Epidemiología y perdurabilidad empresarial en Colombia: Grupo Éxito

La muerte empresarial es un proceso que se ha venido presentando en compañías de las diferentes industrias a nivel nacional. La causa son los diferentes factores externos que impactan directamente las operaciones y estructura de estas. Con base en lo anterior es importante resaltar que existen diferentes tipos de muerte empresarial que para efectos de este trabajo se encontraron importante referenciar, pues son el marco del análisis de caso sobre Almacenes Éxito S.A. perteneciente al sector retail, donde se buscaba determinar cuál fue el tipo de cesión que tuvo, como consecuencia de la venta de acciones a la Compañía Francesa Casino Guichard-Perrachon S.A. Además del marco teórico empleado, se encontró importante realizar una reseña histórica de las diferentes empresas que han integrado el sector con el fin de entender posibles generalidades que se han venido replicando y que han llevado a la muerte empresarial de importantes compañías. Este trabajo permite la comprensión de las diferentes transformaciones que pueden tener los entes económicos a lo largo de su vida empresarial, no solo con lo que puede entenderse como el cese de operaciones sino también como apertura a nuevas estrategias de crecimiento y expansión.

Survival of European patients diagnosed with lymphoid neoplasms in 2000-2002: results of the HAEMACARE project

The European Cancer Registry-based project on hematologic malignancies (HAEMACARE), set up to improve the availability and standardization of data on hematologic malignancies in Europe, used the European Cancer Registry-based project on survival and care of cancer patients (EUROCARE-4) database to produce a new grouping of hematologic neoplasma(defined by the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, Third Edition and the 2001/2008 World Health Organization classifications) for epidemiological and public health purposes. We analyzed survival for lymphoid neoplasms in Europe by disease group, comparing survival between different European regions by age and sex. Design and Methods Incident neoplasms recorded between 1995 to 2002 in 48 population-based cancer registries in 20 countries participating in EUROCARE-4 were analyzed. The period approach was used to estimate 5-year relative survival rates for patients diagnosed in 2000-2002, who did not have 5 years of follow up. Results: The 5-year relative survival rate was 57% overall but varied markedly between the defined groups. Variation in survival within the groups was relatively limited across European regions and less than in previous years. Survival differences between men and women were small. The relative survival for patients with all lymphoid neoplasms decreased substantially after the age of 50. The proportion of ‘not otherwise specified’ diagnoses increased with advancing age.Conclusions: This is the first study to analyze survival of patients with lymphoid neoplasms, divided into groups characterized by similar epidemiological and clinical characteristics, providing a benchmark for more detailed analyses. This Europe-wide study suggests that previously noted differences in survival between regions have tended to decrease. The survival of patients with all neoplasms decreased markedly with age, while the proportion of ‘not otherwise specified’ diagnoses increased with advancing age. Thus the quality of diagnostic work-up and care decreased with age, suggesting that older patients may not be receiving optimal treatment

Benchmarking de implementaciones WMS-C de software libre

La propuesta WMS Cached (WMS-C) surge ante la necesidad de disponer de una solución más escalable al actual servicio web de mapas (WMS). Mediante la limitación de los parámetros de las peticiones a un conjunto discreto de valores, el servidor de mapas puede servir imágenes pregeneradas (teselas) a gran velocidad. En este documento se recogen las medidas de rendimiento realizadas sobre las implementaciones WMS-C: Tilecache, GeoWebcache y WMSCWrapper, todas ellas basadas en software libre. Los resultados de los benchmarks reflejan que, con todas las peticiones cacheadas y bajo las mismas condiciones, la caché WMSCWrapper ofrece un mejor rendimiento que las otras implementaciones. La difusión de estos resultados será de utilidad para ayudar a diversas entidades en la elección de una de estas soluciones libres en función de su objetivo de optimización

Knowledge-based modelling and simulation of operational problems of microbiological origin in wastewater treatment plants

The activated sludge and anaerobic digestion processes have been modelled in widely accepted models. Nevertheless, these models still have limitations when describing operational problems of microbiological origin. The aim of this thesis is to develop a knowledge-based model to simulate risk of plant-wide operational problems of microbiological origin.For the risk model heuristic knowledge from experts and literature was implemented in a rule-based system. Using fuzzy logic, the system can infer a risk index for the main operational problems of microbiological origin (i.e. filamentous bulking, biological foaming, rising sludge and deflocculation). To show the results of the risk model, it was implemented in the Benchmark Simulation Models. This allowed to study the risk model's response in different scenarios and control strategies. The risk model has shown to be really useful providing a third criterion to evaluate control strategies apart from the economical and environmental criteria.

Control basat en lògica difusa per sistemes de fangs activats. Disseny, implementació i validació en EDAR reals

En aquesta tesi es presenten dues propostes de Sistemes de Control basats en Lògica Difusa (SCLD), des del seu disseny fins a la seva implementació i validació en dues instal·lacions: l'EDAR Granollers i l'EDAR Taradell. El capítol 1 explica els conceptes bàsics per comprendre el desenvolupament dels dos SCLD i el resum d'una revisió d'articles que relacionen la lògica difusa amb aigües residuals. A continuació, s'estableixen els objectius. En el capítol 3 es presenten els materials i mètodes. Els capítols 4 i 5 exposen el treball realitzat per arribar a la implementació dels dos SCLD. Ambdós capítols presenten la mateixa estructura: presentació, definició dels objectius del SCLD, descripció de l'EDAR on s'implementa el SCLD, desenvolupament d'índexs d'avaluació, explicació del disseny del SCLD i la seva avaluació mitjançant estudis de simulació, implementació i validació del SCLD a l'EDAR i, finalment discussió del treball realitzat. En el capítol 6 s'enumeren les conclusions obtingudes.

A proposal of a behavior-based control architecture with reinforcement learning for an autonomous underwater robot

Aquesta tesi proposa l'ús d'un seguit de tècniques pel control a alt nivell d'un robot autònom i també per l'aprenentatge automàtic de comportaments. L'objectiu principal de la tesis fou el de dotar d'intel·ligència als robots autònoms que han d'acomplir unes missions determinades en entorns desconeguts i no estructurats. Una de les premisses tingudes en compte en tots els passos d'aquesta tesis va ser la selecció d'aquelles tècniques que poguessin ésser aplicades en temps real, i demostrar-ne el seu funcionament amb experiments reals. El camp d'aplicació de tots els experiments es la robòtica submarina. En una primera part, la tesis es centra en el disseny d'una arquitectura de control que ha de permetre l'assoliment d'una missió prèviament definida. En particular, la tesis proposa l'ús de les arquitectures de control basades en comportaments per a l'assoliment de cada una de les tasques que composen la totalitat de la missió. Una arquitectura d'aquest tipus està formada per un conjunt independent de comportaments, els quals representen diferents intencions del robot (ex.: "anar a una posició", "evitar obstacles",...). Es presenta una recerca bibliogràfica sobre aquest camp i alhora es mostren els resultats d'aplicar quatre de les arquitectures basades en comportaments més representatives a una tasca concreta. De l'anàlisi dels resultats se'n deriva que un dels factors que més influeixen en el rendiment d'aquestes arquitectures, és la metodologia emprada per coordinar les respostes dels comportaments. Per una banda, la coordinació competitiva és aquella en que només un dels comportaments controla el robot. Per altra banda, en la coordinació cooperativa el control del robot és realitza a partir d'una fusió de totes les respostes dels comportaments actius. La tesis, proposa un esquema híbrid d'arquitectura capaç de beneficiar-se dels principals avantatges d'ambdues metodologies. En una segona part, la tesis proposa la utilització de l'aprenentatge per reforç per aprendre l'estructura interna dels comportaments. Aquest tipus d'aprenentatge és adequat per entorns desconeguts i el procés d'aprenentatge es realitza al mateix temps que el robot està explorant l'entorn. La tesis presenta també un estat de l'art d'aquest camp, en el que es detallen els principals problemes que apareixen en utilitzar els algoritmes d'aprenentatge per reforç en aplicacions reals, com la robòtica. El problema de la generalització és un dels que més influeix i consisteix en permetre l'ús de variables continues sense augmentar substancialment el temps de convergència. Després de descriure breument les principals metodologies per generalitzar, la tesis proposa l'ús d'una xarxa neural combinada amb l'algoritme d'aprenentatge per reforç Q_learning. Aquesta combinació proporciona una gran capacitat de generalització i una molt bona disposició per aprendre en tasques de robòtica amb exigències de temps real. No obstant, les xarxes neurals són aproximadors de funcions no-locals, el que significa que en treballar amb un conjunt de dades no homogeni es produeix una interferència: aprendre en un subconjunt de l'espai significa desaprendre en la resta de l'espai. El problema de la interferència afecta de manera directa en robòtica, ja que l'exploració de l'espai es realitza sempre localment. L'algoritme proposat en la tesi té en compte aquest problema i manté una base de dades representativa de totes les zones explorades. Així doncs, totes les mostres de la base de dades s'utilitzen per actualitzar la xarxa neural, i per tant, l'aprenentatge és homogeni. Finalment, la tesi presenta els resultats obtinguts amb la arquitectura de control basada en comportaments i l'algoritme d'aprenentatge per reforç. Els experiments es realitzen amb el robot URIS, desenvolupat a la Universitat de Girona, i el comportament après és el seguiment d'un objecte mitjançant visió per computador. La tesi detalla tots els dispositius desenvolupats pels experiments així com les característiques del propi robot submarí. Els resultats obtinguts demostren la idoneïtat de les propostes en permetre l'aprenentatge del comportament en temps real. En un segon apartat de resultats es demostra la capacitat de generalització de l'algoritme d'aprenentatge mitjançant el "benchmark" del "cotxe i la muntanya". Els resultats obtinguts en aquest problema milloren els resultats d'altres metodologies, demostrant la millor capacitat de generalització de les xarxes neurals.

Towards a Eurasian Economic Union: the challenge of integration and unity. CEPS Special Report No. 75/December 2012

In the lead-up to the creation of a Eurasian Economic Union in 2015, the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan represent two elements of the most ambitious regional integration project launched in the post-Soviet era since 1991. This CEPS Special Report examines both the potential and the limits of Eurasian economic integration. For the purpose of assessing the Eurasian integration process, CEPS applied a modified version of a framework first developed by Ernest B. Haas and Philippe C. Schmitter in 1964 to project whether economic integration of a group of countries automatically engenders political unity. Taking the data available for the early stages of the European integration process as a benchmark, the results for the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space point to a rather unfavourable outlook for Eurasian economic integration.

Convectively coupled equatorial waves: A new methodology for identifying wave structures in observational data

Convectively coupled equatorial waves are fundamental components of the interaction between the physics and dynamics of the tropical atmosphere. A new methodology, which isolates individual equatorial wave modes, has been developed and applied to observational data. The methodology assumes that the horizontal structures given by equatorial wave theory can be used to project upper- and lower-tropospheric data onto equatorial wave modes. The dynamical fields are first separated into eastward- and westward-moving components with a specified domain of frequency–zonal wavenumber. Each of the components for each field is then projected onto the different equatorial modes using the y structures of these modes given by the theory. The latitudinal scale yo of the modes is predetermined by data to fit the equatorial trapping in a suitable latitude belt y = ±Y. The extent to which the different dynamical fields are consistent with one another in their depiction of each equatorial wave structure determines the confidence in the reality of that structure. Comparison of the analyzed modes with the eastward- and westward-moving components in the convection field enables the identification of the dynamical structure and nature of convectively coupled equatorial waves. In a case study, the methodology is applied to two independent data sources, ECMWF Reanalysis and satellite-observed window brightness temperature (Tb) data for the summer of 1992. Various convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin, mixed Rossby–gravity, and Rossby waves have been detected. The results indicate a robust consistency between the two independent data sources. Different vertical structures for different wave modes and a significant Doppler shifting effect of the background zonal winds on wave structures are found and discussed. It is found that in addition to low-level convergence, anomalous fluxes induced by strong equatorial zonal winds associated with equatorial waves are important for inducing equatorial convection. There is evidence that equatorial convection associated with Rossby waves leads to a change in structure involving a horizontal structure similar to that of a Kelvin wave moving westward with it. The vertical structure may also be radically changed. The analysis method should make a very powerful diagnostic tool for investigating convectively coupled equatorial waves and the interaction of equatorial dynamics and physics in the real atmosphere. The results from application of the analysis method for a reanalysis dataset should provide a benchmark against which model studies can be compared.

Benchmarking 2D hydraulic models for urban flooding

This paper describes benchmark testing of six two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic models (DIVAST, DIVASTTVD, TUFLOW, JFLOW, TRENT and LISFLOOD-FP) in terms of their ability to simulate surface flows in a densely urbanised area. The models are applied to a 1·0 km × 0·4 km urban catchment within the city of Glasgow, Scotland, UK, and are used to simulate a flood event that occurred at this site on 30 July 2002. An identical numerical grid describing the underlying topography is constructed for each model, using a combination of airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) fused with digital map data, and used to run a benchmark simulation. Two numerical experiments were then conducted to test the response of each model to topographic error and uncertainty over friction parameterisation. While all the models tested produce plausible results, subtle differences between particular groups of codes give considerable insight into both the practice and science of urban hydraulic modelling. In particular, the results show that the terrain data available from modern LiDAR systems are sufficiently accurate and resolved for simulating urban flows, but such data need to be fused with digital map data of building topology and land use to gain maximum benefit from the information contained therein. When such terrain data are available, uncertainty in friction parameters becomes a more dominant factor than topographic error for typical problems. The simulations also show that flows in urban environments are characterised by numerous transitions to supercritical flow and numerical shocks. However, the effects of these are localised and they do not appear to affect overall wave propagation. In contrast, inertia terms are shown to be important in this particular case, but the specific characteristics of the test site may mean that this does not hold more generally.

Enhanced phytoextraction: I. Effect of EDTA and citric acid on heavy metal mobility in a calcareous soil

Phytoextraction, the use of plants to extract heavy metals from contaminated soils, could be an interesting alternative to conventional remediation technologies. However, calcareous soils with relatively high total metal contents are difficult to phytoremediate due to low soluble metal concentrations. Soil amendments such as ethylene diaminetetraacetate (EDTA) have been suggested to increase heavy metal bioavailability and uptake in aboveground plant parts. Strong persistence of EDTA and risks of leaching of potentially toxic metals and essential nutrients have led to research on easily biodegradable soilamendments such as citric acid. In our research, EDTA is regarded as a scientific benchmark with which degradable alternatives are compared for enhanced phytoextraction purposes. The effects of increasing doses of EDTA (0.1, 1, 10 mmol kg(-1) dry soil) and citric acid (0.01, 0.05,0.25,0.442, 0.5 mol kg(-1) dry soil) on bioavailable fractions of Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb were assessed in one part of our study and results are presented in this article. The evolution of labile soil fractions of heavy metals over time was evaluated using water paste saturation extraction (similar to soluble fraction), extraction with 1 M NH4OAc at pH 7 (similar to exchangeable fraction), and extraction with 0.5 M NH4OAc + 0.5 M HOAc + 0.02 M EDTA atpH 4.65 (similar to potentially bioavailable fraction). Both citric acid and EDTA produced a rapid initial increase in labile heavy metal fractions. Metal mobilization remained constant in time for soils treated with EDTA, but metal fractions was noted for soils treated with citric acid. The half life of heavy metal mobilization by citric acid varied between 1.5 and 5.7 d. In the following article, the effect of heavy metal mobilization on uptake by Helianthus annutis will be presented.

Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

Global scale water stages from SAR imagery (GlosSARi) to support global flood forecasting

Despite the success of studies attempting to integrate remotely sensed data and flood modelling and the need to provide near-real time data routinely on a global scale as well as setting up online data archives, there is to date a lack of spatially and temporally distributed hydraulic parameters to support ongoing efforts in modelling. Therefore, the objective of this project is to provide a global evaluation and benchmark data set of floodplain water stages with uncertainties and assimilation in a large scale flood model using space-borne radar imagery. An algorithm is developed for automated retrieval of water stages with uncertainties from a sequence of radar imagery and data are assimilated in a flood model using the Tewkesbury 2007 flood event as a feasibility study. The retrieval method that we employ is based on possibility theory which is an extension of fuzzy sets and that encompasses probability theory. In our case we first attempt to identify main sources of uncertainty in the retrieval of water stages from radar imagery for which we define physically meaningful ranges of parameter values. Possibilities of values are then computed for each parameter using a triangular ‘membership’ function. This procedure allows the computation of possible values of water stages at maximum flood extents along a river at many different locations. At a later stage in the project these data are then used in assimilation, calibration or validation of a flood model. The application is subsequently extended to a global scale using wide swath radar imagery and a simple global flood forecasting model thereby providing improved river discharge estimates to update the latter.

Improving flood models using LiDAR: progress and problems

Airborne scanning laser altimetry (LiDAR) is an important new data source for river flood modelling. LiDAR can give dense and accurate DTMs of floodplains for use as model bathymetry. Spatial resolutions of 0.5m or less are possible, with a height accuracy of 0.15m. LiDAR gives a Digital Surface Model (DSM), so vegetation removal software (e.g. TERRASCAN) must be used to obtain a DTM. An example used to illustrate the current state of the art will be the LiDAR data provided by the EA, which has been processed by their in-house software to convert the raw data to a ground DTM and separate vegetation height map. Their method distinguishes trees from buildings on the basis of object size. EA data products include the DTM with or without buildings removed, a vegetation height map, a DTM with bridges removed, etc. Most vegetation removal software ignores short vegetation less than say 1m high. We have attempted to extend vegetation height measurement to short vegetation using local height texture. Typically most of a floodplain may be covered in such vegetation. The idea is to assign friction coefficients depending on local vegetation height, so that friction is spatially varying. This obviates the need to calibrate a global floodplain friction coefficient. It’s not clear at present if the method is useful, but it’s worth testing further. The LiDAR DTM is usually determined by looking for local minima in the raw data, then interpolating between these to form a space-filling height surface. This is a low pass filtering operation, in which objects of high spatial frequency such as buildings, river embankments and walls may be incorrectly classed as vegetation. The problem is particularly acute in urban areas. A solution may be to apply pattern recognition techniques to LiDAR height data fused with other data types such as LiDAR intensity or multispectral CASI data. We are attempting to use digital map data (Mastermap structured topography data) to help to distinguish buildings from trees, and roads from areas of short vegetation. The problems involved in doing this will be discussed. A related problem of how best to merge historic river cross-section data with a LiDAR DTM will also be considered. LiDAR data may also be used to help generate a finite element mesh. In rural area we have decomposed a floodplain mesh according to taller vegetation features such as hedges and trees, so that e.g. hedge elements can be assigned higher friction coefficients than those in adjacent fields. We are attempting to extend this approach to urban area, so that the mesh is decomposed in the vicinity of buildings, roads, etc as well as trees and hedges. A dominant points algorithm is used to identify points of high curvature on a building or road, which act as initial nodes in the meshing process. A difficulty is that the resulting mesh may contain a very large number of nodes. However, the mesh generated may be useful to allow a high resolution FE model to act as a benchmark for a more practical lower resolution model. A further problem discussed will be how best to exploit data redundancy due to the high resolution of the LiDAR compared to that of a typical flood model. Problems occur if features have dimensions smaller than the model cell size e.g. for a 5m-wide embankment within a raster grid model with 15m cell size, the maximum height of the embankment locally could be assigned to each cell covering the embankment. But how could a 5m-wide ditch be represented? Again, this redundancy has been exploited to improve wetting/drying algorithms using the sub-grid-scale LiDAR heights within finite elements at the waterline.

Discriminative pattern mining in software fault detection

We present a method to enhance fault localization for software systems based on a frequent pattern mining algorithm. Our method is based on a large set of test cases for a given set of programs in which faults can be detected. The test executions are recorded as function call trees. Based on test oracles the tests can be classified into successful and failing tests. A frequent pattern mining algorithm is used to identify frequent subtrees in successful and failing test executions. This information is used to rank functions according to their likelihood of containing a fault. The ranking suggests an order in which to examine the functions during fault analysis. We validate our approach experimentally using a subset of Siemens benchmark programs.

Benchmarking or business opportunity: Using milk recording data to expose your clients' weaknesses

Routine milk recording data, often covering many years, are available for approximately half the dairy herds of England and Wales. In addition to milk yield and quality, these data include production events that can be used to derive objective Key Performance Indicators (KPI) describing a herd's fertility and production. Recent developments in information systems give veterinarians and other technical advisers access to these KPIs on-line. In addition to reviewing individual herd performance, advisers can establish local benchmark groups to demonstrate the relative performance of similar herds in the vicinity. The use of existing milk recording data places no additional demands on farmer's time or resources. These developments could also readily be exploited by universities to introduce veterinary undergraduates to the realities of commercial dairy production.