873 resultados para Multi-Agent Model
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Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.
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Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.
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Introduction: Ankle arthrodesis (AD) and total ankle replacement (TAR) are typical treatments for ankle osteoarthritis (AO). Despite clinical interest, there is a lack of their outcome evaluation using objective criteria. Gait analysis and plantar pressure assessment are appropriate to detect pathologies in orthopaedics but they are mostly used in lab with few gait cycles. In this study, we propose an ambulatory device based on inertial and plantar pressure sensors to compare the gait during long-distance trials between healthy subjects (H) and patients with AO or treated by AD and TAR. Methods: Our study included four groups: 11 patients with AO, 9 treated by TAR, 7 treated by AD and 6 control subjects. An ambulatory system (Physilog®, CH) was used for gait analysis; plantar pressure measurements were done using a portable insole (Pedar®-X, DE). The subjects were asked to walk 50 meters in two trials. Mean value and coefficient of variation of spatio-temporal gait parameters were calculated for each trial. Pressure distribution was analyzed in ten subregions of foot. All parameters were compared among the four groups using multi-level model-based statistical analysis. Results: Significant difference (p <0.05) with control was noticed for AO patients in maximum force in medial hindfoot and forefoot and in central forefoot. These differences were no longer significant in TAR and AD groups. Cadence and speed of all pathologic groups showed significant difference with control. Both treatments showed a significant improvement in double support and stance. TAR decreased variability in speed, stride length and knee ROM. Conclusions: In spite of a small sample size, this study showed that ankle function after AO treatments can be evaluated objectively based on plantar pressure and spatio-temporal gait parameters measured during unconstrained walking outside the lab. The combination of these two ambulatory techniques provides a promising way to evaluate foot function in clinics.
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This paper uses a database covering the universe of French firms for the period 1990-2007 to provide a forensic account of the role of individual firms in generating aggregatefluctuations. We set up a simple multi-sector model of heterogeneous firms selling tomultiple markets to motivate a theoretically-founded decomposition of firms' annualsales growth rate into different components. We find that the firm-specific componentcontributes substantially to aggregate sales volatility, mattering about as much as thecomponents capturing shocks that are common across firms within a sector or country.We then decompose the firm-specific component to provide evidence on two mechanismsthat generate aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic shocks highlighted in the recentliterature: (i) when the firm size distribution is fat-tailed, idiosyncratic shocks tolarge firms directly contribute to aggregate fluctuations; and (ii) aggregate fluctuationscan arise from idiosyncratic shocks due to input-output linkages across the economy.Firm linkages are approximately three times as important as the direct effect of firmshocks in driving aggregate fluctuations.
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DDM is a framework that combines intelligent agents and artificial intelligence traditional algorithms such as classifiers. The central idea of this project is to create a multi-agent system that allows to compare different views into a single one.
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Kassanhallintakirjallisuus on pitkälti normatiivista tai yksittäisiä kohteita ja niiden kassanhallinnanosa-alueita tarkastelevaa case-tutkimusta. Sen sijaan kassanhallintaa laajalla tutkimuskohdejoukolla strategia- ja järjestelmävalintojen näkökulmasta tarkastelevia tutkimuksia on tehty vain vähän. Tämä suomalaista kuntakenttää tarkastelevaeksploratiivinen tutkimus antaa kuvan rakenne-, strategia- ja järjestelmävalinnoista, joita kunnat ovat painottaneet kassanhallinnassaan vuosina 2000 - 2002. Tutkimuksen metodologisena viitekehyksenä käytetty kontingenssilähestymistapaan pohjautuva konfiguratiivinen systeemimalli mahdollisti suuren tutkimuskohdejoukonstrategia- ja järjestelmäkäytäntöjen erojen kvantitatiivisen analysoinnin. Ryhmittelyanalyysin avulla tutkimusdatasta muodostui neljä strategia- ja järjestelmäpainotuksiltaan toisistaan eroavaa kuntaryhmää, ja tutkimustulokset osoittivat kuntien kassanhallintakäytäntöjen olevan hyvin samankaltaisia yksityissektorin vastaaviin käytäntöihin verrattuna; myös julkissektorin kassanhallinnassa painotetaan kustannustehokkuutta. Kustannustehokkuusstrategian rinnalla vastaajakunnat painottivat sijoitus-, lainanhoito- ja riskienhallintastrategioita sekä em. strategioiden toteuttamista tukevia rakenne- ja järjestelmävalintoja. Myös pienempienkuntien havaittiin tukeutuneen samoihin strategia- ja järjestelmäpainotuksiin kuin isommat kunnat, vaikka esim. järjestelmien käytännön tietohallintaratkaisuissa saattaa esiintyä kuntakoosta johtuvia eroja. Lisäksi joustavuusstrategian painoarvo osana kuntien kassanhallintastrategioita oli suuri. Tämä on johdonmukaista, sillä kassapositioiden ennakoimattomat muutokset edellyttävät nopeaa päätöksentekoa. Kustannustehokkuusajattelulla, kassanhoitokokonaisuuden ymmärtämisellä ja uusien kassanhoitotekniikoiden sekä rahoitusinstrumenttien selektiivisellä käytöllä on mahdollista vaikuttaa kuntien rahoituksenhoidon nettokustannuksiin.
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Crystal growth is an essential phase in crystallization kinetics. The rate of crystal growth provides significant information for the design and control of crystallization processes; nevertheless, obtaining accurate growth rate data is still challenging due to a number of factors that prevail in crystal growth. In industrial crystallization, crystals are generally grown from multi-componentand multi-particle solutions under complicated hydrodynamic conditions; thus, it is crucial to increase the general understanding of the growth kinetics in these systems. The aim of this work is to develop a model of the crystal growth rate from solution. An extensive literature review of crystal growth focuses on themodelling of growth kinetics and thermodynamics, and new measuring techniques that have been introduced in the field of crystallization. The growth of a singlecrystal is investigated in binary and ternary systems. The binary system consists of potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP, crystallizing solute) and water (solvent), and the ternary system includes KDP, water and an organic admixture. The studied admixtures, urea, ethanol and 1-propanol, are employed at relatively highconcentrations (of up to 5.0 molal). The influence of the admixtures on the solution thermodynamics is studied using the Pitzer activity coefficient model. Theprediction method of the ternary solubility in the studied systems is introduced and verified. The growth rate of the KDP (101) face in the studied systems aremeasured in the growth cell as a function of supersaturation, the admixture concentration, the solution velocity over a crystal and temperature. In addition, the surface morphology of the KDP (101) face is studied using ex situ atomic force microscopy (AFM). The crystal growth rate in the ternary systems is modelled on the basis of the two-step growth model that contains the Maxwell-Stefan (MS) equations and a surface-reaction model. This model is used together with measuredcrystal growth rate data to develop a new method for the evaluation of the model parameters. The validation of the model is justified with experiments. The crystal growth rate in an imperfectly mixed suspension crystallizer is investigatedusing computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A solid-liquid suspension flow that includes multi-sized particles is described by the multi-fluid model as well as by a standard k-epsilon turbulence model and an interface momentum transfer model. The local crystal growth rate is determined from calculated flow information in a diffusion-controlled crystal growth regime. The calculated results are evaluated experimentally.
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Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, voidaanko asiakkaan ja palveluntarjoajan odotukset yhdistää muodostettaessa palveluntarjoajan monikanavamallia. Monikanavaisuus tuo asiakkaalle mahdollisuuksia ajasta ja paikasta riippumattomaan asiointiin. Asiakkaan näkökulmasta tämä tarkoittaa usein sitä, että hänen oppimansa asiointitapa muuttuu. Asiakas kokee haittana sen, että joutuu panostamaan uuden asiointitavan opettelemiseen ja odottaa tämän muutoksen tuovan hänelle hyötyjä. Monikanavaisuuden hyödyt asiakkaalle punnitaan tässä muutostilanteessa. Palveluntarjoaja odottaa monikanavamallin tuovan kustannussäästöjä, sillä kanavavalinnat ovat keino kehittää asiakkuuksia ja vaikuttaa yrityksen kannattavuuteen pitkällä aikajänteellä. Monikanavamallin toteuttaminen vaatii palveluntarjoajalta alkuvaiheessa resursseja, investointeja ja halutun muutoksen tavoitteellista johtamista. Tutkittavat asiakkaat valittiin Suomen Posti Oyj:n Yritykset ja yritykset –asiakassegmentistä. Tutkimuksessa ei löytynyt asiakaskohtaisia eroja asiakkaiden odotuksista palveluntarjoajien monikanavamalleihin, mutta hyötyodotusten suhteen tunnistettiin kolme erilaista asiakastyyppiä: kustannussäästöjä odottavat hintaorientoituneet asiakkaat, palvelun entistä parempaa sujumista odottavat palveluorientoituneet asiakkaat ja oman valinnanvapautensa merkitystä painottavat asiakassuhdeorientoituneet asiakkaat. Palveluntarjoajan tulee pystyä viestimään ja argumentoimaan asiointitavan muutoksesta kullekin asiakkaalle merkityksellisellä tavalla. Teorian ja empirian pohjalta voidaan sanoa, että asiakkaan ja palveluntarjoajan odotukset voidaan yhdistää muodostettaessa palveluntarjoajan monikanavamallia. Tämä edellyttää, että palveluntarjoaja tuntee asiakkaansa niin hyvin, että tietää millaiset eri asiakkaiden hyötyodotukset ovat.
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In this thesis a control system for an intelligent low voltage energy grid is presented, focusing on the control system created by using a multi-agent approach which makes it versatile and easy to expand according to the future needs. The control system is capable of forecasting the future energy consumption and decisions making on its own without human interaction when countering problems. The control system is a part of the St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University’s smart grid project that aims to create a smart grid for the university’s own use. The concept of the smart grid is interesting also for the consumers as it brings new possibilities to control own energy consumption and to save money. Smart grids makes it possible to monitor the energy consumption in real-time and to change own habits to save money. The intelligent grid also brings possibilities to integrate the renewable energy sources to the global or the local energy production much better than the current systems. Consumers can also sell their extra power to the global grid if they want.
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Professions are a special category of occupations that possesses exclusive rights over its domain of expertise. Professions apply expert knowledge in their work by using professional discretion and judgment to solve their clients’ problems. With control over their expert knowledge base, professions are able to control the supply of practitioners in their field and regulate the practice in their market. Professionalization is the process during which occupations attempt to gain the status of a profession. The benefits of becoming a profession are extensive – professional autonomy, social and financial rewards, prestige, status, and an exclusive community are only a few of the privileges that established professions possess. Many aspiring occupations have tried and failed to gain the status of a profession and one of these groups is the occupation of controllers in Finland. The objective of this study to uncover, why controllers have not professionalized, which properties of the occupation correspond with the elements generally regarded to pertain to professions, and which aspects of the occupational group may hinder the professionalization project. The professionalization project of controllers is analyzed using a multi-actor model of professionalization, in which practitioners, clients, the state, training institutions, and employing organizations are considered to affect the project. The properties of the occupation of controllers are compared to features generally associated with professions. The research methodology for this thesis is qualitative, and the study is conducted as an exploratory research. The data is primarily gathered using semi-structured interviews, which were conducted between March and May 2013 lasting from 40 minutes to an hour. In total, four controllers were interviewed, who worked for different companies operating in different industries, and whose experience of working as a controller varied between a few years to nearly 15 years. The data in this study indicates that although controllers possess qualities that distinguish professions from other occupational groups, the professionalization of controllers may not be plausible. Controllers enjoy considerable autonomy in organizations, and they possess a strong orientation towards serving their clients. The more profound problem with the occupation is its non-exclusive, indistinct knowledge base that does not rely solely on a single knowledge base. Controllers’ expertise is relatively organization-specific and built on several different fields of knowledge and not just management accounting, which could be considered as their primary knowledge base. In addition, controllers have not organized themselves, which is a quintessential, but by no means a sufficient prerequisite for professionalization.
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Kysynnän ja tarjonnan epävarmuudet ovat nykyisin arkipäivää useilla toimialoilla. Elämme epävarmuuden suhteen ennen näkemättömiä aikoja, minkä on arvioitu jatkuvan myös tulevaisuudessa. Yritysten tilauskannat ovat lyhyitä, ja tilaukset viivästyvät tai peruuntuvat kokonaan. Toisaalta tarjonnan epävarmuudet aiheuttavat asiakasyrityksille haasteita esimerkiksi toimitusmyöhästymisten muodossa. Tuotannon ollessa hajaantunut verkostoihin yksittäisten yritysten toiminta ja päätökset vaikuttavat toisten verkostoyritysten toimintaan. Tämän takia epävarmuuden aiheuttamista muutoksista ja poikkeamista tulisi tiedottaa kumppaniyrityksiä, jotta kaikki pysyisivät samalla kellotaajuudella. Operatiivisen ja taktisen tiedon jakaminen on nykyisissä toimitusketjuissa jo arkipäivää, mutta yritysten välisistä rajapinnoista löytyy edelleen kehitettävää. Riittävästä ei kiinnitetä huomiota vastaanottajan kykyyn ja tapaan hyödyntää informaatiota – varsinkaan muutostilanteissa. Ajan/nopeuden ollessa yhä tärkeämpi kilpailutekijä informaation ajoituksella on kriittinen merkitys kysyntä-toimitusketjujen kokonaissuorituskykyyn. Toisin sanoen, millä ajanhetkellä tietoa tulisi jakaa, jotta kumppani pystyisi hyödyntämään saamaansa tietoa mahdollisimman hyvin. Kysyntä-toimitusketjun synkronoinnilla tarkoitetaan tässä väitöstutkimuksessa nimenomaan aikatekijään keskittymistä yritysten välisessä päätöksenteossa ja informaation jakamisessa toimitusketjun kokonaissuorituskyvyn parantamiseksi. Tutkimus kytkeytyy toimitusketjukoordinoinnin tieteelliseen keskusteluun. Koordinointiteorian keskeinen osa ovat riippuvuussuhteet, joita johdetaan koordinointimekanismien avulla. Kysyntätoimitusketjun synkronointia on mallinnettu aikaisemmin VOP-OPP-mallin (Value Offering Point – Order Penetration Point) ja sen johdannaisten avulla. Näissä malleissa asiakasyrityksen kysyntäketju ja toimittajayrityksen toimitusketju ovat keskinäisessä riippuvuussuhteessa, jota johdetaan päätöksenteon synkronoinnin ja informaation jakamisen koordinointimekanismeilla. VOP-OPP-malli johdannaisineen eivät kuitenkaan huomioi epävarman toimintaympäristön vaikutuksia synkronointiin. Näissä malleissa informaation ainoana laatudimensiona tarkasteltava aikatekijä on liian kapea-alainen näkökulma synkronointiin epävarmassa ympäristössä. Lisäksi nämä mallit keskittyvät vain yksisuuntaiseen, kysyntälähtöiseen, synkronointiin jättäen huomioimatta tarjontalähtöisen synkronoinnin. Aikatekijä- ja kokonaissuorituskykypainotustensa takia VOP-OPP-malli tarjosi kuitenkin hyvän lähtöfilosofian uusien synkronointimallien kehittämiseen. Väitöstutkimus toteutettiin hypoteettis-deduktiivisena tapaustutkimuksena, jossa ensin luotiin kirjallisuuden perusteella uudet teoreettiset synkronointimalliehdotukset. Tämän jälkeen ehdotusten toimivuutta arvioitiin käytännön kysyntä-toimitusketjuissa. Tutkimuksen uutuusarvo liittyy kysyntä-toimitusketjun synkronoinnin keskeisten piirteiden systeemiseen mallintamiseen epävarmassa toimintaympäristössä. Kontribuutiona esitetään kysyntä-toimitusketjun synkronoinnin moniulotteinen kokonaismalli, joka sisältää koordinointimekanismeina päätöksenteon synkronoinnin, informaation läpinäkyvyyden sekä asiakas- ja toimittajapään joustot. Tiedon vaihtoa mallissa tarkastellaan kaksisuuntaisesti – kysyntä- ja tarjontalähtöisesti. Informaation laatudimensioina mallissa ovat informaation ajoitus, luotettavuus ja tarkkuus. Kokonaismalli sisältää kolme alimallia: Demand Visibility Point – Demand Penetration Point (DVP-DPP) on kysyntälähtöisen synkronoinnin malli, Supply Visibility Point – Supply Information Penetration Point (SVP-SIPP) on tarjontalähtöisen synkronoinnin malli ja Integroitu DVP-DPP - SVP-SIPP-malli kytkee edellä mainitut mallit toisiinsa. Näissä alimalleissa informaation eri luokkia ovat tilausta edeltävä, tilaukseen liittyvä, tilauksen jälkeinen ja sovitun toimitusajankohdan jälkeinen kysyntä- ja tarjontatieto. Käytännön hyödyntämisen näkökulmasta mallit toimivat ns. mentaalitason koordinointimekanismeina, joiden tarkoitus on herättää toimitusketjukumppanit tavoittelemaan kokonaissuorituskyvyn parantamista oman edun tavoittelemisen sijasta. Tutkimuksen päärajoitteena on sen keskittyminen ainoastaan kahdenvälisiin yhteistyösuhteisiin, mikä tarjoaa nykyisessä verkostoituneessa toimintaympäristössä varsin kapean kuvan käytännön synkronointihaasteisiin.
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The Robocup Rescue Simulation System (RCRSS) is a dynamic system of multi-agent interaction, simulating a large-scale urban disaster scenario. Teams of rescue agents are charged with the tasks of minimizing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage while competing against limitations on time, communication, and awareness. This thesis provides the first known attempt of applying Genetic Programming (GP) to the development of behaviours necessary to perform well in the RCRSS. Specifically, this thesis studies the suitability of GP to evolve the operational behaviours required of each type of rescue agent in the RCRSS. The system developed is evaluated in terms of the consistency with which expected solutions are the target of convergence as well as by comparison to previous competition results. The results indicate that GP is capable of converging to some forms of expected behaviour, but that additional evolution in strategizing behaviours must be performed in order to become competitive. An enhancement to the standard GP algorithm is proposed which is shown to simplify the initial search space allowing evolution to occur much quicker. In addition, two forms of population are employed and compared in terms of their apparent effects on the evolution of control structures for intelligent rescue agents. The first is a single population in which each individual is comprised of three distinct trees for the respective control of three types of agents, the second is a set of three co-evolving subpopulations one for each type of agent. Multiple populations of cooperating individuals appear to achieve higher proficiencies in training, but testing on unseen instances raises the issue of overfitting.
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In an abstract two-agent model, we show that every deterministic joint choice function compatible with the hypothesis that agents act noncooperatively is also compatible with the hypothesis that they act cooperatively. the converse is false.
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In this paper, we study the macroeconomic implications of sectoral heterogeneity and, in particular, heterogeneity in price setting, through the lens of a highly disaggregated multi-sector model. The model incorporates several realistic features and is estimated using a mix of aggregate and sectoral U.S. data. The frequencies of price changes implied by our estimates are remarkably consistent with those reported in micro-based studies, especially for non-sale prices. The model is used to study (i) the contribution of sectoral characteristics to the observed cross sectional heterogeneity in sectoral output and inflation responses to a monetary policy shock, (ii) the implications of sectoral price rigidity for aggregate output and inflation dynamics and for cost pass-through, and (iii) the role of sectoral shocks in explaining sectoral prices and quantities.
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