Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Geomorphic Impacts of the 2013 Colorado Front Range Flood on Black Canyon Creek and North Fork Big Thompson River

In September 2013, the Colorado Front Range experienced a five-day storm that brought record-breaking precipitation to the region. As a consequence, many Front Range streams experienced flooding, leading to erosion, debris flows, bank failures and channel incision. I compare the effects that debris flows and flooding have on the channel bar frequency, frequency and location of wood accumulation, and on the shape and size of the channel along two flood impacted reaches located near Estes Park and Glen Haven, Colorado within Rocky Mountain National Park and Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest: Black Canyon Creek (BCC) and North Fork Big Thompson River (NFBT). The primary difference between the two study areas is that BCC was inundated by multiple debris flows, whereas NFBT only experienced flooding. Fieldwork consisted of recording location and size of large wood and channel bars and surveying reaches to produce cross-sections. Additional observations were made on bank failures in NFBT and the presence of boulders in channel bars in BCC to determine sediment source. The debris flow acted to scour and incise BCC causing long-term alteration. The post-flood channel cross-sectional area is as much as 7 to 23 times larger than the pre-flood channel, caused by the erosion of the channel bed to bedrock and the elimination of riparian vegetation. Large wood was forced out of the stream channel and deposited outside of the bankfull channel. Flooding in NFBT caused bank erosion and widening that contributed sediment to channel bars, but accomplished little stream-bed scour. As a result, there was relatively little damage to mid-channel and riparian vegetation, and most large wood remained within the wetted channel.

Storm cycles in the last millennium recorded in Yongshu Reef, southern South China Sea

Large storm-relocated Porites coral blocks are widespread on the reef flats of Nansha area, southern South China Sea. Detailed investigations of coral reef ecology, geomorphology and sedimentation on Yongshu Reef indicate that such storm-relocated blocks originated from large Porites lutea corals growing on the spurs within the reef-front living coral zone. Because the coral reef has experienced sustained subsidence and reef development during the Holocene, dead corals were continuously covered by newly growing coral colonies. For this reason, the coral blocks must have been relocated by storms from the living sites and therefore the ages of these storm-relocated corals should approximate the times when the storms occurred. Rapid emplacement of these blocks is also evidenced by the lack of coral overgrowth, encrustation or subtidal alteration. U-series dating of the storm-relocated blocks as well as of in situ reef flat corals suggests that, during the last 1000 years, at least six strong storms occurred in 1064 +/- 30, 1210 +/- 5-1201 +/- 4, 1336 +/- 9, 1443 +/- 9, 1685 +/- 8-1680 +/- 6, 1872 +/- 15 AD, respectively, with an average 160-year cycle (110-240 years). The last storm, which occurred in 1872 15 AD, also led to mortality of the reef flat corals dated at similar to 130 years ago. Thus, the storm had significant impacts on coral reef ecology and morphology. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of the 23 October 2002 dust storm on the air quality of four Australian cities

Widespread drought and record maximum temperatures in eastern Australia produced a large dust storm on 23 October, 2002 which traversed a large proportion of eastern Australia and engulfed communities along a 2000 km stretch of coastline from south of Sydney ( NSW) to north of Mackay ( Queensland). This event provided an opportunity for a study of the impacts of rural dust upon the air quality of four Australian cities. A simple model is used to predict dust concentrations, dust deposition rates and particle size characteristics of the airborne dust in the cities. The total dust load of the plume was 3.35 to 4.85 million tones, and assuming a ( conservative) plume height of 1500 m, 62 - 90% of this dust load was deposited in-transit to the coast. It is conservatively estimated that 3.5, 12.0, 2.1 and 1.7 kilotonnes of dust were deposited during the event in Sydney, Brisbane, Gladstone and Mackay, respectively. In the South East Queensland region, this deposition is equivalent to 40% of the total annual TSP emissions for the region. The event increased TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations and reduced the visibility beyond the health and amenity guidelines in the four cities. For example, the 24-h average PM10 concentrations in Brisbane and Mackay, were 161 and 475 mu g m(-3) respectively, compared with the Australian national ambient air quality standard of 50 mu g m(-3). The 24-h average PM2.5 concentration in Brisbane was 42 mu g m(-3), compared with the national advisory standard of 25 mu g m(-3). These rural dusts significantly increased PM10/TSP ratios and decreased PM2.5/PM10 ratios, indicating that most of the particles were between PM2.5 and PM10.

Surface wave and storm surge prediction during Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was the largest storm on historical record in the Atlantic Ocean basin with extensive coastal damage caused by large waves and high storm surge. The primary objectives of this thesis are to compare and evaluate three different spatially-varying surface wind fields of Hurricane Sandy to investigate the impact of the differences between the complex wind fields on predictions of the sea surface evolution, and to evaluate the impact of the storm on the hydrodynamics in Great South Bay (GSB) and the discharge of ocean water into the back-barrier bay from overwash over Fire Island. Three different spatially-varying surface wind fields were evaluated and compared to wind observations, including the parametric Holland (1980) model (H80), the parametric Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM), and results from the WeatherFlow Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (WRAMS). The winds were used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and ocean wave models on a regional grid. The results indicate that the WRAMS wind field produces wave model predictions in the best agreement with significant wave height observations, followed by the GAHM and H80 wind fields and that a regional atmospheric wind model is best for hindcasting hurricane waves and water levels when detailed observations are available, while a parametric vortex model is best for forecasting hurricane sea surface conditions. Using a series of four connected Delft3D-SWAN grids to achieve finer resolution over Fire Island and GSB, a higher resolution WRAMS was used to predict waves and storm surge. The results indicate that strong local winds have the largest influence on water level fluctuations in GSB. Three numerical solutions were conducted with varying extents of barrier island overwash. The simulations allowing for minor and major overwash indicated good agreement with observations in the east end of GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to GSB during the storm. Limiting the overwash in the numerical model directly impacts the total discharge into GSB from the ocean through existing inlets. The results of this study indicate that barrier island overwash had a significant impact on the water levels in eastern GSB.

Water Quality Impacts due to the Addition of Biosolids-Derived Compost to Bioretention

Bioretention is a common stormwater control measure (SCM). While compost, combined with other bioretention soil media (BSM), has the potential for increased pollutant and water uptake and storage, it also may leach harmful nutrients. Limited information is available on the use of compost in SCMs. Therefore, this project seeks to analyze the impacts of the addition of biosolids-derived compost to bioretention. To accomplish this, bioretention mesocosm column studies were conducted to determine the leaching effects of 15%, 30%, and 30% tap water-washed compost, mixed with standard BSM. Synthetic storm runoff was applied to the columns and the effluent was analyzed for total nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and their speciation. All three columns leached N and P with maximum total N concentrations of 2,200, 2,100, and 300 mg-N/L and total P concentrations of 12, 4.9, and 4.6 mg-P/L for the 30%, 15%, and 30% washed mesocosms, respectively. Therefore, based on this study, it is not recommended that biosolids-derived compost be added to bioretention media.

Guidelines on building design and operation to minimize air quality impacts from major roads in transit oriented development

Poor air quality has a huge detrimental effect, both economic and on the quality of life, in Australia. Transit oriented design (TOD), which aims to minimise urban sprawl and lower dependency on vehicles, leads to an increasing number of buildings close to transport corridors. This project aims at providing guidelines that are appropriate to include within City Plan to inform future planning along road corridors, and provide recommendations on when mitigation measures should be utilised.

Enterprise resources planning systems impacts: A Delphi study of Australian public sector

The business value of Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERP systems), and in general large software implementations, has been extensively debated in both popular press and in the academic literature for over two decades. Organisations invest enormous sums of money and resources in Enterprise Resource Planning systems (and related infrastructure), presumably expecting positive impacts to the organisation and its functions. Some studies have reported large productivity improvements and substantial benefits from ERP systems, while others have reported that ERP systems have not had any bottom-line impact. This paper discusses initial findings from a study that focuses on identifying and assessing important ERP impacts in 23 Australian public sector organizations.