On the design of education conditional cash transfer programs and non education outcomes: the case of teenage pregnancy

We investigate the effect of education Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) on teenage pregnancy. Our main concern is with how the size and sign of the effect may depend on the design of the program. Using a simple model we show that an education CCT that conditions renewal on school performance reduces teenage pregnancy; the program can increase teenage pregnancy if it does not condition on school performance. Then, using an original data base, we estimate the causal impact on teenage pregnancy of two education CCTs implemented in Bogot´a (Subsidio Educativo, SE, and Familias en Acci´on, FA); both programs differ particularly on whether school success is a condition for renewal or not. We show that SE has negative average effect on teenage pregnancy while FA has a null average effect. We also find that SE has either null or no effect for adolescents in all age and grade groups while FA has positive, null or negative effects for adolescents in different age and grade groups. Since SE conditions renewal on school success and FA does not, we can argue that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of our model and that conditioning renewal of the subsidy on school success crucially determines the effect of the subsidy on teenage pregnancy

Energy saving innovations, non-exhaustible sources of energy and long-run: what would happen if we run out of oil?

We formulate and solve a model of factor saving technological improvement considering three factors of production: labor, capital and energy. The productive activities have three main characteristics: first, in order to use capital goods firms need energy; second, there are two sources of energy: non-exhaustible and exhaustible; third, capital goods can be of different qualities and the quality of these goods can be changed along two dimensions -reducing the need of energy or changing the source of energy used in the production process. The economy goes through three stages of development after industrialization. In the first, firms make use of exhaustible energy and the e¢ ciency in the use of energy is constant. In the second stage, as the price of energy grows the e¢ ciency in its use is increased. In the third stage, the price of exhaustible sources is so high that firms have incentives to use non-exhaustible sources of energy. During this stage the price of energy is constant. In this set up, the end of the oil age has level effects on consumption and output but it does not cause the collapse of the economic system.

Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models

Este documento estima modelos lineales y no-lineales de corrección de errores para los precios spot de cuatro tipos de café. En concordancia con las leyes económicas, se encuentra evidencia que cuando los precios están por encima de su nivel de equilibrio, retornan a éste mas lentamente que cuando están por debajo. Esto puede reflejar el hecho que, en el corto plazo, para los países productores de café es mas fácil restringir la oferta para incrementar precios, que incrementarla para reducirlos. Además, se encuentra evidencia que el ajuste es más rápido cuando las desviaciones del equilibrio son mayores. Los pronósticos que se obtienen a partir de los modelos de corrección de errores no lineales y asimétricos considerados en el trabajo, ofrecen una leve mejoría cuando se comparan con los pronósticos que resultan de un modelo de paseo aleatorio.

Essays on International trade and economic growth

At present, we are witnessing globalization as a truly worldwide phenomenon. Trade agreements among differing countries, a reduction in trade costs, the mobility of production factors, the free flow of information and so on are all proof of the present day era of globalization. Countries are trading with one another more and more every day and the effects of international trade on economies represent a central discussion in all economic spheres. In spite of increasing trade around the world and the promotion of globalization by multilateral organisms such as WTO and IMF, the effects of international trade are not yet clear. Economics literature concerning the effects of international trade on economic growth and welfare remains ambiguous in terms of both theoretical models and empirical research. The present thesis tries to contribute to the theoretical debate surrounding the effects of dynamic international trade, focusing in particular on the implications for economic growth, welfare and changes in the preferences of individuals.

Análisis de perdurabilidad de las empresas que se acogieron a la ley 550 de 1999

A finales del Siglo XX, Colombia se encontraba en un escenario bastante complicado en relación con la situación del país en años anteriores. Todo esto, debido a que el país se vio afligido por una serie de situaciones adversas: el desempleo, la violencia y catástrofes naturales, fueron una de las muchas cosas que generaron un grave periodo de recesión en el país. Frente a estos desafortunados acontecimientos, y en búsqueda de propiciar y fortalecer la economía del país, el Gobierno decide en su momento, intervenir en la economía local, principalmente en el Sector Privado, con el fin de normalizar la actividad productiva del país en todos los sectores económico. Para esto, el Gobierno en conjunto con la Superintendencia de Sociedades y teniendo en cuenta la devaluación de la moneda, las altas tasas de interés que existían en ese entonces, y, la disminución de la demanda, deciden desarrollar mecanismos de conciliación tanto para los deudores como para los acreedores con el fin de reactivar la economía y mejorar la situación financiera y contable del sector productivo y de servicios, con el fin de superar la crisis en la que se encontraban sumergidos en ese entonces. La ley 550, constituida en el año 1999 y también conocida como la Ley de Insolvencia Económica, otorgo herramientas para la reestructuración de empresas que decidieron acogerse a dicha ley, a un total de 1.323 empresas que se encontraban en proceso de liquidación. Para poder acceder a este proceso de reestructuración, además de cumplir con ciertos requisitos que se mencionaran posteriormente, las empresas que podían acceder a esta ley, debían encontrarse en mora en el pago de 2 o más obligaciones por un periodo mayor a noventa días, o, se debían encontrar envueltas en por lo menos 2 demandas ejecutivas por mora en el pago de cualquier deuda adquirida en nombre de dichas empresas.

Asistencia a Educación Preescolar y Desempeño Escolar en el Largo Plazo, Evidencia para Colombia

Reconociendo la importancia que tienen las inversiones durante los primeros años del ciclo de vida, en este documento se estima el efecto de la asistencia a preescolar sobre el desempeño escolar de largo plazo, medido a través del puntaje en las áreas de lenguaje y matemáticas de la prueba Saber 11 en Colombia. Para ello, se realiza la aproximación empírica a través de la metodología de variables instrumentales. Los resultados indican que la asistencia a un año adicional de educación preescolar reduce en 0.121 desviaciones estándar el puntaje obtenido en el área de lenguaje. No obstante, se identifica un efecto diferenciado a partir de variables que dan cuenta del estatus socioeconómico de los individuos.

Development of a simple index to predict benefit and satisfaction from amplification

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of non-audiological patient-based variables; amount of bother, importance of improved hearing, and expectations, as reliable predictors of benefit and satisfaction from amplification. Study findings were then used to develop two initial prognostic indices.

El desarrollo rural: sine qua non del desarrollo nacional (Otros Temas)

El artículo identifica sintéticamente, primero, las relaciones de poder económico y político a nivel nacional que históricamente han obstaculizado el desarrollo rural en América Latina, segundo, la importancia del desarrollo rural en relación con la persistencia de desigualdades sociales –enraizadas en el campo– que explican la falta de, o los problemas fundamentales del desarrollo nacional, tercero, algunas dimensiones internacionales de los conflictos rurales contemporáneos, y finalmente, unas sugerencias generales para la formulación de políticas alternativas a la aplicación dogmática de las recetas neoliberales.

Economic impact of genetically modified cotton in India

This paper presents the results of a study aimed at measuring the economic impact of genetically modified cotton in Maharashtra State, India. It is the first study of its kind in India in that the data have been collected from farmers growing the crop under market conditions, rather than from trials. The research compares the performance of more than 9,000 Bt and non-Bt cotton farm plots in Maharashtra over the 2002 and 2003 growing seasons. Results show that Bt cotton varieties have had a significant positive impact on average yields and on the economic performance of cotton growers.

Farm-level economic performance of genetically modified cotton in Maharashtra, India

A study of the commercial growing of Bacillus flutringiensis (Bt) cotton in India, compares the performance of over 9,000 Bt and non-Bt cotton farm plots in Maharashtra over the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Results show that since their commercial release in 2002, Bt cotton varieties have had a significant positive impact on average yields and on the economic performance of cotton growers. Regional variation showed that, in a very few areas, not all farmers had benefited from increased performance of Bt varieties.

Genetically modified insect resistance in cotton: some farm level economic impacts in India

The paper explores the impact of insect-resistant Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton on costs and returns over the first two seasons of its commercial release in three sub-regions of Maharashtra State, India. It is the first such research conducted in India based on farmers' own practices rather than trial plots. Data were collected for a total of 7793 cotton plots in 2002 and 1577 plots in 2003. Results suggest that while the cost of cotton seed was much higher for farmers growing Bt cotton relative to those growing non-Bt cotton, the costs of bollworm spray were much lower. While Bt plots had greater costs (seed plus insecticide) than non-Bt plots, the yields and revenue from Bt plots were much higher than those of non-Bt plots (some 39% and 63% higher in 2002 and 2003, respectively). Overall, the gross margins of Bt plots were some 43% (2002) and 73% (2003) higher than those of non-Bt plots, although there was some variation between the three sub-regions of the state. The results suggest that Bt cotton has provided substantial benefits for farmers in India over the 2 years, but there are questions as to whether these benefits are sustainable. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The unpatriotism of the economic constitution? Rights to free movement and their impact on national and European identity

Abstract: Instead of the political reading of the EU Constitution adopted by advocates of constitutional patriotism, this article examines the European economic constitution. The four single market freedoms can be used by the Court of Justice to strike down Member State laws which represent deeply held aspects of national cultural identity. The article examines whether the court does in fact act in this way and proceeds to argue that the issue of identity protection does not stop with the court. In those policy areas where the court is more interventionist, and its case-law is perceived as an identity threat, one is likely to find binding Treaty-based derogations. Where, in contrast, the effect of the court's case-law poses less of a threat, one is more likely to see non-binding declarations. The article examines a number of policy areas in which specific cultural derogations and declarations are to be found, including abortion, property acquisition, football and alcohol control.

Farm-level economic performance of genetically modified cotton in Maharashtra, India

A study of the commercial growing of Bacillus flutringiensis (Bt) cotton in India, compares the performance of over 9,000 Bt and non-Bt cotton farm plots in Maharashtra over the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Results show that since their commercial release in 2002, Bt cotton varieties have had a significant positive impact on average yields and on the economic performance of cotton growers. Regional variation showed that, in a very few areas, not all farmers had benefited from increased performance of Bt varieties.

Genetically modified insect resistance in cotton: some farm level economic impacts in India

The paper explores the impact of insect-resistant Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton on costs and returns over the first two seasons of its commercial release in three sub-regions of Maharashtra State, India. It is the first such research conducted in India based on farmers' own practices rather than trial plots. Data were collected for a total of 7793 cotton plots in 2002 and 1577 plots in 2003. Results suggest that while the cost of cotton seed was much higher for farmers growing Bt cotton relative to those growing non-Bt cotton, the costs of bollworm spray were much lower. While Bt plots had greater costs (seed plus insecticide) than non-Bt plots, the yields and revenue from Bt plots were much higher than those of non-Bt plots (some 39% and 63% higher in 2002 and 2003, respectively). Overall, the gross margins of Bt plots were some 43% (2002) and 73% (2003) higher than those of non-Bt plots, although there was some variation between the three sub-regions of the state. The results suggest that Bt cotton has provided substantial benefits for farmers in India over the 2 years, but there are questions as to whether these benefits are sustainable. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A cost-benefit analysis of culling badgers to control bovine tuberculosis

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important economic problem. The incidence of TB in cattle herds has steadily risen in the UK, and badgers are strongly implicated in spreading disease. Since the mid-1970s the UK government has adopted a number of badger culling strategies to attempt to reduce infection in cattle. In this report, an established model has been used to simulate TB in badgers, transmission to cattle, and control by badger culling. Costs were supplied by the UK Government's Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) for badger trapping and gassing. Regardless of culling intensity or area simulated, an overall reduction in the herd breakdown rate was seen. With a high culling efficacy and no social perturbation, the mean Net Present Value of a few simulated culling strategies in an "ideal world" was positive, meaning the economic benefits outweighed the costs. Further work is required before these results could be considered definitive, as it is necessary to evaluate uncertainties and simulate less than perfect conditions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.