Belief Propagation and Revision in Networks with Loops

Local belief propagation rules of the sort proposed by Pearl(1988) are guaranteed to converge to the optimal beliefs for singly connected networks. Recently, a number of researchers have empirically demonstrated good performance of these same algorithms on networks with loops, but a theoretical understanding of this performance has yet to be achieved. Here we lay the foundation for an understanding of belief propagation in networks with loops. For networks with a single loop, we derive ananalytical relationship between the steady state beliefs in the loopy network and the true posterior probability. Using this relationship we show a category of networks for which the MAP estimate obtained by belief update and by belief revision can be proven to be optimal (although the beliefs will be incorrect). We show how nodes can use local information in the messages they receive in order to correct the steady state beliefs. Furthermore we prove that for all networks with a single loop, the MAP estimate obtained by belief revisionat convergence is guaranteed to give the globally optimal sequence of states. The result is independent of the length of the cycle and the size of the statespace. For networks with multiple loops, we introduce the concept of a "balanced network" and show simulati.

Uncertainty Propagation in Model-Based Recognition

Building robust recognition systems requires a careful understanding of the effects of error in sensed features. Error in these image features results in a region of uncertainty in the possible image location of each additional model feature. We present an accurate, analytic approximation for this uncertainty region when model poses are based on matching three image and model points, for both Gaussian and bounded error in the detection of image points, and for both scaled-orthographic and perspective projection models. This result applies to objects that are fully three- dimensional, where past results considered only two-dimensional objects. Further, we introduce a linear programming algorithm to compute the uncertainty region when poses are based on any number of initial matches. Finally, we use these results to extend, from two-dimensional to three- dimensional objects, robust implementations of alignmentt interpretation- tree search, and ransformation clustering.

Progress in front propagation research

We review the progress in the field of front propagation in recent years. We survey many physical, biophysical and cross-disciplinary applications, including reduced-variable models of combustion flames, Reid's paradox of rapid forest range expansions, the European colonization of North America during the 19th century, the Neolithic transition in Europe from 13 000 to 5000 years ago, the description of subsistence boundaries, the formation of cultural boundaries, the spread of genetic mutations, theory and experiments on virus infections, models of cancer tumors, etc. Recent theoretical advances are unified in a single framework, encompassing very diverse systems such as those with biased random walks, distributed delays, sequential reaction and dispersion, cohabitation models, age structure and systems with several interacting species. Directions for future progress are outlined

Implementation intentions : A look back at fifteen years of progress. 'Las intenciones de implementaci??n : una mirada atr??s a quince a??os de progreso'

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n. Resumen tambi??n en ingl??s

Clinical prediction of occupational and non-specific low back pain

Non-specific Occupational Low Back Pain (NOLBP) is a health condition that generates a high absenteeism and disability. Due to multifactorial causes is difficult to determine accurate diagnosis and prognosis. The clinical prediction of NOLBP is identified as a series of models that integrate a multivariate analysis to determine early diagnosis, course, and occupational impact of this health condition. Objective: to identify predictor factors of NOLBP, and the type of material referred to in the scientific evidence and establish the scopes of the prediction. Materials and method: the title search was conducted in the databases PubMed, Science Direct, and Ebsco Springer, between1985 and 2012. The selected articles were classified through a bibliometric analysis allowing to define the most relevant ones. Results: 101 titles met the established criteria, but only 43 metthe purpose of the review. As for NOLBP prediction, the studies varied in relation to the factors for example: diagnosis, transition of lumbar pain from acute to chronic, absenteeism from work, disability and return to work. Conclusion: clinical prediction is considered as a strategic to determine course and prognostic of NOLBP, and to determine the characteristics that increase the risk of chronicity in workers with this health condition. Likewise, clinical prediction rules are tools that aim to facilitate decision making about the evaluation, diagnosis, prognosis and intervention for low back pain, which should incorporate risk factors of physical, psychological and social.

The Ergonomic Analysis and Back Injuries in Flexible Production System

Back injuries identification and diagnoses in the transition of the Taylor model to the flexiblemodel of production organization, demands a parallel intervention of prevention actors at work. This study uses simultaneously three intervention models (structured action analysis, muscle skeletal symptoms questionnaires and muscle skeletal assessment) for work activities in a packaging plant. In this study seventy and two (72) operative workers participated (28 workers with muscle skeletal evaluation). In an intervention period of 10 months, the physical, cognitive, organizational components and productive process dynamics were evaluated from the muscle skeletal demands issues. The differences established between objective exposure at risk, back injury risk perception, appreciation and a vertebral spine evaluation, in prior and post intervention, determines the structure for a muscle skeletal risk management system. This study explains that back injury symptoms can be more efficiently reduced among operative workers combining measures registered and the adjustment between dynamics, the changes at work and efficient gestures development. Relevance: the results of this study can be used to pre ent back injuries in workers of flexible production processes.

Implementation of ‘School Back’ by the ‘Core’ technique in a factory of geotextiles to prevent back pain

Introduction: This article aims to show an alternative intervention for the prevention and control of back pain to the people of a production plant of geotextiles for the construction exposed to handling and awkward postures through the implementation of the Back School using the CORE technique. This technique being understood as trainer of the stability musculature of the spine; whose benefit is proportionate the muscular complex of the back, stability and avoid osteomuscular lesions and improved posture. Objective: To present the results about the implementation of the back school by the CORE technique for prevention of back pain in a population of forty-eight male collaborators. Materials and methods: The back school began with talks of awareness by the occupational health physician explaining the objectives and benefits of it to all participants. Once this activity was done, was continued to evaluate all plant employees to establish health status through the PAR-Q questionnaire, who were surveyed for the perception of pain using visual analog scale (VAS) and stability was determined column through the CORE assessment, to determine the training plan. Then, were made every six months the revaluations and implementation of a survey of assistant public perception to identify the impact of the implementation of the school back on the two variables referred (pain perception and stability of column). Results: The pain perception according VAS increased in the number of workers asymptomatic in 12% and based in the satisfaction survey 94% of population reported that with the development of this technique decrease the muscle fatigue in lumbar level; and 96% of population reported an improvement in the performance of their work activities. Discussion: Posterior to the analysis of all results, it is interpreted that back schools practice through CORE technique, contributes to the prevention and / or control of symptoms at the lumbar level in population of productive sector exposed to risks derived from the physical load, provided that ensure its continuously development and supervised for a competent professional.

International propagation of shocks: an evaluation of contagion effects for some Latin American countries

In this paper we analyze the spread of shocks across assets markets in eight Latin American countries. First, we measure the extent of markets reactions with the Principal Components Analysis. And second, we investigate the volatility of assets markets based in ARCH-GARCH models in function of the principal components retained in the first stage. Our results do not support the existence of financial contagion, but of interdependence in most of the cases and a slight increase in the sensibility of markets to recent shocks.

Feed back educativo : aprender enseñando.

Se incluye cuestionarios y gráficos de la evaluación, fichas, dibujos y fotografías

Juegos de interacción para niños y preadolescentes. Escuela. Feed-back. Influencia. Cooperación.

Conjunto de juegos de interacción para niños relacionados con la escuela, con el feed-back, juegos de autoridad e influencia y juegos de cooperación. De cada juego se explica detalladamente su desarrollo y se indican además los objetivos, participantes, duración, materiales, dirección del juego y cuestiones para reflexionar sobre el juego.

Give us back our planet : a unique collection of poetry from children in Spain and the UK.

Los alumnos de centros escolares de toda España y del Reino Unido se han unido para crear esta colección de originales poemas e ilustraciones. Su trabajo pone de manifiesto una profunda preocupación por el futuro de nuestro planeta. Forma parte del proyecto bilingüe iniciado por el British Council de España y el Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia como parte de su proyecto bilingüe en escuelas estatales.

Fly traps! : plants that bite back.

Historia sobre el mundo real donde se describe cómo un hombre investiga el mundo de las plantas carnívoras. Escrita desde un punto de vista muy personal, mezclando hechos con sentimientos, anima a los niños a pensar, sentir e imaginar lo que aprenden. El diseño de página tiene interesantes variaciones al diferenciar entre la historia y la información. El viaje del hombre se cuenta en caracteres grandes, mientras que los hechos sobre las plantas carnívoras están escritos con una letra más pequeña,lo que da una gran cantidad de información en una forma entretenida. Especialmente interesantes son las descripciones de cómo las plantas comen los insectos que capturan. Al final hay notas para el profesor.

Relación del tipo de feed-back del docente con la percepción de autonomía del alumnado en clases de educación física.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

El concepto de serie num??rica : un estudio a trav??s del modelo de Pirie y Kieren centrado en el mecanimo 'folding back'

Resumen basado en el de la publicaci??n