On the Origin of Ideas : An Abductivist Approach to Discovery

The purpose of this study is to analyze and develop various forms of abduction as a means of conceptualizing processes of discovery. Abduction was originally presented by Charles S. Peirce (1839-1914) as a "weak", third main mode of inference -- besides deduction and induction -- one which, he proposed, is closely related to many kinds of cognitive processes, such as instincts, perception, practices and mediated activity in general. Both abduction and discovery are controversial issues in philosophy of science. It is often claimed that discovery cannot be a proper subject area for conceptual analysis and, accordingly, abduction cannot serve as a "logic of discovery". I argue, however, that abduction gives essential means for understanding processes of discovery although it cannot give rise to a manual or algorithm for making discoveries. In the first part of the study, I briefly present how the main trend in philosophy of science has, for a long time, been critical towards a systematic account of discovery. Various models have, however, been suggested. I outline a short history of abduction; first Peirce's evolving forms of his theory, and then later developments. Although abduction has not been a major area of research until quite recently, I review some critiques of it and look at the ways it has been analyzed, developed and used in various fields of research. Peirce's own writings and later developments, I argue, leave room for various subsequent interpretations of abduction. The second part of the study consists of six research articles. First I treat "classical" arguments against abduction as a logic of discovery. I show that by developing strategic aspects of abductive inference these arguments can be countered. Nowadays the term 'abduction' is often used as a synonym for the Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE) model. I argue, however, that it is useful to distinguish between IBE ("Harmanian abduction") and "Hansonian abduction"; the latter concentrating on analyzing processes of discovery. The distinctions between loveliness and likeliness, and between potential and actual explanations are more fruitful within Hansonian abduction. I clarify the nature of abduction by using Peirce's distinction between three areas of "semeiotic": grammar, critic, and methodeutic. Grammar (emphasizing "Firstnesses" and iconicity) and methodeutic (i.e., a processual approach) especially, give new means for understanding abduction. Peirce himself held a controversial view that new abductive ideas are products of an instinct and an inference at the same time. I maintain that it is beneficial to make a clear distinction between abductive inference and abductive instinct, on the basis of which both can be developed further. Besides these, I analyze abduction as a part of distributed cognition which emphasizes a long-term interaction with the material, social and cultural environment as a source for abductive ideas. This approach suggests a "trialogical" model in which inquirers are fundamentally connected both to other inquirers and to the objects of inquiry. As for the classical Meno paradox about discovery, I show that abduction provides more than one answer. As my main example of abductive methodology, I analyze the process of Ignaz Semmelweis' research on childbed fever. A central basis for abduction is the claim that discovery is not a sequence of events governed only by processes of chance. Abduction treats those processes which both constrain and instigate the search for new ideas; starting from the use of clues as a starting point for discovery, but continuing in considerations like elegance and 'loveliness'. The study then continues a Peircean-Hansonian research programme by developing abduction as a way of analyzing processes of discovery.

Stock assessment of the Queensland-New South Wales tailor fishery (Pomatomus saltatrix)

Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

Melun sieto kaupunkielämän välttämättömyytenä : Melu ympäristöongelmana ja sen synnyttämien reaktioiden kulttuurinen käsittely Helsingissä

Tolerance of Noise as a Necessity of Urban Life. Noise pollution as an environmental problem and its cultural perceptions in the city of Helsinki This study looks at the noise pollution problem and the change in the urban soundscape in the city of Helsinki during the period from the 1950s to the present day. The study investigates the formation of noise problems, the politicization of the noise pollution problem, noise-related civic activism, the development of environmental policies on noise, and the expectations that urban dwellers have had concerning their everyday soundscape. Both so-called street noise and the noise caused by, e.g., neighbors are taken into account. The study investigates whether our society contains or has for some time contained cultural and other elements that place noise pollution as an essential or normal state of affairs as part of urban life. It is also discussed whether we are moving towards an artificial soundscape, meaning that the auditory reality, the soundscape, is more and more under human control. The concept of an artificial soundscape was used to crystallize the significance of human actions and the role of modern technology in shaping soundscapes and also to link the changes in the modern soundscape to the economic, political, and social changes connected to the modernization process. It was argued that the critical period defining noise pollution as an environmental problem were the years from the end of the 1960s to the early 1970s. It seems that the massive increase of noise pollution caused by road traffic and the introduction of the utopian traffic plans was the key point that launched the moral protest against the increase of noise pollution, and in general, against the basic structures and mindsets of society, including attitudes towards nature. The study argues that after noise pollution was politicized and institutionalized, the urban soundscape gradually became the target of systematic interventions. However, for various reasons, such as the inconsistency in decision making, our increased capacity to shape the soundscape has not resulted in a healthy or pleasant urban soundscape. In fact the number of people exposed to noise pollution is increasing. It is argued that our society contains cultural and other elements that urge us to see noise as a normal part of urban life. It is also argued that the possibility of experiencing natural, silent soundscapes seems to be the yardstick against which citizens of Helsinki have measured how successful we are in designing the (artificial) soundscape and if the actions of noise control have been effective. This work discusses whose interests it serves when we are asked to accept noise pollution as a normal state of affairs. It is also suggested that the quality of the artificial soundscape ought to be radically politicized, which might give all citizens a better and more equal chance to express their needs and wishes concerning the urban soudscape, and also to decide how it ought to be designed.

Population ecology of Heteronyx piceus (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) in a peanut/maize cropping system

Large larval populations of the scarabaeid beetle Heteronyx piceus Blanchard that occur under peanuts, but not maize, in the South Burnett region of Australia are the result of a high rate and prolonged period of egg production by females feeding on peanut foliage. Heteronyx piceus is a relatively sedentary species and movement of females between adjacent fields is low. Populations of H. piceus varied markedly with landscape position. High larval populations are more likely (1 in 4 chance) to be encountered on the ‘scrub’ soils in the upper parts of the landscape than in the ‘forest’ soils in the lower half (1 in 20 chance), indicating that soil type/landscape position is a key risk factor in assessing the need for management intervention. The studies indicate that, because of the species' sedentary nature, the most meaningful population entity for management of H. piceus is the individual field, rather than the whole-farm or the region. The implications of this population ecology for management of the pest are discussed in relation to control strategies.

All of Us

All of Us is a ground-breaking Australian government approved anti-bullying educational resource comprised of seven online videos that feature gender diverse, sexual diverse and intersex youths. The videos, along with unit guides and student handouts, have been designed to address a gap in high school curriculum as they teach not just about sexual diversity and gender diversity but also the values of empathy and respect, which has been demonstrated to improve students’ wellbeing and educational engagement. The resource captures the real life experiences of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex young people through a collection of short videos and teaching activities that are aligned to the Year 7/8 Health and Physical Education learning area of the Australian Curriculum. All Of Us has been developed to have a real impact on student attitudes towards lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex people and to encourage whole school change that affirms and supports the right of all students, staff and families to feel safe at school. This free video resource is widely available and allows all schools, regardless of experience, location or funding, the chance to create an environment where every student can learn, every teacher can teach and every family can belong from the beginning of 2016. The resource was launched on Thursday, 26 November 2015 at Treasury Theatre, 1 Macarthur St, Melbourne. The launch was attended by almost 200 people including former Safe Schools Coalition Ambassador Jason Ball, Victorian Commissioner for Gender and Sexuality Ro Allen, Chris Bush, Executive Producer of All Of Us, Micah Scott, CEO of Minus18, All Of Us Margot Fink; Safe Schools Coalition Victoria's Manager Roz Ward and; Sally Richardson, National Program Director of Safe Schools Coalition Australia.

Personality and social psychological studies on computer-mediated communication in school settings

The present study examined how personality and social psychological factors affect third and fourth graders' computer-mediated communication. Personality was analysed in terms of the following strategies: optimism, pessimism and defensive pessimism. Students worked either individually or in dyads which were paired homogeneously or heterogeneously according to the strategies. Moreover, the present study compared horizontal and vertical interaction. The study also examined the role that popularity plays, and students were divided into groups based on their popularity level. The results show that an optimistic strategy is useful. Optimism was found to be related to the active production and processing of ideas. Although previous research has identified drawbacks to pessimism in achievement settings, this study shows that the pessimistic strategy is not as debilitating a strategy as is usually assumed. Pessimistic students were able to process their ideas. However, defensive pessimists were somewhat cautious in introducing or changing ideas. Heterogeneous dyads were not beneficial configurations with respect to producing, introducing, or changing ideas. Moreover, many differences were found to exist between the horizontal and vertical interaction; specifically, the students expressed more opinions and feelings when teachers took no part in the discussions. Strong emotions were observed especially in the horizontal interaction. Further, group working skills were found to be more important for boys than for girls, while rejected students were not at a disadvantage compared to popular ones. Schools can encourage emotional and social learning. The present study shows that students can use computers to express their feelings. In addition, students who are unpopular in non-computer contexts or students who use pessimism can benefit from computers. Participation in computer discussions can give unpopular children a chance to develop confidence when relating to peers.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

A constraint-led approach for PE teachers

The Game Sense coaching approach emphasises the modification of game elements or the development of modified games to achieve learning outcomes. In this article we will introduce the constraints-led approach to learning and demonstrate how the theory can underpin the design of games lessons ensuring that teachers give themselves the best chance of satisfying the skill acquisition and psychological needs of every child in PE.

Cynodon dactylon Green Couch Grass, Bermuda Grass 'JT1'

Spontaneous mutation or chance seedling: discovered in the mid-1990s as a superior plant growing in a commercial field of “Common” Cynodon dactylon on Jimboomba Turf Company’s farm at Jimboomba in south-east Queensland. Selection criteria: vigorous lateral spread, high shoot density and turf quality, low inflorescence numbers, and darker green colour. In 1999 after observing the superior turf performance of this mutant plant as a small patch within a much larger paddock of “Common”, vegetative material was taken and propagated in clean ground elsewhere on the farm for multiplication and further trials in a variety of turf situations in south-east Queensland. Propagation: vegetative. Breeder: Lynn Davidson, Jimboomba, QLD. PBR Certificate Number 2640, Application Number 2002/282, granted 24 February 2005.

Zoysia japonica, Zoysia Grass 'Palisades'

Open-pollination: originated as a chance seedling from Z44 (maternal clonal parent), obtained from Beltsville MD in 1981, with an unknown pollen source from a zoysia grass germplasm field nursery at the Texas Agricultural Experiment Station in Dallas. ‘Palisades’ was selected over the parent Z44 on the basis of its lower tendency to produce thatch, its excellent lateral growth habit and its superior mowing qualities. ‘Palisades’ has been vegetatively propagated, and is uniform in growth expression. No seedling establishment from ‘Palisades’ has been noticed in either greenhouse or field studies. Selection criteria: rapid regrowth and spread by, and/or from, stolons and rhizomes; turf colour and density; tolerance to low mowing; winter hardiness; shade tolerance; low water use requirements. Propagation: vegetative. Breeder: Milton C. Engelke, Dallas, USA. PBR Certificate Number 2594, Application Number 2001/199, granted 26 October 2004.

Cynodon dactylon, Green Couch Grass 'TL1'

Chance seedling: observed in about 1989 as a distinctly coarser textured, densely matting, darker green mutant bermuda grass plant growing among the hybrid ‘Tifgreen’ on the eighth green at the Townsville Golf Course. Although ‘TL1’ was selected from a sward of the hybrid Bermuda grass ‘Tifgreen’, its inflorescence structure (4, not 3, racemes per inflorescence), agronomic attributes (e.g. its tolerance to certain herbicides), and its DNA profile are consistent with a chance seedling of Cynodon dactylon rather than a mutant plant of hybrid (C. dactylon x transvaalensis) origin. Selection criteria: exceptionally short stolon internodes resulting in an extremely tight knit stolon mat under close (c. 5-6 mm) but not very close (c. 3-4 mm) mowing; very deep, strong rhizome system; very dark green colour; tolerates shade better than other Australian bermuda grass varieties of common knowledge (except for ‘Plateau’A); and remains low growing under heavy tropical cloud cover even after 6-8 months. Designated ‘TL1’ by Tropical Lawns Pty Ltd and trialed successfully during the late 1990s and early 2000s in high wear situations (e.g. golf tees) in north Queensland. Propagation: vegetative. Breeder: Barry McDonagh, Townsville, QLD. PBR Certificate Number 2638, Application Number 2002/267, granted 24 February 2005.

Cynodon dactylon, Green Couch Grass 'Oz-E-Green'

Spontaneous mutation or chance seedling: discovered in 2001 as a superior plant growing among “Common” green couch on the breeder’s turf farm at Berries Road, Childers. A selected piece of sod was removed and broken into vegetative sprigs to propagate a larger area of this variety elsewhere on the breeder’s property. The original plant has now been multiplied vegetatively three times without showing any discernible off types. Selection criteria: dense prostrate habit and limited inflorescence production (giving a low mowing requirement), high turf quality, dark green colour. Propagation: vegetative. Breeder: Robert William Morrow, Childers, QLD. PBR Certificate Number 2844, Application Number 2004/035, granted 22 August 2005.

Paspalum vaginatum Swartz, Seashore Paspalum 'SDX-1'

‘SDX-1’ originated as an open-pollinated chance seeding in an old green of ‘Adalayd’ seashore paspalum (US Plant Patent 3939) surrounded by an undefined local ecotype of the same species. ‘SDX-1’ was finer textured and had a denser, more prostrate growth habit than its putative parents which are ‘Adalayd’ (maternal) and an undefined parental genotype growing among the surrounding local ecotype. ‘SDX-1’ was compared with other promising seedlings discovered similarly at the same time, and was selected on the basis of its dwarf growth habit, tolerance of low cutting height, turf density, fine-textured growth, and apparent salt tolerance under field conditions. Breeder: Stewart T Bennett, Paul H Tillman, Michael DePew, Enviro Turf LC, Terkonsha, MI, USA. PBR Certificate Number 3660, Application Number 2006/160, granted 16 December 2008.

Development of a DNA based aging technique for use in fisheries assessments. Final report, Australian Fisheries Research and Development Corporation Project 2007/033.

The productivity of a fisheries resource can be quantified from estimates of recruitment, individual growth and natural and fisheries-related mortality, assuming the spatial extent of the resource has been quantified and there is minimal immigration or emigration. The sustainability of a fisheries resource is facilitated by management controls such as minimum and maximum size limits and total allowable catch. Minimum size limits are often set to allow individuals the opportunity to reproduce at least once before the chance of capture. Total allowable catches are a proportion of the population biomass, which is estimated based on known reproduction, recruitment, mortality and growth rates. In some fisheries, however, management actions are put in place without quantification of the resource through the stock assessment process. This occurs because species-specific information, for example individual growth, may not be available. In these circumstances, management actions need to be precautionary to protect against future resource collapse, but this often means that the resource is lightly exploited. Consequently, the productivity of the resource is not fully realised. Australia’s most valuable fisheries are invertebrate fisheries (Australian Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry, 2008). For example, Australian fisheries (i.e. excluding aquaculture) production of crustaceans (largely prawns, rock lobster and crab) was 41,000 tonnes in 2006/7, worth $778 million. Production from mollusc (largely abalone, scallops, oysters and squid) fisheries was 39,000 tonnes, worth $502 million. Together, in 2006/7 crustacean and mollusc fisheries represented 58% of the total value of Australian wild fisheries production. Sustainable management of Australia’s invertebrate fisheries is frustrated by the lack of data on species-specific growth rates. This project investigated a new method to estimate age, and hence individual growth rates, in invertebrate fisheries species. The principle behind the new aging method was that telomeres (i.e. DNA end-caps of chromosomes) get shorter as an individual gets older. We studied commercial crustacean and molluscan species. A vertebrate fish species (silver perch, Bidyanus bidyanus) was used as a control to standardise our work against the literature. We found a clear relationship between telomere length and shell size for temperate abalone (Haliotis rubra). Further research is recommended before the method can be implemented to assist management of wildharvested abalone populations. Age needs to be substituted for shell size in the relationship and it needs to be studied for abalone from several regions. This project showed that telomere length declined with increasing age in Sydney rock oysters (Saccostrea glomerata) and was affected by regional variation. A relationship was not apparent between telomere length and age (or size as a surrogate for age) for crustacean species (school prawns, Metapenaeus macleayi; eastern rock lobster, Sagmariasus verreauxi; southern rock lobster, Jasus edwardsii; and spanner crabs, Ranina ranina). For school prawns, there was no difference between telomere length in males and females. Further research is recommended, however, as telomeric DNA from crustaceans was difficult to analyse using the terminal restriction fragment (TRF) assay. Telomere lengths of spanner crabs and lobsters were at the upper limit of resolution of the assay used and results were affected by degradation and possible contamination of telomeric DNA. It is possible that telomere length is an indicator of remaining lifespan in molluscan and crustacean individuals, as suggested for some vertebrate species (e.g. Monaghan, 2010). Among abalone of similar shell size and among lobster pueruli, there was evidence of individuals having significantly longer or shorter telomeres than the group average. At a population level, this may be a surrogate for estimates of future natural mortality, which may have usefulness in the management of those populations. The method used to assay telomere length (terminal restriction fragment assay) performed adequately for most species, but it was too expensive and time-consuming to be considered a useful tool for gathering information for fisheries management. Research on alternative methods is strongly recommended.