A Valuation of SAREB, the Spanish “Bad Bank”, Upside Using the Real Options Methodology

This paper develops a model to analyze the upside potential of profitability of the SAREB (“Asset Management Company for Assets Arising from Bank Restructuring”), the Spanish “Bad Bank”. The model is based in the Real Options methodology, that is especially adequate due to the convergence of two elements, (i) depreciated assets with a high upside potential, and (ii) a highly volatile market as it has shown to be the real estate Spanish market. Our results suggest that the SAREB has a higher than expected profitability potentialthat would be dedicated to increase the return to its shareholders, mainly private banks. Consequently we also show that after the financial crisis are emerging two types of banks in Spain, in one hand the losers who are transferring their real estate assets at a deep discount, and in the other hand the winners, capturing the upside potential of those assets as shareholders of SAREB, and consequently consolidating their strength in the Spanish Real Estate Industry. It is worth to mention that Governments should make an effort in properly redistribute the wealth generated by the real Estate industry.

Developments in the Agricultural and Rural Capital Market of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 9, October 2011

The undeveloped rural capital market in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is constrained by an urban–rural development gap, with limited capacities for rural development and imperfections in the rural capital market. Among the most striking hindrances are the illegal status of a large share of agricultural buildings and other real estate in rural areas, particularly on the individual family farms that prevail in the country, and the insufficient knowledge and abilities of individual farmers in applying for credit. National, EU and other donor funds are being used to improve knowledge, skills and other human resources, and to address the illegal status of buildings and facilities. In recent years, government support for agricultural, rural and regional development has been introduced to promote good agricultural practices, production and economic activity in rural areas. The elimination of imperfections and improvements to the functioning of the capital market – making access to credit and funds easier, especially for small-scale family farms and for rural development – are seen as measures contributing to agriculture and more balanced rural and regional development.

A study of stock market fluctuations and their relation to business conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

Impact of Rapid Transit on the Residential Market in Hudson County, New Jersey

The New York Metropolitan region is one of the most populous urban agglomerations in the world, and the single largest in North America.[1] It is also one of the most prominent economic centers, with New York City at the epicenter of its growth. With the entire region growing rapidly over the last decade, it is essential to analyze the socio-economic changes in order to understand the impact it has on commercial real estate. With its focus on housing rentals, this study aims to highlight housing costs as a function of rapid transit over time.

Energy and ancillary services joint market simulation

In order to develop a flexible simulator, a variety of models for Ancillary Services (AS) negotiation has been implemented in MASCEM – a multi-agent system competitive electricity markets simulator. In some of these models, the energy and the AS are addressed simultaneously while in other models they are addressed separately. This paper presents an energy and ancillary services joint market simulation. This paper proposes a deterministic approach for solving the energy and ancillary services joint market. A case study based on the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve, and Non-Spinning Reserve services is used to demonstrate that the use of the developed methodology is suitable for solving this kind of optimization problem. The presented case study is based on CAISO real AS market data considers fifteen bids.

Fundos de investimento imobiliário

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Análise comparativa entre a promoção para arrendamento e venda de imóveis de habitação

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Edificações

Projecto de investimento imobiliário no edifício residencial no Estoril

Trabalho de Projecto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

Um sistema de informação – a solução?

Pequenas empresas reconhecem a necessidade de sistematizar os seus procedimentos, por forma, a alcançarem sucesso nas suas propostas de negócio. Esta padronização pressupõe uma avaliação do enquadramento social e de mercado existente e dos valores, missão e objetivos das próprias empresas. As constantes inovações na área tecnológica e as mudanças sociais, refletem-se no desenvolvimento e estratégia a seguir pelas organizações, que se desdobram num ambiente muito competitivo e dinâmico, o que lhes exige uma atenção constante e ponderada. Ao analisarmos uma micro empresa portuguesa, que desenvolve a sua atividade na área da gestão e promoção de imóveis para arrendamento de curta duração, verificamos a existência de lacunas ao nível do seu modelo de gestão operacional. A escassez de meios financeiros e humanos, e o fraco conhecimento das práticas de gestão organizacional e estratégica, são fatores limitadores para o bom desempenho da empresa, podendo colocar em causa a sua viabilidade a curto prazo. Esta constatação foi o ponto de partida para a realização deste projeto que, após as diversas leituras efetuadas, o levantamento dos processos existentes, a análise e ponderação das diversas soluções possíveis a aplicar, terminou na proposta de um Sistema de Informação - opção que nos pareceu ser a mais adequada. Esta proposta foi aprovada pela gestão da empresa e o Sistema de Informação irá ser implementado. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo ajudar esta organização a melhorar o seu desempenho. Para atingir estes objetivos foi necessário elencar os pontos fortes e fracos desta empresa, de forma a ser possível agregar num documento, as necessidades que a mesma demonstrava, para colmatar as falhas existentes e que poderiam ser, num futuro próximo, motivo de desagregação da mesma. A metodologia adotada seguiu uma estratégia de investigação descritiva, utilizando o método de investigação-ação. A recolha de dados baseou-se em entrevistas à equipa de gestão e colaboradores da empresa, em documentação levantada na mesma relativa aos processos de gestão e informação institucional, cujos conteúdos foram analisados numa perspetiva qualitativa.

A avaliação e o investimento imobiliário

O documento que seguidamente se desenvolve, tem como fundamental objetivo a descrição do trabalho efetuado ao longo de um estágio semestral realizado, pelo mestrando, na empresa QUALITAS – Sociedade de Avaliações Técnicas, Lda., subordinado ao tema «A Avaliação e o Investimento Imobiliário». Através do estágio é cumprida uma parte do plano do mestrado, tendo sido assim possível colocar em prática os conhecimentos teóricos absorvidos previamente na formação académica detida. Os objetivos previstos para o estágio consistiam no acompanhamento de diversos casos de estudo relativos à avaliação imobiliária, em ambiente empresarial, abrangendo usos e destinos variados e, ainda, o levantamento bibliográfico de suporte, apoiado pela frequência de um curso de avaliação imobiliária em simultâneo com o estágio. As avaliações imobiliárias realizadas foram geralmente precedidas de visitas aos locais, implicando prospeção de mercado no terreno, para aplicação das metodologias apresentadas, sendo que em todos os casos o supervisor revia os trabalhos. Com o resumo da atualidade da avaliação imobiliária, referindo investimentos, legislação, entidades, metodologias e ainda outros pontos essenciais, prevê-se demonstrar o conhecimento adquirido pelo estagiário. Pode concluir-se que o setor está em reestruturação gradual, tida como essencial para a evolução da área, que se presume culminar numa profissão bastante mais restrita, rigorosa e fiável. A formação que se pretende exigir aos peritos é uma ferramenta essencial ao desempenho de um trabalho exemplar e o estágio uma oportunidade de aprender in situ, aplicando conhecimentos anteriormente adquiridos.

Upgrade of an industrial building: BIM model of the as-built situation and evaluation of modifications

Dissertação de mestrado integrado in Civil Engineering

Os desafios da comunicação integrada no grupo dst: fazer negócios a falar de cultura

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Publicidade e Relações Públicas)

Simulating Wages and House Prices Using the NEG

The paper incorporates house prices within an NEG framework leading to the spatial distributions of wages, prices and income. The model assumes that all expenditure goes to firms under a monopolistic competition market structure, that labour efficiency units are appropriate, and that spatial equilibrium exists. The house price model coefficients are estimated outside the NEG model, allowing an econometric analysis of the significance of relevant covariates. The paper illustrates the methodology by estimating wages, income and prices for small administrative areas in Great Britain, and uses the model to simulate the effects of an exogenous employment shock.