Análise estatística do preço da energia elétrica em mercado livre - Uma aplicação ao caso português

Neste relatório apresentam-se resultados de um estudo estatístico que procura contribuir para um melhor entendimento da problemática inerente à liberalização do setor elétrico em Portugal e dos desafios que esta liberalização, existente desde meados de 2007, trás aos seus intervenientes. Iniciam-se os trabalhos com um estudo que pretende avaliar a existência de relação entre o Preço de Mercado da eletricidade e um conjunto de variáveis potencialmente explicativas/condicionantes do Preço de Mercado. Neste estudo consideram-se duas abordagens. A primeira usa a função de correlação cruzada para avaliar a existência de relação do tipo linear entre pares de variáveis. A segunda considera o teste causalidade de Granger na avaliação de uma relação de causa e efeito entre esses pares. Este estudo avaliou a relação entre o Preço de Mercado da eletricidade e 19 variáveis ditas condicionantes distribuídas por três categorias distintas (consumo e produção de eletricidade; indicadores climáticos; e energias primárias). O intervalo de tempo em estudo cinge-se ao biénio 2012-2103. Durante este período avaliam-se as relações entre as variáveis em diversos sub-períodos de tempo em ciclos de consumo representativos do consumo em baixa (fim de semana) e de consumo mais elevado (fora de vazio) com os valores observados de cada uma das variáveis tratados com uma base horária e diária (média). Os resultados obtidos mostram a existência relação linear entre algumas das variáveis em estudo e o preço da eletricidade em regime de mercado liberalizado, mas raramente é possível identificar precedência temporal entre as variáveis. Considerando os resultados da análise de correlação e causalidade, apresenta-se ainda um modelo de previsão do Preço de Mercado para o curto e médio prazo em horas de período fora de vazio.

Kids nature camp

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Hábitos e problemas do sono das crianças dos 2 a 10 anos

RESUMO: Enquadramento: O sono é cada vez mais reconhecido como um fator determinante na Saúde Infantil porque, quando desadequado, pode ter consequências na regulação emocional e do comportamento, nas funções cognitivas, no rendimento académico, na regulação do peso e no risco de lesões acidentais. Os hábitos e problemas do sono das crianças portuguesas não se encontram ainda bem caracterizados. Este conhecimento é importante para o desenvolvimento da investigação e para a promoção da saúde nesta área. Objetivos: Adaptar e validar o Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire (CSHQ) para a cultura portuguesa; Caracterizar os hábitos de sono de uma amostra de crianças dos 2 aos 10 anos tendo em vista a obtenção de dados de referência; Estimar a prevalência dos problemas do sono na perspetiva dos pais; Avaliar se existem diferenças nos hábitos e problemas do sono entre as regiões de média-alta e baixa densidade populacional; Identificar potenciais consequências dos problemas do sono. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo transversal, descritivo e correlacional. A versão portuguesa do questionário (CSHQ-PT) foi desenvolvida de acordo com as orientações previamente publicadas e validada numa amostra de 315 crianças dos 2 aos 10 anos. Para o estudo dos hábitos e problemas do sono, o CSHQ-PT foi distribuído aos pais de 2257 crianças recrutadas em 17 zonas de agrupamentos escolares (15 escolhidos de forma aleatória) das áreas da Grande Lisboa, Península de Setúbal e Alentejo, compreendendo zonas litorais e do interior, e de alta, média e baixa densidade populacional. Foram obtidos 1450 (64%) questionários válidos. Resultados: O CSHQ-PT mostrou propriedades psicométricas semelhantes às das versões de outros países e adequadas para a investigação. A avaliação dos hábitos de sono nos dias de semana mostrou que as crianças se deitam, em média, pelas 21h 44m (DP 38 min.). A necessidade da companhia dos pais para adormecer diminui com a idade, ocorrendo em 49% das crianças aos 2-3 anos e 10% aos 9-10 anos. O hábito de adormecer a ver televisão foi descrito em 15,8% das crianças. O tempo total de sono diário diminui com a idade, com uma diferença mais marcada dos 2 para os 3 anos e dos 3 para os 4 anos, quando a sesta se torna menos frequente. No fim de semana, 25% das crianças dormia pelo menos mais uma hora. As diferenças nos hábitos de sono entre regiões de média-alta e de baixa densidade populacional foram reduzidas, sem reflexo na duração média do sono. Considerando valores de referência de outros países, verificou-se que 10% das crianças estudadas tinha uma duração do sono dois desvios-padrão abaixo da média esperada para a idade. A prevalência dos problemas do sono na perspetiva dos pais foi de 10,4%, sem diferenças significativas entre classes etárias, subgrupos de nível educacional dos pais, nem entre zonas de média-alta e baixa densidade populacional. Estes problemas do sono mostraram-se associados, sobretudo, à duração do sono insuficiente, resistência em ir para a cama, dificuldade em adormecer sozinho, despertares noturnos frequentes e ocorrência de parassónias. A baixa prevalência de problemas do sono identificados pelos pais contrasta com cotações elevadas no CSHQ-PT que traduzem comportamentos-problema mais frequentes, que são bem aceites por alguns pais. O Índice de Perturbação do Sono foi mais elevado nas famílias com menor nível educacional. Em análise multivariada mostraram valor preditivo para a sonolência diurna: o tempo total de sono diário, a diferença da duração do sono noturno durante a semana e no fim de semana, a frequência de algumas parassónias e o hábito de adormecer a ver televisão. O rendimento escolar mostrou associação com os problemas do sono, que são mais frequentes nas crianças com dificuldades escolares e hiperatividade/problemas de atenção. A relação entre estas variáveis é complexa. Conclusões: Este estudo mostrou que os problemas comportamentais do sono e a privação de sono são frequentes na população estudada. Estes problemas têm consequências, uma vez que correspondem a uma frequência mais elevada de sintomas de sonolência diurna, por comparação com outros países. Perante este cenário, é muito importante reforçar a promoção de hábitos de sono saudáveis e continuar a estudar as consequências do sono desadequado nas crianças portuguesas. -----------ABSTRACT:Framework: Sleep is increasingly being recognized as important to Child Health, for inadequate sleep may impact behavioral and emotional regulation, cognitive functions, academic performance, weight regulation and the risk of accidental injuries. The sleep habits and sleep problems of Portuguese children are not well characterized. This knowledge is important to support further studies and health promotion actions. Objectives: Develop and validate a Portuguese version of the Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire (CSHQ-PT); Characterize the sleep habits and problems in a sample of Portuguese children from the ages of 2 to 10 for future reference; Estimate the prevalence of parent-defined sleep problems; Assess whether there are differences in sleep habits and problems between regions of medium-high and low population densities; Identify potential consequences of sleep problems. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional, descriptive and correlational study. The Portuguese version of the questionnaire (CSHQ-PT) was developed according to published guidelines and validated in a sample of 315 children from 2 to 10 years old (y.o.). In order to study sleep habits and problems we delivered the CSHQ-PT to 2257 children recruited from 17 school districts (15 were chosen randomly) in areas with low, medium and high population densities, including coastline and inland regions. 1450 (64%) valid questionnaires were obtained. Results: The CSHQ-PT demonstrated psychometric properties that were similar to the versions from other countries and adequate for research. The evaluation of sleep habits showed that on schooldays children go to bed, on average, at 21h 44m (SD 38 min.). The need of having the parent in the room at bedtime decreases with the age of the child, occurring in 49% of children with 2-3 y.o. and 10% of children between 9 and 10 y.o. The habit of going asleep while watching TV was reported in 15,8% of the children. Total sleep time diminishes with the age of the child, having a major decrease from 2 to 3 y.o. and from 3 to 4 y.o., along with less frequent naps. During the weekend, 25% of the children sleep at least one extra hour. Considering reference values from other series, we found that 10% of the children had a sleep duration two standard deviations below the mean for the age. The differences in sleep habits between regions of medium-high and low population densities are few, and there are no differences in average sleep durations. The prevalence of parent-defined sleep problems was 10.4%. There were no significant differences between age classes, parent education subgroups or between regions of medium-high and low population densities. These sleep problems were associated with insufficient sleep duration, bedtime resistance, difficulty in falling asleep alone, frequent night awakenings and the occurrence of parasomnias. The low prevalence of parent-defined sleep problems contrasts with high CSHQ scores meaning that problematic behaviors are more frequent, but acceptable to some parents. The Sleep Disturbance Score was higher in families with a lower educational level. In multivariate analysis, the following factors predicted the daytime somnolence score: total sleep time, the difference in night sleep duration between the weekend and school days, the frequency of some parasomnias and the habit of falling asleep while watching TV. School achievement showed a negative correlation with the sleep problems, which are more frequent in children with school difficulties and hyperactivity/attention problems. The relationship between these variables is complex. Conclusions: This study evidenced that behavioral sleep problems and sleep deprivation are common in our population. These sleep problems have consequences as they correspond to more symptoms of excessive daytime somnolence comparing to other countries. Therefore, we reinforce the importance of promoting healthy sleep habits and further study the consequences of inadequate sleep in Portuguese children.

Efeito fim-de-semana e noite : impacto do momento de admissão sobre a mortalidade e a demora média no internamento

RESUMO - Contexto: Admite-se a existência de variações no número e nível de experiência dos profissionais de saúde disponíveis nos hospitais durante a noite e o fim-de-semana. As consequências desta situação na qualidade dos cuidados de saúde prestados expõem a importância deste estudo realizado com o objetivo de avaliar o impacto do momento de admissão sobre a mortalidade e a demora média no internamento. Metodologia: Foram estudados 201 369 episódios urgentes, admitidos com um de 36 diagnósticos principais, de acordo com as informações na base de dados dos resumos de alta, para o ano de 2012. O momento de admissão foi definido por período (dias úteis/fim-de-semana) e por hora (dia/noite), e estimaram-se os efeitos fim-de-semana e noite ao nível da mortalidade e da demora média em modelos de regressão logística. Resultados: Registou-se um aumento de 3% no risco de morte, em doentes admitidos ao fim-de-semana. Diferenças que não se verificaram entre os doentes admitidos de dia e de noite. Relativamente à demora média, verificou-se um aumento de 3% na probabilidade dos doentes admitidos durante o fim-de-semana terem uma demora média de internamento superior. Assim como os doentes admitidos durante a noite apresentaram um aumento de 2,9% na probabilidade de terem demora média de internamento mais longa. Conclusão: Os dados apresentados permitem um melhor conhecimento sobre a influência da variação da atividade hospitalar ao longo do dia e da semana nos hospitais portugueses, identificando a necessidade de aprofundar o tema e de implementar medidas que suprimam os efeitos fim-de-semana e noite.

Jornalismo televisivo de ciência e ambiente: O caso dos telejornais de Domingo da SIC

O jornalismo de ciência e de ambiente é um campo pouco estudado em Portugal. Esta investigação apresenta-se com o objetivo de compreender e caracterizar a mediatização de temas científicos e ambientais, tendo como ponto de partida os telejornais de Domingo da Sociedade Independente de Comunicação (SIC). Procurou-se essencialmente perceber qual a representatividade destes temas nos telejornais através da análise dos alinhamentos, bem como o destaque, o género jornalístico predominante e o tipo de jornalistas que realizam peças sobre as temáticas em estudo. O presente relatório resulta e reflete uma experiência pessoal acumulada durante um estágio, com a duração de seis meses, na redação da SIC, do qual resultaram também conclusões pertinentes através da observação participante.

Impacto da alteração de um sistema de turnos semicontínuo para laboração contínua

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia

Population Normalization with Ammonium in Wastewater-Based Epidemiology: Application to Illicit Drug Monitoring

Fluctuations in ammonium (NH4+), measured as NH4-N loads using an ion-selective electrode installed at the inlet of a sewage treatment plant, showed a distinctive pattern which was associated to weekly (i.e., commuters) and seasonal (i.e., holidays) fluctuations of the population. Moreover, population size estimates based on NH4-N loads were lower compared to census data. Diurnal profiles of benzoylecgonine (BE) and 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH) were shown to be strongly correlated to NH4-N. Characteristic patterns, which reflect the prolonged nocturnal activity of people during the weekend, could be observed for BE, cocaine, and a major metabolite of MDMA (i.e., 4-hydroxy-3-methoxymethamphetamine). Additional 24 h composite samples were collected between February and September 2013. Per-capita loads (i.e., grams per day per 1000 inhabitants) were computed using census data and NH4-N measurements. Normalization with NH4-N did not modify the overall pattern, suggesting that the magnitude of fluctuations in the size of the population is negligible compared to those of illicit drug loads. Results show that fluctuations in the size of the population over longer periods of time or during major events can be monitored using NH4-N loads: either using raw NH4-N loads or population size estimates based on NH4-N loads, if information about site-specific NH4-N population equivalents is available.

Mesurer la pratique religieuse: différentes enquêtes, différents taux? Analyse comparative à partir de la Suisse

In Switzerland, national census data imply that 84.5 percent are affiliated with religious groups and national survey data imply that 15 percent attend a service on a given weekend in 2009. Research in other countries has shown that attendance is often over-reported, but the level of over-report varies across countries. Thus, in the United States, polls show high and stable levels of religious practice, while Church participation surveys indicate rates twice lower. This article assesses the validity of self-reported affiliation and attendance in Switzerland using the 2009 Swiss National Congregations Study (NCS). Results confirm the observation offered by others that the Swiss census undercounts the persuasions absent from the stylized response categories and they show for the first time that Swiss probably over-report their church attendance, though not as much as in the United States.

Differential association of drinking motives with alcohol use on weekdays and weekends.

Drinking motives (DM) reflect the reasons why individuals drink alcohol. Weekdays are mainly dedicated to work, whereas weekends are generally associated with spending time with friends during special events or leisure activities; using alcohol on weekdays and weekends may also be related to different DM. This study examined whether DM were differentially associated with drinking volume (DV) on weekdays and weekends. A representative sample of 5,391 young Swiss men completed a questionnaire assessing weekday and weekend DV, as well as their DM, namely, enhancement, social, coping, and conformity motives. Associations of DM with weekday and weekend DV were examined using structural equation models. Each DM was tested individually in a separate model; all associations were positive and generally stronger (except conformity) for weekend rather than for weekday DV. Further specific patterns of association were found when DM were entered into a single model simultaneously. Associations with weekday and with weekend DV were positive for enhancement and coping motives. However, associations were stronger with weekend rather than with weekday DV for enhancement, and stronger with weekday than with weekend DV for coping motives. Associations of social motives were not significant with weekend DV and negative with weekday DV. Conformity motives were negatively associated with weekend DV and positively related to weekday DV. These results suggest that interventions targeting enhancement motives should be particularly effective at decreasing weekend drinking, whereas interventions targeted at coping motives would be particularly effective at reducing alcohol use on weekdays. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

You don't have to be drunk to be doing real damage

This booklet highlights the effects of binge drinking ie packing drinking into a few sessions, usually at the weekend.

PHA urges 'freshers' to be smart and know their alcohol limits

As 'fresher's week' commences, the Public Health Agency is encouraging students across Northern Ireland to avoid binge drinking and to know their limits if they do choose to drink alcohol.Enjoying new freedoms, at college or university, means taking care of yourself and others and, if you choose to drink, staying within safe alcohol limits. Owen O'Neill, PHA Health and Social Wellbeing Improvement Manager for drugs and alcohol, said: "Some young people may drink more when they leave home, or join their friends in college or university for the first time. They might think that, as young people, they don't have to take care with alcohol, but staying within the safe drinking limits is important for everyone who drinks. Excessive and binge drinking can have lasting effects on health, such as damage to the liver, heart, brain and stomach. Drinking too much can also increase the risk of accidents and antisocial behaviour as well as sexually transmitted infections and unplanned pregnancy"."We would also strongly advise against drinking games. Although they are regarded as a 'bit of fun', in reality they can be very dangerous. As an extreme form of binge drinking, where large quantities of alcohol are consumed in a very short time, drinking games can result in alcohol poisoning, leading to brain damage, coma or death. The PHA encourages students to enjoy their new student life, but urges them to be aware of their alcohol intake and drink responsibly, especially throughout fresher's week, with the many cheap drink promotions currently available."Daily alcohol limits are recommended by the government in order to avoid the risks of excessive and binge drinking in any one session. These are:Men: No more than 3 to 4 units of alcohol a day and no more than 21 units over the course of the week.Women: No more than 2 to 3 units of alcohol a day and no more than 14 units over the course of the week.Examples of units:Can of extra strong lager - 4 unitsBottle of lager - 1.5 unitsPint of standard lager - 2.5 unitsPint of premium larger - 3 unitsSmall pub bottle of wine - 2.25 units70cl bottle of wine - 7 to 10 unitsStandard 275ml of alcopops - 1.5 to 1.8 units70cl bottle of alcopops - 3.75 to 4.5 unitsPub measure of spirits - 1.5 unitsPint of cider - 3 unitsPint of stout - 2.5 unitsIf you do choose to drink alcohol:DON'T:Ever drink and driveDrink on an empty stomachMix alcohol with other drugsDrink in rounds as this may speed up your drinkingLeave your drinks unattendedDO:Take sips rather than gulpsAlternate each alcoholic drink with a non alcoholic drink e.g. water or a soft drinkSet yourself a limit and try to stick to it (refer to daily alcohol limits) Take frequent breaks from drinking to give your body time to recoverTell friends and family where you are going and who you will be withRemember, that for each unit you drink over the daily limit, the risk to your health increases. It's important to spread the units throughout the week - you can't 'save up' your units for the weekend or your holiday. It is also important to drink plenty of water, ideally matching the amount of alcohol you have consumed.So students make smart choices this term - drink sensibly and know your limits!For further information on sensible drinking and alcohol units visit the Public Health Agency's website www.knowyourlimits.info

PHA reinforce sensible drinking in Alcohol Awareness Week

Recent health figures show that 20% of adults surveyed admitted to drinking over the weekly alcohol limits (1)so the Public Health Agency is using Alcohol Awareness Week (14-20th November) to reinforce the importance of drinking sensibly and staying within safe alcohol limits.Government guidelines on safe drinking are 21 units per week for males and 14 units per week for females. Staying within these limits is important as excessive and binge drinking can lead, in the short term, to increased risk of accidents, antisocial behaviour, impact on relationships, unplanned pregnancy. Longer term it can damage the liver, heart, brain and stomach, not to mention the other human costs, and costs to the economy and society as a whole.Owen O'Neill, PHA Health and Social Wellbeing Improvement Manager and Drugs and Alcohol Lead, said: "The Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety's drinking limits are in place to encourage the public to develop safe and sensible drinking habits. However, these recent figures highlight that not everyone is adhering to these limits. It is crucial that those who do decide to have a drink do so in moderation and stick to the recommended limits to prevent any long or short term damages".The message is clear, if you drink, remember to be smart and enjoy alcohol within safe limits. People should follow the recommended daily alcohol intake. These are:Men: No more than 3 to 4 units of alcohol a day and no more than 21 units over the course of the week.Women: No more than 2 to 3 units of alcohol a day and no more than 14 units over the course of the week.Examples of units:Can of extra strong lager - 4 unitsBottle of lager - 1.5 unitsPint of standard lager - 2.5 unitsPint of premium larger - 3 unitsSmall pub bottle of wine - 2.25 unitsPub measure of spirits - 1.5 unitsPint of cider - 3 unitsPint of stout - 2.5 units. Remember, that for each unit you drink over the daily limit, the risk to your health increases. It's important to spread the units throughout the week - you can't 'save up' your units for the weekend or an upcoming holiday. It is also important to drink plenty of water, ideally matching the amount of alcohol you have consumed.For further information on sensible drinking and alcohol units visit the Public Health Agency's website www.knowyourlimits.infoReference(1) Health Survey Northern Ireland: first results from the 2010/2011 survey (2011) DHSSPS, http://dhsspsni.giv/index/stats_research/stats-public-health.htm

A New Year's Resolution - be smart about your drinking!

Now 2012 has arrived, the Public Health Agency is encouraging people to make a New Year's resolution to know their limits when it comes to alcohol, not to drink excessively and to cut back for a while, especially if the festive period led to a little too much consumption.Owen O'Neill, PHA Health and Social Wellbeing Improvement Manager and drugs and alcohol lead, explained: "The New Year is a great opportunity for us to be positive about our health, making resolutions that make us look and feel better. If people choose to drink, staying within the safe drinking limits is important. Excessive and binge drinking can have lasting effects on health, such as damage to the liver, heart, brain and stomach. Drinking too much can also increase the risk of accidents and antisocial behaviour as well as sexually transmitted infections and unplanned pregnancy. And it doesn't have to be drinking to extremes - regularly drinking over the recommended limits can have a damaging effect."Remember that for each unit you drink over the daily limit, the risk to your health increases. It's important to spread the units throughout the week and not 'save' them for the weekend and to drink plenty of water, ideally matching the amount of alcohol you have consumed."For those who have consumed a lot of alcohol over the festive season, cutting back in the New Year and being careful can have immediate, positive effects particularly on helping you to look and feel better, being less tired during the day, feeling fitter and perhaps losing weight. Longer term, the benefits include improved mood, sleep, memory and general health, particularly improving liver function, immunity to illness and preventing any damage caused by any excessive drinking getting any worse."Daily alcohol limits are recommended by the government to avoid the dangers of excessive and binge drinking in any one session. These are:MenNo more than 3 to 4 units of alcohol a day and no more than 21 units over the course of the week.WomenNo more than 2 to 3 units of alcohol a day and no more than 14 units over the course of the week.Examples of units:Can of extra strong lager - 4 unitsBottle of lager - 1.5 unitsSmall pub bottle of wine - 2.25 unitsPub measure of spirits - 1.5 unitsPint of stout - 2.5 unitsPint of cider - 3 unitsFor further information on sensible drinking and alcohol units visit the Public Health Agency's website www.knowyourlimits.info

Gender and the professional career of primary care physicians in Andalusia (Spain).

Background: Although the proportion of women in medicine is growing, female physicians continue to be disadvantaged in professional activities. The purpose of the study was to determine and compare the professional activities of female and male primary care physicians in Andalusia and to assess the effect of the health center on the performance of these activities. Methods: Descriptive, cross-sectional, and multicenter study. Setting: Spain. Participants: Population: urban health centers and their physicians. Sample: 88 health centers and 500 physicians. Independent variable: gender. Measurements: Control variables: age, postgraduate family medicine specialty (FMS), patient quota, patients/day, hours/day housework from Monday to Friday, idem weekend, people at home with special care, and family situation. Dependent variables: 24 professional activities in management, teaching, research, and the scientific community. Self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive, bivariate, and multilevel logistic regression analyses. Results: Response: 73.6%. Female physicians: 50.8%. Age: female physicians, 49.1 ± 4.3 yrs; male physicians, 51.3 ± 4.9 yrs (p < 0.001). Female physicians with FMS: 44.2%, male physicians with FMS: 33.3% (p < 0.001). Female physicians dedicated more hours to housework and more frequently lived alone versus male physicians. There were no differences in healthcare variables. Thirteen of the studied activities were less frequently performed by female physicians, indicating their lesser visibility in the production and diffusion of scientific knowledge. Performance of the majority of professional activities was independent of the health center in which the physician worked. Conclusions: There are gender inequities in the development of professional activities in urban health centers in Andalusia, even after controlling for family responsibilities, work load, and the effect of the health center, which was important in only a few of the activities under study.

Physical activity assessment using a pedometer and its comparison with a questionnaire in a large population survey.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of the pedometer in epidemiologic research on physical activity. Within the framework of a health examination survey in 1988-1989, physical activity was assessed in a representative population sample of 493 men and women aged 25-74 years who were residents of Switzerland. They wore a pedometer for 1 week at work and during leisure time, and the results, converted into steps per day, were compared with answers to a questionnaire. The average number of steps per day decreased from 11,900 to 6,700 and from 9,300 to 7,300 for men and women, respectively, in the youngest to the oldest age groups. For men, categorized according to type of physical activity at work, there was a highly significant difference in the number of steps (p < 0.001), whereas in women the results were associated with leisure-time physical activity (p = 0.003). For both sexes, practicing sports more than once a week was associated with an important increase in steps per day. Analyzing the number of steps according to the day of the week and occupational category produced an unexpected result: Men with a physically active job engaged in more leisure-time physical activity on the weekend. The pedometer proved to be useful in assessing physical activity in a large, free-living population.