Desarrollo de un sistema basado en el conocimiento para la definición de líneas de montaje aeronáuticas en la fase conceptual : Aplicación a una aeroestructura aeronáutica

La presente Tesis persigue la definición y el desarrollo de un sistema basado en el conocimiento que permita la generación de modelos de líneas de montaje durante la fase conceptual de definición de una aeroestructura aeronáutica. Para ello, se propone la definición de un modelo formal del proceso en concurrencia asociado al diseño de líneas de montaje en la fase conceptual, y de un modelo de la estructura de datos básica para soportar dicho proceso. Ambos modelos sirven de base para el desarrollo de una aplicación de prueba de concepto en el entorno del sistema comercial CAX-PLM CATIA v5. Los modelos de línea generados integran las tres estructuras básicas definidas en el modelo propuesto: producto, procesos y recursos. Los modelos generados son estructuras “de montaje”, basadas en estructuras de producto “de fabricación” a su vez derivadas de estructuras “de diseño”. Cada modelo generado se evalúa en términos de cuatro estimaciones básicas: dimensiones máximas del nodo producto, distancia de transporte y medio a utilizar, tiempo total de ejecución y coste total. La generación de modelos de línea de montaje se realiza en concurrencia con la función diseño de producto, teniendo por tanto la oportunidad de influir en la misma e incluir requerimientos de fabricación y montaje al producto en las primeras fases de su ciclo de vida, lo que proporciona una clara ventaja competitiva. El desarrollo propuesto en esta Tesis permite sentar las bases para realizar desarrollos con objeto de asistir a los diseñadores durante la fase conceptual de generación de diseños de líneas de montaje. La aplicación prototipo desarrollada demuestra la viabilidad de la propuesta conceptual que se realiza en la Tesis. ABSTRACT The current thesis proposes the definition and development of a knowledge-based system to generate aircraft components assembly line models during the conceptual phase of the product life cycle. With this objective, the definition of a formal activity model to represent the design of assembly lines during the conceptual phase is proposed; such model considers the concurrence with the product design process. Associated to the activity model, a data structure model is defined to support such process. Both models are the basis for the development of a proof of concept application within the environment of the commercial CAX-PLM system CATIA v5. The generated assembly line models integrate the three basic structures defined in the proposed model: product, processes and resources. The generated models are “As Prepared” structures based on “As Planned” structures derived from “As Designed” structures. Each generated model is evaluated in terms of four basic estimates: maximum dimensions of the product node, transport distance and transport mean to be used, total execution time and total cost. The assembly line models generation is made in concurrence with the product design function. Therefore, it provides the opportunity to influence on it and allows including manufacturing and assembly requirements early in the product life cycle, which gives a clear competitive advantage. The development proposed in this Thesis allows setting the foundation to carry out further developments with the aim of assisting designers during the conceptual phase of the assembly line design process. The developed prototype application shows the feasibility of the conceptual proposal presented in the Thesis.

Machine Learning in Scientometrics

El aprendizaje automático y la cienciometría son las disciplinas científicas que se tratan en esta tesis. El aprendizaje automático trata sobre la construcción y el estudio de algoritmos que puedan aprender a partir de datos, mientras que la cienciometría se ocupa principalmente del análisis de la ciencia desde una perspectiva cuantitativa. Hoy en día, los avances en el aprendizaje automático proporcionan las herramientas matemáticas y estadísticas para trabajar correctamente con la gran cantidad de datos cienciométricos almacenados en bases de datos bibliográficas. En este contexto, el uso de nuevos métodos de aprendizaje automático en aplicaciones de cienciometría es el foco de atención de esta tesis doctoral. Esta tesis propone nuevas contribuciones en el aprendizaje automático que podrían arrojar luz sobre el área de la cienciometría. Estas contribuciones están divididas en tres partes: Varios modelos supervisados (in)sensibles al coste son aprendidos para predecir el éxito científico de los artículos y los investigadores. Los modelos sensibles al coste no están interesados en maximizar la precisión de clasificación, sino en la minimización del coste total esperado derivado de los errores ocasionados. En este contexto, los editores de revistas científicas podrían disponer de una herramienta capaz de predecir el número de citas de un artículo en el fututo antes de ser publicado, mientras que los comités de promoción podrían predecir el incremento anual del índice h de los investigadores en los primeros años. Estos modelos predictivos podrían allanar el camino hacia nuevos sistemas de evaluación. Varios modelos gráficos probabilísticos son aprendidos para explotar y descubrir nuevas relaciones entre el gran número de índices bibliométricos existentes. En este contexto, la comunidad científica podría medir cómo algunos índices influyen en otros en términos probabilísticos y realizar propagación de la evidencia e inferencia abductiva para responder a preguntas bibliométricas. Además, la comunidad científica podría descubrir qué índices bibliométricos tienen mayor poder predictivo. Este es un problema de regresión multi-respuesta en el que el papel de cada variable, predictiva o respuesta, es desconocido de antemano. Los índices resultantes podrían ser muy útiles para la predicción, es decir, cuando se conocen sus valores, el conocimiento de cualquier valor no proporciona información sobre la predicción de otros índices bibliométricos. Un estudio bibliométrico sobre la investigación española en informática ha sido realizado bajo la cultura de publicar o morir. Este estudio se basa en una metodología de análisis de clusters que caracteriza la actividad en la investigación en términos de productividad, visibilidad, calidad, prestigio y colaboración internacional. Este estudio también analiza los efectos de la colaboración en la productividad y la visibilidad bajo diferentes circunstancias. ABSTRACT Machine learning and scientometrics are the scientific disciplines which are covered in this dissertation. Machine learning deals with the construction and study of algorithms that can learn from data, whereas scientometrics is mainly concerned with the analysis of science from a quantitative perspective. Nowadays, advances in machine learning provide the mathematical and statistical tools for properly working with the vast amount of scientometrics data stored in bibliographic databases. In this context, the use of novel machine learning methods in scientometrics applications is the focus of attention of this dissertation. This dissertation proposes new machine learning contributions which would shed light on the scientometrics area. These contributions are divided in three parts: Several supervised cost-(in)sensitive models are learned to predict the scientific success of articles and researchers. Cost-sensitive models are not interested in maximizing classification accuracy, but in minimizing the expected total cost of the error derived from mistakes in the classification process. In this context, publishers of scientific journals could have a tool capable of predicting the citation count of an article in the future before it is published, whereas promotion committees could predict the annual increase of the h-index of researchers within the first few years. These predictive models would pave the way for new assessment systems. Several probabilistic graphical models are learned to exploit and discover new relationships among the vast number of existing bibliometric indices. In this context, scientific community could measure how some indices influence others in probabilistic terms and perform evidence propagation and abduction inference for answering bibliometric questions. Also, scientific community could uncover which bibliometric indices have a higher predictive power. This is a multi-output regression problem where the role of each variable, predictive or response, is unknown beforehand. The resulting indices could be very useful for prediction purposes, that is, when their index values are known, knowledge of any index value provides no information on the prediction of other bibliometric indices. A scientometric study of the Spanish computer science research is performed under the publish-or-perish culture. This study is based on a cluster analysis methodology which characterizes the research activity in terms of productivity, visibility, quality, prestige and international collaboration. This study also analyzes the effects of collaboration on productivity and visibility under different circumstances.

A proposal for pellet production from residual woody biomass in the island of Majorca (Spain)

The use of residual biomass for energy purposes is of great interest in isolated areas like Majorca for waste reduction, energy sufficiency and renewable energies development. In addition, densification processes lead to easy-to-automate solid biofuels which additionally have higher energy density. The present study aims at (i) the estimation of the potential of residual biomass from woody crops as well as from agri-food and wood industries in Majorca, and (ii) the analysis of the optimal location of potential pellet plants by means of a GIS approach (location-allocation analysis) and a cost evaluation of the pellets production chain. The residual biomass potential from woody crops in Majorca Island was estimated at 35,874 metric tons dry matter (t DM) per year, while the wood and agri-food industries produced annually 21,494 t DM and 2717 t DM, respectively. Thus, there would be enough resource available for the installation of 10 pellet plants of 6400 t·year−1 capacity. These plants were optimally located throughout the island of Mallorca with a maximum threshold distance of 28 km for biomass transport from the production points. Values found for the biomass cost at the pellet plant ranged between 57.1 €·t−1 and 63.4 €·t−1 for biomass transport distance of 10 and 28 km. The cost of pelleting amounted to 56.7 €·t−1; adding the concepts of business fee, pellet transport and profit margin (15%), the total cost of pelleting was estimated at 116.6 €·t−1. The present study provides a proposal for pellet production from residual woody biomass that would supply up to 2.8% of the primary energy consumed by the domestic and services sector in the Balearic Islands.

Evaluación de la distribución de riesgos en los distintos modelos de asociación público-privada para la provisión de infraestructura carretera en México

México es de los pocos países en el mundo que ha realizado dos grandes programas para la construcción de autopistas en colaboración con el sector privado. El primero, fue realizado entre 1989 y 1994, con resultados adversos por el mal diseño del esquema de concesiones; y, el segundo con mejores resultados, en operación desde 2003 mediante nuevos modelos de asociación público-privada (APP). El objetivo de la presente investigación es estudiar los modelos de asociación público-privada empleados en México para la provisión de infraestructura carretera, realizando el análisis y la evaluación de la distribución de riesgos entre el sector público y privado en cada uno de los modelos con el propósito de establecer una propuesta de reasignación de riesgos para disminuir el costo global y la incertidumbre de los proyectos. En la primera parte se describe el estado actual del conocimiento de las asociaciones público-privadas para desarrollar proyectos de infraestructura, incluyendo los antecedentes, la definición y las tipologías de los esquemas APP, así como la práctica internacional de programas como el modelo británico Private Finance Initiative (PFI), resultados de proyectos en la Unión Europea y programas APP en otros países. También, se destaca la participación del sector privado en el financiamiento de la infraestructura del transporte de México en la década de 1990. En los capítulos centrales se aborda el estudio de los modelos APP que se han utilizado en el país en la construcción de la red de carreteras de alta capacidad. Se presentan las características y los resultados del programa de autopistas 1989-94, así como el rescate financiero y las medidas de reestructuración de los proyectos concesionados, aspectos que obligaron a las autoridades mexicanas a cambiar la normatividad para la aprobación de los proyectos según su rentabilidad, modificar la legislación de caminos y diseñar nuevos esquemas de colaboración entre el gobierno y el sector privado. Los nuevos modelos APP vigentes desde 2003 son: nuevo modelo de concesiones para desarrollar autopistas de peaje, modelo de proyectos de prestación de servicios (peaje sombra) para modernizar carreteras existentes y modelo de aprovechamiento de activos para concesionar autopistas de peaje en operación a cambio de un pago. De estos modelos se realizaron estudios de caso en los que se determinan medidas de desempeño operativo (niveles de tráfico, costos y plazos de construcción) y rentabilidad financiera (tasa interna de retorno y valor presente neto). En la última parte se efectúa la identificación, análisis y evaluación de los riesgos que afectaron los costos, el tiempo de ejecución y la rentabilidad de los proyectos de ambos programas. Entre los factores de riesgo analizados se encontró que los más importantes fueron: las condiciones macroeconómicas del país (inflación, producto interno bruto, tipo de cambio y tasa de interés), deficiencias en la planificación de los proyectos (diseño, derecho de vía, tarifas, permisos y estimación del tránsito) y aportaciones públicas en forma de obra. Mexico is one of the few countries in the world that has developed two major programs for highway construction in collaboration with the private sector. The first one was carried out between 1989 and 1994 with adverse outcomes due to the wrong design of concession schemes; and, the second one, in operation since 2003, through new public-private partnership models (PPPs). The objective of this research is to study public-private partnership models used in Mexico for road infrastructure provision, performing the analysis and evaluation of risk’s distribution between the public and the private sector in each model in order to draw up a proposal for risk’s allocation to reduce the total cost and the uncertainty of projects. The first part describes the current state of knowledge in public-private partnership to develop infrastructure projects, including the history, definition and types of PPP models, as well as international practice of programs such as the British Private Finance Initiative (PFI) model, results in the European Union and PPP programs in other countries. Also, it stands out the private sector participation in financing of Mexico’s transport infrastructure in 1990s. The next chapters present the study of public-private partnerships models that have been used in the country in the construction of the high capacity road network. Characteristics and outcomes of the highway program 1989-94 are presented, as well as the financial bailout and restructuring measures of the concession projects, aspects that forced the Mexican authorities to change projects regulations, improve road’s legislation and design new schemes of cooperation between the Government and the private sector. The new PPP models since 2003 are: concession model to develop toll highways, private service contracts model (shadow toll) to modernize existing roads and highway assets model for the concession of toll roads in operation in exchange for a payment. These models were analyzed using case studies in which measures of operational performance (levels of traffic, costs and construction schedules) and financial profitability (internal rate of return and net present value) are determined. In the last part, the analysis and assessment of risks that affect costs, execution time and profitability of the projects are carried out, for both programs. Among the risk factors analyzed, the following ones were found to be the most important: country macroeconomic conditions (inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate and interest rate), deficiencies in projects planning (design, right of way, tolls, permits and traffic estimation) and public contributions in the form of construction works.

SONIA REGINA PRADO

A dissertação teve como objetivo principal estudar como uma Instituição de Ensino Superior Privada (IES) atuante no Brasil tem crescido pós Lei de Diretrizes e Bases (LDB) de 1996 até 2015, por meio da análise do curso de bacharelado em Administração de Empresas, nas modalidades: presencial, EAD e Flex (semipresencial). Para este fim, foi realizada uma pesquisa exploratória, de caráter qualitativo baseada no método do estudo de caso. Para coleta de evidências foram analisados relatórios corporativos (Annual Report, Relatórios Internos e outros documentos), entrevistas baseadas em roteiro semiestruturado com gestores da IES privada e observações. Dentre os principais achados, verificou-se que as principais estratégicas de crescimento da IES privada estudada se basearam em fusões e aquisições de outras IES, abertura de novos polos de EAD, na abertura de novas unidades próprias, bem como em inovações em várias dimensões da organização. Os programas governamentais de financiamento aos alunos também são fortes contribuintes para este crescimento, como o Fundo de Financiamento ao Estudante do Ensino Superior (FIES) e o Programa Universidade para Todos (Prouni). Com essa nova realidade, o ensino superior privado recebeu incentivo e facilitação para o seu crescimento, a um ritmo acelerado. Consequentemente pode-se concluir que a IES privada estudada adotou as seguintes estratégias de crescimento: Expansão orgânica com fusões/ aquisições de Instituições menores, com desenvolvimento de planos para todos os campi Brasil; Greenfield (por meio de solicitação de autorização de novas unidades e/ou cursos) em cidades sem possibilidades de aquisições/fusões, e aumentando o número de vagas/ matriculas nas unidades já existentes, aderiu aos programas do governo e também cuidou da evasão por meio de: Seguro educacional; gestão preparada para atender necessidades do discente; Sistema de Ensino com currículos integrados nacionalmente; Intercâmbio de alunos e professores entre as diversas unidades em todas as regiões do país e padronização dos processos.

Formação do preço da energia convencional nas transações entre agentes no mercado de curto prazo brasileiro.

Hoje no mercado brasileiro de eletricidade, o preço da energia convencional é composto pela soma do valor do Preço de Liquidação das Diferenças (PLD) divulgado pela Câmara de Comercialização de Energia Elétrica (CCEE) semanalmente com o valor do Spread negociado bilateralmente no mercado à vista (mercado de curto prazo), resultante do equilíbrio entre oferta e demanda. Em alguns momentos, o valor do Spread chega a representar mais de 100% do custo total da energia. Este trabalho faz uma análise do mercado brasileiro, bem como, de alguns mercados no exterior de energia elétrica e destaca os pontos que tem influência direta, na formação do Spread da energia convencional e como isso afeta a decisão de contratação dos agentes. Além disso, o trabalho busca encontrar correlações entre dados divulgados, como carga e oferta de energia, com o ágio negociado no mercado de curto prazo, buscando entender o real impacto de cada um desses fatores e explicar as grandes variações já observadas. Sugere-se também um modelo de regressão linear múltipla para a projeção de valores do ágio. Para tanto, foram utilizadas informações proveniente de um banco de dados de cotações de negócios efetivamente realizados no curto prazo desde janeiro de 2011 até julho de 2014, bem como informações retiradas da CCEE e Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS).

Optimal synthesis of liquid-liquid multistage extractors

Presentation in the 11th European Symposium of the Working Party on Computer Aided Process Engineering, Kolding, Denmark, May 27-30, 2001.

MINLP Optimization Algorithm for the Synthesis of Heat and Work Exchange Networks

This paper introduces a new optimization model for the simultaneous synthesis of heat and work exchange networks. The work integration is performed in the work exchange network (WEN), while the heat integration is carried out in the heat exchanger network (HEN). In the WEN synthesis, streams at high-pressure (HP) and low-pressure (LP) are subjected to pressure manipulation stages, via turbines and compressors running on common shafts and stand-alone equipment. The model allows the use of several units of single-shaft-turbine-compressor (SSTC), as well as helper motors and generators to respond to any shortage and/or excess of energy, respectively, in the SSTC axes. The heat integration of the streams occurs in the HEN between each WEN stage. Thus, as the inlet and outlet streams temperatures in the HEN are dependent of the WEN design, they must be considered as optimization variables. The proposed multi-stage superstructure is formulated in mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP), in order to minimize the total annualized cost composed by capital and operational expenses. A case study is conducted to verify the accuracy of the proposed approach. The results indicate that the heat integration between the WEN stages is essential to enhance the work integration, and to reduce the total cost of process due the need of a smaller amount of hot and cold utilities.

Optimal Design of a Hybrid Membrane System Combining Reverse and Forward Osmosis for Seawater Desalination

In this work we study Forward Osmosis (FO) as an emerging desalination technology, and its capability to replace totally or partially Reverse Osmosis (RO) in order to reduce the great amount of energy required in the current desalination plants. For this purpose, we propose a superstructure that includes both membrane based desalination technologies, allowing the selection of only one of the technologies or a combination of both of them seeking for the optimal configuration of the network. The optimization problem is solved for a seawater desalination plant with a given fresh water production. The results obtained show that the optimal solution combines both desalination technologies to reduce not only the energy consumption but also the total cost of the desalination process in comparison with the same plant but operating only with RO.

Serving the American public : best practices in performance measurement : Benchmarking Study Report /

"June 1997."

Process improvement : the DSMC approach.

Mode of access: Internet.

A successful reorganization of human services in Illinois : a report to the Illinois Legislative Taskforce on Human Service Consolidation /

"Compiled and produced by the DHS Office of Press/Communications ..."--Table of contents.

Report on the use of nonconsensual eavesdropping devices during 1996 /

Provides the number of reported nonconsensual eavesdropping devices used during 1996, including reports forwarded to the director by participating state's attorneys, the number of law enforcement personnel involved in the seizure of intercepts, and the total cost to the department of all activities relating to the seizure of intercepts. Also provided are the number of department personnel authorized to possess, install or operate nonconsensual eavesdropping devices and the total number of law enforcement officers trained by the Illinois State Police, Technical Investigation Section, to participate in nonconsensual wiretaps.

Virtual case manager : tactical implementation plan.

"During the 1996 spring session, the General Assembly passed and the Governor signed landmark legislation creating a Department of Human Services (DHS) effective July 1, 1997. The new department consolidates three human services departments in their entirety : Department of Alcoholism and Substance Abuse (DASA) - Department of Rehabilitation Services (DORS) - Department of Mental Health and Developmental Disabilities (DMH/DD)."