Detecting common dynamics in transitory components

This paper considers VECMs for variables exhibiting cointegration and common features in the transitory components. While the presence of cointegration between the permanent components of series reduces the rank of the long-run multiplier matrix, a common feature among the transitory components leads to a rank reduction in the matrix summarizing short-run dynamics. The common feature also implies that there exists linear combinations of the first-differenced variables in a cointegrated VAR that are white noise and traditional tests focus on testing for this characteristic. An alternative, however, is to test the rank of the short-run dynamics matrix directly. Consequently, we use the literature on testing the rank of a matrix to produce some alternative test statistics. We also show that these are identical to one of the traditional tests. The performance of the different methods is illustrated in a Monte Carlo analysis which is then used to re-examine an existing empirical study. Finally, this approach is applied to provide a check for the presence of common dynamics in DSGE models.

Instructing foreign language learners how to listen through metacognitive strategies : an empirical study

This study uses a mixed method approach to investigate the impact of metacognitive strategies instruction on listening comprehension. An experimental group (N = 30) of university students are guided through a process-approach pedagogy over one semester (10 weeks) in Iran. IELTS listening tests are used to track development of listening comprehension in participants who are then asked to complete a Metacognitive Awareness Listening Questionnaire (MALQ). The questionnaire examines students’ employment of metacognitive strategies in listening comprehension. Finally, interviews are used to explore students’ use of strategies in listening. Results indicate that participants develop listening comprehension, but no metacognitive awareness in listening. Students reported in the interviews that they use multiple strategies (cognitive and metacognitive) to approach listening comprehension.

Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

Inquiries, empirical research and regulatory failure

The paper reveals that regulatory failure, often chronic, has characterised the regulatory environments of charities across time and locale. The analysis of the primary literature identifies common issues and suggested remedies pertaining to the regulatory failures of charities. These issues may well be appropriate for consideration by the commission and participants given their persistence in various inquiries for nearly four centuries. Such inquiries also considered other issues not directly referred to in this paper, to also include them would exponentially increase the already unwieldy size of this paper.

Selective essays in competitive environments

This thesis is a collection of essays that utilises descriptive and empirical tools to examine competitive environments such as in academia, superrich and sport. The essays capture different aspects of the winner-take-all phenomenon by looking at citation and publication inequality in a top tier economics journal namely the American Economic Review. How globalisation and corruption influence the accumulation of extraordinary wealth and finally, how in a fairly equal competition, that is in the National Rugby League in Australia, wearing red shirts could lead to a comparative advantage and hence, tip the balance between winning and losing. The results within academia indicate that a highly unequal distribution exist, in which only a few top authors or institutions produce the majority of output. Furthermore, the results obtained in the superrich environment indicate that corruption and globalisation enhances the accumulation of extraordinary wealth. Finally, the results in the sport environment are mixed. While we find support for a positive effect of wearing red jerseys in our descriptive analysis, we find a negative effect when we control at the team level. However, when we investigate the relative difference in the degree of redness between home and away team, we find a quite strong positive effect of wearing red shirts even after controlling at the team level.

An empirical study of business method patent applications filed in Australia 2000-2009

This article sets out the results of an empirical research study into the uses to which the Australian patent system is being put in the early 21st century. The focus of the study is business method patents, which are of interest because they are a controversial class of patent that are thought to differ significantly from the mechanical, chemical and industrial inventions that have traditionally been the mainstay of the patent system. The purpose of the study is to understand what sort of business method patent applications have been lodged in Australia in the first decade of this century and how the patent office is responding to those applications.

The red mist? red shirts, success and team sports

Baron von Richthofen (the Red Baron) arguably the most famous fighter pilot of all time painted his plane the vividest of red hues, making it visible and identifiable at great distance, showing an aggressive pronouncement of dominance to other pilots. Can colour affect aggression and performance and if so is it observable within team sports? This study explores the effect of red on sporting performances within a team sports arena, through empirical analysis of match results from the Australian Rugby League spanning a period of 30 years. Both the descriptive analysis and the multivariate analysis report a positive relationship. Nevertheless, more evidence is required to better understand whether teams in red do enjoy greater success controlling explicitly in a multivariate analysis for many factors that simultaneously affect performance.

Nerves of steel? Stress, work performance and elite athletes

There is a notable shortage of empirical research directed at measuring the magnitude and direction of stress effects on performance in a controlled environment. One reason for this is the inherent difficulties in identifying and isolating direct performance measures for individuals. Additionally, most traditional work environments contain a multitude of exogenous factors impacting individual performance, but controlling for all such factors is generally unfeasible (omitted variable bias). Moreover, instead of asking individuals about their self-reported stress levels, we observe workers’ behaviour in situations that can be classified as stressful. For this reason, we have stepped outside the traditional workplace in an attempt to gain greater controllability of these factors using the sports environment as our experimental space. We empirically investigate the relationship between stress and performance, in an extreme pressure situation (football penalty kicks) in a winner take all sporting environment (FIFA World Cup and UEFA European Cup competitions). Specifically, we examine all the penalty shootouts between 1976 and 2008 covering in total 16 events. The results indicate that extreme stressors can have a positive or negative impact on individuals’ performance. On the other hand, more commonly experienced stressors do not affect professionals’ performances.

Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.

Jackknife for bias reduction in predictive regressions

One of the fundamental econometric models in finance is predictive regression. The standard least squares method produces biased coefficient estimates when the regressor is persistent and its innovations are correlated with those of the dependent variable. This article proposes a general and convenient method based on the jackknife technique to tackle the estimation problem. The proposed method reduces the bias for both single- and multiple-regressor models and for both short- and long-horizon regressions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations. An empirical application to equity premium prediction using the dividend yield and the short rate highlights the differences between the results by the standard approach and those by the bias-reduced estimator. The significant predictive variables under the ordinary least squares become insignificant after adjusting for the finite-sample bias. These discrepancies suggest that bias reduction in predictive regressions is important in practical applications.

Why do policy decision-makers opt for command and control environmental regulation? An economic analysis with special reference to Sri Lanka

This chapter examines why policy decision-makers opt for command and control environmental regulation despite the availability of a plethora of market-based instruments which are more efficient and cost-effective. Interestingly, Sri Lanka has adopted a wholly command and control system, during both the pre and post liberalisation economic policies. This chapter first examines the merits and demerits of command and control and market-based approaches and then looks at Sri Lanka’s extensive environmental regulatory framework. The chapter then examines the likely reasons as to why the country has gone down the path of inflexible regulatory measures and has become entrenched in them. The various hypotheses are discussed and empirical evidence is provided. The chapter also discusses the consequences of an environmentally slack economy and policy implications stemming from adopting a wholly regulatory approach. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the main results.