AITPM national newsletter December 2008 president's report

It’s fast approaching the end of the year and the festive season, and I have a few things on my mind. First, how I’ll fit in all of my holiday plans and projects within my period of leave, which always seems to pass oh so quickly! But more important are the two issues of global financial uncertainty and safe travel. Judging by what is in the media, it appears to be proving difficult for any self respecting financial industry specialist to define and grapple with the so-called current economic crisis, let alone those of us who have not been formally and extensively schooled in the sciences of finance and economics. Perhaps the latter is even more of a “black art” than the discipline of transport planning. The situation has affected all of us with our superannuation and/or share portfolios; however, judging by the still-crowded shopping centres in many areas, the downstream general economic impacts appear to be less serious in Australia than in other developed countries, even with the significant market fluctuations taking place. There are many important decisions facing Australian governments, from the top down, on how they manage their budgets and spending. Infrastructure spending is in competition with other necessities such as the public health system and education. But it appears that infrastructure is an avenue of public spending that, over all time windows, may be able to significantly bolster local economies and that of the nation as a whole. This, however, is against the spectre of deficits. I would suggest that now, more than ever, we as transport and other professionals within the system, should use our knowledge and experience to take a key role in helping government and the private sector make sound decisions on infrastructure planning, delivery and management.

Adam Smith's Dinner

The Future of Financial Regulation is an edited collection of papers presented at a major conference at the University of Glasgow in Spring 2009. It draws together a variety of different perspectives on the international financial crisis which began in August 2007 and later turned into a more widespread economic crisis following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the Autumn of 2008. Spring 2009 was in many respects the nadir since valuations in financial markets had reached their low point and crisis management rather than regulatory reform was the main focus of attention. The conference and book were deliberately framed as an attempt to re-focus attention from the former to the latter. The first part of the book focuses on the context of the crisis, discussing the general characteristics of financial crises and the specific influences that were at work during this time. The second part focuses more specifically on regulatory techniques and practices implicated in the crisis, noting in particular an over-reliance on the capacity of regulators and financial institutions to manage risk and on the capacity of markets to self-correct. The third part focuses on the role of governance and ethics in the crisis and in particular the need for a common ethical framework to underpin governance practices and to provide greater clarity in the design of accountability mechanisms. The final part focuses on the trajectory of regulatory reform, noting the considerable potential for change as a result of the role of the state in the rescue and recuperation of the financial system and stressing the need for fundamental re-appraisal of business and regulatory models. This informative book will be of interest to financial regulators and theorists, commercial and financial law practitioners, and academics involved in the law and economics of regulation.

Evaluation of financial incentives as a quality improvement strategy in the public hospital context : clinician attitudes, design variables, and economic costs

In 2008, a three-year pilot ‘pay for performance’ (P4P) program, known as ‘Clinical Practice Improvement Payment’ (CPIP) was introduced into Queensland Health (QHealth). QHealth is a large public health sector provider of acute, community, and public health services in Queensland, Australia. The organisation has recently embarked on a significant reform agenda including a review of existing funding arrangements (Duckett et al., 2008). Partly in response to this reform agenda, a casemix funding model has been implemented to reconnect health care funding with outcomes. CPIP was conceptualised as a performance-based scheme that rewarded quality with financial incentives. This is the first time such a scheme has been implemented into the public health sector in Australia with a focus on rewarding quality, and it is unique in that it has a large state-wide focus and includes 15 Districts. CPIP initially targeted five acute and community clinical areas including Mental Health, Discharge Medication, Emergency Department, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and Stroke. The CPIP scheme was designed around key concepts including the identification of clinical indicators that met the set criteria of: high disease burden, a well defined single diagnostic group or intervention, significant variations in clinical outcomes and/or practices, a good evidence, and clinician control and support (Ward, Daniels, Walker & Duckett, 2007). This evaluative research targeted Phase One of implementation of the CPIP scheme from January 2008 to March 2009. A formative evaluation utilising a mixed methodology and complementarity analysis was undertaken. The research involved three research questions and aimed to determine the knowledge, understanding, and attitudes of clinicians; identify improvements to the design, administration, and monitoring of CPIP; and determine the financial and economic costs of the scheme. Three key studies were undertaken to ascertain responses to the key research questions. Firstly, a survey of clinicians was undertaken to examine levels of knowledge and understanding and their attitudes to the scheme. Secondly, the study sought to apply Statistical Process Control (SPC) to the process indicators to assess if this enhanced the scheme and a third study examined a simple economic cost analysis. The CPIP Survey of clinicians elicited 192 clinician respondents. Over 70% of these respondents were supportive of the continuation of the CPIP scheme. This finding was also supported by the results of a quantitative altitude survey that identified positive attitudes in 6 of the 7 domains-including impact, awareness and understanding and clinical relevance, all being scored positive across the combined respondent group. SPC as a trending tool may play an important role in the early identification of indicator weakness for the CPIP scheme. This evaluative research study supports a previously identified need in the literature for a phased introduction of Pay for Performance (P4P) type programs. It further highlights the value of undertaking a formal risk assessment of clinician, management, and systemic levels of literacy and competency with measurement and monitoring of quality prior to a phased implementation. This phasing can then be guided by a P4P Design Variable Matrix which provides a selection of program design options such as indicator target and payment mechanisms. It became evident that a clear process is required to standardise how clinical indicators evolve over time and direct movement towards more rigorous ‘pay for performance’ targets and the development of an optimal funding model. Use of this matrix will enable the scheme to mature and build the literacy and competency of clinicians and the organisation as implementation progresses. Furthermore, the research identified that CPIP created a spotlight on clinical indicators and incentive payments of over five million from a potential ten million was secured across the five clinical areas in the first 15 months of the scheme. This indicates that quality was rewarded in the new QHealth funding model, and despite issues being identified with the payment mechanism, funding was distributed. The economic model used identified a relative low cost of reporting (under $8,000) as opposed to funds secured of over $300,000 for mental health as an example. Movement to a full cost effectiveness study of CPIP is supported. Overall the introduction of the CPIP scheme into QHealth has been a positive and effective strategy for engaging clinicians in quality and has been the catalyst for the identification and monitoring of valuable clinical process indicators. This research has highlighted that clinicians are supportive of the scheme in general; however, there are some significant risks that include the functioning of the CPIP payment mechanism. Given clinician support for the use of a pay–for-performance methodology in QHealth, the CPIP scheme has the potential to be a powerful addition to a multi-faceted suite of quality improvement initiatives within QHealth.

Framework for assessing financial literacy and superannuation investment choice decisions

There is a worldwide trend towards rapidly growing defined contribution pension funds in terms of assets and membership, and the choices available to individuals. This has shifted the decisionmaking responsibility to fund members for managing the investment of their retirement savings. This change has given rise to a phenomenon where most superannuation fund members are responsible for either actively choosing or passively relying on their funds’ default investment options. Prior research identifies that deficiencies in financial literacy is one of the causes of inertia in financial decision-making and findings from international and Australian studies show that financial illiteracy is wide-spread. Given the potential significant economic and social consequences of poor financial decision-making in superannuation matters, this paper proposes a framework by which the various demographic, social and contextual factors that influence fund members’ financial literacy and its association with investment choice decisions are explored. Enhanced theoretical and empirical understanding of the factors that are associated with active/passive investment choice decisions would enable development of well-targeted financial education programs.

Financial literacy and pension investment decisions

The call for enhanced financial literacy amongst consumers is a global phenomenon, driven by the growing complexity of financial markets and products, and government concerns about the affordability of supporting an ageing population. Worldwide, defined benefit pensions are giving way to the risk and uncertainty of defined contribution superannuation/pension funds where fund members now make choices and decisions that were once made on their behalf. An important prerequisite for informed financial decision-making is adequate financial knowledge and skills to make competent investment decisions. This paper reports the findings of an online survey of the members of a large Australian public sector-based superannuation fund and shows that although respondents generally understand basic financial matters, on average, their understanding of investments concepts, such as the relationship between risk and returns, is inadequate. These results highlight the need for education programs focusing specifically on developing fund members’ investment knowledge and skills to facilitate informed retirement savings decisions.

Stages of knowledge management systems in policing financial crime

A stage model for knowledge management systems in policing financial crime is developed in this paper. Stages of growth models enable identification of organizational maturity and direction. Information technology to support knowledge work of police officers is improving. For example, new information systems supporting police investigations are evolving. Police investigation is an information-rich and knowledge-intensive practice. Its success depends on turning information into evidence. This paper presents an organizing framework for knowledge management systems in policing financial crime. Future case studies will empirically have to illustrate and validate the stage hypothesis developed in this paper.

The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by commercial banks

In this paper we study both the level of Value-at-Risk (VaR) disclosure and the accuracy of the disclosed VaR figures for a sample of US and international commercial banks. To measure the level of VaR disclosures, we develop a VaR Disclosure Index that captures many different facets of market risk disclosure. Using panel data over the period 1996–2005, we find an overall upward trend in the quantity of information released to the public. We also find that Historical Simulation is by far the most popular VaR method. We assess the accuracy of VaR figures by studying the number of VaR exceedances and whether actual daily VaRs contain information about the volatility of subsequent trading revenues. Unlike the level of VaR disclosure, the quality of VaR disclosure shows no sign of improvement over time. We find that VaR computed using Historical Simulation contains very little information about future volatility.

Digital signal processing

Signal Processing (SP) is a subject of central importance in engineering and the applied sciences. Signals are information-bearing functions, and SP deals with the analysis and processing of signals (by dedicated systems) to extract or modify information. Signal processing is necessary because signals normally contain information that is not readily usable or understandable, or which might be disturbed by unwanted sources such as noise. Although many signals are non-electrical, it is common to convert them into electrical signals for processing. Most natural signals (such as acoustic and biomedical signals) are continuous functions of time, with these signals being referred to as analog signals. Prior to the onset of digital computers, Analog Signal Processing (ASP) and analog systems were the only tool to deal with analog signals. Although ASP and analog systems are still widely used, Digital Signal Processing (DSP) and digital systems are attracting more attention, due in large part to the significant advantages of digital systems over the analog counterparts. These advantages include superiority in performance,s peed, reliability, efficiency of storage, size and cost. In addition, DSP can solve problems that cannot be solved using ASP, like the spectral analysis of multicomonent signals, adaptive filtering, and operations at very low frequencies. Following the recent developments in engineering which occurred in the 1980's and 1990's, DSP became one of the world's fastest growing industries. Since that time DSP has not only impacted on traditional areas of electrical engineering, but has had far reaching effects on other domains that deal with information such as economics, meteorology, seismology, bioengineering, oceanology, communications, astronomy, radar engineering, control engineering and various other applications. This book is based on the Lecture Notes of Associate Professor Zahir M. Hussain at RMIT University (Melbourne, 2001-2009), the research of Dr. Amin Z. Sadik (at QUT & RMIT, 2005-2008), and the Note of Professor Peter O'Shea at Queensland University of Technology. Part I of the book addresses the representation of analog and digital signals and systems in the time domain and in the frequency domain. The core topics covered are convolution, transforms (Fourier, Laplace, Z. Discrete-time Fourier, and Discrete Fourier), filters, and random signal analysis. There is also a treatment of some important applications of DSP, including signal detection in noise, radar range estimation, banking and financial applications, and audio effects production. Design and implementation of digital systems (such as integrators, differentiators, resonators and oscillators are also considered, along with the design of conventional digital filters. Part I is suitable for an elementary course in DSP. Part II (which is suitable for an advanced signal processing course), considers selected signal processing systems and techniques. Core topics covered are the Hilbert transformer, binary signal transmission, phase-locked loops, sigma-delta modulation, noise shaping, quantization, adaptive filters, and non-stationary signal analysis. Part III presents some selected advanced DSP topics. We hope that this book will contribute to the advancement of engineering education and that it will serve as a general reference book on digital signal processing.

‘I can’t get no satisfaction’...or can I? A study of satisfaction with financial planning and client wellbeing

This paper reports findings from an ongoing collaborative research project with the Financial Services Council (FSC), which contributed funding and facilitated the survey of financial planners’ clients through FSC member organisations. The article draws on the report to the FSC that was prepared by the QUT researchers, reporting findings on the initial exploratory stage of the project.1 The lyric in the title of this paper has become a catchcry for consumers dissatisfied with a range of financial services and products, and, as recent Federal Government inquiries have revealed, there is some truth to the claim. But as financial planning undergoes a series of reforms, including increased professionalism (FPA 2009) and improved quality of advice (Australian Government 2011), there are good reasons to explore the conditions under which clients report satisfaction with their financial planners; not least because the provision of effective financial planning and advice, delivered in accordance with, or transcending, the rules and norms of industry best-practice has the potential to benefit clients, not just financially, but across a number of life domains. In this paper, we report findings from an exploratory study investigating whether financial planning and advice contribute to client well-being, beyond effects on financial well-being. While anecdotal evidence supports psychological benefits such as a sense of security, little research has explored these links in any systematic or theoretically driven way. However, theory and research from cognate disciplines, such as psychology, indicate clear links between planning, goal setting and well-being that are likely to arise in the financial planning domain. Surveyed clients were asked to indicate their satisfaction with their financial advisers, the planning process and the advice they received. Clients responded to items designed to reflect key areas for financial planners in the shift towards increased professionalism, improved disclosure and greater client focus (e.g. FPA 2009). Clients also reflected on their financial situations before and after seeing their advisers, and considered the impact of their financial situations on a number of life areas including family relationships, mental health and well-being, and overall life satisfaction.

Comparing different explanations of the volatility trend

We analyze the puzzling behavior of the volatility of individual stock returns over the past few decades. The literature has provided many different explanations to the trend in volatility and this paper tests the viability of the different explanations. Virtually all current theoretical arguments that are provided for the trend in the average level of volatility over time lend themselves to explanations about the difference in volatility levels between firms in the cross-section. We therefore focus separately on the cross-sectional and time-series explanatory power of the different proxies. We fail to find a proxy that is able to explain both dimensions well. In particular, we find that Cao et al. [Cao, C., Simin, T.T., Zhao, J., 2008. Can growth options explain the trend in idiosyncratic risk? Review of Financial Studies 21, 2599–2633] market-to-book ratio tracks average volatility levels well, but has no cross-sectional explanatory power. On the other hand, the low-price proxy suggested by Brandt et al. [Brandt, M.W., Brav, A., Graham, J.R., Kumar, A., 2010. The idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: time trend or speculative episodes. Review of Financial Studies 23, 863–899] has much cross-sectional explanatory power, but has virtually no time-series explanatory power. We also find that the different proxies do not explain the trend in volatility in the period prior to 1995 (R-squared of virtually zero), but explain rather well the trend in volatility at the turn of the Millennium (1995–2005).