Energy-level statistics of interacting trapped bosons

It is a well-established fact that statistical properties of energy-level spectra are the most efficient tool to characterize nonintegrable quantum systems. The statistical behavior of different systems such as complex atoms, atomic nuclei, two-dimensional Hamiltonians, quantum billiards, and noninteracting many bosons has been studied. The study of statistical properties and spectral fluctuations in interacting many-boson systems has developed interest in this direction. We are especially interested in weakly interacting trapped bosons in the context of Bose-Einstein condensation (BEC) as the energy spectrum shows a transition from a collective nature to a single-particle nature with an increase in the number of levels. However this has received less attention as it is believed that the system may exhibit Poisson-like fluctuations due to the existence of an external harmonic trap. Here we compute numerically the energy levels of the zero-temperature many-boson systems which are weakly interacting through the van der Waals potential and are confined in the three-dimensional harmonic potential. We study the nearest-neighbor spacing distribution and the spectral rigidity by unfolding the spectrum. It is found that an increase in the number of energy levels for repulsive BEC induces a transition from a Wigner-like form displaying level repulsion to the Poisson distribution for P(s). It does not follow the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble prediction. For repulsive interaction, the lower levels are correlated and manifest level-repulsion. For intermediate levels P(s) shows mixed statistics, which clearly signifies the existence of two energy scales: external trap and interatomic interaction, whereas for very high levels the trapping potential dominates, generating a Poisson distribution. Comparison with mean-field results for lower levels are also presented. For attractive BEC near the critical point we observe the Shnirelman-like peak near s = 0, which signifies the presence of a large number of quasidegenerate states.

Classical limit of the Nelson model

Since the development of quantum mechanics it has been natural to analyze the connection between classical and quantum mechanical descriptions of physical systems. In particular one should expect that in some sense when quantum mechanical effects becomes negligible the system will behave like it is dictated by classical mechanics. One famous relation between classical and quantum theory is due to Ehrenfest. This result was later developed and put on firm mathematical foundations by Hepp. He proved that matrix elements of bounded functions of quantum observables between suitable coherents states (that depend on Planck's constant h) converge to classical values evolving according to the expected classical equations when h goes to zero. His results were later generalized by Ginibre and Velo to bosonic systems with infinite degrees of freedom and scattering theory. In this thesis we study the classical limit of Nelson model, that describes non relativistic particles, whose evolution is dictated by Schrödinger equation, interacting with a scalar relativistic field, whose evolution is dictated by Klein-Gordon equation, by means of a Yukawa-type potential. The classical limit is a mean field and weak coupling limit. We proved that the transition amplitude of a creation or annihilation operator, between suitable coherent states, converges in the classical limit to the solution of the system of differential equations that describes the classical evolution of the theory. The quantum evolution operator converges to the evolution operator of fluctuations around the classical solution. Transition amplitudes of normal ordered products of creation and annihilation operators between coherent states converge to suitable products of the classical solutions. Transition amplitudes of normal ordered products of creation and annihilation operators between fixed particle states converge to an average of products of classical solutions, corresponding to different initial conditions.

Thermal Casimir effect at fluid interfaces: Fluctuation-induced forces between anisotropic colloids

We study the effective interaction between two ellipsoidal particles at the interface of two fluid phases which are mediated by thermal fluctuations of the interface. Within a coarse-grained picture, the properties of fluid interfaces are very well described by an effective capillary wave Hamiltonian which governs both the equilibrium interface configuration and the thermal fluctuations (capillary waves) around this equilibrium (or mean-field) position. As postulated by the Goldstone theorem the capillary waves are long-range correlated. The interface breaks the continuous translational symmetry of the system, and in the limit of vanishing external fields - like gravity - it has to be accompanied by easily excitable long wavelength (Goldstone) modes – precisely the capillary waves. In this system the restriction of the long-ranged interface fluctuations by particles gives rise to fluctuation-induced forces which are equivalent to interactions of Casimir type and which are anisotropic in the interface plane. Since the position and the orientation of the colloids with respect to the interface normal may also fluctuate, this system is an example for the Casimir effect with fluctuating boundary conditions. In the approach taken here, the Casimir interaction is rewritten as the interaction between fluctuating multipole moments of an auxiliary charge density-like field defined on the area enclosed by the contact lines. These fluctuations are coupled to fluctuations of multipole moments of the contact line position (due to the possible position and orientational fluctuations of the colloids). We obtain explicit expressions for the behavior of the Casimir interaction at large distances for arbitrary ellipsoid aspect ratios. If colloid fluctuations are suppressed, the Casimir interaction at large distances is isotropic, attractive and long ranged (double-logarithmic in the distance). If, however, colloid fluctuations are included, the Casimir interaction at large distances changes to a power law in the inverse distance and becomes anisotropic. The leading power is 4 if only vertical fluctuations of the colloid center are allowed, and it becomes 8 if also orientational fluctuations are included.

Superfluid and antiferromagnetic phases in ultracold fermionic quantum gases

In this thesis several models are treated, which are relevant for ultracold fermionic quantum gases loaded onto optical lattices. In particular, imbalanced superfluid Fermi mixtures, which are considered as the best way to realize Fulde-Ferrell-Larkin-Ovchinnikov (FFLO) states experimentally, and antiferromagnetic states, whose experimental realization is one of the next major goals, are examined analytically and numerically with the use of appropriate versions of the Hubbard model.rnrnThe usual Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS) superconductor is known to break down in a magnetic field with a strength exceeding the size of the superfluid gap. A spatially inhomogeneous spin-imbalanced superconductor with a complex order parameter known as FFLO-state is predicted to occur in translationally invariant systems. Since in ultracold quantum gases the experimental setups have a limited size and a trapping potential, we analyze the realistic situation of a non-translationally invariant finite sized Hubbard model for this purpose. We first argue analytically, why the order parameter should be real in a system with continuous coordinates, and map our statements onto the Hubbard model with discrete coordinates defined on a lattice. The relevant Hubbard model is then treated numerically within mean field theory. We show that the numerical results agree with our analytically derived statements and we simulate various experimentally relevant systems in this thesis.rnrnAnalogous calculations are presented for the situation at repulsive interaction strength where the N'eel state is expected to be realized experimentally in the near future. We map our analytical results obtained for the attractive model onto corresponding results for the repulsive model. We obtain a spatially invariant unit vector defining the direction of the order parameter as a consequence of the trapping potential, which is affirmed by our mean field numerical results for the repulsive case. Furthermore, we observe domain wall formation, antiferromagnetically induced density shifts, and we show the relevant role of spin-imbalance for antiferromagnetic states.rnrnSince the first step for understanding the physics of the examined models was the application of a mean field approximation, we analyze the effect of including the second order terms of the weak coupling perturbation expansion for the repulsive model. We show that our results survive the influence of quantum fluctuations and show that the renormalization factors for order parameters and critical temperatures lead to a weaker influence of the fluctuations on the results in finite sized systems than on the results in the thermodynamical limit. Furthermore, in the context of second order theory we address the question whether results obtained in the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT), which is meanwhile a frequently used method for describing trapped systems, survive the effect of the non-local Feynman diagrams neglected in DMFT.

Master Equation: Biological Applications and Thermodynamic Description

It is well known that many realistic mathematical models of biological systems, such as cell growth, cellular development and differentiation, gene expression, gene regulatory networks, enzyme cascades, synaptic plasticity, aging and population growth need to include stochasticity. These systems are not isolated, but rather subject to intrinsic and extrinsic fluctuations, which leads to a quasi equilibrium state (homeostasis). The natural framework is provided by Markov processes and the Master equation (ME) describes the temporal evolution of the probability of each state, specified by the number of units of each species. The ME is a relevant tool for modeling realistic biological systems and allow also to explore the behavior of open systems. These systems may exhibit not only the classical thermodynamic equilibrium states but also the nonequilibrium steady states (NESS). This thesis deals with biological problems that can be treat with the Master equation and also with its thermodynamic consequences. It is organized into six chapters with four new scientific works, which are grouped in two parts: (1) Biological applications of the Master equation: deals with the stochastic properties of a toggle switch, involving a protein compound and a miRNA cluster, known to control the eukaryotic cell cycle and possibly involved in oncogenesis and with the propose of a one parameter family of master equations for the evolution of a population having the logistic equation as mean field limit. (2) Nonequilibrium thermodynamics in terms of the Master equation: where we study the dynamical role of chemical fluxes that characterize the NESS of a chemical network and we propose a one parameter parametrization of BCM learning, that was originally proposed to describe plasticity processes, to study the differences between systems in DB and NESS.

Numerical studies of colloidal systems

The interplay of hydrodynamic and electrostatic forces is of great importance for the understanding of colloidal dispersions. Theoretical descriptions are often based on the so called standard electrokinetic model. This Mean Field approach combines the Stokes equation for the hydrodynamic flow field, the Poisson equation for electrostatics and a continuity equation describing the evolution of the ion concentration fields. In the first part of this thesis a new lattice method is presented in order to efficiently solve the set of non-linear equations for a charge-stabilized colloidal dispersion in the presence of an external electric field. Within this framework, the research is mainly focused on the calculation of the electrophoretic mobility. Since this transport coefficient is independent of the electric field only for small driving, the algorithm is based upon a linearization of the governing equations. The zeroth order is the well known Poisson-Boltzmann theory and the first order is a coupled set of linear equations. Furthermore, this set of equations is divided into several subproblems. A specialized solver for each subproblem is developed, and various tests and applications are discussed for every particular method. Finally, all solvers are combined in an iterative procedure and applied to several interesting questions, for example, the effect of the screening mechanism on the electrophoretic mobility or the charge dependence of the field-induced dipole moment and ion clouds surrounding a weakly charged sphere. In the second part a quantitative data analysis method is developed for a new experimental approach, known as "Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence Cross-Correlation Spectroscopy" (TIR-FCCS). The TIR-FCCS setup is an optical method using fluorescent colloidal particles to analyze the flow field close to a solid-fluid interface. The interpretation of the experimental results requires a theoretical model, which is usually the solution of a convection-diffusion equation. Since an analytic solution is not available due to the form of the flow field and the boundary conditions, an alternative numerical approach is presented. It is based on stochastic methods, i. e. a combination of a Brownian Dynamics algorithm and Monte Carlo techniques. Finally, experimental measurements for a hydrophilic surface are analyzed using this new numerical approach.

A mesoscopic simulation method for electrolyte solutions

This thesis deals with the development of a novel simulation technique for macromolecules in electrolyte solutions, with the aim of a performance improvement over current molecular-dynamics based simulation methods. In solutions containing charged macromolecules and salt ions, it is the complex interplay of electrostatic interactions and hydrodynamics that determines the equilibrium and non-equilibrium behavior. However, the treatment of the solvent and dissolved ions makes up the major part of the computational effort. Thus an efficient modeling of both components is essential for the performance of a method. With the novel method we approach the solvent in a coarse-grained fashion and replace the explicit-ion description by a dynamic mean-field treatment. Hence we combine particle- and field-based descriptions in a hybrid method and thereby effectively solve the electrokinetic equations. The developed algorithm is tested extensively in terms of accuracy and performance, and suitable parameter sets are determined. As a first application we study charged polymer solutions (polyelectrolytes) in shear flow with focus on their viscoelastic properties. Here we also include semidilute solutions, which are computationally demanding. Secondly we study the electro-osmotic flow on superhydrophobic surfaces, where we perform a detailed comparison to theoretical predictions.

Exact quantum Monte Carlo methods for correlated electron systems

Thema dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung und Kombination verschiedener numerischer Methoden, sowie deren Anwendung auf Probleme stark korrelierter Elektronensysteme. Solche Materialien zeigen viele interessante physikalische Eigenschaften, wie z.B. Supraleitung und magnetische Ordnung und spielen eine bedeutende Rolle in technischen Anwendungen. Es werden zwei verschiedene Modelle behandelt: das Hubbard-Modell und das Kondo-Gitter-Modell (KLM). In den letzten Jahrzehnten konnten bereits viele Erkenntnisse durch die numerische Lösung dieser Modelle gewonnen werden. Dennoch bleibt der physikalische Ursprung vieler Effekte verborgen. Grund dafür ist die Beschränkung aktueller Methoden auf bestimmte Parameterbereiche. Eine der stärksten Einschränkungen ist das Fehlen effizienter Algorithmen für tiefe Temperaturen.rnrnBasierend auf dem Blankenbecler-Scalapino-Sugar Quanten-Monte-Carlo (BSS-QMC) Algorithmus präsentieren wir eine numerisch exakte Methode, die das Hubbard-Modell und das KLM effizient bei sehr tiefen Temperaturen löst. Diese Methode wird auf den Mott-Übergang im zweidimensionalen Hubbard-Modell angewendet. Im Gegensatz zu früheren Studien können wir einen Mott-Übergang bei endlichen Temperaturen und endlichen Wechselwirkungen klar ausschließen.rnrnAuf der Basis dieses exakten BSS-QMC Algorithmus, haben wir einen Störstellenlöser für die dynamische Molekularfeld Theorie (DMFT) sowie ihre Cluster Erweiterungen (CDMFT) entwickelt. Die DMFT ist die vorherrschende Theorie stark korrelierter Systeme, bei denen übliche Bandstrukturrechnungen versagen. Eine Hauptlimitation ist dabei die Verfügbarkeit effizienter Störstellenlöser für das intrinsische Quantenproblem. Der in dieser Arbeit entwickelte Algorithmus hat das gleiche überlegene Skalierungsverhalten mit der inversen Temperatur wie BSS-QMC. Wir untersuchen den Mott-Übergang im Rahmen der DMFT und analysieren den Einfluss von systematischen Fehlern auf diesen Übergang.rnrnEin weiteres prominentes Thema ist die Vernachlässigung von nicht-lokalen Wechselwirkungen in der DMFT. Hierzu kombinieren wir direkte BSS-QMC Gitterrechnungen mit CDMFT für das halb gefüllte zweidimensionale anisotrope Hubbard Modell, das dotierte Hubbard Modell und das KLM. Die Ergebnisse für die verschiedenen Modelle unterscheiden sich stark: während nicht-lokale Korrelationen eine wichtige Rolle im zweidimensionalen (anisotropen) Modell spielen, ist in der paramagnetischen Phase die Impulsabhängigkeit der Selbstenergie für stark dotierte Systeme und für das KLM deutlich schwächer. Eine bemerkenswerte Erkenntnis ist, dass die Selbstenergie sich durch die nicht-wechselwirkende Dispersion parametrisieren lässt. Die spezielle Struktur der Selbstenergie im Impulsraum kann sehr nützlich für die Klassifizierung von elektronischen Korrelationseffekten sein und öffnet den Weg für die Entwicklung neuer Schemata über die Grenzen der DMFT hinaus.

Bulk Metallic Glasses Deform via Slip Avalanches

For the first time in metallic glasses, we extract both the exponents and scaling functions that describe the nature, statistics, and dynamics of slip events during slow deformation, according to a simple mean field model. We model the slips as avalanches of rearrangements of atoms in coupled shear transformation zones (STZs). Using high temporal resolution measurements, we find the predicted, different statistics and dynamics for small and large slips thereby excluding self-organized criticality. The agreement between model and data across numerous independent measures provides evidence for slip avalanches of STZs as the elementary mechanism of inhomogeneous deformation in metallic glasses.

Phase diagram with an enhanced spin-glass region of the mixed Ising–XY magnet LiHo{x}Er{1-x}F{4}

We present the experimental phase diagram of LiHoxEr1-xF4, a dilution series of dipolar-coupled model magnets. The phase diagram was determined using a combination of ac susceptibility and neutron scattering. Three unique phases in addition to the Ising ferromagnet LiHoF4 and the XY antiferromagnet LiErF4 have been identified. Below x = 0.86, an embedded spin-glass phase is observed, where a spin glass exists within the ferromagnetic structure. Below x = 0.57, an Ising spin glass is observed consisting of frozen needlelike clusters. For x ∼ 0.3–0.1, an antiferromagnetically coupled spin glass occurs. A reduction of TC(x) for the ferromagnet is observed which disobeys the mean-field predictions that worked for LiHoxY1-xF4.

Temporally Coherent Disparity Maps Using CRFs with Fast 4D Filtering

State of the art methods for disparity estimation achieve good results for single stereo frames, but temporal coherence in stereo videos is often neglected. In this paper we present a method to compute temporally coherent disparity maps. We define an energy over whole stereo sequences and optimize their Conditional Random Field (CRF) distributions using mean-field approximation. We introduce novel terms for smoothness and consistency between the left and right views, and perform CRF optimization by fast, iterative spatio-temporal filtering with linear complexity in the total number of pixels. Our results rank among the state of the art while having significantly less flickering artifacts in stereo sequences.

(Table 2) Atmospheric electric measurements during the Atlantic Expedition 1965 of METEOR

During the Atlantic expedition potential gradient, small ion density and space charge density have been recorded. Laborious efforts have been taken for receiving an exact estimation of the reduction factor for the field measurements. The mean value of the potential gradient on the free Atlantic Ocean was 105 V/m. The mean daily course is in very good agreement with the results of the Carnegie Institution. Even records taken on individual days near the quator show this course. For the first time it has been attempted to correlate the potential gradient at sea and the voltage between ionosphere and earth measured over land. A narrow relation has been found in 10 cases of balloon ascents with radiosondes. A further remarkable result is, that the short periodical fluctuations of the air electric field at sea with periods of 2 to 20 minutes have amplitudes of the magnitude of the mean field strength and exist all over the oceans. Recordings of the space charge density show, that positively charged air parcels drift in the first hectometer of the air near the sea surface and produce the fluctuation of the potential gradient. A period analysis did not indicate a recognizable relation to the wind velocity up to now, although an effect of air turbulence must be involved. The concentration of small ions also has been measured occasionally. With this and mean values of the potential gradient the air earth curent density has been computed. With n+ = 310 cm**-3, n- = 220 cm**-3 the air conductivity would be Lambda = 1,14 * 10**-14 Ohm**-1 m**-1. These values are smaller than values of other authors by a factor of 2 or 3. Therefore the computed air earth current density is also smaller. The discrepancy could not be explained yet.

Caracterización y optimización de un sistema de sonido profesional

El presente proyecto tiene como objeto caracterizar y optimizar un equipo de sonido profesional, entendiendo por “caracterizar” el determinar los atributos particulares de cada uno de los componentes integrados en el sistema, y entendiendo por “optimizar” el hallar la mejor manera de obtener una respuesta plana para todo el rango de frecuencias, libre de distorsión, y en la mayor área posible. El sistema de sonido utilizado pertenece a un grupo musical de directo, por lo que se instala y se configura en cada concierto en función de las características del recinto, sea cerrado o al aire libre. Con independencia de estas particularidades, el sistema completo se divide en dos formaciones, L y R (lado izquierdo y lado derecho del escenario), por lo que cada formación se compone de un procesador digital de la señal, cuatro etapas de amplificación, un sistema line array de ocho unidades, y un conjunto de ocho altavoces de subgraves. Para llevar a cabo el objetivo planteado, se ha dividido el proyecto en las fases que a continuación se describen. En primer lugar, se han realizado, en la cámara anecoica de la EUITT, las medidas que permiten obtener las características de cada uno de los elementos que componen el sistema. Estas medidas se han almacenado en formato ASCII. En segundo lugar, se ha diseñado una interfaz gráfica que permite, utilizando las medidas almacenadas, caracterizar tanto la respuesta individual de cada elemento de la cadena del sistema de sonido como la respuesta combinada de una unidad line array y una unidad de subgraves. La interfaz es interactiva, y tiene además la capacidad de entregar automáticamente los valores de configuración que permiten la optimización del conjunto. Esto es, obtener alineamiento en el rango de frecuencias compartido por ambas unidades. Las medidas realizadas en la cámara anecoica se han utilizado igualmente para modelar el sistema line array al completo y poder realizar simulaciones en campo libre utilizando programas de predicción acústica. Se ha experimentado con los valores de configuración que permiten el alineamiento de los elementos individuales y obtenidos a través de la interfaz desarrollada, para comprobar la validez de los mismos con la formación line array y subgraves al completo. Por otro lado, se han analizado los métodos de optimización de sistemas propuestos por profesionales reconocidos del medio con el objetivo de aplicarlos en un evento real. En la preparación y montaje del evento, se han aplicado los valores de configuración proporcionados por la interfaz, y se ha comprobado la validez de los mismos realizando medidas in situ según los criterios propuestos en los métodos de optimización estudiados. ABSTRACT. This project aims to characterize and optimize a professional sound system. Characterize must be understood as determining the particular attributes of each component integrated in the system; optimize must be understood as finding the best way to get a flat response for all the frequency range, distortion free, in the largest possible area. The sound system under test belongs to a live musical group, so it is setup and configured on each concert depending on the characteristics of the enclosure, whether it’s indoor or outdoor. Apart from these features, the whole system is divided into two clusters, L and R (left and right side of the stage), so that each one is provided with a digital signal processor, four amplification stages, an eight-units line array system, and a set of eight subwoofers . To accomplish the stated objective, the project has been divided into the steps described below. To begin with, measures have been realized in the anechoic chamber of EUITT, which make possible obtaining the characteristics of each of the elements of the system. These measures have been stored in ASCII format. Then, a graphical interface has been designed that allow, using the stored measurements and from graphics, to characterize both the individual response of each element of the string sound system and the combined response of the several elements. The interface is interactive, and also has the ability to automatically deliver the configuration settings that allow the whole optimization. That means to get alignment in the frequency range shared by a line array unit and a subwoofer unit. The measurements made in the anechoic chamber have also been used to model the complete line array system and to perform free-field simulations using acoustical prediction programs. Simulations have been done with the configuration settings that allow the individual elements alignment (provided by the graphical interface developed), in order to check their validity with the full line array and subwoofer systems. On the other hand, analysis about the optimization methods, proposed by renowned professionals of the field, has been made in order to apply them in a real concert. In the setup and assembly of the event, configuration settings provided by the interface have been applied. Their validity has been proved by making measures on-site according to the criteria set in the studied optimization methods.

Phase transitions in number theory: from the birthday problem to Sidon sets

In this work, we show how number theoretical problems can be fruitfully approached with the tools of statistical physics. We focus on g-Sidon sets, which describe sequences of integers whose pairwise sums are different, and propose a random decision problem which addresses the probability of a random set of k integers to be g-Sidon. First, we provide numerical evidence showing that there is a crossover between satisfiable and unsatisfiable phases which converts to an abrupt phase transition in a properly defined thermodynamic limit. Initially assuming independence, we then develop a mean-field theory for the g-Sidon decision problem. We further improve the mean-field theory, which is only qualitatively correct, by incorporating deviations from independence, yielding results in good quantitative agreement with the numerics for both finite systems and in the thermodynamic limit. Connections between the generalized birthday problem in probability theory, the number theory of Sidon sets and the properties of q-Potts models in condensed matter physics are briefly discussed

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.