Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.

Reputation and honesty in a market for information

Previous works on asymmetric information in asset markets tendto focus on the potential gains in the asset market itself. We focus on the market for information and conduct an experimental study to explore, in a game of finite but uncertain duration, whether reputation can be an effective constraint on deliberate misinformation. At the beginning of each period, an uninformed potential asset buyer can purchase information, at a fixed price and from a fully-informed source, about the value of the asset in that period. The informational insiders cannot purchase the asset and are given short-term incentives to provide false information when the asset value is low. Our model predicts that, in accordance with the Folk Theorem, Pareto-superior outcomes featuring truthful revelation should be sustainable. However, this depends critically on beliefs about rationality and behavior. We find that, overall, sellers are truthful 89% of the time. More significantly, the observed frequency of truthfulness is 81% when the asset value is low. Our result is consistent with both mixed-strategy and trigger strategy interpretations and provides evidence that most subjects correctly anticipate rational behavior. We discuss applications to financial markets, media regulation, and the stability of cartels.

Hazardous substances in frequently used professional cleaning products.

A growing number of studies have identified cleaners as a group at risk for adverse health effects of the skin and the respiratory tract. Chemical substances present in cleaning products could be responsible for these effects. Currently, only limited information is available about irritant and health hazardous chemical substances found in cleaning products. We hypothesized that chemical substances present in cleaning products are known health hazardous substances that might be involved in adverse health effects of the skin and the respiratory tract. We performed a systematic review of cleaning products used in the Swiss cleaning sector. We surveyed Swiss professional cleaning companies (n = 1476) to identify the most used products (n = 105) for inclusion. Safety data sheets (SDSs) were reviewed and hazardous substances present in cleaning products were tabulated with current European and global harmonized system hazard labels. Professional cleaning products are mixtures of substances (arithmetic mean 3.5 +/- 2.8), and more than 132 different chemical substances were identified in 105 products. The main groups of chemicals were fragrances, glycol ethers, surfactants, solvents; and to a lesser extent, phosphates, salts, detergents, pH-stabilizers, acids, and bases. Up to 75% of products contained irritant (Xi), 64% harmful (Xn) and 28% corrosive (C) labeled substances. Hazards for eyes (59%) and skin (50%), and hazards by ingestion (60%) were the most reported. Cleaning products potentially give rise to simultaneous exposures to different chemical substances. As professional cleaners represent a large workforce, and cleaning products are widely used, it is a major public health issue to better understand these exposures. The list of substances provided in this study contains important information for future occupational exposure assessment studies.

Effect of age toxicokinetics among human volunteers exposed to propylene glycol monomethyl ether (PGME)

Rationale: Aging adults represent the fastest growing population segment in many countries. Physiological and metabolic changes in the aging process may alter how aging adults respond to exposures compared to younger workers. Current preventive workplace exposure measures may therefore not be sufficiently protective for the aging workforce. In a controlled human toxicokinetic study (exposure chamber; 12m3), the volunteers (n=11) were men and women over the age of 58 years and exposed to a commonly used, low neurotoxic glycol ether; PGME (CAS no. 107-98- 2) (50 ppm, 6 hours). Oxidative metabolism (Michaelis-Menten) is the major pathway and conjugation the minor in humans. Metabolites, conjugated and free PGME are eliminated through the kidneys, and the elimination kinetics is dose-dependent (0 order). Scope: (1) compare the toxicokinetic profile of PGME obtained in the aging volunteers (58- 62 years) to young volunteers (20-25 years) from a previous study; (2) Test the predictive power of an existing PGME toxicokinetic compartment model for aging persons against urinary PGME concentrations found in volunteers from our experimental study. Experimental procedure: Urine samples were collected before, every 2-hour during exposures for six hours, and ad-lib for additional 20 hours. Urinary analysis of free and total PGME was performed using capillary GC/FID. The toxicokinetic model (Berkley Madonna software) was ageadjusted. Results. Urinary free and total PGME concentration rose rapidly, and did not reach an apparent plateau level during exposure. Less conjugation was observed in the older group. The predictive model developed for the young group predicted well total PGME in the aging group but not free PGME. The age adjusted toxicokinetic model's Vmax1 had to be changed for the aging group, implying slower enzymatic pathway. Conclusion: The toxicokinetic model did not predict well if only the physiological parameters were adjusted for aging adults (existing model); a substance specific metabolic rate parameter was also needed.

Homotopy Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras

This paper provides an explicit cofibrant resolution of the operad encoding Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras. Thus it defines the notion of homotopy Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras with the required homotopy properties. To define this resolution we extend the theory of Koszul duality to operads and properads that are defind by quadratic and linear relations. The operad encoding Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras is shown to be Koszul in this sense. This allows us to prove a Poincare-Birkhoff-Witt Theorem for such an operad and to give an explicit small quasi-free resolution for it. This particular resolution enables us to describe the deformation theory and homotopy theory of BV-algebras and of homotopy BV-algebras. We show that any topological conformal field theory carries a homotopy BV-algebra structure which lifts the BV-algebra structure on homology. The same result is proved for the singular chain complex of the double loop space of a topological space endowed with an action of the circle. We also prove the cyclic Deligne conjecture with this cofibrant resolution of the operad BV. We develop the general obstruction theory for algebras over the Koszul resolution of a properad and apply it to extend a conjecture of Lian-Zuckerman, showing that certain vertex algebras have an explicit homotopy BV-algebra structure.

Direct Fourier Tomographic Reconstruction Image-To-Image Filter

We present an open-source ITK implementation of a directFourier method for tomographic reconstruction, applicableto parallel-beam x-ray images. Direct Fourierreconstruction makes use of the central-slice theorem tobuild a polar 2D Fourier space from the 1D transformedprojections of the scanned object, that is resampled intoa Cartesian grid. Inverse 2D Fourier transform eventuallyyields the reconstructed image. Additionally, we providea complex wrapper to the BSplineInterpolateImageFunctionto overcome ITKâeuro?s current lack for image interpolatorsdealing with complex data types. A sample application ispresented and extensively illustrated on the Shepp-Loganhead phantom. We show that appropriate input zeropaddingand 2D-DFT oversampling rates together with radial cubicb-spline interpolation improve 2D-DFT interpolationquality and are efficient remedies to reducereconstruction artifacts.

Mortality among 24,865 workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in three electrical capacitor manufacturing plants: a ten-year update.

The objective of this analysis was to evaluate mortality among a cohort of 24,865 capacitor-manufacturing workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at plants in Indiana, Massachusetts, and New York and followed for mortality through 2008. Cumulative PCB exposure was estimated using plant-specific job-exposure matrices. External comparisons to US and state-specific populations used standardized mortality ratios, adjusted for gender, race, age and calendar year. Among long-term workers employed 3 months or longer, within-cohort comparisons used standardized rate ratios and multivariable Poisson regression modeling. Through 2008, more than one million person-years at risk and 8749 deaths were accrued. Among long-term employees, all-cause and all-cancer mortality were not elevated; of the a priori outcomes assessed only melanoma mortality was elevated. Mortality was elevated for some outcomes of a priori interest among subgroups of long-term workers: all cancer, intestinal cancer and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (women); melanoma (men); melanoma and brain and nervous system cancer (Indiana plant); and melanoma and multiple myeloma (New York plant). Standardized rates of stomach and uterine cancer and multiple myeloma mortality increased with estimated cumulative PCB exposure. Poisson regression modeling showed significant associations with estimated cumulative PCB exposure for prostate and stomach cancer mortality. For other outcomes of a priori interest--rectal, liver, ovarian, breast, and thyroid cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Alzheimer disease, and Parkinson disease--neither elevated mortality nor positive associations with PCB exposure were observed. Associations between estimated cumulative PCB exposure and stomach, uterine, and prostate cancer and myeloma mortality confirmed our previous positive findings.

Borcherds products and arithmetic intersection theory on Hilbert modular surfaces

We prove an arithmetic version of a theorem of Hirzebruch and Zagier saying that Hirzebruch-Zagier divisors on a Hilbert modular surface are the coefficients of an elliptic modular form of weight 2. Moreover, we determine the arithmetic selfintersection number of the line bundle of modular forms equipped with its Petersson metric on a regular model of a Hilbert modular surface, and we study Faltings heights of arithmetic Hirzebruch-Zagier divisors.

Bounds on multisecant lines

The purpose of this paper is two fold. First, we give an upper bound on the orderof a multisecant line to an integral arithmetically Cohen-Macaulay subscheme in Pn of codimension two in terms of the Hilbert function. Secondly, we givean explicit description of the singular locus of the blow up of an arbitrary local ring at a complete intersection ideal. This description is used to refine standardlinking theorem. These results are tied together by the construction of sharp examples for the bound, which uses the linking theorems.

Semi-purity of tempered Deligne cohomology

In this paper we define the formal and tempered Deligne cohomology groups, that are obtained by applying the Deligne complex functor to the complexes of formal differential forms and tempered currents respectively. We then prove the existence of a duality between them, a vanishing theorem for the former and a semipurity property for the latter. The motivation of these results comes from the study of covariant arithmetic Chow groups. The semipurity property of tempered Deligne cohomology implies, in particular, that several definitions of covariant arithmetic Chow groups agree for projective arithmetic varieties.

Concentration-dependent half-lives of polychlorinated biphenyl in sera from an occupational cohort.

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are carcinogenic. Estimating PCB half-life in the body based on levels in sera from exposed workers is complicated by the fact that occupational exposure to PCBs was to commercial PCB products (such as Aroclors 1242 and 1254) comprised of varying mixtures of PCB congeners. Half-lives were estimated using sera donated by 191 capacitor manufacturing plant workers in 1976 during PCB use (1946-1977), and post-exposure (1979, 1983, and 1988). Our aims were to: (1) determine the role of covariates such as gender on the half-life estimates, and (2) compare our results with other published half-life estimates based on exposed workers. All serum PCB levels were adjusted for PCB background levels. A linear spline model with a single knot was used to estimate two separate linear equations for the first two serum draws (Equation A) and the latter two (Equation B). Equation A gave half-life estimates of 1.74 years and 6.01 years for Aroclor 1242 and Aroclor 1254, respectively. Estimates were 21.83 years for Aroclor 1242 and 133.33 years for Aroclor 1254 using Equation B. High initial body burden was associated with rapid PCB elimination in workers at or shortly after the time they were occupationally exposed and slowed down considerably when the dose reached background PCB levels. These concentration-dependent half-life estimates had a transition point of 138.57 and 34.78 ppb for Aroclor 1242 and 1254, respectively. This result will help in understanding the toxicological and epidemiological impact of exposure to PCBs in humans.

A pseudo-spectral method for simulating of poro-elastic seismic wave propagation in complex borehole environments

We present a novel numerical approach for the comprehensive, flexible, and accurate simulation of poro-elastic wave propagation in cylindrical coordinates. An important application of this method is the modeling of complex seismic wave phenomena in fluid-filled boreholes, which represents a major, and as of yet largely unresolved, computational problem in exploration geophysics. In view of this, we consider a numerical mesh consisting of three concentric domains representing the borehole fluid in the center, the borehole casing and the surrounding porous formation. The spatial discretization is based on a Chebyshev expansion in the radial direction, Fourier expansions in the other directions, and a Runge-Kutta integration scheme for the time evolution. A domain decomposition method based on the method of characteristics is used to match the boundary conditions at the fluid/porous-solid and porous-solid/porous-solid interfaces. The viability and accuracy of the proposed method has been tested and verified in 2D polar coordinates through comparisons with analytical solutions as well as with the results obtained with a corresponding, previously published, and independently benchmarked solution for 2D Cartesian coordinates. The proposed numerical solution also satisfies the reciprocity theorem, which indicates that the inherent singularity associated with the origin of the polar coordinate system is handled adequately.

Analysis of dyes in illicit pills (amphetamine and derivatives)

The determination of dyes present in illicit pills is shown to be useful and easy-to-get information in strategic and tactical drug intelligence. An analytical strategy including solid-phase extraction (SPE) thin-layer chromatography (TLC) and capillary zone electrophoresis equipped with a diode array detector (CZE-DAD) was developed to identify and quantify 14 hydrosoluble, acidic, synthetic food dyes allowed in the European Community. Indeed, these may be the most susceptible dyes to be found in illicit pills through their availability and easiness of use. The results show (1) that this analytical method is well adapted to small samples such as illicit pills, (2) that most dyes actually found belong to hydrosoluble, acidic, synthetic food dyes allowed in the European Community, and (3) that this evidence turns out to be important in drug intelligence and may be assessed into a Bayesian framework.