September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction

The area of Arctic September sea ice has diminished from about 7 million km2 in the 1990s to less than 5 million km2 in five of the past seven years, with a record minimum of 3.6 million km2 in 2012 (ref. 1). The strength of this decrease is greater than expected by the scientific community, the reasons for this are not fully understood, and its simulation is an on-going challenge for existing climate models2, 3. With growing Arctic marine activity there is an urgent demand for forecasting Arctic summer sea ice4. Previous attempts at seasonal forecasts of ice extent were of limited skill5, 6, 7, 8, 9. However, here we show that the Arctic sea-ice minimum can be accurately forecasted from melt-pond area in spring. We find a strong correlation between the spring pond fraction and September sea-ice extent. This is explained by a positive feedback mechanism: more ponds reduce the albedo; a lower albedo causes more melting; more melting increases pond fraction. Our results help explain the acceleration of Arctic sea-ice decrease during the past decade. The inclusion of our new melt-pond model10 promises to improve the skill of future forecast and climate models in Arctic regions and beyond.

Creep and recovery of magnetorheological fluids: experiments and simulations

A direct comparative study on the creep-recovery behavior of conventional MR fluids is carried out using magnetorheometry and particle-level simulations. Two particle concentrations are investigated (ϕ=0.05 and 0.30) at two different magnetic field strengths (53 kA•m-1 and 173 kA•m-1) in order to match the yield stresses developed in both systems for easier comparison. Simulations are mostly started with random initial structures with some additional tests of using preassembled single chains in the low concentration case. Experimental and simulation data are in good qualitative agreement. The results demonstrate three regions in the creep curves: i) In the initial viscoelastic region, the chain-like (at ϕ=0.05) or percolated three-dimensional network (at ϕ=0.30) structures fill up the gap and the average cluster size remains constant; ii) Above a critical strain of 10 %, in the retardation region, these structures begin to break and rearrange under shear. At large enough imposed stress values, they transform into thin sheet-like or thick lamellar structures, depending on the particle concentration; iii) Finally in the case of larger strain values either the viscosity diverges (at low stress values) or reaches a constant low value (at high stress values), showing a clear bifurcation behavior. For stresses below the bifurcation point the MR fluid is capable to recover the strain by a certain fraction. However, no recovery is observed for large stress values.

Impact of non-hydrostatic effects and trapped lee waves on mountain wave drag in directionally sheared flow

The orographic gravity wave drag produced in flow over an axisymmetric mountain when both vertical wind shear and non-hydrostatic effects are important was calculated using a semi-analytical two-layer linear model, including unidirectional or directional constant wind shear in a layer near the surface, above which the wind is constant. The drag behaviour is determined by partial wave reflection at the shear discontinuity, wave absorption at critical levels (both of which exist in hydrostatic flow), and total wave reflection at levels where the waves become evanescent (an intrinsically non-hydrostatic effect), which produces resonant trapped lee wave modes. As a result of constructive or destructive wave interference, the drag oscillates with the thickness of the constant-shear layer and the Richardson number within it (Ri), generally decreasing at low Ri and when the flow is strongly non-hydrostatic. Critical level absorption, which increases with the angle spanned by the wind velocity in the constant-shear layer, shields the surface from reflected waves, keeping the drag closer to its hydrostatic limit. While, for the parameter range considered here, the drag seldom exceeds this limit, a substantial drag fraction may be produced by trapped lee waves, particularly when the flow is strongly non-hydrostatic, the lower layer is thick and Ri is relatively high. In directionally sheared flows with Ri = O(1), the drag may be misaligned with the surface wind in a direction opposite to the shear, a behaviour which is totally due to non-trapped waves. The trapped lee wave drag, whose reaction force on the atmosphere is felt at low levels, may therefore have a distinctly different direction from the drag associated with vertically propagating waves, which acts on the atmosphere at higher levels.

A regime-dependent parametrization of subgrid-scale cloud water content variability

The subgrid-scale spatial variability in cloud water content can be described by a parameter f called the fractional standard deviation. This is equal to the standard deviation of the cloud water content divided by the mean. This parameter is an input to schemes that calculate the impact of subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity on gridbox-mean radiative fluxes and microphysical process rates. A new regime-dependent parametrization of the spatial variability of cloud water content is derived from CloudSat observations of ice clouds. In addition to the dependencies on horizontal and vertical resolution and cloud fraction included in previous parametrizations, the new parametrization includes an explicit dependence on cloud type. The new parametrization is then implemented in the Global Atmosphere 6 (GA6) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model and used to model the effects of subgrid variability of both ice and liquid water content on radiative fluxes and autoconversion and accretion rates in three 20-year atmosphere-only climate simulations. These simulations show the impact of the new regime-dependent parametrization on diagnostic radiation calculations, interactive radiation calculations and both interactive radiation calculations and in a new warm microphysics scheme. The control simulation uses a globally constant f value of 0.75 to model the effect of cloud water content variability on radiative fluxes. The use of the new regime-dependent parametrization in the model results in a global mean which is higher than the control's fixed value and a global distribution of f which is closer to CloudSat observations. When the new regime-dependent parametrization is used in radiative transfer calculations only, the magnitudes of short-wave and long-wave top of atmosphere cloud radiative forcing are reduced, increasing the existing global mean biases in the control. When also applied in a new warm microphysics scheme, the short-wave global mean bias is reduced.

Constraining the aerosol influence on cloud fraction

Aerosol-cloud interactions have the potential to modify many different cloud properties. There is significant uncertainty in the strength of these aerosol-cloud interactions in analyses of observational data, partly due to the difficulty in separating aerosol effects on clouds from correlations generated by local meteorology. The relationship between aerosol and cloud fraction (CF) is particularly important to determine, due to the strong correlation of CF to other cloud properties and its large impact on radiation. It has also been one of the hardest to quantify from satellites due to the strong meteorological covariations involved. This work presents a new method to analyze the relationship between aerosol optical depth (AOD) and CF. By including information about the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), the impact of the meteorological covariations is significantly reduced. This method shows that much of the AOD-CF correlation is explained by relationships other than that mediated by CDNC. By accounting for these, the strength of the global mean AOD-CF relationship is reduced by around 80%. This suggests that the majority of the AOD-CF relationship is due to meteorological covariations, especially in the shallow cumulus regime. Requiring CDNC to mediate the AOD-CF relationship implies an effective anthropogenic radiative forcing from an aerosol influence on liquid CF of −0.48 W m−2 (−0.1 to −0.64 W m−2), although some uncertainty remains due to possible biases in the CDNC retrievals in broken cloud scenes.

Antipyretic and anti-inflammatory properties of the ethanolic extract, dichloromethane fraction and costunolide from Magnolia ovata (Magnoliaceae)

Aim of the study: Magnolia ovata (A.St.-Hil.) Spreng (formerly Talauma ovata), known as ""pinha-do-brejo"" or ""baguacu"", is a large tree widely distributed in Brazil. Its trunk bark has been used in folk medicine against fever. However, no data have been published to support the antipyretic ethnopharmacological use. This study investigated the antipyretic and anti-inflammatory effects of the ethanolic extract (EEMO). dichloromethane fraction (DCM), and the isolated compound costunolide. Materials and methods: The antipyretic and anti-inflammatory activities were evaluated in experimental models of fever and inflammation in mice. Results: The oral administration of EEMO, DCM and costunolide inhibited carrageenan (Cg)-induced paw oedema (ID(50) 72.35 (38.64-135.46) mg/kg, 5.8 (2.41-14.04) mg/kg and 0.18 (0.12-0.27) mg/kg, respectively) and was effective in abolishing lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced fever (30 mg/kg, 4.5 mg/kg and 0.15 mg/kg, respectively). EEMO was also effective in reducing cell migration in the pleurisy model. Intraplantar injection of costunolide also reduced the paw oedema, myeloperoxidase and N-acetyl-glucosaminidase activity induced by Cg in mice. Conclusions: Collectively, these results show, for the first time, that extracts obtained from Magnolia ovata possess antipyretic and anti-inflammatory properties, and costunolide appears to be the compound responsible for these effects. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proteomics of the neurotoxic fraction from the sea anemone Bunodosoma cangicum venom: Novel peptides belonging to new classes of toxins

In contrast to the many studies on the venoms of scorpions, spiders, snakes and cone snails, tip to now there has been no report of the proteomic analysis of sea anemones venoms. In this work we report for the first time the peptide mass fingerprint and some novel peptides in the neurotoxic fraction (Fr III) of the sea anemone Bunodosoma cangicum venom. Fr III is neurotoxic to crabs and was purified by rp-HPLC in a C-18 column, yielding 41 fractions. By checking their molecular masses by ESI-Q-Tof and MALDI-Tof MS we found 81 components ranging from near 250 amu to approximately 6000 amu. Some of the peptidic molecules were partially sequenced through the automated Edman technique. Three of them are peptides with near 4500 amu belonging to the class of the BcIV, BDS-I, BDS-II, APETx1, APETx2 and Am-II toxins. Another three peptides represent a novel group of toxins (similar to 3200 amu). A further three molecules (similar to similar to 4900 amu) belong to the group of type 1 sodium channel neurotoxins. When assayed over the crab leg nerve compound action potentials, one of the BcIV- and APETx-like peptides exhibits an action similar to the type 1 sodium channel toxins in this preparation, suggesting the same target in this assay. On the other hand one of the novel peptides, with 3176 amu, displayed an action similar to potassium channel blockage in this experiment. In summary, the proteomic analysis and mass fingerprint of fractions from sea anemone venoms through MS are valuable tools, allowing us to rapidly predict the occurrence of different groups of toxins and facilitating the search and characterization of novel molecules without the need of full characterization of individual components by broader assays and bioassay-guided purifications. It also shows that sea anemones employ dozens of components for prey capture and defense. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AMP hydrolysis in soluble and microsomal rat cardiac cell fractions: kinetic characterization and molecular identification of 5 `-nucleotidase

The present study describes the enzymatic properties and molecular identification of 5`-nucleotidase in soluble and microsomal fractions from rat cardiac ventricles. Using AMP as a substrate, the results showed that the cation and the concentration required for maximal activity in the two fractions was magnesium at a final concentration of 1 mM. The pH optimum for both fractions was 9.5. The apparent K-m (Michaelis constant) values calculated from the Eadie-Hofstee plot were 59.7 +/- 10.4 mu M and 134.8 +/- 32.1 mu M, with V-max values of 6.7 +/- 0.4 and 143.8 +/- 23.8 nmol P-i/min/mg of protein (means +/- S.D., n = 4) from soluble and microsomal fractions respectively. Western blotting analysis of ecto-5`-nucleotidase revealed a 70 kDa protein in both fractions, with the major proportion present in the microsomal fraction. The presence of these enzymes in the heart probably has a physiological function in adenosine signalling. Furthermore, the presence of ecto-5`-nucleotidase in the microsomal fraction could have a role in the modulation of the excitation-contraction-coupling process through involvement of the Ca2+ influx into the sarcoplasmic reticulum. The measurement of maximal enzyme activities in the two fractions highlights the potential capacity of the different pathways of purine metabolism in the heart.

Production of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) P(3HB-co-3HV) with a broad range of 3HV content at high yields by Burkholderia sacchari IPT 189

The biosynthesis of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) from sucrose and propionic acid by Burkholderia sacchari IPT 189 was studied using a two-stage bioreactor process. In the first stage, this bacterium was cultivated in a balanced culture medium until sucrose exhaustion. In the second stage, a solution containing sucrose and propionic acid as carbon source was fed to the bioreactor at various sucrose/propionic acid (s/p) ratios at a constant specific flow rate. Copolymers with 3HV content ranging from 40 down to 6.5 (mol%) were obtained with 3HV yield from propionic acid (Y-3HV/prop) increasing from 1.10 to 1.34 g g(-1). Copolymer productivity of 1 g l(-1) h(-1) was obtained with polymer biomass content rising up to 60% by increasing a specific flow rate at a constant s/p ratio. Increasing values of 3HV content were obtained by varying the s/p ratios. A simulation of production costs considering Y-3HV/prop obtained in the present work indicated that a reduction of up to 73% can be reached, approximating US$ 1.00 per kg which is closer to the value to produce P3HB from sucrose (US$ 0.75 per kg).

Identification of enteropathogenic and enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli strains by immunoserological detection of intimin

Aims: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies (Mabs) against intimin in the detection of enteropathogenic and enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli isolates using immunoblotting. Methods and Results: Polyclonal and Mabs against the intimin-conserved region were raised, and their reactivities were compared in enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) and enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) isolates using immunoblotting analysis. In comparison with rat antiserum, rabbit anti-intimin IgG-enriched fraction had a stronger recognition pattern to a wide spectrum of intimin types in different EPEC and EHEC serotypes. On the other hand, murine monoclonal IgG2b specific to intimin, with dissociation constant of 1 center dot 3 x 10-8 mol l-1, failed in the detection of some of these isolates. Conclusion: All employed antibodies showed 100% specificity, not reacting with any of the eae-negative isolates. The sensitivity range was according to the employed antisera, and 97% for rabbit anti-intimin IgG-enriched fraction, followed by 92% and 78% sensitivity with rat antisera and Mab. Significance and Impact of the Study: The rabbit anti-intimin IgG-enriched fraction in immunoblotting analysis is a useful tool for EPEC and EHEC diagnoses.

A Bayesian Long-term Survival Model Parametrized in the Cured Fraction

The main goal of this paper is to investigate a cure rate model that comprehends some well-known proposals found in the literature. In our work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. The model is conveniently reparametrized through the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates by means of the logistic link. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in the proposed model. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Generalized log-gamma regression models with cure fraction

In this paper, the generalized log-gamma regression model is modified to allow the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. This modification leads to a generalized log-gamma regression model with a cure rate, encompassing, as special cases, the log-exponential, log-Weibull and log-normal regression models with a cure rate typically used to model such data. The models attempt to simultaneously estimate the effects of explanatory variables on the timing acceleration/deceleration of a given event and the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The normal curvatures of local influence are derived under some usual perturbation schemes and two martingale-type residuals are proposed to assess departures from the generalized log-gamma error assumption as well as to detect outlying observations. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed.

Instabilities in thermal gravity with a cosmological constant

It is shown that in quantum gravity at finite temperature, the effective potential evaluated in the tadpole approximation can have a local minimum below a certain critical temperature. However, when the leading higher order thermal loop corrections are included, one finds that no static solution exists at high temperature. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the Casimir energy for a massive quantum scalar field and the cosmological constant

We present a rigorous, regularization-independent local quantum field theoretic treatment of the Casimir effect for a quantum scalar field of mass mu not equal 0 which yields closed form expressions for the energy density and pressure. As an application we show that there exist special states of the quantum field in which the expectation value of the renormalized energy-momentum tensor is, for any fixed time, independent of the space coordinate and of the perfect fluid form g(mu,nu)rho with rho > 0, thus providing a concrete quantum field theoretic model of the cosmological constant. This rho represents the energy density associated to a state consisting of the vacuum and a certain number of excitations of zero momentum, i.e., the constituents correspond to lowest energy and pressure p <= 0. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.