Otimização de custos, consumos energéticos e emissões de gases com efeito de estufa na reabilitação de edifícios residenciais de baixa densidade

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

O impacto da gestão de fundo de maneio na rendibilidade das empresas durante a crise financeira: evidência europeia

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

A carta do presidente e o relato voluntário do capital intelectual: análise das empresas do segmento do novo mercado da BM&FBOVESPA

Dissertação de mestrado em Contabilidade

Pervasive decision support to predict football corners and goals by means of data mining

Football is considered nowadays one of the most popular sports. In the betting world, it has acquired an outstanding position, which moves millions of euros during the period of a single football match. The lack of profitability of football betting users has been stressed as a problem. This lack gave origin to this research proposal, which it is going to analyse the possibility of existing a way to support the users to increase their profits on their bets. Data mining models were induced with the purpose of supporting the gamblers to increase their profits in the medium/long term. Being conscience that the models can fail, the results achieved by four of the seven targets in the models are encouraging and suggest that the system can help to increase the profits. All defined targets have two possible classes to predict, for example, if there are more or less than 7.5 corners in a single game. The data mining models of the targets, more or less than 7.5 corners, 8.5 corners, 1.5 goals and 3.5 goals achieved the pre-defined thresholds. The models were implemented in a prototype, which it is a pervasive decision support system. This system was developed with the purpose to be an interface for any user, both for an expert user as to a user who has no knowledge in football games.

How does banking industry influence economic growth in Latin American countries?

Mestrado em Finanças

The role of biomass and biorefineries in a sustainable future

Some o f the biggest issues facing humanity in the 21st century include energy security, global warming and resource scarcity. These issues will affect every nation and Ireland is no exception. There is much research underway to uncover technologies that will allow the world to overcome such problems, but none offer the flexibility o f biomass. Unlike other sustainable technologies, which offer a solution to one or at most two o f the above problems, biomass as demonstrated by the author, can play a part in mitigating all o f the above problems. It has been known for some time that biomass can be used in various ways as a form o f renewable energy, but with the development o f biorefineries biomass can be used to produce material as well as fuel products. In this report the author has looked at the viability and benefits o f biomass, bioenergy and biorefining in Ireland. The author has demonstrated that such technologies when implemented correctly are sustainable from an economic, environmental and societal point o f view. The author has shown in this thesis that abundant supplies o f biomass make bio re fineries a viable business opportunity in Ireland and has shown how a number o f biorefinery scenarios have the potential to be extremely profitable. The author has evaluated the profitability o f material product-based bio re fineries as well as fuel productbased configurations. The author demonstrated that value-added co-products help to make bio refineries profitable even when excise-relief is not granted on bio fuels. In this thesis the author has revealed some o f the problems that bioenergy and biorefineries have had to overcome to date and examines challenges that remain for bioenergy and biorefining, and looks at the future opportunities for bio fuels. This report concludes that biomass and biorefining has exciting business potential while offering unique opportunities to mitigate the problems o f the future.

Security prices and market transparency: the role of prior information

This paper analyzes the role of traders' priors (proper versus improper) on the implications of market transparency by comparing a pre-trade transparent market with an opaque market in a set-up based on Madhavan (1996). We show that prices may be more informative in the opaque market, regardless of how priors are modelled. In contrast, the comparison of market liquidity and volatility in the two market structures are affected by prior specification. Key words: Market microstructure, Transparency, Prior information

Distribution center consolidation games

We study the location-inventory model as introduced by Teo et al. (2001) to analyze the impact of consolidation of distribution centers on facility and inventory costs. We extend their result on profitability of consolidation. We associate a cooperative game with each location-inventory situation and prove that this game has a non-empty core for identical and independent demand processes. This illustrates that consolidation does not only lower joint costs (which was shown by Teo et al. (2001)), but it allows for a stable division of the minimal costs as well.

The Effect of relationship lending on firm performance

We examine how relationship lending affects firm performance using a panel dataset of about 70,000 small and medium Spanish firms in the period 1993-2004. We model firm performance jointly with the firm's choice of the number of bank relationships. Controlling for firm fixed effects and using instrumental variables for the decision on the number of bank relationships, we find that firms maintaining exclusive bank relationships have lower profitability. The result is consistent with the view that banks appropriate most of the value generated through close relationships with its borrowers as long as they do not face competition from other lenders.

The Benefits of building barrier-free: a contingent valuation of accessibilty as an attribute of housing

Estimating the social benefits of barrier-free building has always required indirect solutions, such as calculating the savings in social services, hospitalisation or adaptations made possible by the increase in accessibility. This research uses the Contingent Valuation Method to gain a direct appraisal of the benefits from barrier-free housing. When comparing two similar dwellings, with the only difference being their accessibility conditions, the 1,007 randomly chosen households that answered the direct survey would pay, on average 12.5 per cent more for being barrier-free. None of the different appraisals made on accessibility costs reaches 5 per cent. This confirms the social profitability of building without barriers and shows the potential size of the private market for those housing developers that meet the demand. Accessibility is a general concern, an economic good or attribute that most households value, irrespective of the physical conditions of their members.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Economic effects of road accessibility in the Pyrenees: user perspective

At present, Spain faces one of the key moments in planning the future design of the infrastructure network. As a consequence of the critical role played by haulage in intra-European trade, the most important investments are those that guarantee that road haulage traffic can move freely at the borders. That is why it is necessary to make serious evaluations of the economic and social profitability of these investments. Normally the most significant social benefit of investment projects in transport infrastructure is time saving, which in turn changes traffic intensity. In this article we analyse the changes in the user excess caused by public investment in transport infrastructure planned by the Spanish government and which will be located on the border between Spain and France. In particular, we study the increase in network user surplus for HGV traffic in the Spanish and French border zones in the Pyrenees.

Job losses, outsourcing and relocation: Empirical evidence using microdata

Using microdata, we analyse the determinants of firm relocation and conventional outsourcing decisions as a way to reduce employment. The results for a sample of 32 countries show the relevance of factors not considered previously in the literature. Firms that are below average in quality or innovation have a higher propensity to externalise part of their production through outsourcing, while lower relative profitability and longer time to market for new products each imply a higher probability of relocation.

Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents’ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability

This paper examines the issue of fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of the time series properties of the primary surplus and debt, and find evidence of a positive long run relationship. Consequently we emphasise, that especially for emerging markets, it is important to recognise the implications of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature. Using a factor model we demonstrate that the relationship between deficit and debt is conditional upon a global factor and we suggest that this global factor is related to world-wide liquidity. We also demonstrate that this acts as a constraint on emerging market economies’ fiscal policy.