Lesser Scaup Population Dynamics: What Can Be Learned from Available Data?

Populations of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) have declined markedly in North America since the early 1980s. When considering alternatives for achieving population recovery, it would be useful to understand how the rate of population growth is functionally related to the underlying vital rates and which vital rates affect population growth rate the most if changed (which need not be those that influenced historical population declines). To establish a more quantitative basis for learning about life history and population dynamics of Lesser Scaup, we summarized published and unpublished estimates of vital rates recorded between 1934 and 2005, and developed matrix life-cycle models with these data for females breeding in the boreal forest, prairie-parklands, and both regions combined. We then used perturbation analysis to evaluate the effect of changes in a variety of vital-rate statistics on finite population growth rate and abundance. Similar to Greater Scaup (Aythya marila), our modeled population growth rate for Lesser Scaup was most sensitive to unit and proportional change in adult female survival during the breeding and non-breeding seasons, but much less so to changes in fecundity parameters. Interestingly, population growth rate was also highly sensitive to unit and proportional changes in the mean of nesting success, duckling survival, and juvenile survival. Given the small samples of data for key aspects of the Lesser Scaup life cycle, we recommend additional research on vital rates that demonstrate a strong effect on population growth and size (e.g., adult survival probabilities). Our life-cycle models should be tested and regularly updated in the future to simultaneously guide science and management of Lesser Scaup populations in an adaptive context.

Population Change in a Marine Bird Colony is Driven By Changes in Recruitment

The population dynamics of long-lived birds are thought to be very sensitive to changes in adult survival. However, where natal philopatry is low, recruitment from the larger metapopulation may have the strongest effect on population growth rate even in long-lived species. Here, we illustrate such a situation where changes in a seabird colony size appeared to be the consequence of changes in recruitment. We studied the population dynamics of a declining colony of Ancient Murrelets (Synthliboramphus antiquus) at East Limestone Island, British Columbia. During 1990-2010, Ancient Murrelet chicks were trapped at East Limestone Island while departing to sea, using a standard trapping method carried on throughout the departure period. Adult murrelets were trapped while departing from the colony during 1990-2003. Numbers of chicks trapped declined during 1990-1995, probably because of raccoon predation, increased slightly from 1995-2000 and subsequently declined again. Reproductive success was 30% lower during 2000-2003 than in earlier years, mainly because of an increase in desertions. The proportion of nonbreeders among adult birds trapped at night also declined over the study period. Mortality of adult birds, thought to be mainly prebreeders, from predators more than doubled over the same period. Apparent adult survival of breeders remained constant during 1991-2002 once the first year after banding was excluded, but the apparent survival rates in the first year after banding fell and the survival of birds banded as chicks to age three halved over the same period. A matrix model of population dynamics suggested that even during the early part of the study immigration from other breeding areas must have been substantial, supporting earlier observations that natal philopatry in this species is low. The general colony decline after 2000 probably was related to diminished recruitment, as evidenced by the lower proportion of nonbreeders in the trapped sample. Hence the trend is determined by the recruitment decisions of externally reared birds, rather than demographic factors operating on the local breeding population, an unusual situation for a colonial marine bird. Because of the contraction in the colony it may now be subject to a level of predation pressure from which recovery will be impossible without some form of intervention.

Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.

Two methods for modelling the propagation of terahertz radiation in a layered structure

Modelling the interaction of terahertz(THz) radiation with biological tissueposes many interesting problems. THzradiation is neither obviously described byan electric field distribution or anensemble of photons and biological tissueis an inhomogeneous medium with anelectronic permittivity that is bothspatially and frequency dependent making ita complex system to model.A three-layer system of parallel-sidedslabs has been used as the system throughwhich the passage of THz radiation has beensimulated. Two modelling approaches havebeen developed a thin film matrix model anda Monte Carlo model. The source data foreach of these methods, taken at the sametime as the data recorded to experimentallyverify them, was a THz spectrum that hadpassed though air only.Experimental verification of these twomodels was carried out using athree-layered in vitro phantom. Simulatedtransmission spectrum data was compared toexperimental transmission spectrum datafirst to determine and then to compare theaccuracy of the two methods. Goodagreement was found, with typical resultshaving a correlation coefficient of 0.90for the thin film matrix model and 0.78 forthe Monte Carlo model over the full THzspectrum. Further work is underway toimprove the models above 1 THz.

Measurement of the Viscoelastic Properties of the Vocal Folds

Objectives: Studies of the viscoelastic properties of the vocal folds are normally performed with rheometers that use parallel assigned a fixed value. In tissues subject to variation of thickness plates whose interplate space is usually at between samples, fixed gaps could result in different compressions, compromising the comparison among them. We performed,in experimental study to determine whether different compressions call lead to different results in measurements of dynamic viscosity (DV) of vocal fold samples. Methods: We Measured the DV of vocal fold samples of 10 larynges of cadavers under 3 different compression levels, corresponding to 0.2, 0.5, and 10 N on an 8-mm-diameter parallel-plate rheometer. Results: The DV directly varied with compression. We observed statistically significant differences between the results of 0.2 and 10 N (p = 0.0396) and 0.5 and 10 N (p = 0.0442). Conclusions: The study demonstrated that the level of compression influences the DV measure and Suggests that a defined compression level should be used in rheometric studies of biological tissues.

Social media crises in the organization: exploring management strategies through cases from France and Brazil

The aim of this Master’s thesis has been to shed light on the response strategies that organizations are implementing when facing a crisis created on or amplified by social media. Since the development of social media in the late 1990s, the interplay between the online and the offline spheres has become more complex, and characterized by dynamics of a new magnitude, as exemplified by the wave of “Twitter” Revolutions or the Wikileaks scandal in the mid 2000s, where online behaviors deeply affected an offline reality. The corporate world does not escape to this worldwide phenomenon, and there are more and more examples of organizational reputations destroyed by social media “fireballs”. As such, this research aims to investigate, through the analysis of six recent cases of corporate crises (2013-2015) from France and Brazil, different strategies currently in use in order to identify examples of good and bad practices for companies to adopt or avoid when facing a social media crisis. The first part of this research is dedicated to a review of the literature on crisis management and social media. From that review, we were able to design a matrix model, the Social Media Crisis Management Matrix, with which we analyzed the response strategies of the six companies we selected. This model allows the conceptualization of social media crises in a multidimensional matrix built to allow the choice, according to four parameters, of the most efficient (that is: which will limit the reputational damage) response strategy. Attribution of responsibility for the crisis to the company by stakeholders, the origin of the crisis (internal or external), the degree of reputational threat, and the emotions conveyed online by stakeholders help companies determining whether to adopt a defensive response, or an accommodative response. The results of the analysis suggest that social media crises are rather manichean objects for they are, unlike their traditional offline counterparts, characterized by emotional involvement and irrationality, and cannot be dealt with traditionally. Thus analyzing the emotions of stakeholders proved to be, in these cases, an accurate thermometer of the seriousness of the crisis, and as such, a better rudder to follow when selecting a response strategy. Consequently, in the cases, companies minimized their reputational damage when responding to their stakeholders in an accommodative way, regardless of the “objective” situation, which might be a change of paradigm in crisis management.

Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Modelagem dinâmica de transformadores de corrente para uso em estudos de qualidade da energia e proteção do sistema elétrico

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEB

Análise teórica e experimental vibro-acústica utilizando a técnica de matrizes compactas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Influência da esterilização cirúrgica na população canina de área endêmica para Leishmaniose visceral

Pós-graduação em Ciência Animal - FMVA

Three dimensional Lifshitz black hole and the Korteweg-de Vries equation

We consider a solution of three dimensional New Massive Gravity with a negative cosmological constant and use the AdS/CTF correspondence to inquire about the equivalent two dimensional model at the boundary. We conclude that there should be a close relation of the theory with the Korteweg-de Vries equation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V..All rights reserved.

Treatment With Methotrexate Inhibits Atherogenesis in Cholesterol-Fed Rabbits

A decrease in the number of cardiovascular events in patients with rheumatoid arthritis or psoriasis treated with methotrexate (MTX) has been observed in the literature. The aim of this study was to test whether MTX could promote anti-inflammatory effects and reduce the atherosclerotic lesions in rabbits with atherosclerosis induced by cholesterol feeding. Twenty male New Zealand rabbits were fed a 1% cholesterol diet for 60 days. Starting from day 30 of cholesterol feeding, 10 animals were treated with 4 weekly intravenous injections of MTX (4 mg/kg) and 10 with 4 weekly saline solution injections for 30 days. MTX reduced the size of the lesion areas of cholesterol-fed animals by 75% and intima-media ratio 2- fold. The drug inhibited macrophage migration into the intima by 50% and the presence of apoptotic cells by 84% but did not inhibit the intimal proliferation of smooth muscle cells. MTX treatment also diminished the positive staining area of metalloproteinase 9 in the intima, which is probably beneficial. In the tumor necrosis factor-alpha-treated human umbilical vein endothelial cell line, incubation with MTX led to downregulation of 5 pro-inflammatory genes, TNF-alpha, VAP-1, IL-1 beta, CXCL2, and TLR2, and upregulation of the antiinflammatory TGF-beta 1 gene, thus showing endothelium-protective properties. In conclusion, MTX showed direct in vivo anti-atherosclerotic action and may have potential in the treatment of this disorder.

Herbivores differentially limit the seedling growth and sapling recruitment of two dominant rain forest trees

Resource heterogeneity may influence how plants are attacked and respond to consumers in multiple ways. Perhaps a better understanding of how this interaction might limit sapling recruitment in tree populations may be achieved by examining species’ functional responses to herbivores on a continuum of resource availability. Here, we experimentally reduced herbivore pressure on newly established seedlings of two dominant masting trees in 40 canopy gaps, across c. 80 ha of tropical rain forest in central Africa (Korup, Cameroon). Mesh cages were built to protect individual seedlings, and their leaf production and changes in height were followed for 22 months. With more light, herbivores increasingly prevented the less shade-tolerant Microberlinia bisulcata from growing as tall as it could and producing more leaves, indicating an undercompensation. The more shade-tolerant Tetraberlinia bifoliolata was much less affected by herbivores, showing instead near to full compensation for leaf numbers, and a negligible to weak impact of herbivores on its height growth. A stage-matrix model that compared control and caged populations lent evidence for a stronger impact of herbivores on the long-term population dynamics of M. bisulcata than T. bifoliolata. Our results suggest that insect herbivores can contribute to the local coexistence of two abundant tree species at Korup by disproportionately suppressing sapling recruitment of the faster-growing dominant via undercompensation across the light gradient created by canopy disturbances. The functional patterns we have documented here are consistent with current theory, and, because gap formations are integral to forest regeneration, they may be more widely applicable in other tropical forest communities. If so, the interaction between life-history and herbivore impact across light gradients may play a substantial role in tree species coexistence.

Design of a systematic approach to workplace exposure medical surveillance protocols

Current toxic tort cases have increased national awareness of health concerns and present an important avenue in which public health scientists can perform a vital function: in litigation, and in public health initiatives and promotions which may result. This review presents a systematic approach, using the paradigm of interactive public health disciplines, for the design of a matrix framework for medical surveillance of workers exposed to toxic substances. The matrix framework design addresses the required scientific bases to support the legal remedy of medical monitoring for workers injured as a result of their exposure to toxic agents. A background of recent legal developments which have a direct impact on the use of scientific expertise in litigation is examined in the context of toxic exposure litigation and the attainment of public health goals. The matrix model is applied to five different workplace exposures: dental mercury, firefighting, vinyl chloride manufacture, radon in mining and silica. An exposure matrix designed by the Department of Energy for government nuclear workers is included as a reference comparison to the design matrix. ^

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.