Ameaças à vegetação dunar

As paisagens dunares são sistemas de elevado dinamismo, devido à proximidade do mar e à extrema mobilidade do substrato arenoso e prevê-se que venham a ser severamente afetadas pelas alterações ambientais globais. As dunas são depósitos de areia criados por processos eólicos e apresentam uma vegetação muito característica. Estes depósitos de areia em conjunto com a vegetação formam uma barreira essencial ao avanço do mar durante as marés altas de águas vivas e tempestades. Em Portugal, a degradação dos ecossistemas costeiros é muito preocupante. O problema das espécies exóticas invasoras agravou-se, aumentando a pressão sobre as plantas nativas. Embora este problema não seja o único motivo da degradação dos ecossistemas costeiros, este trabalho pretende divulgar as plantas dunares da zona costeira de Matosinhos, sensibilizar para a proteção e conservação das dunas e alertar para o facto de diversas plantas invasoras rapidamente colonizarem espaços abertos, pondo em causa e estabilidade dos ecossistemas costeiros. O conhecimento detalhado destes ecossistemas permitirá a aplicação de processos de vigilância e monitorização bem como o restauro ecológico de áreas dunares degradadas.

Sur les tests lisses d'ajustement dans le context des series chronologiques

La plupart des modèles en statistique classique repose sur une hypothèse sur la distribution des données ou sur une distribution sous-jacente aux données. La validité de cette hypothèse permet de faire de l’inférence, de construire des intervalles de confiance ou encore de tester la fiabilité du modèle. La problématique des tests d’ajustement vise à s’assurer de la conformité ou de la cohérence de l’hypothèse avec les données disponibles. Dans la présente thèse, nous proposons des tests d’ajustement à la loi normale dans le cadre des séries chronologiques univariées et vectorielles. Nous nous sommes limités à une classe de séries chronologiques linéaires, à savoir les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile (ARMA ou VARMA dans le cas vectoriel). Dans un premier temps, au cas univarié, nous proposons une généralisation du travail de Ducharme et Lafaye de Micheaux (2004) dans le cas où la moyenne est inconnue et estimée. Nous avons estimé les paramètres par une méthode rarement utilisée dans la littérature et pourtant asymptotiquement efficace. En effet, nous avons rigoureusement montré que l’estimateur proposé par Brockwell et Davis (1991, section 10.8) converge presque sûrement vers la vraie valeur inconnue du paramètre. De plus, nous fournissons une preuve rigoureuse de l’inversibilité de la matrice des variances et des covariances de la statistique de test à partir de certaines propriétés d’algèbre linéaire. Le résultat s’applique aussi au cas où la moyenne est supposée connue et égale à zéro. Enfin, nous proposons une méthode de sélection de la dimension de la famille d’alternatives de type AIC, et nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de cette méthode. L’outil proposé ici est basé sur une famille spécifique de polynômes orthogonaux, à savoir les polynômes de Legendre. Dans un second temps, dans le cas vectoriel, nous proposons un test d’ajustement pour les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile avec une paramétrisation structurée. La paramétrisation structurée permet de réduire le nombre élevé de paramètres dans ces modèles ou encore de tenir compte de certaines contraintes particulières. Ce projet inclut le cas standard d’absence de paramétrisation. Le test que nous proposons s’applique à une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales. Nous illustrons cela dans le cas particulier des polynômes de Legendre et d’Hermite. Dans le cas particulier des polynômes d’Hermite, nous montrons que le test obtenu est invariant aux transformations affines et qu’il est en fait une généralisation de nombreux tests existants dans la littérature. Ce projet peut être vu comme une généralisation du premier dans trois directions, notamment le passage de l’univarié au multivarié ; le choix d’une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales ; et enfin la possibilité de spécifier des relations ou des contraintes dans la formulation VARMA. Nous avons procédé dans chacun des projets à une étude de simulation afin d’évaluer le niveau et la puissance des tests proposés ainsi que de les comparer aux tests existants. De plus des applications aux données réelles sont fournies. Nous avons appliqué les tests à la prévision de la température moyenne annuelle du globe terrestre (univarié), ainsi qu’aux données relatives au marché du travail canadien (bivarié). Ces travaux ont été exposés à plusieurs congrès (voir par exemple Tagne, Duchesne et Lafaye de Micheaux (2013a, 2013b, 2014) pour plus de détails). Un article basé sur le premier projet est également soumis dans une revue avec comité de lecture (Voir Duchesne, Lafaye de Micheaux et Tagne (2016)).

Shale gas in Europe: much ado about little? Egmont Paper No. 64, March 2014

Introduction. Shale gas is an unconventional form of gas1 because its extraction is more difficult or less economical than that of conventional natural gas. It has become an important item of energy policy during the last years since new processes have allowed its extraction. In the medium term, shale gas should foster a reinforcement of the gas part in the world’s energy mix. In 2011, the IEA released an influential report entitled “Are we entering a golden age of gas?” This report suggests that shale gas could help substantially boost global gas use.2 It also warns at the same time that this success could bring into question the international goal of limiting the long-term increase in the global temperature to 2° C above pre-industrial levels. In the world economy, the impact of shale gas is increasing rapidly (especially in the USA, albeit apparently not as significantly as expected3). In the EU, its perspectives remain uncertain, for many reasons. Estimates are not reliable. Shale gas exploitation remains a controversial issue due to geology, lack of infrastructure and also fears for the environment and public health. The EU institutions seem to have a favorable attitude towards shale gas development while the Member States’ attitude seems to vary from enthusiasm to hesitation or opposition. Public opinion on the issue appears quite divided everywhere. This brief paper will examine various estimations of potential resources in the EU (§ 1), the potential costs and benefits (§ 2), the initiatives taken by the EU institutions (§ 3) and the national authorities (§ 4), and finally the emerging EU framework (§ 5). The conclusion is, rather surprisingly, that whatever happens on this front, this will not modify the present structural challenges of the EU in the domains of climate and energy.4

Sur les tests lisses d'ajustement dans le context des series chronologiques

La plupart des modèles en statistique classique repose sur une hypothèse sur la distribution des données ou sur une distribution sous-jacente aux données. La validité de cette hypothèse permet de faire de l’inférence, de construire des intervalles de confiance ou encore de tester la fiabilité du modèle. La problématique des tests d’ajustement vise à s’assurer de la conformité ou de la cohérence de l’hypothèse avec les données disponibles. Dans la présente thèse, nous proposons des tests d’ajustement à la loi normale dans le cadre des séries chronologiques univariées et vectorielles. Nous nous sommes limités à une classe de séries chronologiques linéaires, à savoir les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile (ARMA ou VARMA dans le cas vectoriel). Dans un premier temps, au cas univarié, nous proposons une généralisation du travail de Ducharme et Lafaye de Micheaux (2004) dans le cas où la moyenne est inconnue et estimée. Nous avons estimé les paramètres par une méthode rarement utilisée dans la littérature et pourtant asymptotiquement efficace. En effet, nous avons rigoureusement montré que l’estimateur proposé par Brockwell et Davis (1991, section 10.8) converge presque sûrement vers la vraie valeur inconnue du paramètre. De plus, nous fournissons une preuve rigoureuse de l’inversibilité de la matrice des variances et des covariances de la statistique de test à partir de certaines propriétés d’algèbre linéaire. Le résultat s’applique aussi au cas où la moyenne est supposée connue et égale à zéro. Enfin, nous proposons une méthode de sélection de la dimension de la famille d’alternatives de type AIC, et nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de cette méthode. L’outil proposé ici est basé sur une famille spécifique de polynômes orthogonaux, à savoir les polynômes de Legendre. Dans un second temps, dans le cas vectoriel, nous proposons un test d’ajustement pour les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile avec une paramétrisation structurée. La paramétrisation structurée permet de réduire le nombre élevé de paramètres dans ces modèles ou encore de tenir compte de certaines contraintes particulières. Ce projet inclut le cas standard d’absence de paramétrisation. Le test que nous proposons s’applique à une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales. Nous illustrons cela dans le cas particulier des polynômes de Legendre et d’Hermite. Dans le cas particulier des polynômes d’Hermite, nous montrons que le test obtenu est invariant aux transformations affines et qu’il est en fait une généralisation de nombreux tests existants dans la littérature. Ce projet peut être vu comme une généralisation du premier dans trois directions, notamment le passage de l’univarié au multivarié ; le choix d’une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales ; et enfin la possibilité de spécifier des relations ou des contraintes dans la formulation VARMA. Nous avons procédé dans chacun des projets à une étude de simulation afin d’évaluer le niveau et la puissance des tests proposés ainsi que de les comparer aux tests existants. De plus des applications aux données réelles sont fournies. Nous avons appliqué les tests à la prévision de la température moyenne annuelle du globe terrestre (univarié), ainsi qu’aux données relatives au marché du travail canadien (bivarié). Ces travaux ont été exposés à plusieurs congrès (voir par exemple Tagne, Duchesne et Lafaye de Micheaux (2013a, 2013b, 2014) pour plus de détails). Un article basé sur le premier projet est également soumis dans une revue avec comité de lecture (Voir Duchesne, Lafaye de Micheaux et Tagne (2016)).

Abundance of Globigerinoides sacculifer and Globigerinoides ruber and oxygen and carbon stable isotopes of different planktonic foraminifers at DSDP Holes 78-541 and 78-543

The stable isotope study of monospecific planktonic foraminifer samples recovered at Sites 541 and 543 during Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 78A indicates a warming during the early Pliocene about 4.7 to 4.3 Ma. The changes in the late Pliocene oxygen isotope record around 2.9 to 2.7 Ma coincide with changes in the circulation pattern resulting from the closure of the Panama seaway and the beginning of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The Pleistocene record is characterized by 0.5 to 1.0 per mil fluctuations in the d18O record. These fluctuations reflect salinity changes, rather than temperature changes, as indicated by Globigerinoides ruber and G. sacculifer abundances. The salinity changes may be explained by a drifting of (1) the highly saline Central Water Mass of the southern Sargasso Sea, and (2) lower-salinity ocean water displaced by the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone into the Caribbean region during cooler intervals.

Geochemistry and grain-size of sediment core PC29A, Quitralco Fjord, Chilean Patagonia

The climate of Chilean Patagonia is strongly influenced by the southern westerlies, which control the amount and latitudinal distribution of precipitation in the southern Andes. In austral summer, the Southern Westerly Wind Belt (SWWB) is restricted to the high latitudes. It expands northward in winter, which results in a strong precipitation seasonality between 35 and 45°S. Here, we present a new precipitation seasonality proxy record from Quitralco fjord (46°S), where relatively small latitudinal shifts in the SWWB result in large changes in precipitation seasonality. Our 1400 yr record is based on sedimentological and geochemical data obtained on a sediment core collected in front of a small river that drains the Patagonian Andes, which makes this site particularly sensitive to changes in river discharge. Our results show Fe/Al and Ti/Al values that are low between 600 and 1200 CE, increasing at 1200-1500 CE, and high between 1500 and 1950 CE. The increasing Fe/Al and Ti/Al values reflect a decrease in mean sediment grain-size from 30 to 20 µm, which is interpreted as a decrease in seasonal floods resulting from an equatorward shift of the SWWB. Our results suggest that, compared to present-day conditions, the SWWB was located in a more poleward position before 1200 CE. It gradually shifted towards the equator in 1200-1500 CE, where it remained in a sustained position until 1950 CE. The comparison of our record with published regional sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions for the late Holocene shows that equatorward shifts in the SWWB are systematically coeval with decreasing SSTs and vice versa, which resembles fluctuations over glacial-interglacial timescales. We argue that the synchronicity between SST and SWWB changes during the last 1400 years represents the response of the SWWB to temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere.

Sedimentological investigations and age model on sediment core PS2561-2

Benthic d13C values (F. wuellerstorfi), kaolinite/chlorite ratios and sortable silt median grain sizes in sediments of a core from the abyssal Agulhas Basin record the varying impact of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) during the last 200 ka. The data indicate that NADW influence decreased during glacials and increased during interglacials, in concert with the global climatic changes of the late Quaternary. In contrast, AABW displays a much more complex behaviour. Two independent modes of deep-water formation contributed to the AABW production in the Weddell Sea: 1) brine rejection during sea ice formation in polynyas and in the sea ice zone (Polynya Mode) and 2) super-cooling of Ice Shelf Water (ISW) beneath the Antarctic ice shelves (Ice Shelf Mode). Varying contributions of the two modes lead to a high millennial-scale variability of AABW production and export to the Agulhas Basin. Highest rates of AABW production occur during early glacials when increased sea ice formation and an active ISW production formed substantial amounts of deep water. Once full glacial conditions were reached and the Antarctic ice sheet grounded on the shelf, ISW production shut down and only brine rejection generated moderate amounts of deep water. AABW production rates dropped to an absolute minimum during Terminations I and II and the Marine Isotope Transition (MIS) 4/3 transition. Reduced sea ice formation concurrent with an enhanced fresh water influx from melting ice lowered the density of the surface water in the Weddell Sea, thus further reducing deep water formation via brine rejection, while the ISW formation was not yet operating again. During interglacials and the moderate interglacial MIS 3 both brine formation and ISW production were operating, contributing various amounts to AABW formation in the Weddell Sea.

(Table 1) Age of sediments with anomalously high Hg concentrations in core BDP-98, Lake Baikal

Mercury distribution was examined in the sediments of Lake Baikal that were sampled within the scope of the Baikal Drilling International Project in 1996-1999. The Hg concentrations in the ancient sediments are close to those in the modern sediments with the exception of a few peak values, whose ages coincide with those of active volcanism in adjacent areas. Mercury was demonstrated to be contained in the sediments in the adsorbed Hg0 mode, predominantly in relation with organic matter. When the organic matter of the bottom sediments is decomposed in the course of lithification, Hg is retained in the sediments adsorbed on the residual organic matter, and the concentration of this element corresponds to its initial content in the bottom sediments during their accumulation. Mercury concentrations in lithologically distinct bottom sediments of Lake Baikal and its sediments as a whole depend on the climate. Sediments that were formed during warm periods of time contain more Hg than those produced during cold periods or glaciation. Periodical variations in the Hg concentrations in the bottom sediments of Lake Baikal reflect the variations in the contents of this element in the Earth's atmosphere in the Late Cenozoic, which were, in turn, controlled by the climatic variations on the planet and, thus, can be used for detailed reconstructions of variations in the average global temperature near the planet's surface.

Age models of sediment cores from the North-West African continental margin

A statistical analysis ol 15 deep sea cores in the eastern North Atlantic off NW Africa revealed the typical fluctuation pattern of distinct species proups as has been described from various parts of the world ocean. Only the "WBF-group" appears to be correlated with global climatic changes, i.e. warmer periods as the Eemian and the Atlanticum. A partly antagonistic "High Productivity group" (HPR-group) is in general not linked with global changes but times of increased fertility in the surface water and the resulting flux of organic matter reaching the bottom. The groups were extracted from cluster analysis of more than 150 surface samples (HPR-group) and a factor analysis of selected cores (WBF-group). In contrast to previous studies the observed fluctuations can not be explained by drastic changes in bottom water masses, but by the pulsation of a distinct "High Productivity Patch" in space and time. At present, this patch is located below the well known upwelling area between 22° and 12° northern latitude. It shifted to the north (up to 27 °N) during the latest glacial period ( 18 ky), indicating an equivalent shift of upwelling productivity caused by advection of nutrient rich upwelling SACW-waters, probably during most of isotopic stages 2 and 3.

Benthic foraminifera of late Quaternary sediments in the northern North Atlantic

Four long sediment cores from locations in the Framstrait, the Norwegian-Greenland Seas and the northern North Atlantic were analysed in a high resolution sampling mode (1 - 2 cm density) for their benthic foraminiferal content. In particular the impact of the intense climatic changes at glacial/interglacial transitions (terminations I and II) on the benthic community have been of special interest. The faunal data were investigated by means of multivariate analysis and represented in their chronological occurence. The most prominent species of benthic foraminifera in the Norwegian-Greenland Seas are Oridorsalis umbonatus, Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi, the group of Cassidulina, Pyrgo rotalaria, Globocassidulina subglobosa and fragmented tubes of arenaceous species. The climatic signal of termination I as well as termination II is recorded in the fossil foraminiferal tests as divided transition from glacial to interglacial. The elder INDAR maximum (individuals accumulation rate = individuals/sq cm * 1.000 y; Norwegian-Greenland Seas: average 3.000 - 6.000 individuals/sq cm * 1.000 y; northern North Atlantic: average 150 individuals/sq cm * 1.000 y) is followed by a period of decreased values. The second, younger maximum reaches comparable values as the elder maximum. The interglacial INDAR are in average 700 individuals/sq cm * 1.000 y in the Norwegian-Greenland Seas and 200 individuals/sq cm * 1.000 y in average in the northern North Atlantic. The occurence of the elder INDAR maximum shows a distinct chronological transgressivity between the northern North Atlantic (12.400 ybp.) and the Framstrait (8.900 ybp.). The time shift from south to north amounts 3.500 yrs., the average expanding velocity 0,78 km per year. Within the Norwegian-Greenland Seas the average expanding velocity amounts 0,48 km per year. This chronological transgressivity is interpreted as impact of the progressive expanding of the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Current during the deglaciation. The dynamic of the faunal development is defined as increasing INDAR per time. The elder INDAR maximum shows in both glacial/interglacial transitions an exponential increase from south to north. Termination II is characterized by a general higher dynamic as termination I. By means of the high resolution sampling density the impact of regional isotopic recognized melt-water events is recognized by an increase of endobenthic and t-ubiquitous species in the Norwegian-Greenland Seas sediments. During termination I the relative minimum between both INDAR maxima occur chronological with an decrease of calculated sea surface temperatures. This is interpreted as indication of the close pelagic - benthic coupling. The climatic signal in the northern North Atlantic recorded in the fossil benthic foraminiferal community shows a lower amplitude as in the Norwegian-Greenland Seas. The occurence of the epibenthic Cibicidoides wuellersforfi allows to evaluate the variability of the bottom water mass. In general at all core locations increasing lateral bottom currents are recognized with the occurence of the second younger INDAR maximum. In comparison with various paleo-climatological data sets fossil benthic foraminifers show a distinct koherence with changes of the atmospheric temperatures, the SSTs and the postglacial sea level increase. The benthic foraminiferal fauna is bound indirectly on and indicative for regional climatic changes, but principal dependent upon global climatic changes.

Sea surface temperture reconstruction and planktonic foraminifera of ODP Hole 117-723A

In the western Arabian Sea (WAS), the highest seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) difference presently occurs between May and August. In order to gain an understanding on how monsoonal upwelling modulates the SST difference between these two months, we have computed SST for the months of May and August based on census counts of planktonic foraminifers by using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The SST difference between May and August exhibits three distinct phases: i) a moderate SST difference in the late Holocene (0-3.5 ka) is attributable to intense upwelling during August, ii) a minimum SST difference from 4 to 12 ka is due to weak upwelling during the month of August, and iii) the highest SST difference during the last glacial interval (19 to 22 ka) with high Globigerina bulloides % could have been caused by the occurrence of a prolonged upwelling season (from May through July) and maximum difference in the incoming solar radiation between May and August. Overall, variations in the SST difference between May and August show that the timing of intense upwelling in the Western Arabian Sea over the last 22 kyr has been variable over the months of June, July and August.

(Table 1) Abundances of Discoaster species in ODP Hole 130-806C

Members of the calcareous nannofossil genus Discoaster have been used extensively to subdivide Tertiary deep-sea sediments into biostratigraphic zones or subzones (e.g., Martini, 1971; Bukry, 1973). Haq and Lohmann (1976) mapped biogeographic migrations of this group through time and over latitude. They suggested that expansions and contractions of Discoaster-dominated assemblages across latitudes reflect sea-surface temperature changes. Subsequently, late Pliocene Discoaster species were counted at closely spaced sample intervals from various Atlantic sites (Backman et al., 1986; Backman and Pestiaux, 1987; Chepstow-Lusty et al., 1989, 1991), and Indian Ocean as well as Pacific Ocean sites (Chepstow-Lusty, 1990). In addition to the biostratigraphic information revealing positions and the precision by which the different late Pliocene Discoaster species can be determined, these studies also demonstrated that discoasters strongly fluctuate in abundance as a function of time. These abundance variations occur in equatorial as well as temperate temperature regimes, and show periodicities that reflect orbital frequencies. Chepstow-Lusty et al. (1989, 1991) also suggested that the oscillating abundances partly represent productivity pressure, because discoasters tend to show low abundances under high productivity conditions and vice versa. In the Pacific Ocean, counts showing late Pliocene Discoaster abundances exist from three sites, namely Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 677 in the eastern equatorial upwelling region, Core V28-179 from the central equatorial region, and Core V32-127 from the mid-latitude Hess Rise. The two Vema cores are condensed and show sedimentation rates below 0.5 cm/1000 yr, thus offering a poorly resolved stratigraphy. Hole 806C from the Ontong Java Plateau provided an opportunity to establish a highly resolved Discoaster record from the western extreme of the equatorial Pacific under an environmental setting that differed from ODP Site 677 by being less influenced by intense upwelling. The Discoaster counting technique is described by Backman and Shackleton (1983).

Sedimentology and paleontology on core Lz1104 from Lake Hjort, Greenland

Two sediment cores of 70 and 252 cm length were recovered from Hjort Sø, a small lake on Store Koldewey, Northeast Greenland, and studied with a multidisciplinary approach in order to reconstruct the local environmental history and to test the relevance of proxies for paleoenvironmental information. The basal sediments from the longer core are dominated by clastic matter, which was likely deposited during deglaciation of the lake basin. These clastic sediments are overlain by gyttja, which is also present throughout the shorter core. AMS radiocarbon dating was conducted on plant macrofossils of 11 samples from the gyttja in both cores. A reliable chronology was established for both cores, which dated the onset of organic accumulation at 9,500 cal. year BP. The Holocene temperature development, with an early to mid Holocene thermal maximum, is best reflected in the grain-size composition. Nutrient availability was apparently low during the early Holocene and led to low productivity in the lake and its vicinity. From ca. 7,000 cal. year BP, productivity in the lake increased significantly, probably induced by external nutrient input from goose excrements. From this time, micro- and macrofossil remains reflect relatively well the climate history of East Greenland, with a cooling during the middle Holocene, the medieval warming, and the Little Ice Age. The amount of organic matter in the sequence seems to be more affected by lake ice cover or by nutrient supply from the catchment than by temperature changes. The record from Hjort Sø thus reveals the difficulties in interpreting sedimentary records from high arctic regions.