The present situation regarding lymphatic filariasis in Cabo de Santo Agostinho, Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil

A cross-sectional population-based survey on the occurrence of lymphatic filariasis was carried out in the municipality of Cabo de Santo Agostinho, Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil. 7,650 individuals of both sexes were examined (from 1,416 households) of whom six tested positive for microfilaria according to the thick blood diagnostic test. The age of the individuals examined varied from 0 to 98 (averaging 26.6 years), whilst the age of the microfilaria-positive individuals varied from 11 to 29, averaging 22.5 years. Five of the six positive cases were male. These cases were residents of the following areas: Pista Preta (one case); Ponte dos Carvalhos (four cases); and Pontezinha (one case). This last case from Pontezinha was autochthonous. Of the individuals examined, 109 (1.4%) cited complaints relating to filariasis. These results suggest that filariasis is being transmitted in the municipality of Cabo de Santo Agostinho, a finding that establishes the need to carry out disease control activities, and to collaborate with the planning of the national programme for the elimination of filariasis.

Probabilistic models for mechanical properties of prestressing strands

This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

Waste collection routing-limited multiple landfills and heterogeneous fleet

This article deals with a real-life waste collection routing problem. To efficiently plan waste collection, large municipalities may be partitioned into convenient sectors and only then can routing problems be solved in each sector. Three diverse situations are described, resulting in three different new models. In the first situation, there is a single point of waste disposal from where the vehicles depart and to where they return. The vehicle fleet comprises three types of collection vehicles. In the second, the garage does not match any of the points of disposal. The vehicle is unique and the points of disposal (landfills or transfer stations) may have limitations in terms of the number of visits per day. In the third situation, disposal points are multiple (they do not coincide with the garage), they are limited in the number of visits, and the fleet is composed of two types of vehicles. Computational results based not only on instances adapted from the literature but also on real cases are presented and analyzed. In particular, the results also show the effectiveness of combining sectorization and routing to solve waste collection problems.

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

Modelo de avaliação de risco no sector bancário português

A globalização dos sistemas financeiros, ao longo dos anos, tem estimulado uma crescente necessidade de supervisão bancária nas instituições financeiras. O Comité de Supervisão Bancária de Basileia tem tido um papel crucial nesta área, estabelecendo princípios por via dos seus acordos entre as várias entidades nacionais de regulação e supervisão das maiores economias mundiais. Em 1988, foi criado o Acordo de Basileia (Basileia I) pelo Comité de Supervisão Bancária de forma a harmonizar os padrões de supervisão bancária. Este acordo estabeleceu mínimos de solvabilidade para o sistema bancário internacional no sentido de reforçar a sua solidez e estabilidade. Com o desenvolvimento de novas potências económicas e novas necessidades regulamentares, em Junho de 2004, foi publicado o novo Acordo de Capital – o Basileia II. Este acordo pretendia tornar os requisitos de capital mais sensíveis ao risco, promover a atuação das autoridades de supervisão e a disciplina de mercado (através do seu Pilar II) e encorajar a capacidade de cada instituição mensurar e gerir o seu risco. Em Setembro de 2010, o Acordo de Basileia III, com adoção prevista até 2019, veio reforçar estas medidas com a criação de um quadro regulamentar e de supervisão mais sólido, por parte das instituições de crédito. Surge, assim neste contexto, o Modelo de Avaliação de Risco (MAR) para o sector bancário. Em Portugal, o MAR tem como objetivo avaliar o perfil de risco das instituições de crédito, sujeitas à supervisão do Banco de Portugal, assim como apresentar o perfil de risco e a solidez da situação financeira de cada instituição de crédito. Este trabalho pretende avaliar o surgimento e a caracterização deste modelo e identificar as variáveis a ter em conta nos modelos de avaliação de risco a nível qualitativo e quantitativo.

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain management interoperability assessment methodology

Dissertação para obtenção de grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial (MEGI)

Avaliação do Impacto da Formação no sector da hotelaria e restauração

O mundo é cada vez mais, mais veloz, voraz e global, o que origina, se não mesmo força, alterações constantes nos comportamentos dos consumidores, originando inovadoras e criativas formas de diferenciação. O setor da Hotelaria e Restauração, um dos mais dinâmicos no atual paradigma da economia global, é também um dos que mais pronto responde a essas exigências; recorrendo, em muitas das situações à formação como resposta à exigência de melhoria constante e continuada dos serviços que presta e dos produtos que oferece. Isto porque essa qualidade passa inevitavelmente pelos recursos humanos, cabendo à formação o papel preponderante na sua qualificação e adequação a novos produtos, serviços e públicos. Por força desse relevo e de uma crescente e permanente pressão para a majoração dos resultados obtidos pelas organizações, também a Formação se viu obrigada a avaliar o impacto da sua ação/intervenção, para que se possa de forma clara pesar o seu contributo para a melhoria dos resultados das organizações. Este projeto procurou identificar qual, ou quais, de entre os modelos disponíveis, melhor se adaptam e adequam ao setor que é tão sui generis na forma como capta, treina e gere os seus recursos humanos!

Tuple-based morphisms for interoperability establishment of financial information models

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

Risk-based decision support system for life cycle management of industrials plants

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

ANIMAL MODELS FOR THE STUDY OF LEISHMANIASIS IMMUNOLOGY

Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Karanganyar regency - Indonesia - Comparison of knowledge-based and Data-driven Models

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Algorithm for the Parkinson’s disease behavioural models characterization using a biosensor

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica