Jämförande studier av råvattenkvaliteten och reningskostnaderna i Sverige och Finland

English summary: Comparative studies on raw water quality and treatment costs in Sweden and Finland

Real-Time PCR : A Molecular Approach to Investigate the Role of Intestinal Microbiota in the Pathophysiology of Irritable Bowel Syndrome

Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common multifactorial functional intestinal disorder, the pathogenesis of which is not completely understood. Increasing scientific evidence suggests that microbes are involved in the onset and maintenance of IBS symptoms. The microbiota of the human gastrointestinal (GI) tract constitutes a massive and complex ecosystem consisting mainly of obligate anaerobic microorganisms making the use of culture-based methods demanding and prone to misinterpretation. To overcome these drawbacks, an extensive panel of species- and group-specific assays for an accurate quantification of bacteria from fecal samples with real-time PCR was developed, optimized, and validated. As a result, the target bacteria were detectable at a minimum concentration range of approximately 10 000 bacterial genomes per gram of fecal sample, which corresponds to the sensitivity to detect 0.000001% subpopulations of the total fecal microbiota. The real-time PCR panel covering both commensal and pathogenic microorganisms was assessed to compare the intestinal microbiota of patients suffering from IBS with a healthy control group devoid of GI symptoms. Both the IBS and control groups showed considerable individual variation in gut microbiota composition. Sorting of the IBS patients according to the symptom subtypes (diarrhea, constipation, and alternating predominant type) revealed that lower amounts of Lactobacillus spp. were present in the samples of diarrhea predominant IBS patients, whereas constipation predominant IBS patients carried increased amounts of Veillonella spp. In the screening of intestinal pathogens, 17% of IBS samples tested positive for Staphylococcus aureus, whereas no positive cases were discovered among healthy controls. Furthermore, the methodology was applied to monitor the effects of a multispecies probiotic supplementation on GI microbiota of IBS sufferers. In the placebo-controlled double-blind probiotic intervention trial of IBS patients, each supplemented probiotic strain was detected in fecal samples. Intestinal microbiota remained stable during the trial, except for Bifidobacterium spp., which increased in the placebo group and decreased in the probiotic group. The combination of assays developed and applied in this thesis has an overall coverage of 300-400 known bacterial species, along with the number of yet unknown phylotypes. Hence, it provides good means for studying the intestinal microbiota, irrespective of the intestinal condition and health status. In particular, it allows screening and identification of microbes putatively associated with IBS. The alterations in the gut microbiota discovered here support the hypothesis that microbes are likely to contribute to the pathophysiology of IBS. The central question is whether the microbiota changes described represent the cause for, rather than the effect of, disturbed gut physiology. Therefore, more studies are needed to determine the role and importance of individual microbial species or groups in IBS. In addition, it is essential that the microbial alterations observed in this study will be confirmed using a larger set of IBS samples of different subtypes, preferably from various geographical locations.

PERFECT Stroke : PERFormance, Effectiveness, and Costs of treatment episodes in Stroke

Stroke is a major cause of death and disability, incurs significant costs to healthcare systems, and inflicts severe burden to the whole society. Stroke care in Finland has been described in several population-based studies between 1967 and 1998, but not since. In the PERFECT Stroke study presented here, a system for monitoring the Performance, Effectiveness, and Costs of Treatment episodes in Stroke was developed in Finland. Existing nationwide administrative registries were linked at individual patient level with personal identification numbers to depict whole episodes of care, from acute stroke, through rehabilitation, until the patients went home, were admitted to permanent institutional care, or died. For comparisons in time and between providers, patient case-mix was adjusted for. The PERFECT Stroke database includes 104 899 first-ever stroke patients over the years 1999 to 2008, of whom 79% had ischemic stroke (IS), 14% intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 7% subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). A 18% decrease in the age and sex adjusted incidence of stroke was observed over the study period, 1.8% improvement annually. All-cause 1-year case-fatality rate improved from 28.6% to 24.6%, or 0.5% annually. The expected median lifetime after stroke increased by 2 years for IS patients, to 7 years and 7 months, and by 1 year for ICH patients, to 4 years 5 months. No change could be seen in median SAH patient survival, >10 years. Stroke prevalence was 82 000, 1.5% of total population of Finland, in 2008. Modern stroke center care was shown to be associated with a decrease in both death and risk of institutional care of stroke patients. Number needed to treat to prevent these poor outcomes at one year from stroke was 32 (95% confidence intervals 26 to 42). Despite improvements over the study period, more than a third of Finnish stroke patients did not have access to stroke center care. The mean first-year healthcare cost of a stroke patient was ~20 000 , and among survivors ~10 000 annually thereafter. Only part of this cost was incurred by stroke, as the same patients cost ~5000 over the year prior to stroke. Total lifetime costs after first-ever stroke were ~85 000 . A total of 1.1 Billion , 7% of all healthcare expenditure, is used in the treatment of stroke patients annually. Despite a rapidly aging population, the number of new stroke patients is decreasing, and the patients are more likely to survive. This is explained in part by stroke center care, which is effective, and should be made available for all stroke patients. It is possible, in a suitable setting with high-quality administrative registries and a common identifier, to avoid the huge workload and associated costs of setting up a conventional stroke registry, and still acquire a fairly comprehensive dataset on stroke care and outcome.

Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Viemärilaitokset 31.12.1972

Water works and sewage plants 31.12.1974.