Optimal alarms systems and its application to financial time series

This thesis focuses on the application of optimal alarm systems to non linear time series models. The most common classes of models in the analysis of real-valued and integer-valued time series are described. The construction of optimal alarm systems is covered and its applications explored. Considering models with conditional heteroscedasticity, particular attention is given to the Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH, FIAPARCH(p; d; q) model and an optimal alarm system is implemented, following both classical and Bayesian methodologies. Taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the APARCH(p; q) representation for financial time series, the introduction of a possible counterpart for modelling time series of counts is proposed: the INteger-valued Asymmetric Power ARCH, INAPARCH(p; q). The probabilistic properties of the INAPARCH(1; 1) model are comprehensively studied, the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is applied and the asymptotic properties of the conditional ML estimator are obtained. The final part of the work consists on the implementation of an optimal alarm system to the INAPARCH(1; 1) model. An application is presented to real data series.

Co-localization of GnRH ligands and their receptors in the European sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax

The migration of the hypophysiotropic GnRH (GnRH-I) neurons during early development is a crucial step in establishing a normally functioning reproductive system in all vertebrates. These neurons derive from progenitor cells in the olfactory placode and subsequently migrate to their final position in the ventral forebrain, where they mediate hypophysiotropic control over Lh. We use zebrafish as a model to investigate the path and the factors that mediate the migration of the GnRH-I neurons during early development. A transgenic line of zebrafish, in which GnRH- I neurons specifically express a reporter gene (GFP) has been developed in our lab. This was achieved by integrating a GnRH-I promoter/GFP reporter transgene into the zebrafish genome. The resulting transgenic line allows us to track the route of the GnRH-I neuronal migration in real time and in vivo. We have used this line to conduct time lapse imaging to ascertain the exact migrational path and the final position in the ventral forebrain of the GnRH-I neurons.

Characteristics of Grass Pollen Seasons in Areas of Southern Spain and the United Kingdom

Spatial and temporal variations in daily grass pollen counts and weather variables are described for two regions with different bio-geographical and climatic regimes, southern Spain and the United Kingdom. Daily average grass pollen counts are considered from six pollen-monitoring sites, three in southern Spain (Ciudad Real, Córdoba and Priego) and three in the United Kingdom (Edinburgh, Worcester and Cambridge). Analysis shows that rainfall and maximum temperatures are important factors controlling the magnitude of the grass pollen season in both southern Spain and the United Kingdom, and that the strength and direction of the influence exerted by these variables varies with geographical location and time.

The challenge and response to global tourism in the post-modern era: the commodification, reconfiguration and mutual transformation of Habana Vieja, Cuba

There is a growing literature on the symbolic and cultural meanings of tourism and the ways in which cities are increasingly competing for tourists through the promotion of cultural assets and different forms of spectacle in the `tourist bubble'. To date, research on the role and impact of tourism in cities has largely been confined to those in Western, post-industrial economies. This paper examines the growth of cultural tourism in the central area of Havana, Cuba, and explores the range of unique, devolved, state-owned enterprises that are attempting to use tourism as a funding mechanism to achieve improvements in the social and cultural fabric of the city for the benefit of residents. The paper concludes with an assessment of the implications of this example for our understanding of how the pressures for restructuring and commodification can be moderated at the city level. Copyright 2008 SAGE Publications. All rights reserved. Not for commercial use or unauthorized distribution.

Agent-Based Simulation of the Evolution of Enterprise Carbon Assets

Carbon assets have the value of carbon emission reduction in enterprises and are closely relevant to business images and competitiveness. In this paper, the connotation of carbon assets is clarified. The definition of carbon assets in enterprise business contexts are also provided. In addition, an interactive evolution framework is established to demonstrate the emergent property of carbon assets using multi-agent-based simulation, which can bring a new perspective for enterprises to manage their carbon assets and improve low-carbon competitiveness.

MV producers and consumers agents characterization with DSM techniques

This paper consist in the establishment of a Virtual Producer/Consumer Agent (VPCA) in order to optimize the integrated management of distributed energy resources and to improve and control Demand Side Management DSM) and its aggregated loads. The paper presents the VPCA architecture and the proposed function-based organization to be used in order to coordinate the several generation technologies, the different load types and storage systems. This VPCA organization uses a frame work based on data mining techniques to characterize the costumers. The paper includes results of several experimental tests cases, using real data and taking into account electricity generation resources as well as consumption data.

Intelligent multi-player smart grid management considering distributed energy resources and demand response

The smart grid concept is rapidly evolving in the direction of practical implementations able to bring smart grid advantages into practice. Evolution in legacy equipment and infrastructures is not sufficient to accomplish the smart grid goals as it does not consider the needs of the players operating in a complex environment which is dynamic and competitive in nature. Artificial intelligence based applications can provide solutions to these problems, supporting decentralized intelligence and decision-making. A case study illustrates the importance of Virtual Power Players (VPP) and multi-player negotiation in the context of smart grids. This case study is based on real data and aims at optimizing energy resource management, considering generation, storage and demand response.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Garantias financeiras no setor segurador

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Mestre Armindo Licínio da Silva Macedo

Taxonomy of fundamental concepts of localization in cyber-physical and sensor networks

Localization is a fundamental task in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS), where data is tightly coupled with the environment and the location where it is generated. The research literature on localization has reached a critical mass, and several surveys have also emerged. This review paper contributes on the state-of-the-art with the proposal of a new and holistic taxonomy of the fundamental concepts of localization in CPS, based on a comprehensive analysis of previous research works and surveys. The main objective is to pave the way towards a deep understanding of the main localization techniques, and unify their descriptions. Furthermore, this review paper provides a complete overview on the most relevant localization and geolocation techniques. Also, we present the most important metrics for measuring the accuracy of localization approaches, which is meant to be the gap between the real location and its estimate. Finally, we present open issues and research challenges pertaining to localization. We believe that this review paper will represent an important and complete reference of localization techniques in CPS for researchers and practitioners and will provide them with an added value as compared to previous surveys.

Towards real multi-criticality scheduling

Componentised systems, in particular those with fault confinement through address spaces, are currently emerging as a hot topic in embedded systems research. This paper extends the unified rate-based scheduling framework RBED in several dimensions to fit the requirements of such systems: we have removed the requirement that the deadline of a task is equal to its period. The introduction of inter-process communication reflects the need to communicate. Additionally we also discuss server tasks, budget replenishment and the low level details needed to deal with the physical reality of systems. While a number of these issues have been studied in previous work in isolation, we focus on the problems discovered and lessons learned when integrating solutions. We report on our experiences implementing the proposed mechanisms in a commercial grade OKL4 microkernel as well as an application with soft real-time and best-effort tasks on top of it.

Double power laws, fractals and self-similarity

Power law (PL) distributions have been largely reported in the modeling of distinct real phenomena and have been associated with fractal structures and self-similar systems. In this paper, we analyze real data that follows a PL and a double PL behavior and verify the relation between the PL coefficient and the capacity dimension of known fractals. It is to be proved a method that translates PLs coefficients into capacity dimension of fractals of any real data.

Double power laws, fractals and self-similarity

Power law (PL) distributions have been largely reported in the modeling of distinct real phenomena and have been associated with fractal structures and self-similar systems. In this paper, we analyze real data that follows a PL and a double PL behavior and verify the relation between the PL coefficient and the capacity dimension of known fractals. It is to be proved a method that translates PLs coefficients into capacity dimension of fractals of any real data.

Derivation and consistency checking of models in early software product line engineering

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

Relating the spatial component and users interests to improve applications based on questions, petitions and participatory processes

Nowadays, participatory processes attending the need for real democracy and transparency in governments and collectives are more needed than ever. Immediate participation through channels like social networks enable people to give their opinion and become pro-active citizens, seeking applications to interact with each other. The application described in this dissertation is a hybrid channel of communication of questions, petitions and participatory processes based on Public Participation Geographic Information System (PPGIS), Participation Geographic Information System (PGIS) and ‘soft’ (subjective data) Geographic Information System (SoftGIS) methodologies. To achieve a new approach to an application, its entire design is focused on the spatial component related with user interests. The spatial component is treated as main feature of the system to develop all others depending on it, enabling new features never seen before in social actions (questions, petitions and participatory processes). Results prove that it is possible to develop a working application mainly using open source software, with the possibility of spatial and subject filtering, visualizing and free download of actions within application. The resulting application empowers society by releasing soft data and defines a new breaking approach, unseen so far.