A method for decision making with the OWA operator

A new method for decision making that uses the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the information is presented. It is used a concept that it is known in the literature as the index of maximum and minimum level (IMAM). This index is based on distance measures and other techniques that are useful for decision making. By using the OWA operator in the IMAM, we form a new aggregation operator that we call the ordered weighted averaging index of maximum and minimum level (OWAIMAM) operator. The main advantage is that it provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators between the minimum and the maximum and a wide range of special cases. Then, the decision maker may take decisions according to his degree of optimism and considering ideals in the decision process. A further extension of this approach is presented by using hybrid averages and Choquet integrals. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem regarding the selection of strategies.

Speed-cohesion trade-offs in collective decision making in ants and the concept of precision in animal behaviour

In decision making, speed-accuracy trade-offs are well known and often inevitable because accuracy depends on being well informed and gathering information takes time. However, trade-offs between speed and cohesion, that is the degree to which a group remains together as a single entity, as a result of their decision making, have been comparatively neglected. We combine theory and experimentation to show that in decision-making systems, speed-cohesion trade-offs are a natural complement to speed-accuracy trade-offs and are therefore of general importance. We then analyse the decision performance of 32 rock ant, Temnothorax albipennis, colonies in experiments in which accuracy of collective decision making was held constant, but time urgency varied. These experiments reveal for the first time an adaptive speed-cohesion trade-off in collective decision making and how this is achieved. In accord with different time constraints, colonies can decide quickly, at the cost of social unity, or they can decide slowly with much greater cohesion. We discuss the similarity between cohesion and the term precision as used in statistics and engineering. This emphasizes the generality of speed versus cohesion/precision trade-offs in decision making and decision implementation in other fields within animal behaviour such as sexually selected motor displays and even certain aspects of birdsong. We also suggest that speed versus precision trade-offs may occur when individuals within a group need to synchronize their activity, and in collective navigation, cooperative hunting and in certain escape behaviours.

Reaction-diffusion lattice gas: Theory and computer results

We report on the study of nonequilibrium ordering in the reaction-diffusion lattice gas. It is a kinetic model that relaxes towards steady states under the simultaneous competition of a thermally activated creation-annihilation $(reaction$) process at temperature T, and a diffusion process driven by a heat bath at temperature T?T. The phase diagram as one varies T and T, the system dimension d, the relative priori probabilities for the two processes, and their dynamical rates is investigated. We compare mean-field theory, new Monte Carlo data, and known exact results for some limiting cases. In particular, no evidence of Landau critical behavior is found numerically when d=2 for Metropolis rates but Onsager critical points and a variety of first-order phase transitions.

Statistical reference criteria for adaptive signal processing in digital communications

A general criterion for the design of adaptive systemsin digital communications called the statistical reference criterionis proposed. The criterion is based on imposition of the probabilitydensity function of the signal of interest at the outputof the adaptive system, with its application to the scenario ofhighly powerful interferers being the main focus of this paper.The knowledge of the pdf of the wanted signal is used as adiscriminator between signals so that interferers with differingdistributions are rejected by the algorithm. Its performance isstudied over a range of scenarios. Equations for gradient-basedcoefficient updates are derived, and the relationship with otherexisting algorithms like the minimum variance and the Wienercriterion are examined.

Statistical variation of weld profiles and their expected influence on fatigue strength

The general objective of this study was to conduct astatistical analysis on the variation of the weld profiles and their influence on the fatigue strength of the joint. Weld quality with respect to its fatigue strength is of importance which is the main concept behind this thesis. The intention of this study was to establish the influence of weld geometric parameters on the weld quality and fatigue strength. The effect of local geometrical variations of non-load carrying cruciform fillet welded joint under tensile loading wasstudied in this thesis work. Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics was used to calculate fatigue strength of the cruciform fillet welded joints in as-welded condition and under cyclic tensile loading, for a range of weld geometries. With extreme value statistical analysis and LEFM, an attempt was made to relate the variation of the cruciform weld profiles such as weld angle and weld toe radius to respective FAT classes.

Frames: a maximum entropy statistical estimate of the inverse problem

A maximum entropy statistical treatment of an inverse problem concerning frame theory is presented. The problem arises from the fact that a frame is an overcomplete set of vectors that defines a mapping with no unique inverse. Although any vector in the concomitant space can be expressed as a linear combination of frame elements, the coefficients of the expansion are not unique. Frame theory guarantees the existence of a set of coefficients which is “optimal” in a minimum norm sense. We show here that these coefficients are also “optimal” from a maximum entropy viewpoint.

Tilaus- toimitusprosessin kehittäminen tilausohjautuvassa tuotannossa

Diplomityön tavoitteena on tilaus- toimitusprosessin kehittäminen tilausohjautuvassa tuotannossa. Prosessin nykytilan tarkemman analysoinnin avulla on tarkoitus lisätä prosessissa työskentelevien henkilöiden käsitystä siitä, miten prosessi toimii tällä hetkellä sekä minkälaisesta liiketoiminnasta onkaan kyse. Tämä työ on osa laajempaa kohdeyrityksessä meneillään olevaa kehitysprojektia, jonka päätöksentekoa on tarkoitus tukea tässä työssä tehtyjen analyysien avulla.Työ on jakautunut kolmeen osaan; teoria-, analyysi- sekä synteesiosaan. Teoriaosassa käsitellään prosesseja yleisesti, niiden kehittämistä sekä mittaamista. Prosessien kehittämismenetelmistä esitellään kapeikkoajattelu sekä Lean-tuotanto. Analyysiosassa käsitellään tilastollistenanalyysien perusteella prosessin nykytilaa ja liiketoiminnan luonnetta. Pilottitoimitus sekä laajemman kehitysprojektin esittely kuuluvat myös analyysiosan sisältöön. Analyysiosan perusteella tuotteiden läpimenoaikaa voidaan lyhentää vähentämällä eri vaiheiden välisiä odotusaikoja. Myös materiaalien saatavuus tulisi varmistaa kehittämällä tavaralogistiikkaa. Synteesiosassa on listattu käytännönläheisiä kehitysehdotuksia prosessin suorituskyvyn parantamiseksi. Pohjana ehdotuksille on analyysiosassa ilmenneet ongelmat. Laajempana kehityskohteena esitellään kolmivaiheinen muutosprosessi, jonka avulla voidaan tehostaa tavaralogistiikkaa ulkoistamisen avulla.

Bayesian classification of forest ecological type from satellite data

The main objective of this study was todo a statistical analysis of ecological type from optical satellite data, using Tipping's sparse Bayesian algorithm. This thesis uses "the Relevence Vector Machine" algorithm in ecological classification betweenforestland and wetland. Further this bi-classification technique was used to do classification of many other different species of trees and produces hierarchical classification of entire subclasses given as a target class. Also, we carried out an attempt to use airborne image of same forest area. Combining it with image analysis, using different image processing operation, we tried to extract good features and later used them to perform classification of forestland and wetland.

Consumers' use of nutrition-related endorsement symbol to help their purchase decisions: An extension of the theory of planned behaviour

Tutkimuksessa haluttiin selvittää, mitkä tekijät vaikuttavat ravintoon liittyvän suositusmerkin käyttöön kuluttajan ostopäätöksen apuna. Tutkimuksen viitekehyksen pohjaksi valittiin suunnitellun toiminnan teoria, joka on osoittautunut selittämään hyvin useaa ravintoon- ja terveyteen liittyvää käyttäytymistä. Tutkimustoteutettiin kyselytutkimuksella, jonka aineisto kerättiin Internetissä julkaistulla kyselylomakkeella. Tulokset osoittivat, että kuluttajan aikomus käyttää suositusmerkkiä oli mallin vahvin selittäjä. Lisäksi merkin käyttöä selitti kuluttajan kokema sisäinen kontrolli, johon ulkoinen kontrolli vahvasti vaikuttaa. Ostopäätössitoutumisen havaittiin vaikuttavan aikomuksen ja todellisen merkin käytön väliseen yhteyteen. Yleisesti tulokset osoittivat, että kuluttajilla on aikomusta käyttää merkkiä, mutta todellinen käyttö on huomattavasti vähäisempää.

Field Sales Management Control: Towards a Multi-Level Theory

The purpose of this dissertation is to increase the understanding and knowledge of field sales management control systems (i.e. sales managers monitoring, directing, evaluating and rewarding activities) and their potential consequences on salespeople. This topic is important because research conducted in the past has indicated that the choice of control system type can on the other hand have desirable consequences, such as high levels of motivation and performance, and on the other hand leadto harmful unintended consequences, such as opportunistic or unethical behaviors. Despite the fact that marketing and sales management control systems have been under rigorous research for over two decades, it still is at a very early stage of development, and several inconsistencies can be found in the research results. This dissertation argues that these inconsistencies are mainly derived from misspecification of the level of analysis in the past research. These different levels of analysis (i.e. strategic, tactical, and operational levels) involve very different decision-making situations regarding the control and motivation of sales force, which should be taken into consideration when conceptualizing the control. Moreover, the study of salesperson consequences of a field sales management control system is actually a cross-level phenomenon, which means that at least two levels of analysis are simultaneously involved. The results of this dissertation confirm the need to re-conceptualize the field sales management control system concept. It provides empirical evidence for the assertion that control should be conceptualized with more details atthe tactical/operational level of analysis than at the strategic levelof analysis. Moreover, the results show that some controls are more efficiently communicated to field salespeople than others. It is proposed that this difference is due to different purposes of control; some controls aredesigned for influencing salespersons' behavior (aim at motivating) whereas some controls are designed to aid decision-making (aim at providing information). According to the empirical results of this dissertation, the both types of controls have an impact to the sales force, but this impactis not as strong as expected. The results obtained in this dissertation shed some light to the nature of field sales management control systems, and their consequences on salespeopl

Technology selection and group decision support systems: Case studies on supporting strategic technology selection processes

The objective of the dissertation is to increase understanding and knowledge in the field where group decision support system (GDSS) and technology selection research overlap in the strategic sense. The purpose is to develop pragmatic, unique and competent management practices and processes for strategic technology assessment and selection from the whole company's point of view. The combination of the GDSS and technology selection is approached from the points of view of the core competence concept, the lead user -method, and different technology types. In this research the aim is to find out how the GDSS contributes to the technology selection process, what aspects should be considered when selecting technologies to be developed or acquired, and what advantages and restrictions the GDSS has in the selection processes. These research objectives are discussed on the basis of experiences and findings in real life selection meetings. The research has been mainly carried outwith constructive, case study research methods. The study contributes novel ideas to the present knowledge and prior literature on the GDSS and technology selection arena. Academic and pragmatic research has been conducted in four areas: 1) the potential benefits of the group support system with the lead user -method,where the need assessment process is positioned as information gathering for the selection of wireless technology development projects; 2) integrated technology selection and core competencies management processes both in theory and in practice; 3) potential benefits of the group decision support system in the technology selection processes of different technology types; and 4) linkages between technology selection and R&D project selection in innovative product development networks. New type of knowledge and understanding has been created on the practical utilization of the GDSS in technology selection decisions. The study demonstrates that technology selection requires close cooperation between differentdepartments, functions, and strategic business units in order to gather the best knowledge for the decision making. The GDSS is proved to be an effective way to promote communication and co-operation between the selectors. The constructs developed in this study have been tested in many industry fields, for example in information and communication, forest, telecommunication, metal, software, and miscellaneous industries, as well as in non-profit organizations. The pragmatic results in these organizations are some of the most relevant proofs that confirm the scientific contribution of the study, according to the principles of the constructive research approach.

Agency problems with non-smooth decision profiles: the case of monopoly under product quality

A method for dealing with monotonicity constraints in optimal control problems is used to generalize some results in the context of monopoly theory, also extending the generalization to a large family of principal-agent programs. Our main conclusion is that many results on diverse economic topics, achieved under assumptions of continuity and piecewise differentiability in connection with the endogenous variables of the problem, still remain valid after replacing such assumptions by two minimal requirements.

Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

Friedman's Excess energy and the McMillan-Mayer theory of solutions:Thermodynamics

In his version of the theory of multicomponent systems, Friedman used the analogy which exists between the virial expansion for the osmotic pressure obtained from the McMillan-Mayer (MM) theory of solutions in the grand canonical ensemble and the virial expansion for the pressure of a real gas. For the calculation of the thermodynamic properties of the solution, Friedman proposed a definition for the"excess free energy" that is a reminder of the ancient idea for the"osmotic work". However, the precise meaning to be attached to his free energy is, within other reasons, not well defined because in osmotic equilibrium the solution is not a closed system and for a given process the total amount of solvent in the solution varies. In this paper, an analysis based on thermodynamics is presented in order to obtain the exact and precise definition for Friedman"s excess free energy and its use in the comparison with the experimental data.

L'exploitation des peintures en spray en criminalistique: mise en place d'une procédure de gestion et de comparaison des spectres infrarouges à l'aide des statistiques multivariées

La spectroscopie infrarouge (FTIR) est une technique de choix dans l'analyse des peintures en spray (traces ou bonbonnes de référence), grâce à son fort pouvoir discriminant, sa sensibilité, et ses nombreuses possibilités d'échantillonnage. La comparaison des spectres obtenus est aujourd'hui principalement faite visuellement, mais cette procédure présente des limitations telles que la subjectivité de la prise de décision car celle-ci dépend de l'expérience et de la formation suivie par l'expert. De ce fait, de faibles différences d'intensités relatives entre deux pics peuvent être perçues différemment par des experts, même au sein d'un même laboratoire. Lorsqu'il s'agit de justifier ces différences, certains les expliqueront par la méthode analytique utilisée, alors que d'autres estimeront plutôt qu'il s'agit d'une variabilité intrinsèque à la peinture et/ou à son vécu (par exemple homogénéité, sprayage, ou dégradation). Ce travail propose d'étudier statistiquement les différentes sources de variabilité observables dans les spectres infrarouges, de les identifier, de les comprendre et tenter de les minimiser. Le deuxième objectif principal est de proposer une procédure de comparaison des spectres qui soit davantage transparente et permette d'obtenir des réponses reproductibles indépendamment des experts interrogés. La première partie du travail traite de l'optimisation de la mesure infrarouge et des principaux paramètres analytiques. Les conditions nécessaires afin d'obtenir des spectres reproductibles et minimisant la variation au sein d'un même échantillon (intra-variabilité) sont présentées. Par la suite une procédure de correction des spectres est proposée au moyen de prétraitements et de sélections de variables, afin de minimiser les erreurs systématiques et aléatoires restantes, et de maximiser l'information chimique pertinente. La seconde partie présente une étude de marché effectuée sur 74 bonbonnes de peintures en spray représentatives du marché suisse. Les capacités de discrimination de la méthode FTIR au niveau de la marque et du modèle sont évaluées au moyen d'une procédure visuelle, et comparées à diverses procédures statistiques. Les limites inférieures de discrimination sont testées sur des peintures de marques et modèles identiques mais provenant de différents lots de production. Les résultats ont montré que la composition en pigments était particulièrement discriminante, à cause des étapes de corrections et d'ajustement de la couleur subies lors de la production. Les particularités associées aux peintures en spray présentes sous forme de traces (graffitis, gouttelettes) ont également été testées. Trois éléments sont mis en évidence et leur influence sur le spectre infrarouge résultant testée : 1) le temps minimum de secouage nécessaire afin d'obtenir une homogénéité suffisante de la peinture et, en conséquence, de la surface peinte, 2) la dégradation initiée par le rayonnement ultra- violet en extérieur, et 3) la contamination provenant du support lors du prélèvement. Finalement une étude de population a été réalisée sur 35 graffitis de la région lausannoise et les résultats comparés à l'étude de marché des bonbonnes en spray. La dernière partie de ce travail s'est concentrée sur l'étape de prise de décision lors de la comparaison de spectres deux-à-deux, en essayant premièrement de comprendre la pratique actuelle au sein des laboratoires au moyen d'un questionnaire, puis de proposer une méthode statistique de comparaison permettant d'améliorer l'objectivité et la transparence lors de la prise de décision. Une méthode de comparaison basée sur la corrélation entre les spectres est proposée, et ensuite combinée à une évaluation Bayesienne de l'élément de preuve au niveau de la source et au niveau de l'activité. Finalement des exemples pratiques sont présentés et la méthodologie est discutée afin de définir le rôle précis de l'expert et des statistiques dans la procédure globale d'analyse des peintures. -- Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) is a technique of choice for analyzing spray paint speciments (i.e. traces) and reference samples (i.e. cans seized from suspects) due to its high discriminating power, sensitivity and sampling possibilities. The comparison of the spectra is currently carried out visually, but this procedure has limitations such as the subjectivity in the decision due to its dependency on the experience and training of the expert. This implies that small differences in the relative intensity of two peaks can be perceived differently by experts, even between analysts working in the same laboratory. When it comes to justifying these differences, some will explain them by the analytical technique, while others will estimate that the observed differences are mostly due to an intrinsic variability from the paint sample and/or its acquired characteristics (for example homogeneity, spraying, or degradation). This work proposes to statistically study the different sources of variability observed in infrared spectra, to identify them, understand them and try to minimize them. The second goal is to propose a procedure for spectra comparison that is more transparent, and allows obtaining reproducible answers being independent from the expert. The first part of the manuscript focuses on the optimization of infrared measurement and on the main analytical parameters. The necessary conditions to obtain reproducible spectra with a minimized variation within a sample (intra-variability) are presented. Following that a procedure of spectral correction is then proposed using pretreatments and variable selection methods, in order to minimize systematic and random errors, and increase simultaneously relevant chemical information. The second part presents a market study of 74 spray paints representative of the Swiss market. The discrimination capabilities of FTIR at the brand and model level are evaluated by means of visual and statistical procedures. The inferior limits of discrimination are tested on paints coming from the same brand and model, but from different production batches. The results showed that the pigment composition was particularly discriminatory, because of the corrections and adjustments made to the paint color during its manufacturing process. The features associated with spray paint traces (graffitis, droplets) were also tested. Three elements were identified and their influence on the resulting infrared spectra were tested: 1) the minimum shaking time necessary to obtain a sufficient homogeneity of the paint and subsequently of the painted surface, 2) the degradation initiated by ultraviolet radiation in an exterior environment, and 3) the contamination from the support when paint is recovered. Finally a population study was performed on 35 graffitis coming from the city of Lausanne and surroundings areas, and the results were compared to the previous market study of spray cans. The last part concentrated on the decision process during the pairwise comparison of spectra. First, an understanding of the actual practice among laboratories was initiated by submitting a questionnaire. Then, a proposition for a statistical method of comparison was advanced to improve the objectivity and transparency during the decision process. A method of comparison based on the correlation between spectra is proposed, followed by the integration into a Bayesian framework at both source and activity levels. Finally, some case examples are presented and the recommended methodology is discussed in order to define the role of the expert as well as the contribution of the tested statistical approach within a global analytical sequence for paint examinations.