929 resultados para Bayes theorem
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It has been recently found that a number of systems displaying crackling noise also show a remarkable behavior regarding the temporal occurrence of successive events versus their size: a scaling law for the probability distributions of waiting times as a function of a minimum size is fulfilled, signaling the existence on those systems of self-similarity in time-size. This property is also present in some non-crackling systems. Here, the uncommon character of the scaling law is illustrated with simple marked renewal processes, built by definition with no correlations. Whereas processes with a finite mean waiting time do not fulfill a scaling law in general and tend towards a Poisson process in the limit of very high sizes, processes without a finite mean tend to another class of distributions, characterized by double power-law waiting-time densities. This is somehow reminiscent of the generalized central limit theorem. A model with short-range correlations is not able to escape from the attraction of those limit distributions. A discussion on open problems in the modeling of these properties is provided.
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In this paper, we develop numerical algorithms that use small requirements of storage and operations for the computation of invariant tori in Hamiltonian systems (exact symplectic maps and Hamiltonian vector fields). The algorithms are based on the parameterization method and follow closely the proof of the KAM theorem given in [LGJV05] and [FLS07]. They essentially consist in solving a functional equation satisfied by the invariant tori by using a Newton method. Using some geometric identities, it is possible to perform a Newton step using little storage and few operations. In this paper we focus on the numerical issues of the algorithms (speed, storage and stability) and we refer to the mentioned papers for the rigorous results. We show how to compute efficiently both maximal invariant tori and whiskered tori, together with the associated invariant stable and unstable manifolds of whiskered tori. Moreover, we present fast algorithms for the iteration of the quasi-periodic cocycles and the computation of the invariant bundles, which is a preliminary step for the computation of invariant whiskered tori. Since quasi-periodic cocycles appear in other contexts, this section may be of independent interest. The numerical methods presented here allow to compute in a unified way primary and secondary invariant KAM tori. Secondary tori are invariant tori which can be contracted to a periodic orbit. We present some preliminary results that ensure that the methods are indeed implementable and fast. We postpone to a future paper optimized implementations and results on the breakdown of invariant tori.
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This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of different dimensions establishes the usefulness of the proposed approach.
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Two logically distinct and permissive extensions of iterative weak dominance are introduced for games with possibly vector-valued payoffs. The first, iterative partial dominance, builds on an easy-to check condition but may lead to solutions that do not include any (generalized) Nash equilibria. However, the second and intuitively more demanding extension, iterative essential dominance, is shown to be an equilibrium refinement. The latter result includes Moulin’s (1979) classic theorem as a special case when all players’ payoffs are real-valued. Therefore, essential dominance solvability can be a useful solution concept for making sharper predictions in multicriteria games that feature a plethora of equilibria.
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In the line opened by Kalai and Muller (1997), we explore new conditions on prefernce domains which make it possible to avoid Arrow's impossibility result. In our main theorem, we provide a complete characterization of the domains admitting nondictorial Arrovian social welfare functions with ties (i.e. including indifference in the range) by introducing a notion of strict decomposability. In the proof, we use integer programming tools, following an approach first applied to social choice theory by Sethuraman, Teo and Vohra ((2003), (2006)). In order to obtain a representation of Arrovian social welfare functions whose range can include indifference, we generalize Sethuraman et al.'s work and specify integer programs in which variables are allowed to assume values in the set {0, 1/2, 1}: indeed, we show that, there exists a one-to-one correspondence between solutions of an integer program defined on this set and the set of all Arrovian social welfare functions - without restrictions on the range.
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There are two ways of creating incentives for interacting agents to behave in a desired way. One is by providing appropriate payoff incentives, which is the subject of mechanism design. The other is by choosing the information that agents observe, which we refer to as information design. We consider a model of symmetric information where a designer chooses and announces the information structure about a payoff relevant state. The interacting agents observe the signal realizations and take actions which affect the welfare of both the designer and the agents. We characterize the general finite approach to deriving the optimal information structure for the designer - the one that maximizes the designer's ex ante expected utility subject to agents playing a Bayes Nash equilibrium. We then apply the general approach to a symmetric two state, two agent, and two actions environment in a parameterized underlying game and fully characterize the optimal information structure: it is never strictly optimal for the designer to use conditionally independent private signals; the optimal information structure may be a public signal or may consist of correlated private signals. Finally, we examine how changes in the underlying game affect the designer's maximum payoff. This exercise provides a joint mechanism/information design perspective.
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We consider nonlinear elliptic problems involving a nonlocal operator: the square root of the Laplacian in a bounded domain with zero Dirichlet boundary conditions. For positive solutions to problems with power nonlinearities, we establish existence and regularity results, as well as a priori estimates of Gidas-Spruck type. In addition, among other results, we prove a symmetry theorem of Gidas-Ni-Nirenberg type.
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New sufficient conditions for representation of a function via the absolutely convergent Fourier integral are obtained in the paper. In the main result, Theorem 1.1, this is controlled by the behavior near infinity of both the function and its derivative. This result is extended to any dimension d &= 2.
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The relationship between the operator norms of fractional integral operators acting on weighted Lebesgue spaces and the constant of the weights is investigated. Sharp bounds are obtained for both the fractional integral operators and the associated fractional maximal functions. As an application improved Sobolev inequalities are obtained. Some of the techniques used include a sharp off-diagonal version of the extrapolation theorem of Rubio de Francia and characterizations of two-weight norm inequalities.
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We study the existence of solutions to general measure-minimization problems over topological classes that are stable under localized Lipschitz homotopy, including the standard Plateau problem without the need for restrictive assumptions such as orientability or even rectifiability of surfaces. In case of problems over an open and bounded domain we establish the existence of a “minimal candidate”, obtained as the limit for the local Hausdorff convergence of a minimizing sequence for which the measure is lower-semicontinuous. Although we do not give a way to control the topological constraint when taking limit yet— except for some examples of topological classes preserving local separation or for periodic two-dimensional sets — we prove that this candidate is an Almgren-minimal set. Thus, using regularity results such as Jean Taylor’s theorem, this could be a way to find solutions to the above minimization problems under a generic setup in arbitrary dimension and codimension.
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This paper provides an explicit cofibrant resolution of the operad encoding Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras. Thus it defines the notion of homotopy Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras with the required homotopy properties. To define this resolution we extend the theory of Koszul duality to operads and properads that are defined by quadratic and linear relations. The operad encoding Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras is shown to be Koszul in this sense. This allows us to prove a Poincaré-Birkhoff-Witt Theorem for such an operad and to give an explicit small quasi-free resolution for it. This particular resolution enables us to describe the deformation theory and homotopy theory of BV-algebras and of homotopy BV-algebras. We show that any topological conformal field theory carries a homotopy BV-algebra structure which lifts the BV-algebra structure on homology. The same result is proved for the singular chain complex of the double loop space of a topological space endowed with an action of the circle. We also prove the cyclic Deligne conjecture with this cofibrant resolution of the operad BV. We develop the general obstruction theory for algebras over the Koszul resolution of a properad and apply it to extend a conjecture of Lian-Zuckerman, showing that certain vertex algebras have an explicit homotopy BV-algebra structure.
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Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. La programació al servei de la matemàtica és un programa informàtic fet amb Excel i Visual Basic. Resol equacions de primer grau, equacions de segon grau, sistemes d'equacions lineals de dues equacions i dues incògnites, sistemes d'equacions lineals compatibles determinats de tres equacions i tres incògnites i troba zeros de funcions amb el teorema de Bolzano. En cadascun dels casos, representa les solucions gràficament. Per a això, en el treball s'ha hagut de treballar, en matemàtiques, amb equacions, nombres complexos, la regla de Cramer per a la resolució de sistemes, i buscar la manera de programar un mètode iteratiu pel teorema de Bolzano. En la part gràfica, s'ha resolt com fer taules de valors amb dues i tres variables i treballar amb rectes i plans. Per la part informàtica, s'ha emprat un llenguatge nou per l'alumne i, sobretot, ha calgut saber decidir on posar una determinada instrucció, ja que el fet de variar-ne la posició una sola línea ho pot canviar tot. A més d'això, s'han resolt altres problemes de programació i també s'ha realitzat el disseny de pantalles.
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Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.
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The main goal of this article is to give an explicit rigid analytic uniformization of the maximal toric quotient of the Jacobian of a Shimura curve over Q at a prime dividing exactly the level. This result can be viewed as complementary to the classical theorem of Cerednik and Drinfeld which provides rigid analytic uniformizations at primes dividing the discriminant. As a corollary, we offer a proof of a conjecture formulated by M. Greenberg in hispaper on Stark-Heegner points and quaternionic Shimura curves, thus making Greenberg's construction of local points on elliptic curves over Q unconditional.
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We extend the basic concepts of Street's formal theory of monads from the setting of 2-categories to that of double categories. In particular, we introduce the double category Mnd(C) of monads in a double category C and dene what it means for a double category to admit the construction of free monads. Our main theorem shows that, under some mild conditions, a double category that is a framed bicategory admits the construction of free monads if its horizontal 2-category does. We apply this result to obtain double adjunctions which extend the adjunction between graphs and categories and the adjunction between polynomial endofunctors and polynomial monads.