Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Measuring tax efficiency: A tax optimality index

This paper introduces an index of tax optimality that measures the distance of some current tax structure from the optimal tax structure in the presence of public goods. This index is defined on the [0, 1] interval and measures the proportion of the optimal tax rates that will achieve the same welfare outcome as some arbitrarily given initial tax structure. We call this number the Tax Optimality Index. We also show how the basic methodology can be altered to derive a revenue equivalent uniform tax, which measures the tax burden implied by the public sector. A numerical example is used to illustrate the method developed, and extensions of the analysis to handle models with multiple households and nonlinear taxation structures are undertaken.

Suicidal behaviour in bipolar disorder

The Jorvi Bipolar Study (JoBS) is a collaborative ongoing bipolar research project between the Department of Mental Health and Alcohol Research of the National Public Health Institute, Helsinki, and the Department of Psychiatry, Jorvi Hospital, Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH), Espoo, Finland. The JoBS is a prospective, naturalistic cohort study of secondary level care psychiatric out-and inpatients with a new episode of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) bipolar disorder (BD). Altogether, 1630 patients (aged 18-59) years were screened using the Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ) for a possible new episode of DSM-IV BD. 490 patients were interviewed with semi-structured interview [the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, research version with Psychotic Screen (SCID-I/P)]. 191 patients with new episode of DSM-IV BD were included in the bipolar cohort study. Psychiatric comorbidity was evaluated using semi-structured interviews. At 6- and 18-month follow-up, the interviews were repeated and life-chart methodology was used to integrate all available information about nature and duration of all different phases. Suicidal behaviour was examined both at intake and follow-up by psychometric scale [Scale for Suicidal Ideation (SSI)], interviewer s questions and medical and psychiatric records. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate prevalence of suicidal behaviour and incidence of suicide attempts, and examine the wide range of risk factors for attempted suicide both, at intake and follow-up, in representative secondary-level sample of psychiatric in- and outpatients with BD. In this study suicidal behaviour was common among psychiatric patients with BD. During the episode when patients were included into cohort study (index episode), 20% of the patients had attempted suicide and 61% had suicidal ideation. Severity of depressive episode and hopelessness were independent risk factors for suicidal ideation, whereas hopelessness, comorbid personality disorder and previous suicide attempt predicted suicide attempts during the index episode. There were no differences in prevalence of suicidal behaviour between bipolar I and II disorder; the risk factors were overlapping but not identical. During the index episode, suicide attempts took place during depressive, mixed and depressive mixed phases. Furthermore, there were marked differences regarding level of suicidal ideation during different phases, with the highest levels during the mixed phases of the illness. Hopelessness was independently associated with suicidal behaviour during the depressive phase. A subjective rating of severity of depression (Beck Depression Inventory) and younger age predicted suicide attempts during mixed phases. During the 18-month follow-up 20% of patients attempted suicide. Previous suicide attempts, hopelessness, depressive phase at index episode and younger age at intake were independent risk factors for suicide attempts during follow-up. Taken altogether, 55% patients attempted suicide before index episode, during index episode or during follow-up. The incidence of suicide attempts was 37-fold during combined mixed and depressive mixed states and 18-fold during major depressive phase as compared with other phases. Prior suicide attempt and time spent in combined mixed phases - mixed and depressive mixed - and depressive phases independently predicted the suicide attempt during follow-up. More than half of the patients have attempted suicide during their lifetime, a finding which highlights the public health importance of suicidal behaviour in bipolar disorder. Clinically, it is crucial to recognize BD and manage the mixed and depressive phases of bipolar patients fast and effectively, as time spent in depressive and mixed phases involves a remarkably high risk of suicide attempts.

d-Regular Graphs of Acyclic Chromatic Index at Least d+2

An acyclic edge coloring of a graph is a proper edge coloring such that there are no bichromatic cycles. The acyclic chromatic index of a graph is the minimum number k such that there is an acyclic edge coloring using k colors and is denoted by a'(G). It was conjectured by Alon, Suclakov and Zaks (and earlier by Fiamcik) that a'(G) <= Delta+2, where Delta = Delta(G) denotes the maximum degree of the graph. Alon et al. also raised the question whether the complete graphs of even order are the only regular graphs which require Delta+2 colors to be acyclically edge colored. In this article, using a simple counting argument we observe not only that this is not true, but in fact all d-regular graphs with 2n vertices and d>n, requires at least d+2 colors. We also show that a'(K-n,K-n) >= n+2, when n is odd using a more non-trivial argument. (Here K-n,K-n denotes the complete bipartite graph with n vertices on each side.) This lower bound for Kn,n can be shown to be tight for some families of complete bipartite graphs and for small values of n. We also infer that for every d, n such that d >= 5, n >= 2d+3 and dn even, there exist d-regular graphs which require at least d+2-colors to be acyclically edge colored. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Graph Theory 63: 226-230, 2010.

Asteroid identification using statistical orbital inversion methods

An efficient and statistically robust solution for the identification of asteroids among numerous sets of astrometry is presented. In particular, numerical methods have been developed for the short-term identification of asteroids at discovery, and for the long-term identification of scarcely observed asteroids over apparitions, a task which has been lacking a robust method until now. The methods are based on the solid foundation of statistical orbital inversion properly taking into account the observational uncertainties, which allows for the detection of practically all correct identifications. Through the use of dimensionality-reduction techniques and efficient data structures, the exact methods have a loglinear, that is, O(nlog(n)), computational complexity, where n is the number of included observation sets. The methods developed are thus suitable for future large-scale surveys which anticipate a substantial increase in the astrometric data rate. Due to the discontinuous nature of asteroid astrometry, separate sets of astrometry must be linked to a common asteroid from the very first discovery detections onwards. The reason for the discontinuity in the observed positions is the rotation of the observer with the Earth as well as the motion of the asteroid and the observer about the Sun. Therefore, the aim of identification is to find a set of orbital elements that reproduce the observed positions with residuals similar to the inevitable observational uncertainty. Unless the astrometric observation sets are linked, the corresponding asteroid is eventually lost as the uncertainty of the predicted positions grows too large to allow successful follow-up. Whereas the presented identification theory and the numerical comparison algorithm are generally applicable, that is, also in fields other than astronomy (e.g., in the identification of space debris), the numerical methods developed for asteroid identification can immediately be applied to all objects on heliocentric orbits with negligible effects due to non-gravitational forces in the time frame of the analysis. The methods developed have been successfully applied to various identification problems. Simulations have shown that the methods developed are able to find virtually all correct linkages despite challenges such as numerous scarce observation sets, astrometric uncertainty, numerous objects confined to a limited region on the celestial sphere, long linking intervals, and substantial parallaxes. Tens of previously unknown main-belt asteroids have been identified with the short-term method in a preliminary study to locate asteroids among numerous unidentified sets of single-night astrometry of moving objects, and scarce astrometry obtained nearly simultaneously with Earth-based and space-based telescopes has been successfully linked despite a substantial parallax. Using the long-term method, thousands of realistic 3-linkages typically spanning several apparitions have so far been found among designated observation sets each spanning less than 48 hours.

Process variability-aware statistical hybrid modeling of dynamic power dissipation in 65 nm CMOS designs

A generalized technique is proposed for modeling the effects of process variations on dynamic power by directly relating the variations in process parameters to variations in dynamic power of a digital circuit. The dynamic power of a 2-input NAND gate is characterized by mixed-mode simulations, to be used as a library element for 65mn gate length technology. The proposed methodology is demonstrated with a multiplier circuit built using the NAND gate library, by characterizing its dynamic power through Monte Carlo analysis. The statistical technique of Response. Surface Methodology (RSM) using Design of Experiments (DOE) and Least Squares Method (LSM), are employed to generate a "hybrid model" for gate power to account for simultaneous variations in multiple process parameters. We demonstrate that our hybrid model based statistical design approach results in considerable savings in the power budget of low power CMOS designs with an error of less than 1%, with significant reductions in uncertainty by atleast 6X on a normalized basis, against worst case design.

Author response: "Missed opportunity related to statistical methods"

"We thank MrGilder for his considered comments and suggestions for alternative analyses of our data. We also appreciate Mr Gilder’s support of our call for larger studies to contribute to the evidence base for preoperative loading with high-carbohydrate fluids..."

Statistical tools for analyzing water quality data

Water quality data are often collected at different sites over time to improve water quality management. Water quality data usually exhibit the following characteristics: non-normal distribution, presence of outliers, missing values, values below detection limits (censored), and serial dependence. It is essential to apply appropriate statistical methodology when analyzing water quality data to draw valid conclusions and hence provide useful advice in water management. In this chapter, we will provide and demonstrate various statistical tools for analyzing such water quality data, and will also introduce how to use a statistical software R to analyze water quality data by various statistical methods. A dataset collected from the Susquehanna River Basin will be used to demonstrate various statistical methods provided in this chapter. The dataset can be downloaded from website http://www.srbc.net/programs/CBP/nutrientprogram.htm.

Long-term effects of physical activity level on changes in healthy body mass index over 12 years in young adult women

Objectives To examine the effects of overall level and timing of physical activity (PA) on changes from a healthy body mass index (BMI) category over 12 years in young adult women. Patients and Methods Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (younger cohort, born 1973-1978) completed surveys between 2000 (age 22-27 years) and 2012 (age 34-39 years). Physical activity was measured in 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009 and was categorized as very low, low, active, or very active at each survey, and a cumulative PA score for this 9-year period was created. Logistic regression was used to examine relationships between PA accumulated across all surveys (cumulative PA model) and PA at each survey (critical periods PA model), with change in BMI category (from healthy to overweight or healthy to obese) from 2000 to 2012. Results In women with a healthy BMI in 2000, there were clear dose-response relationships between accumulated PA and transition to overweight (P=.03) and obesity (P<.01) between 2000 and 2012. The critical periods analysis indicated that very active levels of PA at the 2006 survey (when the women were 28-33 years old) and active or very active PA at the 2009 survey (age 31-36 years) were most protective against transitioning to overweight and obesity. Conclusion These findings confirm that maintenance of very high PA levels throughout young adulthood will significantly reduce the risk of becoming overweight or obese. There seems to be a critical period for maintaining high levels of activity at the life stage when many women face competing demands of caring for infants and young children.

Spectral unmixing with estimated adaptive endmember index using Extended Support Vector Machine

The most difficult operation in the flood inundation mapping using optical flood images is to separate fully inundated areas from the ‘wet’ areas where trees and houses are partly covered by water. This can be referred as a typical problem the presence of mixed pixels in the images. A number of automatic information extraction image classification algorithms have been developed over the years for flood mapping using optical remote sensing images. Most classification algorithms generally, help in selecting a pixel in a particular class label with the greatest likelihood. However, these hard classification methods often fail to generate a reliable flood inundation mapping because the presence of mixed pixels in the images. To solve the mixed pixel problem advanced image processing techniques are adopted and Linear Spectral unmixing method is one of the most popular soft classification technique used for mixed pixel analysis. The good performance of linear spectral unmixing depends on two important issues, those are, the method of selecting endmembers and the method to model the endmembers for unmixing. This paper presents an improvement in the adaptive selection of endmember subset for each pixel in spectral unmixing method for reliable flood mapping. Using a fixed set of endmembers for spectral unmixing all pixels in an entire image might cause over estimation of the endmember spectra residing in a mixed pixel and hence cause reducing the performance level of spectral unmixing. Compared to this, application of estimated adaptive subset of endmembers for each pixel can decrease the residual error in unmixing results and provide a reliable output. In this current paper, it has also been proved that this proposed method can improve the accuracy of conventional linear unmixing methods and also easy to apply. Three different linear spectral unmixing methods were applied to test the improvement in unmixing results. Experiments were conducted in three different sets of Landsat-5 TM images of three different flood events in Australia to examine the method on different flooding conditions and achieved satisfactory outcomes in flood mapping.