Information, learning, and risk in financial markets

Cette thèse comprend trois essais qui abordent l'information le processus d'ap-prentissage ainsi que le risque dans les marchés finances. Elle se concentre d'abord sur les implications à l'équilibre de l'hétérogénéité des agents à travers un processus d'apprentissage comprtemental et de mise à jour de l'information. De plus, elle examine les effets du partage des risques dans un reseau entreprise-fournisseur. Le premier chapitre étudie les effets du biais de disponibili sur l'évaluation des actifs. Ce biais décrit le fait que les agents surestiment l'importance de l'information acquise via l'expérience personnelle. L'hétérogénéité restante des différentes perceptions individuelles amène à une volonté d'échanges. Conformé¬ment aux données empiriques, les jeunes agents échangent plus mais en même temps souffrent d'une performance inférieure. Le deuxième chapitre se penche sur l'impact qu'ont les différences de modelisation entre les agents sur leurs percevons individuelles du processus de prix, dans le contexte des projections de modèles. Les agents sujets à un biais de projection pensent être représentatifs et interprètent les opinions des autres agents comme du bruit. Les agents, avec des modèles plus persistants, perçoivent que les prix réagissent de façon excessive lors des périodes de turbulence. Le troisième chapitre analyse l'impact du partage des risques dans la relation entreprise-fournisseur sur la décision optimale de financement de l'entreprise. Il étudie l'impact sur l'optimisation de la structure du capital ainsi que sur le coût du capital. Les résultats indiquent en particulier qu'un fournisseur avec un effet de levier faible est utile pour le financement d'un nouveau projet d'investissement. Pour des projets très rentables et des fournisseurs à faible effet de levier, le coût des capitaux propres de l'entreprise peut diminuer.

Development of support and drive systems for defiberization drum

Diplomityön tarkoituksena oli kuidutusrumpulaitteiston käytön- ja kannatuksen kehittä-minen. Työ rajattiin laajuutensa vuoksi koskemaan tuotesarjan viittä pienintä kokoa. Työn alkuosassa käsitellään kuidutuksen teoriaa ja siihen soveltuvia laitteistoja. Käytön suunnittelun kannalta olennaista käynnistystehon tarvetta on tarkasteltu lähtökohdaisesti fysiikan avulla. Perustietoja teorialle on haettu aiemmista tutkimuksista sekä kirjallisuu-desta. Tarkastelun tuloksena teoriaa on kehitty ja se on saatu vastaamaan todellisuutta aiempaa paremmin. Kannatuksen ja käytön toteuttamisvaihtoja etsittäessä on käytetty systemaattisen koneen-suunnittelun keinoja. Saatuja ideoita on arvioitu teknillis-taloudellisin perustein ja näistä on valittu parhaat vaihtoehdot jatkokehitykseen. Jatkokehitysvaiheessa ratkaisuvaihto-ehtoja on tarkasteltu komponenttitasolla ja näistä on tehty yksityiskohtaiset kustannus-laskelmat. Työn tuloksena on esitetty kannatuksen ja käytön toteutusvaihtoehto, jonka avulla voidaan saavuttaa merkittäviä kustannussäästöjä. Korkea, 30 prosentin kustannussäästö-tavoite saavutettiin.

Cooperation versus competition effects on information sharing and use in group decision making

Information processing in groups has long been seen as a cooperative process. In contrast with this assumption, group members were rarely found to behave cooperatively: They withhold unshared information and stick to initial incorrect decisions. In the present article, we examined how group members' cooperative and competitivemotives impact on group information processing and propose that information sharing and use in groups could be seen as strategic behavior. We reviewed the latest developments in the literature investigating different forms of strategic information processing and their underlying mechanisms. This review suggests that explicit cooperative goals are needed for effective group decision-making.

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Repeated doses of methylone, a new drug of abuse, induce changes in serotonin and dopamine systems in the mouse

Rationale Methylone, a new drug of abuse sold as"bath salts' has similar effects to ecstasy or cocaine. Objective We have investigated changes in dopaminergic and serotoninergic markers, indicative of neuronal damage, induced by methylone in the frontal cortex, hippocampus and striatum of mice and according two different treatment schedules. Methods Methylone was given subcutaneously to male Swiss CD1 mice and at an ambient temperature of 26ºC. Treatment A: three doses of 25 mg/Kg at 3.5 h interval between doses for two consecutive days. Treatment B: four doses of 25 mg/Kg at 3 h interval in one day. Results Repeated methylone administration induced hyperthermia and a significant loss in body weight. Following treatment A, methylone induced transient dopaminergic (frontal cortex) and serotoninergic (hippocampus) impairment. Following treatment B, transient dopaminergic (frontal cortex) and serotonergic (frontal cortex and hippocampus) changes 7 days after treatment were found. We found evidence of astrogliosis in the CA1 and the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus following treatment B. The animals also showed an increase in immobility time in the forced swim test, pointing to a depressive-like behavior. In cultured cortical neurons, methylone (for 24 and 48 h) did not induce a remarkable cytotoxic effect. Conclusions The neural effects of methylone differ depending upon the treatment schedule. Neurochemical changes elicited by methylone are apparent when administered at an elevated ambient temperature, four times per day at 3 h intervals, which is in accordance with its short half-life.

Gestion et communication de l'information en surveillance biologique. Une approche éthique et interdisciplinaire [Biomonitoring information management and communication: an ethical and interdisciplinary perspective]

This study explores biomonitoring communication with workers exposed to risks. Using a qualitative approach, semi-directive interviews were performed. Results show that occupational physicians and workers share some perceptions, but also point out communication gaps. Consequently, informed consent is not guaranteed. This article proposes some recommendations for occupational physicians' practices.

Information Needs and Concerns of Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: What Can We Learn from Participants in a Bilingual Clinical Cohort?

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) patients are confronted with needs and concerns related to their disease. AIM: To explore information expectations of patients included in a national bilingual IBD cohort in Switzerland (SIBDC). METHODS: This is a mixed-methods study, comprising 1) a semi-narrative survey sent to 1506 patients from the SIBDC and 2) two focus groups conducted with 14 patients to explore and assess the relevance of the survey's findings. Data collected within the framework of the SIBDC was used to characterize survey's responders. RESULTS: 728 patients (48%) replied to the survey: 52.5% females, 56% Crohn's disease (CD), 87% secondary/tertiary level educated, 70% full/part-time employed. On average, 47% of patients sought for information, regardless of the disease stage; 27% of them were dissatisfied with information received at the time of first symptoms. During flares, 43% were concerned about drugs and therapies; in remission, 57% had concerns on research and developments; 27% searched for information linked to daily disease management. Information-seeking increased when active disease, for CD with high levels of perceived stress (OR = 2.47; p = 0.003), and for all with higher posttraumatic stress symptoms. The focus groups confirmed a perceived lack of information about general functioning, disease course, treatments and their risks, extra-intestinal symptoms and manifestations. CONCLUSIONS: Information remains insufficient for IBD patients. Lack of information in specific domains can potentially cause stress and hinder detection of symptoms. Better information should be considered as a potentially important component in improving patients' outcomes in IBD.

MONALISA 2.0 and the sea traffic management - a concept creating the need for new maritime information standards and software solutions

Postprint (published version)

A Comparative Study of Desktop, Fishtank, and Cave Systems for the Exploration of Volume Rendered Confocal Data Sets

We present a participant study that compares biological data exploration tasks using volume renderings of laser confocal microscopy data across three environments that vary in level of immersion: a desktop, fishtank, and cave system. For the tasks, data, and visualization approach used in our study, we found that subjects qualitatively preferred and quantitatively performed better in the cave compared with the fishtank and desktop. Subjects performed real-world biological data analysis tasks that emphasized understanding spatial relationships including characterizing the general features in a volume, identifying colocated features, and reporting geometric relationships such as whether clusters of cells were coplanar. After analyzing data in each environment, subjects were asked to choose which environment they wanted to analyze additional data sets in - subjects uniformly selected the cave environment.

Efficient installed base information management and utilization in global after sales service business

This Master´s thesis explores how the a global industrial corporation’s after sales service department should arrange its installed base management practices in order to maintain and utilize the installed base information effectively. Case company has product-related records, such as product’s lifecycle information, service history information and information about product’s performance. Information is collected and organized often case by case, therefore the systematic and effective use of installed base information is difficult also the overview of installed base is missing. The goal of the thesis study was to find out how the case company can improve the installed base maintenance and management practices and improve the installed base information availability and reliability. Installed base information management practices were first examined through the literature. The empirical research was conducted by the interviews and questionnaire survey, targeted to the case company’s service department. The research purpose was to find out the challenges related to case company´s service department’s information management practices. The study also identified the installed base information needs and improvement potential in the availability of information. Based on the empirical research findings, recommendations for improve installed base management practices and information availability were created. Grounding of the recommendations, the case company is suggested the following proposals for action: Service report development, improving the change management process, ensuring the quality of the product documentation in early stages of product life cycle and decision to improve installed base management practices.

Information exchange and disruption risk in multimodal maritime supply chains

Supply chains are becoming increasingly dependent on information ex-change in today’s world, and any disruption can cause severe repercus-sions to the flow of materials in the chain. The speed, accuracy and amount of information are key factors. The aim in this thesis is to address a gap in the research by focusing on information exchange and the risks related to it in a multimodal wood supply chain operating between the Baltic States and Finland. The study involved interviewing people engaged in logistics management in the supply chain in question. The main risk the interviewees identified arose from the sea logistics system, which held a lot of different kinds of information. The threat of breakdown in the Internet connection was also found to hinder the operations significantly. A vulnerability analysis was carried out in order to identify the main actors and channels of infor-mation flow in the supply chain. The analysis revealed that the most important and therefore most vulnerable information-exchange channels were those linking the terminal superintendent, the operative managers and the mill managers. The study gives a holistic picture of the investigated supply chain. Information-exchange-related risks varied greatly. One of the most frequently mentioned was the risk of information inaccuracy, which was usually due to the fact that those in charge of the various functions did not fully understand the consequences for the entire chain.

Element speciation and behaviour in metal-rich Boreal river and estuarine systems using ultrafiltration and chemical modelling

The bioavailability of metals and their potential for environmental pollution depends not simply on total concentrations, but is to a great extent determined by their chemical form. Consequently, knowledge of aqueous metal species is essential in investigating potential metal toxicity and mobility. The overall aim of this thesis is, thus, to determine the species of major and trace elements and the size distribution among the different forms (e.g. ions, molecules and mineral particles) in selected metal-enriched Boreal river and estuarine systems by utilising filtration techniques and geochemical modelling. On the basis of the spatial physicochemical patterns found, the fractionation and complexation processes of elements (mainly related to input of humic matter and pH-change) were examined. Dissolved (<1 kDa), colloidal (1 kDa-0.45 μm) and particulate (>0.45 μm) size fractions of sulfate, organic carbon (OC) and 44 metals/metalloids were investigated in the extremely acidic Vörå River system and its estuary in W Finland, and in four river systems in SW Finland (Sirppujoki, Laajoki, Mynäjoki and Paimionjoki), largely affected by soil erosion and acid sulfate (AS) soils. In addition, geochemical modelling was used to predict the formation of free ions and complexes in these investigated waters. One of the most important findings of this study is that the very large amounts of metals known to be released from AS soils (including Al, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Si, U and the lanthanoids) occur and can prevail mainly in toxic forms throughout acidic river systems; as free ions and/or sulfate-complexes. This has serious effects on the biota and especially dissolved Al is expected to have acute effects on fish and other organisms, but also other potentially toxic dissolved elements (e.g. Cd, Cu, Mn and Ni) can have fatal effects on the biota in these environments. In upstream areas that are generally relatively forested (higher pH and contents of OC) fewer bioavailable elements (including Al, Cu, Ni and U) may be found due to complexation with the more abundantly occurring colloidal OC. In the rivers in SW Finland total metal concentrations were relatively high, but most of the elements occurred largely in a colloidal or particulate form and even elements expected to be very soluble (Ca, K, Mg, Na and Sr) occurred to a large extent in colloidal form. According to geochemical modelling, these patterns may only to a limited extent be explained by in-stream metal complexation/adsorption. Instead there were strong indications that the high metal concentrations and dominant solid fractions were largely caused by erosion of metal bearing phyllosilicates. A strong influence of AS soils, known to exist in the catchment, could be clearly distinguished in the Sirppujoki River as it had very high concentrations of a metal sequence typical of AS soils in a dissolved form (Ba, Br, Ca, Cd, Co, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Rb and Sr). In the Paimionjoki River, metal concentrations (including Ba, Cs, Fe, Hf, Pb, Rb, Si, Th, Ti, Tl and V; not typical of AS soils in the area) were high, but it was found that the main cause of this was erosion of metal bearing phyllosilicates and thus these metals occurred dominantly in less toxic colloidal and particulate fractions. In the two nearby rivers (Laajoki and Mynäjoki) there was influence of AS soils, but it was largely masked by eroded phyllosilicates. Consequently, rivers draining clay plains sensitive to erosion, like those in SW Finland, have generally high background metal concentrations due to erosion. Thus, relying on only semi-dissolved (<0.45 μm) concentrations obtained in routine monitoring, or geochemical modelling based on such data, can lead to a great overestimation of the water toxicity in this environment. The potentially toxic elements that are of concern in AS soil areas will ultimately be precipitated in the recipient estuary or sea, where the acidic metalrich river water will gradually be diluted/neutralised with brackish seawater. Along such a rising pH gradient Al, Cu and U will precipitate first together with organic matter closest to the river mouth. Manganese is relatively persistent in solution and, thus, precipitates further down the estuary as Mn oxides together with elements such as Ba, Cd, Co, Cu and Ni. Iron oxides, on the contrary, are not important scavengers of metals in the estuary, they are predicted to be associated only with As and PO4.

Reframing the relationship between service design and operations: a service engineering approach

The significance of services as business and human activities has increased dramatically throughout the world in the last three decades. Becoming a more and more competitive and efficient service provider while still being able to provide unique value opportunities for customers requires new knowledge and ideas. Part of this knowledge is created and utilized in daily activities in every service organization, but not all of it, and therefore an emerging phenomenon in the service context is information awareness. Terms like big data and Internet of things are not only modern buzz-words but they are also describing urgent requirements for a new type of competences and solutions. When the amount of information increases and the systems processing information become more efficient and intelligent, it is the human understanding and objectives that may get separated from the automated processes and technological innovations. This is an important challenge and the core driver for this dissertation: What kind of information is created, possessed and utilized in the service context, and even more importantly, what information exists but is not acknowledged or used? In this dissertation the focus is on the relationship between service design and service operations. Reframing this relationship refers to viewing the service system from the architectural perspective. The selected perspective allows analysing the relationship between design activities and operational activities as an information system while maintaining the tight connection to existing service research contributions and approaches. This type of an innovative approach is supported by research methodology that relies on design science theory. The methodological process supports the construction of a new design artifact based on existing theoretical knowledge, creation of new innovations and testing the design artifact components in real service contexts. The relationship between design and operations is analysed in the health care and social care service systems. The existing contributions in service research tend to abstract services and service systems as value creation, working or interactive systems. This dissertation adds an important information processing system perspective to the research. The main contribution focuses on the following argument: Only part of the service information system is automated and computerized, whereas a significant part of information processing is embedded in human activities, communication and ad-hoc reactions. The results indicate that the relationship between service design and service operations is more complex and dynamic than the existing scientific and managerial models tend to view it. Both activities create, utilize, mix and share information, making service information management a necessary but relatively unknown managerial task. On the architectural level, service system -specific elements seem to disappear, but access to more general information elements and processes can be found. While this dissertation focuses on conceptual-level design artifact construction, the results provide also very practical implications for service providers. Personal, visual and hidden activities of service, and more importantly all changes that take place in any service system have also an information dimension. Making this information dimension visual and prioritizing the processed information based on service dimensions is likely to provide new opportunities to increase activities and provide a new type of service potential for customers.