846 resultados para Electricity Demand, Causality, Cointegration Analysis
Resumo:
Cooperatives have a long historical experience in the Spanish economy and have demonstrated their ability to compete against traditional firms in the market. To maintain this capability, while taking advantage of the competitive advantages associated with their idiosyncrasies as social economy enterprises, they should take into consideration that the economy is increasingly globalized and increasingly knowledge-based, especially with regards to technological content. As a consequence, the innovative capacity appears to be a key aspect in order to be able to challenge competitors. This article characterizes the innovative behavior of cooperatives in the region of Castile and Leon and analyses the internal and external factors affecting their innovative performance, based on data from a survey of 581 cooperatives. The results of the empirical analysis, which is performed by multivariate binary logistic regression on various types of innovation, lead us to identify the size of the organizations, the existence of planning, the R & D activities and the human capital as the main determining factors.
Resumo:
There is an increasing demand to develop biosensor monitoring devices capable of biomarker profiling for predicting animal adulteration and detecting multiple chemical contaminants or toxins in food produce. Surface plasmon resonance (SPR) biosensors are label free detection systems that monitor the binding of specific biomolecular recognition elements with binding partners. Essential to this technology are the production of biochips where a selected binding partner, antibody, biomarker protein or low molecular weight contaminant, is immobilised. A micro-fluidic immobilisation device allowing the covalent attachment of up to 16 binding partners in a linear array on a single surface has been developed for compatibility with a prototype multiplex SPR analyser.
The immobilisation unit and multiplex SPR analyser were respectively evaluated in their ability to be fit-for-purpose for binding partner attachment and detection of high and low molecular weight molecules. The multiplexing capability of the dual technology was assessed using phycotoxin concentration analysis as a model system. The parent compounds of four toxin groups were immobilised within a single chip format and calibration curves were achieved. The chip design and SPR technology allowed the compartmentalisation of the binding interactions for each toxin group offering the added benefit of being able to distinguish between toxin families and perform concentration analysis. This model is particularly contemporary with the current drive to replace biological methods for phycotoxin screening.
Resumo:
Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The European Union has set a target for 10% renewable energy in transport by 2020, which will be met using both biofuels and electric vehicles. In the case of biofuels, for the purposes of meeting the target, the biofuel must achieve greenhouse gas savings of 35% relative to the fossil fuel replaced. For biofuels, greenhouse gas savings can be calculated using life cycle analysis, or the European Union default values. In contrast, all electricity used in transport is considered to be the same, regardless of the source or the type of electric vehicle. However, the choice of the electric vehicle and electricity source will have a major impact on the greenhouse gas savings. This paper examines different electric-vehicle scenarios in terms of greenhouse gas savings, using a well-to-wheel life cycle analysis.
Resumo:
Dwindling fossil fuel resources and pressures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will result in a more diverse range of generation portfolios for future electricity systems. Irrespective of the portfolio mix the overarching requirement for all electricity suppliers and system operators is that supply instantaneously meets demand and that robust operating standards are maintained to ensure a consistent supply of high quality electricity to end-users. Therefore all electricity market participants will ultimately need to use a variety of tools to balance the power system. Thus the role of demand side management (DSM) with energy storage will be paramount to integrate future diverse generation portfolios. Electric water heating (EWH) has been studied previously, particularly at the domestic level to provide load control, peak shave and to benefit end-users financially with lower bills, particularly in vertically integrated monopolies. In this paper, a continuous Direct Load Control (DLC) EWH algorithm is applied in a liberalized market environment using actual historical electricity system and market data to examine the potential energy savings, cost reductions and electricity system operational improvements.
Resumo:
Regulatory authorities, the food industry and the consumer demand reliable determination of chemical contaminants present in foods. A relatively new analytical technique that addresses this need is an immunobiosensor based on surface plasmon resonance (SPR) measurements. Although a range of tests have been developed to measure residues in milk, meat, animal bile and honey, a considerable problem has been encountered with both serum and plasma samples. The high degree of non-specific binding of some sample components can lead to loss of assay robustness, increased rates of false positives and general loss of assay sensitivity. In this paper we describe a straightforward precipitation technique to remove interfering substances from serum samples to be analysed for veterinary anthelmintics by SPR. This technique enabled development of an assay to detect a wide range of benzimidazole residues in serum samples by immunobiosensor. The limit of quantification was below 5 ng/ml and coefficients of variation were about 2%.
Resumo:
In responding to the demand for change and improvement, local government has applied a plethora of operations management-based methods, tools and techniques. This article explores how these methods, specifically in the form of performance management models, are used to improve alignment between central government policy and local government practice, an area which has thus far been neglected in the literature. Using multiple case studies from Environmental Waste Management Services, this research reports that models derived in the private sector are often directly ‘implanted’ into the public sector. This has challenged the efficacy of all performance management models. However, those organisations which used models most effectively did so by embedding (contextualisation) and extending (reconceptualisation) them beyond their original scope. Moreover, success with these models created a cumulative effect whereby other operations management approaches were probed, adapted and used.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND:
Many studies have suggested that caregiving has a detrimental impact on health. However, these conclusions are challenged by research which finds evidence of a comparative survivorship advantage, as well as work which controls for group differences in the demand for care.
METHODS:
We use a large record linkage study of England and Wales to investigate the mortality risks of carers identified in the 2001 Census. The analysis focuses on individuals aged 35-74 living with others in private households and a distinction is made between those providing 1-19 and 20 or more hours of care per week. Logit models identify differences in carers' health at baseline and postcensal survival is analysed using Cox proportional hazards models.
RESULTS:
12.2% of study members reported providing 1-19 h of care and 5.4% reported providing 20 or more hours. While carers were significantly more likely to report poorer health at baseline, survival analyses suggested that they were at a significantly lower risk of dying. This comparative advantage also held when the analyses were restricted to individuals living with at least one person with poor health.
CONCLUSIONS:
The comparative mortality advantage revealed in this analysis challenges common characterisations of carers' health and draws attention to important differences in the way carers are defined in existing analyses. The survival results are consistent with work using similar data for Northern Ireland. However, the study also affords more uniform conclusions about carers' baseline health and this provides grounds for questioning existing hypotheses about the reasons for this advantage.
Resumo:
Although pumped hydro storage is seen as a strategic key asset by grid operators, financing it is complicated in new liberalised markets. It could be argued that the optimum generation portfolio is now determined by the economic viability of generators based on a short to medium term return on investment. This has meant that capital intensive projects such as pumped hydro storage are less attractive for wholesale electricity companies because the payback periods are too long. In tandem a significant amount of wind power has entered the generation mix, which has resulted in operating and planning integration issues due to wind's inherent uncertain, varying spatial and temporal nature. These integration issues can be overcome using fast acting gas peaking plant or energy storage. Most analysis of wind power integration using storage to date has used stochastic optimisation for power system balancing or arbitrage modelling to examine techno-economic viability. In this research a deterministic dynamic programming long term generation expansion model is employed to optimise the generation mix, total system costs and total carbon dioxide emissions, and unlike other studies calculates reserve to firm wind power. The key finding of this study is that the incentive to build capital-intensive pumped hydro storage to firm wind power is limited unless exogenous market costs come very strongly into play. Furthermore it was demonstrated that reserve increases with increasing wind power showing the importance of ancillary services in future power systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.
Resumo:
EU targets require nearly zero energy buildings (NZEB) by 2020. However few monitored examples exist of how NZEB has been achieved in practise in individual residential buildings. This paper provides an example of how a low-energy building (built in 2006), has achieved nearly zero energy heating through the addition of a solar domestic hot water and space heating system (“combi system”) with a Seasonal Thermal Energy Store (STES). The paper also presents a cumulative life cycle energy and cumulative life cycle carbon analysis for the installation based on the recorded DHW and space heating demand in addition to energy payback periods and net energy ratios. In addition, the carbon and energy analysis is carried out for four other heating system scenarios including hybrid solar thermal/PV systems in order to obtain the optimal system from a carbon efficiency perspective.
Resumo:
Electric vehicles (EV) are proposed as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in transport and support increased wind power penetration across modern power systems. Optimal benefits can only be achieved, if EVs are deployed effectively, so that the exhaust emissions are not substituted by additional emissions in the electricity sector, which can be implemented using Smart Grid controls. This research presents the results of an EV roll-out in the all island grid (AIG) in Ireland using the long term generation expansion planning model called the Wien Automatic System Planning IV (WASP-IV) tool to measure carbon dioxide emissions and changes in total energy. The model incorporates all generators and operational requirements while meeting environmental emissions, fuel availability and generator operational and maintenance constraints to optimize economic dispatch and unit commitment power dispatch. In the study three distinct scenarios are investigated base case, peak and off-peak charging to simulate the impacts of EV’s in the AIG up to 2025.
Resumo:
Grid operators and electricity retailers in Ireland manage peak demand, power system balancing and grid congestion by offering relevant incentives to consumers to reduce or shift their load. The need for active consumers in the home using smart appliances has never been greater, due to increased variable renewable generation and grid constraints. In this paper an aggregated model of a single compressor fridge-freezer population is developed. A price control strategy is examined to quantify and value demand response savings during a representative winter and summer week for Ireland in 2020. The results show an average reduction in fridge-freezer operating cost of 8.2% during winter and significantly lower during summer in Ireland. A peak reduction of at least 68% of the average winter refrigeration load is achieved consistently during the week analysed using a staggering control mode. An analysis of the current ancillary service payments confirms that these are insufficient to ensure widespread uptake by the small consumer, and new mechanisms need to be developed to make becoming an active consumer attractive. Demand response is proposed as a new ancillary service called ramping capability, as the need for this service will increase with more renewable energy penetration on the power system.
Resumo:
Gas fired generation currently plays an integral support role ensuring security of supply in power systems with high wind power penetrations due to its technical and economic attributes. However, the increase in variable wind power has affected the gas generation output profile and is pushing the boundaries of the design and operating envelope of gas infrastructure. This paper investigates the mutual dependence and interaction between electricity generation and gas systems through the first comprehensive joined-up, multi-vector energy system analysis for Ireland. Key findings reveal the high vulnerability of the Irish power system to outages on the Irish gas system. It has been shown that the economic operation of the power system can be severely impacted by gas infrastructure outages, resulting in an average system marginal price of up to €167/MWh from €67/MWh in the base case. It has also been shown that gas infrastructure outages pose problems for the location of power system reserve provision, with a 150% increase in provision across a power system transmission bottleneck. Wind forecast error was shown to be a significant cause for concern, resulting in large swings in gas demand requiring key gas infrastructure to operate at close to 100% capacity. These findings are thought to increase in prominence as the installation of wind capacity increases towards 2020, placing further stress on both power and gas systems to maintain security of supply.
Resumo:
The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.