Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

(Table 1) Results of measurements of production characteristics of phytoplankton and some physical parameters of the environment in the northeastern Norwegian Sea in July 1995

From July 4 to 18,1995 surface chlorophyll a concentrations (C_cs) and integral primary production (C_ps) were studied in the northeastern part of the Norwegian Sea (73°42'N; 13°16'E), over a test area where an accident of the nuclear submarine Komsomolets had taken place. It was found that during this interval C_cs decreased by factor of about 3.3 (from 0.78 to 0.24 mg/m**3); average chlorophyll concentration within the photo-synthetic layer (C_cl) decreased by factor of about 3.5 (from 0.97 to 0.28 mg/m**3). The value of C_ps in the water column varied slightly (from 445 to 539 mg C/m**2 per day), since decrease in C_cl was compensated both by 1.5-fold growth of the photosynthetic layer thickness (from 40 to 60 m) and by 2.1-fold increase in its average assimilation number (from 0.58 to 1.20 mg C/mg chl a per hour). Monthly averages of C_ps were obtained from published data on seasonal C_cs changes and on the level of incident solar irradiation. They were found to be less than 100 mg C/m**2 per day in March and October and 100-500 mg C/m**2 per day in April-June. Annual primary production calculated from above values was equal to 105 g C/m**2.

In vitro evaluation of commercial fibrolytic enzymes for improving the nutritive value of low-quality forages.

The aim of this work was to assess the effects of four doses of three commercial fibrolytic enzymes on ruminal fermentation of rice straw, maize stover and Pennisetum purpureum clon Cuba CT115 hay in batch cultures of ruminal micro-organisms from sheep. One enzyme was produced by Penicillium funiculosum (PEN) and two were from Trichoderma longibrachiatum (TL1 and TL2). Each liquid enzyme was diluted 200 (D1), 100 (D2), 50 (D3) and 10 (D4) - fold and applied to each substrate in quadruplicate over time and incubated for 120 h in rumen fluid. The D4 dose of each enzyme increased (P<0.05) the fractional rate of gas production and organic matter effective degradability for all substrates, and TL2 had similar effects when applied at D3. In 9 h incubations, PEN at D4, TL1 at all tested doses, and TL2 at D2, D3 and D4 increased (P<0.05) volatile fatty acid production and dry matter degradability for all substrates. The commercial enzymes tested were effective at increasing in vitro ruminal fermentation of low-quality forages, although effective doses varied with the enzyme.

Exploring the economic value of personal information from firms' financial statements

Currently personal data gathering in online markets is done on a far larger scale and much cheaper and faster than ever before. Within this scenario, a number of highly relevant companies for whom personal data is the key factor of production have emerged. However, up to now, the corresponding economic analysis has been restricted primarily to a qualitative perspective linked to privacy issues. Precisely, this paper seeks to shed light on the quantitative perspective, approximating the value of personal information for those companies that base their business model on this new type of asset. In the absence of any systematic research or methodology on the subject, an ad hoc procedure is developed in this paper. It starts with the examination of the accounts of a number of key players in online markets. This inspection first aims to determine whether the value of personal information databases is somehow reflected in the firms’ books, and second to define performance measures able to capture this value. After discussing the strengths and weaknesses of possible approaches, the method that performs best under several criteria (revenue per data record) is selected. From here, an estimation of the net present value of personal data is derived, as well as a slight digression into regional differences in the economic value of personal information.

Composition, potential emissions and agricultural value of pig slurry from Spanish commercial farms

Pig slurry is a valuable fertilizer for crop production but at the same time its management may pose environmental risks. Slurry samples were collected from 77 commercial farms of four animal categories (gestating and lactating sows, nursery piglets and growing pigs) and analyzed for macronutrients, micronutrients, heavy metals and volatile fatty acids. Emissions of ammonia (NH3) and biochemical methane potential (BMP) were quantified. Slurry electrical conductivity, pH, dry matter content and ash content were also determined. Data analysis included an analysis of correlations among variables, the development of prediction models for gaseous emissions and the analysis of nutritional content of slurries for crop production. Descriptive information is provided in this work and shows a wide range of variability in all studied variables. Animal category affected some physicochemical parameters, probably as a consequence of different slurry management and use of cleaning water. Slurries from gestating sows and growing pigs tended to be more concentrated in nutrients, whereas the slurry from lactating sows and nursery piglets tended to be more diluted. Relevant relationships were found among slurry characteristics expressed in fresh basis and gas emissions. Predictive models using on-farm measurable parameters were obtained for NH3 (R2 = 0.51) and CH4

Műszaki és gazdasági hatékonyság Koopmans termeléselméletében (Technical and economic efficiency in Koopmans' theory of production)

Koopmans gyakorlati problémák megoldása során szerzett tapasztalatait általánosítva fogott hozzá a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell kidolgozásához. Meglepődve tapasztalta, hogy a korabeli közgazdaságtan nem rendelkezett egységes, kellően egzakt termeléselmélettel és fogalomrendszerrel. Úttörő dolgozatában ezért - mintegy a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell elméleti kereteként - lerakta a technológiai halmazok fogalmán nyugvó axiomatikus termeléselmélet alapjait is. Nevéhez fűződik a termelési hatékonyság és a hatékonysági árak fogalmának egzakt definíciója, s az egymást kölcsönösen feltételező viszonyuk igazolása a lineáris tevékenységelemzési modell keretében. A hatékonyság manapság használatos, pusztán műszaki szempontból értelmezett definícióját Koopmans csak sajátos esetként tárgyalta, célja a gazdasági hatékonyság fogalmának a bevezetése és elemzése volt. Dolgozatunkban a lineáris programozás dualitási tételei segítségével rekonstruáljuk ez utóbbira vonatkozó eredményeit. Megmutatjuk, hogy egyrészt bizonyításai egyenértékűek a lineáris programozás dualitási tételeinek igazolásával, másrészt a gazdasági hatékonysági árak voltaképpen a mai értelemben vett árnyékárak. Rámutatunk arra is, hogy a gazdasági hatékonyság értelmezéséhez megfogalmazott modellje az Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie-féle általános egyensúlyelméleti modellek közvetlen előzményének tekinthető, tartalmazta azok szinte minden lényeges elemét és fogalmát - az egyensúlyi árak nem mások, mint a Koopmans-féle hatékonysági árak. Végezetül újraértelmezzük Koopmans modelljét a vállalati technológiai mikroökonómiai leírásának lehetséges eszközeként. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: B23, B41, C61, D20, D50. /===/ Generalizing from his experience in solving practical problems, Koopmans set about devising a linear model for analysing activity. Surprisingly, he found that economics at that time possessed no uniform, sufficiently exact theory of production or system of concepts for it. He set out in a pioneering study to provide a theoretical framework for a linear model for analysing activity by expressing first the axiomatic bases of production theory, which rest on the concept of technological sets. He is associated with exact definition of the concept of production efficiency and efficiency prices, and confirmation of their relation as mutual postulates within the linear model of activity analysis. Koopmans saw the present, purely technical definition of efficiency as a special case; he aimed to introduce and analyse the concept of economic efficiency. The study uses the duality precepts of linear programming to reconstruct the results for the latter. It is shown first that evidence confirming the duality precepts of linear programming is equal in value, and secondly that efficiency prices are really shadow prices in today's sense. Furthermore, the model for the interpretation of economic efficiency can be seen as a direct predecessor of the Arrow–Debreu–McKenzie models of general equilibrium theory, as it contained almost every essential element and concept of them—equilibrium prices are nothing other than Koopmans' efficiency prices. Finally Koopmans' model is reinterpreted as a necessary tool for microeconomic description of enterprise technology.

Az egyensúlyi ráták unicitása és a bérráta pozitivitása a Neumann-modell általánosításaiban (Uniqueness of equilibrium rates and the positive value of the wage rate in generalizations from the Neumann model)

Cikkünk arról a paradox jelenségről szól, hogy a fogyasztást explicit módon megjelenítő Neumann-modell egyensúlyi megoldásaiban a munkabért meghatározó létszükségleti termékek ára esetenként nulla lehet, és emiatt a reálbér egyensúlyi értéke is nulla lesz. Ez a jelenség mindig bekövetkezik az olyan dekomponálható gazdaságok esetén, amelyekben eltérő növekedési és profitrátájú, alternatív egyensúlyi megoldások léteznek. A jelenség sokkal áttekinthetőbb formában tárgyalható a modell Leontief-eljárásra épülő egyszerűbb változatában is, amit ki is használunk. Megmutatjuk, hogy a legnagyobbnál alacsonyabb szintű növekedési tényezőjű megoldások közgazdasági szempontból értelmetlenek, és így érdektelenek. Ezzel voltaképpen egyrészt azt mutatjuk meg, hogy Neumann kiváló intuíciója jól működött, amikor ragaszkodott modellje egyértelmű megoldásához, másrészt pedig azt is, hogy ehhez nincs szükség a gazdaság dekomponálhatóságának feltételezésére. A vizsgált téma szorosan kapcsolódik az általános profitráta meghatározásának - Sraffa által modern formába öntött - Ricardo-féle elemzéséhez, illetve a neoklasszikus növekedéselmélet nevezetes bér-profit, illetve felhalmozás-fogyasztás átváltási határgörbéihez, ami jelzi a téma elméleti és elmélettörténeti érdekességét is. / === / In the Marx-Neumann version of the Neumann model introduced by Morishima, the use of commodities is split between production and consumption, and wages are determined as the cost of necessary consumption. In such a version it may occur that the equilibrium prices of all goods necessary for consumption are zero, so that the equilibrium wage rate becomes zero too. In fact such a paradoxical case will always arise when the economy is decomposable and the equilibrium not unique in terms of growth and interest rate. It can be shown that a zero equilibrium wage rate will appear in all equilibrium solutions where growth and interest rate are less than maximal. This is another proof of Neumann's genius and intuition, for he arrived at the uniqueness of equilibrium via an assumption that implied that the economy was indecomposable, a condition relaxed later by Kemeny, Morgenstern and Thompson. This situation occurs also in similar models based on Leontief technology and such versions of the Marx-Neumann model make the roots of the problem more apparent. Analysis of them also yields an interesting corollary to Ricardo's corn rate of profit: the real cause of the awkwardness is bad specification of the model: luxury commodities are introduced without there being a final demand for them, and production of them becomes a waste of resources. Bad model specification shows up as a consumption coefficient incompatible with the given technology in the more general model with joint production and technological choice. For the paradoxical situation implies the level of consumption could be raised and/or the intensity of labour diminished without lowering the equilibrium rate of the growth and interest. This entails wasteful use of resources and indicates again that the equilibrium conditions are improperly specified. It is shown that the conditions for equilibrium can and should be redefined for the Marx-Neumann model without assuming an indecomposable economy, in a way that ensures the existence of an equilibrium unique in terms of the growth and interest rate coupled with a positive value for the wage rate, so confirming Neumann's intuition. The proposed solution relates closely to findings of Bromek in a paper correcting Morishima's generalization of wage/profit and consumption/investment frontiers.

The Narrative Value of Dance Communication: "habitus", musicality and emotion

The richness of dance comes from the need to work with an individual body. Still, the body of the dancer belongs to plural context, crossed by artistic and social traditions, which locate the artists in a given field. We claim that role conflict is an essential component of the structure of collective artistic creativity. We address the production of discourse in a British dance company, with data that spawns from the ethnography ‘Dance and Cognition’, directed by David Kirsh at the University of California, together with WayneMcGregor-Random Dance. Our Critical Discourse Analysis is based on multiple interviews to the dancers and choreographer. Our findings show how creativity in dance seems to be empirically observable, and thus embodied and distributed shaped by the dance habitus of the particular social context.

Determination of biodiesel quality parameters for optimization of production process conditions

According to many scientists third industrial revolution has already began and this primarily means the transition to renewable energy sources. Energy requirements are increasing rapidly due to fast industrialization and the increased number of vehicles on the roads. Massive consumption of fossil fuels leads to environmental pollution, therefore, biofuels are offered as an alternative. For example, the application of biodiesel in diesel engines instead of diesel results in the proven reduction of harmful exhaust emissions. One of the most important technologies, which has been already explored at the commercial level, is the production of a liquid biofuel applicable in compression-ignition engines (or diesel engines), from biomass rich in fats and oils. This biofuel is generically referred as biodiesel, and consists essentially of a mixture of FAME's (fatty acid methyl esters). This current work describes modern approaches of biodiesel production from vegetable oil and subsequent analysis of produced biodiesel main characteristics such as density, acidity, iodine value and FAME content.

Productivity growth and the structure of production

In this study, interactions between potential hierarchical value chains existing in the production structure and industry-wise productivity growths are sought. We applied generalized Chenery-Watanabe heuristics for matrix linearity maximization to triangulate the input-output incidence matrix for both Japan and the Republic of Korea, finding the potential directed flow of values spanning the industrial sectors of the basic (disaggregated) industry classifications for both countries. Sector specific productivity growths were measured by way of the Trönquvist index, using the 2000-2005 linked input-output tables for both Japan and Korea.

The Value Of The 2005 International Society Of Urological Pathology (isup) Modified Gleason Grading System As A Predictor Of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy.

To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.

Prognostic Value Of Dna And Mrna E6/e7 Of Human Papillomavirus In The Evolution Of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 2.

This study aimed at evaluating whether human papillomavirus (HPV) groups and E6/E7 mRNA of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, and 45 are prognostic of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 outcome in women with a cervical smear showing a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). This cohort study included women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 who were followed up for 12 months, with cervical smear and colposcopy performed every three months. Women with a negative or low-risk HPV status showed 100% CIN 2 regression. The CIN 2 regression rates at the 12-month follow-up were 69.4% for women with alpha-9 HPV versus 91.7% for other HPV species or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). For women with HPV 16, the CIN 2 regression rate at the 12-month follow-up was 61.4% versus 89.5% for other HPV types or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). The CIN 2 regression rate was 68.3% for women who tested positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA versus 82.0% for the negative results, but this difference was not statistically significant. The expectant management for women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 and previous cytological tests showing LSIL exhibited a very high rate of spontaneous regression. HPV 16 is associated with a higher CIN 2 progression rate than other HPV infections. HPV E6/E7 mRNA is not a prognostic marker of the CIN 2 clinical outcome, although this analysis cannot be considered conclusive. Given the small sample size, this study could be considered a pilot for future larger studies on the role of predictive markers of CIN 2 evolution.

Predictive Value Of Phase I Trials For Safety In Later Trials And Final Approved Dose: Analysis Of 61 Approved Cancer Drugs.

Phase I trials use a small number of patients to define a maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and the safety of new agents. We compared data from phase I and registration trials to determine whether early trials predicted later safety and final dose. We searched the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website for drugs approved in nonpediatric cancers (January 1990-October 2012). The recommended phase II dose (R2PD) and toxicities from phase I were compared with doses and safety in later trials. In 62 of 85 (73%) matched trials, the dose from the later trial was within 20% of the RP2D. In a multivariable analysis, phase I trials of targeted agents were less predictive of the final approved dose (OR, 0.2 for adopting ± 20% of the RP2D for targeted vs. other classes; P = 0.025). Of the 530 clinically relevant toxicities in later trials, 70% (n = 374) were described in phase I. A significant relationship (P = 0.0032) between increasing the number of patients in phase I (up to 60) and the ability to describe future clinically relevant toxicities was observed. Among 28,505 patients in later trials, the death rate that was related to drug was 1.41%. In conclusion, dosing based on phase I trials was associated with a low toxicity-related death rate in later trials. The ability to predict relevant toxicities correlates with the number of patients on the initial phase I trial. The final dose approved was within 20% of the RP2D in 73% of assessed trials.

Value Of Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy In Papillary Thyroid Cancer: Initial Results Of A Prospective Trial.

The objectives of the study were to evaluate the performance of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in detecting occult metastases in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and to correlate their presence to tumor and patient characteristics. Twenty-three clinically node-negative PTC patients (21 females, mean age 48.4 years) were prospectively enrolled. Patients were submitted to sentinel lymph node (SLN) lymphoscintigraphy prior to total thyroidectomy. Ultrasound-guided peritumoral injections of (99m)Tc-phytate (7.4 MBq) were performed. Cervical single-photon emission computed tomography and computed tomography (SPECT/CT) images were acquired 15 min after radiotracer injection and 2 h prior to surgery. Intra-operatively, SLNs were located with a gamma probe and removed along with non-SLNs located in the same neck compartment. Papillary thyroid carcinoma, SLNs and non-SLNs were submitted to histopathology analysis. Sentinel lymph nodes were located in levels: II in 34.7 % of patients; III in 26 %; IV in 30.4 %; V in 4.3 %; VI in 82.6 % and VII in 4.3 %. Metastases in the SLN were noted in seven patients (30.4 %), in non-SLN in three patients (13.1 %), and in the lateral compartments in 20 % of patients. There were significant associations between lymph node (LN) metastases and the presence of angio-lymphatic invasion (p = 0.04), extra-thyroid extension (p = 0.03) and tumor size (p = 0.003). No correlations were noted among LN metastases and patient age, gender, stimulated thyroglobulin levels, positive surgical margins, aggressive histology and multifocal lesions. Sentinel lymph node biopsy can detect occult metastases in PTC. The risk of a metastatic SLN was associated with extra-thyroid extension, larger tumors and angio-lymphatic invasion. This may help guide future neck dissection, patient surveillance and radioiodine therapy doses.

The Value Of Audiovisual Archives.

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