Opções reais em projetos de investimentos: o caso de uma planta de liquefação de gás natural com flexibilidade de troca de mercado e de troca de produto

O objetivo deste trabalho é revisar os principais aspectos teóricos para a aplicação de Opções Reais em avaliação de projetos de investimento e analisar, sob esta metodologia, um caso real de projeto para investir na construção de uma Planta de Liquefação de gás natural. O estudo do caso real considerou a Opção de Troca de Mercado, ao avaliar a possibilidade de colocação de cargas spot de GNL em diferentes mercados internacionais e a Opção de Troca de Produto, devido à flexibilidade gerencial de não liquefazer o gás natural, deixando de comercializar GNL no mercado internacional e passando a vender gás natural seco no mercado doméstico. Para a valoração das Opções Reais foi verificado, através da série histórica dos preços de gás natural, que o Movimento Geométrico Browniano não é rejeitado e foram utilizadas simulações de Monte Carlo do processo estocástico neutro ao risco dos preços. O valor da Opção de Troca de Mercado fez o projeto estudado mais que dobrar de valor, sendo reduzido com o aumento da correlação dos preços. Por outro lado, o valor da Opção de Troca de Produto é menos relevante, mas também pode atingir valores significativos com o incremento de sua volatilidade. Ao combinar as duas opções simultaneamente, foi verificado que as mesmas não são diretamente aditivas e que o efeito do incremento da correlação dos preços, ao contrário do que ocorre na Opção de Troca de Mercado, é inverso na Opção de Troca de Produto, ou seja, o derivativo aumenta de valor com uma maior correlação, apesar do valor total das opções integradas diminuir.

Uma análise comparativa da regulação de gás natural entre os mercados do Brasil e dos Estados Unidos

O trabalho tem o objetivo de comparar os principais elementos dos regimes regulatórios do setor do gás natural no Brasil e dos Estados Unidos. Após conduzir a caracterização dos dois regimes, o estudo passa a compará-los e identificar potenciais sinergias e distinções. Para tanto, em uma primeira etapa, são descritos os principais componentes dos mecanismos legais de regulação de cada país. Em seguida, alguns dos componentes identificados são comparados. Finalmente, a última seção se dedica a elencar breves conclusões sobre a comparação entre os mecanismos de regulação do setor de gás dos dois países.

Gás natural

A FGV Energia tomou a iniciativa de liderar o debate, visando obter propostas e alternativas construtivas para um setor de gás sustentável no Brasil. Através do questionamento crítico da sua equipe de pesquisadores e de entrevistas, realizadas ao longo de seis meses com especialistas e líderes do setor, a FGV Energia elaborou um quadro abrangente sobre os principais temas que vêm impactando o desenvolvimento do setor e as principais preocupações dos agentes investidores. Existe uma quase unanimidade e convergência, entre todos os agentes ouvidos, sobre a necessidade de um planejamento integrado e participativo para o setor, e a urgência em se elaborar uma agenda prática e construtiva.

Leilões de exploração e produção de petróleo e gás natural no Brasil

O primeiro Caderno FGV Energia reúne análises e estudos de especialistas da Fundação Getulio Vargas e da indústria sobre os leilões de exploração e produção (E&P) de petróleo e gás no Brasil. Os capítulos apresentam as análises e os pontos de vista de seus respectivos autores sobre assuntos específicos relacionados ao tema principal.

Atração e retenção de talentos em empresas de engenharia consultiva no setor de petróleo e gás natural da cidade de Natal

This study addresses the question of attraction and retention of talent in companies that produce engineering projects in the area of oil and natural gas in the city of Natal. The objectives were to identify the mechanisms that these companies use to attract and retain talented professionals and what the relationship between these practices and performance of these organizations in the market. This is a case study of a qualitative nature which were included in the fullness of companies that work in that class in the capital Potiguar. Have been applied to the managers of these companies structured questionnaires with eleven issues orientativas based on theoretical reference adopted. The research finds that managers understand the word "talent", recognize the importance of the appreciation of its employees and the development of their innate abilities to better organizational performance, much due to the fact they are acting in a market of fierce competition. His companies - though not submit the formal procedures related to the subject in question - have mechanisms that can be characterized as the attraction and retention of talent. The relationships identified in this study are consistent with the results found in other studies and put the information here can serve as the basis for that other managers, including other areas, to reach excellence in their respective industries

Avaliação da dolomita funcionalizada para remoção de H2S em gás natural

The natural gas is an alternative source of energy which is found underground in porous and permeable rocks and being associated or not to the oil. Its basic composition includes methane, other hydrocarbon and compounds such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen, sulphidric gas, mercaptans, water and solid particles. In this work, the dolomite mineral, a double carbonate of calcium and magnesium whose the chemical formula is CaMg(CO3)2, was evaluated as adsorbent material. The material was characterized by granulometric analysis, X-ray fluorescence, X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis, differential thermal analysis, specific surface area, porosity, scanning electronic microscopy and infrared spectroscopy. Then the material was functionalized with diethanolamine (dolomite+diethanolamine) and diisopropylamine (dolomite+diisopropylamine). The results indicated that the adsorbents presented appropriate physiochemical characteristics for H2S adsorption. The adsorption tests were accomplished in a system coupled to a gas chromatograph and the H2S monitoring in the output of the system was accomplished by a pulsed flame photometric detector (PFPD). The adsorbents presented a significant adsorption capacity. Among the analyzed adsorbents, the dolomite+diethanolamine presented the best capacity of adsorption. The breakthrough curves obtained proved the efficiency of this process

Estudo e implementação de algoritmos inteligentes para detecção e classificação de falhas na medição de gás natural

This master dissertation presents the study and implementation of inteligent algorithms to monitor the measurement of sensors involved in natural gas custody transfer processes. To create these algoritmhs Artificial Neural Networks are investigated because they have some particular properties, such as: learning, adaptation, prediction. A neural predictor is developed to reproduce the sensor output dynamic behavior, in such a way that its output is compared to the real sensor output. A recurrent neural network is used for this purpose, because of its ability to deal with dynamic information. The real sensor output and the estimated predictor output work as the basis for the creation of possible sensor fault detection and diagnosis strategies. Two competitive neural network architectures are investigated and their capabilities are used to classify different kinds of faults. The prediction algorithm and the fault detection classification strategies, as well as the obtained results, are presented

Sistemas de medição de desempenho para projetos de PD&I no Setor de Petróleo e Gás Natural

Organizations are seeking new ideas, tools and methods aiming to improve management process and performance. On the other hand, system performance measurement needs to portray organizational changes and provide managers with a set of true and more appropriate information for the decision-making process. This work aims to propose a performance measurement system in the academic field regarding Research, Development and Innovation (RDI) in the oil and gas industry. The research performed a bibliographic review in a descriptive exploratory manner. A field research was conducted with an expert focus group in order to gather new indicators. As for the validation of these indicators, a survey with experienced professional was also realized. The research surveyed four segments in and outside of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte-Brazil such as oil and gas project coordinators, staff at Academic Planning Offices, FUNPEC employees as well as coordinators from Petrobrás. The performance measuring system created from this study features three interrelated performance indicators pointed out as: process indicators, outcome indicators and global indicators. The proposal includes performance indicators that seek to establish more appropriate strategies for effective institution management. It might help policy making of university-industry interaction policies

O princípio constitucional da redução das desigualdades regionais e o transporte de gás natural

In a country of continental dimensions as Brazil, one of the top challenges to its economic growth is the logistic related to energetical demand supply. We live now in the era of environmental protection and, in this new context of priorizations, it passes trough the search for alternative energies for the energetic matrix, due the petroleum elevated costs in the global market (and its finitude), but also due its pollution over the environment. This attempt of substitution needs solutions related to the national reality, into a national long term developing plan and based at a juridical-economic analysis of its realization. This study will look for, also based in an economical analysis, the juridical legitimity of choosing natural gas as the new protagonist of national economic growth (as a substitute of petroleum) and the necessary boost that must be done by law, based on an economic policy focused strictly for that fact, as a modifying agent of this reality. This study, therefore, will always be turned to a constitutional aspect, respecting the principles of economic order and the goal of reducing regional inequalities, which must influence the making off of a developing plan. At the end, it will try to demonstrate the juridical viability of such undertaking, tuned in jus-economical criteria. Another goal is related to the analysis of the natural gas industry, due the regulation of its transport has a major importance for national energetic integration, not only because this activity be characterized as a net industry, still under control of a natural monopoly, but also because the competitive or cooperative profile that should be priorized at the beginning of the economic planning for this activity (such as investment policies and its own rules that will submit private agents)

Regulação do livre acesso no transporte de gás natural à luz da ordem econômica da Constituição de 1988

In the middle of modern social changes produced by globalization and capitalism, several markets have changed. States have left the direct coordination of these markets (chiefly public utility sector in the form of monopolies), introducing regulation in order to promote competition. These changes have affected natural gas industry by promoting competition as a key factor to the development and the increase of firms in this market. The regulatory reform of natural gas industry ocurred in EUA and Europe Union and it has produced its first results. In Brazilian context, Constitutional Amendment nbr. 09 and Federal Law nbr. 9.478/97 ( Petroleum Law ) opened the natural gas market to a broad range of private economic agents and they finished the monopoly over the industry before managed by Petrobras. The new regulatory framework of Brazilian natural gas industry has designed competition as a central element to the new form of managment of business and contractual relationships of this industry. Among the regulatory instruments, open access regulation in natural gas pipelines is directed to promote competition. The questions arised about its implementation in Brazilian context are studied in the present work, in which it is discussed the constitutional rules and principles are to be applied to the open access regulation within the theme of statal regulation of economy present in constitutional economic order

O impacto do pagamento da participação sobre a produção de petróleo e gás natural sobre a renda familiar e a propriedade no Município de Governador Dix-Sept Rosado no período de 1998 a 2004

This scientific study deals about the oil and natural gas production participation payment impact in the county of Governador Dix-sept Rosado, Rio Grande do Norte, between 1998 to 2004, applied to family income and property. To do so, this analysis focus on the ricardian´s theory exposition which merges from the concept of the mineral income, in concern to the legal establishment of royalties. This paper also shows the world evolution oil exploration, inserting Brazil in this scene as a oil and natural gas producter. It identifies the productive site of oil and natural gas in Rio Grande do Norte as the Potiguar Oil Area, characterizing its components in the demographic, physical and social aspects, to reflect in the focus point of observation which is the Governador Dix-sept Rosado county. The participation payment on oil and natural gas is demonstrated in a qualitative analysis both in Brazil as in Rio Grande do Norte. The payments given to the land owners in this federative unity are shown in the period of analysis of this essay. The study tells, based in a field research, the benefaction impact of the payment to the land owners over the income and property. The family income were highly impacted, causing economic social classes change to some land owners. The property had less or none impact. It was found negative externalities as the income utilization to other county uses, not causing a multiplier effect in the studied county. The fact of the not utilization of the properties on productive investments in order to supply the finite characteristic of oil and this source of royalties, contradicts one of the reasons of its establishment which is the payment for its productive exhaustion of a land resource

Fatores de decisão da adoção do gás natural na geração de energia elétrica em pequena escala em postos de combustíveis: um estudo de anális de decusão usando o processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

A modeling of criterias and alternatives is through and applied a questionnaire based on method AHP to proprietors of gas stations. The considered alternatives had been the maintenance of the current state with electric energy of the deliverer and the generation in small scale based on the natural gas. The used criteria had been Cost of the Investment, Final Cost of the Energy, Operational cost, Ambient Benefits, Risk and Variation of Costs. The study it was carried through in the city of Natal, RN in ranks that make use of the natural as for resale, where the generation alternative on the basis of the available gas is present. The main results evidence in a dimension the viability of use of method AHP with questionnaire by means of validation of the judgments with analysis of variance beyond proper the normal mechanisms of analysis of consistency to the method. The main results of the analysis help to show that in this in case that the profile of models of criteria and judgments of the actors is similar, with the final evidence of that it has a dominance of the maintenance of the energy of the deliverer. The main criterion to influence this decision was the risk

Critérios na tomada de decisão estratégica em projetos de co-geração a gás natural: um estudo em hospitais

This thesis deals with analyzing the actual perception of the brazilian hospital managers about natural gas fired cogeneration. An study of case is developed to obtain information about the viability of the investments in cogeneration technolgies in four hospitals. These studies are made using a questionnaire, to know and to obtain necessaries data of the managers. The main results shows that the investors have a bad feeling about to invest in a different activity. In other hand, the results show that the investors have a good impression about the configuration of the project that uses the project finance like way of financing

Fator de decisão na adoção de um sistema de micro-cogeração de energia a gás natural :um estudo em Hotéis três estrelas

The natural gas perform a essential paper, not only in primary sectors of energy, but also in others sectors of economy. The use natural gas will have expansion in Brazil, motivated by governmental decision to increase the participation of this fuel in the Brazilian energy matrix from 4% to 12% up until 2010. in order to reach the objective related to increase the consumption of natural gas in the energy matrix and to propose solutions to attend the electric requirements of heart and refrigeration, using natural gas as primary power plant. This thesis has a main objective to analysis the perception of businessmen of hotel sector about the feasability of investment with micro-cogeneration system by natural gas in their hotel in turistic sector, in Natal/RN. It s show a case for the hotels selected analyzing the actual knowledge of businessmen about alternative of new technology in generation of owner energy. There was make a interview using a standard form researching information about this topic. In this interview has shown 4 (four) canaries for businessmen with different configurations of investment in micro-cogeneration. Two of this canaries uses the project finance like option to make fasible this projects. The resulteis showed who businessmen has insecurity to make decision to put in office alone, or with a local company, and perhaps with a national company to perform for a alternative energy system, justifying, the alone feasability and without information by local businessmen. Apart from that, they are receptive for a option to put in office in micro-cogeneration configured in the settings using project finance

Software inteligente embarcado aplicado à correção de erro na medição de vazão em gás natural

This study developed software rotines, in a system made basically from a processor board producer of signs and supervisory, wich main function was correcting the information measured by a turbine gas meter. This correction is based on the use of an intelligent algorithm formed by an artificial neural net. The rotines were implemented in the habitat of the supervisory as well as in the habitat of the DSP and have three main itens: processing, communication and supervision