On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A TECNOLOGIA DA INFORMAÇÃO COMO ELEMENTO DE MELHORIA DOS PROCESSOS FINANCEIROS DA PEQUENA E MÉDIA EMPRESA

A complexidade do ambiente em que vivem as organizações nos dias de hoje exige Sistemas de Informações (SIs) eficientes, que sirvam como apoio à tomada de decisão por parte dos gestores, em especial no que diz respeito às questões ligadas à Tecnologia da Informação (TI) diante dos novos paradigmas de gestão enfrentados pelas Pequenas e Médias Empresas (PMEs). Este trabalho tem como objetivo geral a avaliação da percepção dos gestores das PMEs brasileiras, quanto ao impacto do uso da TI como elemento de melhoria dos processos financeiros das organizações. Para que tal objetivo fosse alcançado, foram desenvolvidos e estudados os seguintes objetivos específicos: verificar de que forma a TI é percebida como útil nas pequenas e médias empresas, em especial na automação de rotinas financeiras de tesouraria e fluxo de caixa; verificar se a automação de rotinas financeiras com a utilização da TI subsidia os processos de tomada de decisão em tais empresas e, ainda, verificar se sua utilização é vista como uma vantagem estratégica. Em seu levantamento bibliográfico, este trabalho apresenta conceitos relacionados a Competição, Pequena e Média Empresa, Estratégia e Gestão de Competência. Esses conceitos foram encontrados na literatura e em artigos na imprensa especializada. Na pesquisa empírica realizada, este trabalho procurou, através de estudos de casos múltiplos em 5 empresas, aprofundar as questões relativas à percepção dos gestores em relação à TI utilizada nos procedimentos financeiros implantados nas organizações que dirigem. O planejamento da amostra foi feito de maneira a permitir não só a análise individual de cada respondente como também a análise das organizações onde atuavam. As conclusões a que este estudo chegou são: a) os gestores têm a percepção de que a utilização de TI nas rotinas financeiras e de fluxo de caixa é imprescindível, pois a automação é necessária para a manutenção e a agilização dos processos de relacionamento com clientes e fornecedores; b) a TI pode subsidiar processos de tomada de decisão estruturada, especificamente as decisões que tratam de rotinas financeiras. Outro aspecto que fica claro na percepção dos gestores é que a dependência da empresa aos SIs aumenta com o crescimento da empresa e, conseqüentemente, com o volume de informações com que os gestores têm de lidar; c) na percepção dos gestores, a utilização de TI nos processos financeiros das PMEs é importante, mas eles não são os determinantes da vantagem estratégica da organização. Os estudos permitiram duas outras observações importantes: d) as estruturas organizacionais das empresas estudadas eram pertinentes aos itens de TI que possuíam; e) há diferença de visão entre gestores e subordinados. A conclusão deste estudo, que responde ao objetivo geral, é que, na percepção dos gestores, a TI tem um impacto positivo como elemento de melhoria dos processos financeiros das organizações, porém não é o fator que define a vantagem estratégica das organizações: há outros aspectos que devem ser avaliados, e a construção de sistemas complexos que abrangem outras áreas da organização é necessária.(AU)

Mouse splenocyte proliferation and its modulation by sex steroids

Concanavalin A, a T cell mitogen enhanced DNA synthesis in murine splenocytes. Amongst the early signals prior to this event was an increase in cytosolic calcium derived from both intra- and extracellular sources. The requirements for extracellular calcium persisted for four hours after the lectin administration which itself was needed for six hours. Putative calcium channel antagonists and calmodulin inhibitors blocked ihe increase in DNA synthesis. The calcium signal was mimicked by application of the ionophore, A23187, although no increase in DNA synthesis occurred. An activator of protein kinase C, 12-0- tetradecanoylphorbol 13-acetate, had little effect in isolation but the combined application of these two agents greatly enhanced DNA synthesis. The natural mediators of these events are presumed to be inositol trisphosphate and diacylglycerol derived from phosphatidylinositol bisphosphate hydrolysis. Lectin application and protein kinase C activation both increased intracellular pH possibly as a result of Na'l'/H"'' exchange since amiloride an inhibitor of this antiporter inhibited lectin induced DNA synthesis. The calcium and hydrogen ionic changes occur within minutes of lectin application; the protracted requirement for this mitogen suggests further signalling mechanisms occur to elicit maximum DNA synthesis in these cells. Gonadectomy caused an increase in thymic and splenic weight. Spleno-cytes derived from castrated mice showed no change in mitogen response whereas those from ovariectomised mice demonstrated a reduced lectin sensitivity. Testosterone, 5 a dihydrotestosterone, a and 0 oestradiol all inhibited lectin induced DNA synthesis but only at pharmacological concentrations. Testosterone glucuronide and cholesterol were without effect Studies with mouse serum fractions of differing steroidal status were unable to confirm the presence or absence of serum factors which might mediate the effects of steroid on lymphoid cells, all fractions tested inhibited lymphocyte transformation. Both interleukin-2 and lipopolysaccharide induced splenocyte mitogene-sis was also impaired by high steroid concentrations in vitro, suggesting that steroids mediate their effect by a non-specific, non-receptor-mediated event.

Analisi di aspetti di Security da attacchi informatici su Impianti di Processo

Gli impianti industriali moderni sono di tipo automatizzato, i processi sono cioè pilotati da un’unità di calcolo che fornisce i comandi necessari atti al corretto funzionamento dell’impianto. Queste tecnologie espongono le apparecchiature a problemi di Security, dunque attacchi volontari provenienti dall’esterno, al sistema di controllo. Esso può diventare la variabile manipolabile del terrorista informatico il quale può causare lo shut down del segnale o cambiare l’impostazione dei parametri di processo.Lo studio esposto si propone di identificare le possibili modalità di attacco e di individuare uno strumento sistematico che permetta di valutarne la vulnerabilità ad un possibile atto di sabotaggio. La procedura proposta è la PSC-SHaRP (Process System Cyber-Security Hazard Review Procedure) essa consta di due strutture chiamate rispettivamente Alpha e Beta. La metodologia è volta a individuare i potenziali pericoli posti dagli attacchi informatici piuttosto che a stimarne un profilo di rischio e/o probabilità di successo. La ShaRP Alpha, viene utilizzata per analizzare le conseguenze di deviazioni cyber su singole macchine presenti in impianto o sistemi modulari. La ShaRP Beta viene utilizzata per analizzare le conseguenze di attacchi cyber sul sistema costituito dall’impianto di processo. Essa è quindi in grado di analizzare le ripercussioni che manipolazioni su una o più apparecchiature possono avere sull’impianto nel suo complesso. Nell’ultima parte dell’elaborato sono state trattate le possibilità di accesso da parte del ‘’terrorista’’ al sistema di controllo e sicurezza, dunque i sistemi di gestione del DCS e del SIS e le barriere software e hardware che possono essere presenti.

Problematizing practice: MacIntyre and management

Alasdair MacIntyre’s distinction between institutions and practices helps illuminate how powerful institutional forces frame and constrain the practice of organizational research as well as the output and positioning of scholarly journals like Organization. Yet his conceptual frame is limited, not least because it is unclear whether the activity of managing is, or is not, a practice. This article builds on MacIntyre’s ideas by incorporating Aristotle’s concepts of poíēsis, praxis, téchnē and phrónēsis. Rather than ask, following MacIntyre, whether management is a practice, this wider network of concepts provides a richer frame for understanding the nature of managing and the appropriate role for academia. The article outlines a phronetic paradigm for organizational inquiry, and concludes by briefly examining the implications of such a paradigm for research and learning.

Theory games

This paper examines the remarkable and unexplored correspondence between games (and board games in particular) and what is commonly understood as theory in the social sciences. It argues that games exhibit many if not most of the attributes of theory, but that theory is missing some of the features of games. As such, game provide a way of rethinking what we mean by theory and theorizing. Specifically, games and their relationship with the ‘real’ world, provide a way of thinking about theory and theorizing that is consistent with recent calls to frame social inquiry around the concept of phrónēsis.

Beyond MacIntyre: grounding the business as practice debate

Alasdair MacIntyre’s distinction between institutions and practices helps illuminate how powerful institutional forces frame and constrain the practice of organizational research as well as the output and positioning of scholarly journals. Yet his conceptual frame is limited, not least because it is unclear whether the activity of managing is, or is not, a practice. This paper builds on MacIntyre’s ideas by incorporating Aristotle’s concepts of poíēsis, praxis, téchnē and phrónēsis. Rather than ask, following MacIntyre, whether management is a practice, this wider network of concepts provides a richer frame for understanding the nature of managing and the appropriate role for academia. The paper outlines a phronetic paradigm for organizational inquiry, and concludes by briefly examining the implications of such a paradigm for research and learning.

Structure et évolution du pergélisol depuis le Pléistocène Tardif, Beaver Creek, Yukon

Le site routier expérimental de Beaver Creek (62º 20’ 20’’ N – 140º 50’ 10’’ O) est sis sur la moraine de Beaver Creek pré datant le Dernier Maximum Glaciaire. Dans un périmètre d’un kilomètre carré, son relief, sa végétation, son sol et sa cryostratigraphie ont été étudiés avec une perspective géosystémique, afin d’en détailler la catena et sa structure. Ensuite, la cryostratigraphie a été interprétée pour suggérer un modèle d’évolution du paysage. Enfin, les changements récents y ont été intégrés en vue d’actualiser la tendance évolutive du géosystème. Il ressort de cet ouvrage que la durabilité du pergélisol est fortement appuyée par la présence des milieux humides dans les replats. Quelques affleurements de la moraine sont toujours visibles, quoique faiblement exprimés. Ils contiennent peu de glace et leur teneur en matière organique est mince. Quant aux dépressions, elles sont peu profondes et étendues. Non seulement elles ont hérité des sédiments érodés des crêtes, mais elles ont aussi fixé une quantité importante de glace et de matière organique par le truchement d’un pergélisol syngénétique (>15 m) généré par le climat et protégé par l’écosystème. Au moins un évènement de thermo-érosion est survenu avant le dernier stade d’aggradation syngénétique (Holocène), mais il n’a été que partiel. L’actuel réchauffement climatique menace d’engager un autre épisode de dégradation à l’échelle du bassin versant. Contrairement au changement climatique, l’utilisation du territoire provoque déjà la dégradation du pergélisol, mais de manière localisée seulement.

The Pico de Navas slump (Burgos, Spain): a large rocky landslide caused by underlying clayey sand fluidification

The Pico de Navas landslide was a large-magnitude rotational movement, affecting 50x106m3 of hard to soft rocks. The objectives of this study were: (1) to characterize the landslide in terms of geology, geomorphological features and geotechnical parameters; and (2) to obtain an adequate geomechanical model to comprehensively explain its rupture, considering topographic, hydro-geological and geomechanical conditions. The rupture surface crossed, from top to bottom: (a) more than 200 m of limestone and clay units of the Upper Cretaceous, affected by faults; and (b) the Albian unit of Utrillas facies composed of silty sand with clay (Kaolinite) of the Lower Cretaceous. This sand played an important role in the basal failure of the slide due to the influence of fine particles (silt and clay), which comprised on average more than 70% of the sand, and the high content presence of kaolinite (>40%) in some beds. Its geotechnical parameters are: unit weight (δ) = 19-23 KN/m3; friction angle (φ) = 13º-38º and cohesion (c) = 10-48 KN/m2. Its microstructure consists of accumulations of kaolinite crystals stuck to terrigenous grains, making clayey peds. We hypothesize that the presence of these aggregates was the internal cause of fluidification of this layer once wet. Besides the faulted structure of the massif, other conditioning factors of the movement were: the large load of the upper limestone layers; high water table levels; high water pore pressure; and the loss of strength due to wet conditions. The 3D simulation of the stability conditions concurs with our hypothesis. The landslide occurred in the Recent or Middle Holocene, certainly before at least 500 BC and possibly during a wet climate period. Today, it appears to be inactive. This study helps to understand the frequent slope instabilities all along the Iberian Range when facies Utrillas is present.

On the microstructure, growth pattern and original porosity of belemnite rostra: insights from calcitic Jurassic belemnites

Calcitic belemnite rostra are usually employed to perform paleoenvironmental studies based on geochemical data. However, several questions, such as their original porosity and microstructure, remain open, despite they are essential to make accurate interpretations based on geochemical analyses.This paper revisits and enlightens some of these questions. Petrographic data demonstrate that calcite crystals of the rostrum solidum of belemnites grow from spherulites that successively develop along the apical line, resulting in a “regular spherulithic prismatic” microstructure. Radially arranged calcite crystals emerge and diverge from the spherulites: towards the apex, crystals grow until a new spherulite is formed; towards the external walls of the rostrum, the crystals become progressively bigger and prismatic. Adjacent crystals slightly vary in their c-axis orientation, resulting in undulose extinction. Concentric growth layering develops at different scales and is superimposed and traversed by a radial pattern, which results in the micro-fibrous texture that is observed in the calcite crystals in the rostra.Petrographic data demonstrate that single calcite crystals in the rostra have a composite nature, which strongly suggests that the belemnite rostra were originally porous. Single crystals consistently comprise two distinct zones or sectors in optical continuity: 1) the inner zone is fluorescent, has relatively low optical relief under transmitted light (TL) microscopy, a dark-grey color under backscatter electron microscopy (BSEM), a commonly triangular shape, a “patchy” appearance and relatively high Mg and Na contents; 2) the outer sector is non-fluorescent, has relatively high optical relief under TL, a light-grey color under BSEM and low Mg and Na contents. The inner and fluorescent sectors are interpreted to have formed first as a product of biologically controlled mineralization during belemnite skeletal growth and the non-fluorescent outer sectors as overgrowths of the former, filling the intra- and inter-crystalline porosity. This question has important implications for making paleoenvironmental and/or paleoclimatic interpretations based on geochemical analyses of belemnite rostra.Finally, the petrographic features of composite calcite crystals in the rostra also suggest the non-classical crystallization of belemnite rostra, as previously suggested by other authors.

Enigmas monetarios en el derecho local. Los mencales y maravedís en los fueros castellanos

La historia de la moneda en la Castilla medieval ha estado siempre mediatizada por la convivencia no siempre armónica entre dos sistemas monetarios muy diferentes. Uno basado en la plata, de origen europeo, otro centrado en el oro, de raíces árabes. La necesidad de conectar y de establecer unas equivalencias entre ellos se convirtió pronto en una necesidad, máxime cuando las monedas de oro incrementaron sus variantes. En esta compleja situación aparecen mencales y maravedís citados conjuntamente en muchos fueros: Zorita, Uclés, Cuenca,... sin que su naturaleza quede del todo clara. Este artículo compara estas referencias y analiza las equivalencias que los unen. Como colofón al trabajo podemos afirmar que los maravedís citados en cada texto corresponden a monedas áureas de distinto peso y valor mientras el mencal es identificado con un ponderal de oro que los relaciona.

Sweat Lodges in Iron Age Iberian Peninsula: New Data, Typologies and Interpretations

Three questions on the study of NO Iberian Peninsula sweat lodges are posed. First, the new sauna of Monte Ornedo (Cantabria), the review of the one of Armea (Ourense), and the Cantabrian pedra formosa type are discussed. Second, the known types of sweat lodges are reconsidered underlining the differences between the Cantabrian and the Douro - Minho groups as these differences contribute to a better assessment of the saunas located out of those territories, such as those of Monte Ornedo or Ulaca. Third, a richer record demands a more specific terminology, a larger use of archaeometric analysis and the application of landscape archaeology or art history methodologies. In this way the range of interpretation of the sweat lodges is opened, as an example an essay is proposed that digs on some already known proposals and suggests that the saunas are material metaphors of wombs whose rationale derives from ideologies and ritual practices of Indo-European tradition.

Entre reglas y excepciones. Es decir, como legitimar las decisiones colectivas

El ensayo examina la cuestión de la aplicación de las reglas y de la capacidad real para tratar casos específicos, llegando a la conclusión de que es la excepción la que confirma la regla, a condición de que sea dialógicamente construida, para que sea interpretable y aplicable por parte de sus numerosos destinatarios en las políticas públicas más complejas y conflictuales, sobre todo a nivel local.

Terrorismo, Yihadismo y Crimen Organizado en la Estrategia Global de Seguridad de la Unión Europea

El terrorismo es considerado en la Estrategia Global para la Política Exterior y de Seguridad de la UE como una de las principales amenazas a la seguridad de la Unión Europea. La lucha contra el terrorismo ha dado sus frutos en los últimos quince años, pero este artículo analiza la nueva Estrategia y se pregunta si será suficiente para responder con eficacia a esta amenaza y si se están empleando todos los medios necesarios para atajarla.

The importance of patient involvement in stroke rehabilitation

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the perceived needs for health services by persons with stroke within the first year after rehabilitation, and associations between perceived impact of stroke, involvement in decisions regarding care/treatment, and having health services needs met. METHOD: Data was collected, through a mail survey, from patients with stroke who were admitted to a university hospital in 2012 and had received rehabilitation after discharge from the stroke unit. The rehabilitation lasted an average of 2 to 4.6 months. The Stroke Survivor Needs Survey Questionnaire was used to assess the participants' perceptions of involvement in decisions on care or treatment and needs for health services in 11 problem areas: mobility, falls, incontinence, pain, fatigue, emotion, concentration, memory, speaking, reading, and sight. The perceived impact of stroke in eight areas was assessed using the Stroke Impact Scale (SIS) 3.0. Eleven logistic regression models were created to explore associations between having health services needs met in each problem area respectively (dependent variable) and the independent variables. In all models the independent variables were: age, sex, SIS domain corresponding to the dependent variable, or stroke severity in cases when no corresponding SIS domain was identified, and involvement in decisions on care and treatment. RESULTS: The 63 participants who returned the questionnaires had a mean age of 72 years, 33 were male and 30 were female. Eighty percent had suffered a mild stroke. The number of participants who reported problems varied between 51 (80%, mobility) and 24 (38%, sight). Involvement in decisions on care and treatment was found to be associated with having health services needs met in six problem areas: falls, fatigue, emotion, memory, speaking, and reading. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of involving patients in making decisions on stroke rehabilitation, as it appears to be associated with meeting their health services needs.