor used to illustrate how problematic classifications currently in the academic literature translate into weak and reduced analysis and evaluation of its role and significance in diplomacy. As counterpoint, this analysis proposes an analytical framework of socio-legal theory that harnesses legal regulation as a benchmark to classify an actor’s capacity within a society. In consequence, the IOC is as an active and significant contributor to the ever expanding and complex diplomatic environment and wider society.

Suomen turvallisuuspoliittisen ratkaisun lähtökohtia

Suomi luopui puolueettomuuspolitiikasta turvallisuuspoliittisena linjanaan kun se liittyi Euroopan unioniin ennen kaikkea turvallisuussyistä. Vaikka Suomi on EU-jäsenyyden myötä poliittisesti liittoutunut ja vaikka se on jatkuvasti laajentanut ja syventänyt yhteistyötään NATOn kanssa, Suomi on yhä sotilaallisesti liittoutumaton valtio. Suomen turvallisuuspoliittinen toimintaympäristö on ollut poikkeuksellisen vakaa kylmän sodan jälkeen ennen kaikkea siksi, että maailman voimakkain suurvalta Yhdysvallat on yhä sotilaallisesti läsnä Euroopassa ja Euroopan integraatio on jatkunut ja syventynyt. Suomi on sitonut nykyisen turvallisuuspoliittisen linjansa turvallisuusympäristönsä pysyvyyteen. Viime vuosina NATOn laajentuminen entisen Neuvostoliiton alueelle on voimistanut läntisten suurvaltojen ja Venäjän välistä valtakamppailua ja turvallisuuskilpailua Suomen lähialueella. Viimeistään Ukrainan konflikti on tehnyt ajankohtaiseksi myös kysymyksen Suomen sotilaallisesta liittoutumisesta. Tässä artikkeliteoksessa turvallisuuspolitiikan asiantuntijat analysoivat keskeisimpien ulkoisten toimijoiden – EU:n, Ruotsin, Viron, Venäjän, Yhdysvaltojen ja NATOn – merkitystä Suomen turvallisuuspoliittisen toimintaympäristön vakaudelle ja Suomen turvallisuudelle sekä pohtivat, onko Suomen syytä muuttaa nykyistä turvallisuuspoliittista linjaansa turvallisuusympäristössä tapahtuneiden muutosten vuoksi. Kirjoittajat myös arvioivat Suomen mahdolliseen sotilaalliseen liittoutumiseen liittyviä etuja ja haittoja verrattuna nykyiseen turvallisuuspoliittiseen ratkaisuun. Teoksen kirjoittajien toisistaan poikkeavat näkemykset Suomen turvallisuuspoliittisen toimintaympäristön vakaudesta, NATOn laajentumisen vaikutuksista Itämeren alueella, Venäjän valtapolitiikasta ja sen Suomelle muodostaman sotilaallisen uhan voimakkuudesta, NATOn pelotteen uskottavuudesta ja Yhdysvaltojen sitoutumisesta liittolaistensa puolustamiseen sekä Suomen NATO-jäsenyyden eduista ja haitoista valaisevat laajasti kysymystä Suomen turvallisuudesta ja turvallisuuspoliittisesta ratkaisusta. Suomelle sen geopoliittinen asema Venäjälle strategisesti elintärkeiden Kuolan alueen ja Pietari–Moskova-ydinalueen välittömässä läheisyydessä on ongelmallinen maan turvallisuuden kannalta. Suurvalta Venäjä onkin edelleen keskeisin Suomen turvallisuuteen ja turvallisuuspoliittiseen ratkaisuun vaikuttava ulkoinen toimija. Neuvostoliiton hajoamisen jälkeen Suomella on ollut ainutlaatuinen mahdollisuus liittoutua Yhdysvaltojen kanssa NATO-jäsenyyden myötä Venäjän potentiaalista sotilaallista uhkaa vastaan. Toisaalta Suomella ei kuitenkaan ole ollut pakottavaa tarvetta siihen, koska se on välillisesti hyötynyt Yhdysvaltojen suurstrategiasta Euroopassa ja koska Venäjän valtapolitiikka on kohdistunut ennen kaikkea entisen Neuvostoliiton alueelle. Vaikka Ukrainan konflikti onkin lisännyt poliittista ja sotilaallista jännitettä Itämeren alueella, tämän teoksen perusteella on kuitenkin mahdotonta antaa yksiselitteistä vastausta siihen, pitäisikö Suomen sen turvallisuuspoliittisessa toimintaympäristössä tapahtuneen muutoksen seurauksena liittyä NATOn jäseneksi vai ei. Halutessaan Suomi voi siis edelleen jatkaa nykyisellä turvallisuuspoliittisella linjallaan sotilaallisesti liittoutumattomana valtiona, mutta samalla sen täytyy kuitenkin pitää myös sotilaallinen liittoutuminen avoimena turvallisuuspoliittisena vaihtoehtona tulevaisuudessa.

Balancing Belligerents or Feeding the Beast: Transforming Conflict Traps

Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring conflicts in Africa exhibit four behaviors characteristic of archetypal dynamic system structures. The overarching questions asked in this study are whether these patterns are robustly correlated with fundamental concepts of resiliency in dynamic systems that scale from micro-to macro levels; are they consistent with theoretical risk factors and causal mechanisms; and what are the policy implications. Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects. This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges to horizontally and vertically integrate across levels; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.

Clouds of Suspicion: Airspace Arrangements, Escalation, and Discord in U.S./NATO-Russian Relations

How have cooperative airspace arrangements contributed to cooperation and discord in the Euro-Atlantic region? This study analyzes the role of three sets of airspace arrangements developed by Euro-Atlantic states since the end of the Cold War—(1) cooperative aerial surveillance of military activity, (2) exchange of air situational data, and (3) joint engagement of theater air and missile threats—in political-military relations among neighbors and within the region. These arrangements provide insights into the integration of Central and Eastern European states into Western security institutions, and the current discord that centers on the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s place in regional security. The study highlights the role of airspace incidents as contributors to conflict escalation and identifies opportunities for transparency- and confidence-building measures to improve U.S./NATO-Russian relations. The study recommends strengthening the Open Skies Treaty in order to facilitate the resolution of conflicts and improve region-wide military transparency. It notes that political-military arrangements for engaging theater air and missile threats created by NATO and Russia over the last twenty years are currently postured in a way that divides the region and inhibits mutual security. In turn, the U.S.-led Regional Airspace Initiatives that facilitated the exchange of air situational data between NATO and then-NATO-aspirants such as Poland and the Baltic states, offer a useful precedent for improving air sovereignty and promoting information sharing to reduce the fear of war among participating states. Thus, projects like NATO’s Air Situational Data Exchange and the NATO-Russia Council Cooperative Airspace Initiative—if extended to the exchange of data about military aircraft—have the potential to buttress deterrence and contribute to conflict prevention. The study concludes that documenting the evolution of airspace arrangements since the end of the Cold War contributes to understanding of the conflicting narratives put forward by Russia, the West, and the states “in-between” with respect to reasons for the current state of regional security. The long-term project of developing a zone of stable peace in the Euro-Atlantic must begin with the difficult task of building inclusive security institutions to accommodate the concerns of all regional actors.

Americanismo e fordismo nos boletins da comissão brasileiro-americana de educação industrial

This text thematizes the performance of the Brazilian-American Commission of Industrial Education (CBAI) since its installation at Rio de Janeiro, on 1947, and extinction in Curitiba, on 1963. The general goal consists in identifying if are there any relation between Gramsci’s Americanism and Fordism elements and the CBAI’s performance, by means of a speech analysis from de Newsletter of CBAI and other documental sources related to the organizations performance. The specifics objectives intend to contextualize the political and economic situation that Brazil was going through before and concomitant to CBAI’s performance, emphasizing some aspects of the Cold War feature that contributed to narrow the relations between United States and other countries of Latin America, especially Brazil. On the following, it intends to present the main aspects of Gramsci’s thought and the Americanism and fordism and Passive Revolution as key categories for a better understanding of the presence of an Americanization project on Brazilian’s professional education. As so, the object of this study are the Newsletters of CBAI. Finally, the speech’s analisys of the Newsletter was the methodology used to demonstrate CBAI as an Americanism diffuser. The documental research and sources served as groundwork, especially the Newsletters, were found at Departamento de Documentação Histórica of Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná (DEDHIS) and at Biblioteca de Educação of Universidade de São Paulo (FEUSP). The theoretical foundation has as a workline for the conception of the categories the studies of Gramsci about the of work (and the Newsletters itself), and the speech’s analysis of main concepts from Bakhtin, Voloshinov’s and the Circle of studies about language philosophy. At last, this paperwork concludes that the attempt to disseminate an amerizanization project in Brazil obtneined significant results on the industrialization of the country according to the fordism’s racionalization standarts, nevertheless, this research considers that such a project corroborates the comprehension about the consolidation of a Passive Revolution’s project.

Wsparcie Stanów Zjednoczonych skierowane na promowanie demokracji na Bliskim Wschodzie w latach 2003-2013 na przykładach Egiptu, Iraku i Jordanii

Wydział Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa

O processo de transformação das Forças Armadas da Alemanha decorrentes da participação das missões internacionais entre 1992 – 2010

No fim da guerra fria, teve início uma nova era para a Bundeswehr. Com a participação em missões no estrangeiro, surgiram novos desafios que influenciaram as diretrizes da defesa, a estrutura da força, a orientação e as necessidades de formação das forças armadas alemãs. Entre 1992 e 2010, foram implementadas alterações profundas para lidar com a nova situação da NATO e da Alemanha na organização. Em 2003, após várias reformas, o ministério da defesa considerou que reformas apenas não eram suficientes, e teve início o chamado processo de transformação. Este processo contínuo influenciou a "face da Bundeswehr mais profundamente do que qualquer outra alteração até à altura. A orientação em missões internacionais era o novo objetivo e uma consequência de experiências na Somália, Bósnia, Kosovo e Afeganistão. Além disso, a crise financeira para as despesas da defesa e a mudança da estrutura da força NATO influenciaram a Bundeswehr de forma semelhante, e impulsionaram a política de defesa alemã também para estas novas direções. A nova Bundeswehr orientada para missões foram moldadas e desenvolvidas de forma diferente, transformação é a nova palavra-chave e este processo contínuo mantém-se até hoje. Abstract: After the end of the cold war a new era began for the Bundeswehr. With the participation in missions out of area, new challenges came up and influenced the defense papers, force structure, orientation and training needs of the German armed forces. Within 1992 and 2010 several far-reaching changes were made, to deal with the new situation of the NATO and Germanys role within the organization. In 2003, after various reforms, reforms only were no longer sufficient in the eyes of acting minister of defense and the so called transformations process was initiated. This continuing process influenced the “face” of the Bundeswehr more deeply than any other changes before. The orientation on out of area missions was the new objective and a consequence from experiences in Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan. Beside of that, the financial downturn for defense expenditure and the changing NATO force structure influenced the Bundeswehr in a similar way and pushed the German defense policy into new directions as well. The new mission orientated Bundeswehr was shaped and built up differently, transformation is the new leading word and the ongoing process until today.