Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Ein inverses Problem für die degeneriert parabolische Richardsgleichung

In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden zwei physikalischeFließexperimente an Vliesstoffen untersucht, die dazu dienensollen, unbekannte hydraulische Parameter des Materials, wiez. B. die Diffusivitäts- oder Leitfähigkeitsfunktion, ausMeßdaten zu identifizieren. Die physikalische undmathematische Modellierung dieser Experimente führt auf einCauchy-Dirichlet-Problem mit freiem Rand für die degeneriertparabolische Richardsgleichung in derSättigungsformulierung, das sogenannte direkte Problem. Ausder Kenntnis des freien Randes dieses Problems soll dernichtlineare Diffusivitätskoeffizient derDifferentialgleichung rekonstruiert werden. Für diesesinverse Problem stellen wir einOutput-Least-Squares-Funktional auf und verwenden zu dessenMinimierung iterative Regularisierungsverfahren wie dasLevenberg-Marquardt-Verfahren und die IRGN-Methode basierendauf einer Parametrisierung des Koeffizientenraumes durchquadratische B-Splines. Für das direkte Problem beweisen wirunter anderem Existenz und Eindeutigkeit der Lösung desCauchy-Dirichlet-Problems sowie die Existenz des freienRandes. Anschließend führen wir formal die Ableitung desfreien Randes nach dem Koeffizienten, die wir für dasnumerische Rekonstruktionsverfahren benötigen, auf einlinear degeneriert parabolisches Randwertproblem zurück.Wir erläutern die numerische Umsetzung und Implementierungunseres Rekonstruktionsverfahrens und stellen abschließendRekonstruktionsergebnisse bezüglich synthetischer Daten vor.

Inverse problems in classical and quantum physics

The subject of this thesis is in the area of Applied Mathematics known as Inverse Problems. Inverse problems are those where a set of measured data is analysed in order to get as much information as possible on a model which is assumed to represent a system in the real world. We study two inverse problems in the fields of classical and quantum physics: QCD condensates from tau-decay data and the inverse conductivity problem. Despite a concentrated effort by physicists extending over many years, an understanding of QCD from first principles continues to be elusive. Fortunately, data continues to appear which provide a rather direct probe of the inner workings of the strong interactions. We use a functional method which allows us to extract within rather general assumptions phenomenological parameters of QCD (the condensates) from a comparison of the time-like experimental data with asymptotic space-like results from theory. The price to be paid for the generality of assumptions is relatively large errors in the values of the extracted parameters. Although we do not claim that our method is superior to other approaches, we hope that our results lend additional confidence to the numerical results obtained with the help of methods based on QCD sum rules. EIT is a technology developed to image the electrical conductivity distribution of a conductive medium. The technique works by performing simultaneous measurements of direct or alternating electric currents and voltages on the boundary of an object. These are the data used by an image reconstruction algorithm to determine the electrical conductivity distribution within the object. In this thesis, two approaches of EIT image reconstruction are proposed. The first is based on reformulating the inverse problem in terms of integral equations. This method uses only a single set of measurements for the reconstruction. The second approach is an algorithm based on linearisation which uses more then one set of measurements. A promising result is that one can qualitatively reconstruct the conductivity inside the cross-section of a human chest. Even though the human volunteer is neither two-dimensional nor circular, such reconstructions can be useful in medical applications: monitoring for lung problems such as accumulating fluid or a collapsed lung and noninvasive monitoring of heart function and blood flow.

Detecting interfaces in a parabolic-elliptic problem from surface measurements

Assuming that the heat capacity of a body is negligible outside certain inclusions the heat equation degenerates to a parabolic-elliptic interface problem. In this work we aim to detect these interfaces from thermal measurements on the surface of the body. We deduce an equivalent variational formulation for the parabolic-elliptic problem and give a new proof of the unique solvability based on Lions’s projection lemma. For the case that the heat conductivity is higher inside the inclusions, we develop an adaptation of the factorization method to this time-dependent problem. In particular this shows that the locations of the interfaces are uniquely determined by boundary measurements. The method also yields to a numerical algorithm to recover the inclusions and thus the interfaces. We demonstrate how measurement data can be simulated numerically by a coupling of a finite element method with a boundary element method, and finally we present some numerical results for the inverse problem.

Direct and inverse transient eddy current problems

Die vorliegende Arbeit behandelt Vorwärts- sowie Rückwärtstheorie transienter Wirbelstromprobleme. Transiente Anregungsströme induzieren elektromagnetische Felder, welche sogenannte Wirbelströme in leitfähigen Objekten erzeugen. Im Falle von sich langsam ändernden Feldern kann diese Wechselwirkung durch die Wirbelstromgleichung, einer Approximation an die Maxwell-Gleichungen, beschrieben werden. Diese ist eine lineare partielle Differentialgleichung mit nicht-glatten Koeffizientenfunktionen von gemischt parabolisch-elliptischem Typ. Das Vorwärtsproblem besteht darin, zu gegebener Anregung sowie den umgebungsbeschreibenden Koeffizientenfunktionen das elektrische Feld als distributionelle Lösung der Gleichung zu bestimmen. Umgekehrt können die Felder mit Messspulen gemessen werden. Das Ziel des Rückwärtsproblems ist es, aus diesen Messungen Informationen über leitfähige Objekte, also über die Koeffizientenfunktion, die diese beschreibt, zu gewinnen. In dieser Arbeit wird eine variationelle Lösungstheorie vorgestellt und die Wohlgestelltheit der Gleichung diskutiert. Darauf aufbauend wird das Verhalten der Lösung für verschwindende Leitfähigkeit studiert und die Linearisierbarkeit der Gleichung ohne leitfähiges Objekt in Richtung des Auftauchens eines leitfähigen Objektes gezeigt. Zur Regularisierung der Gleichung werden Modifikationen vorgeschlagen, welche ein voll parabolisches bzw. elliptisches Problem liefern. Diese werden verifiziert, indem die Konvergenz der Lösungen gezeigt wird. Zuletzt wird gezeigt, dass unter der Annahme von sonst homogenen Umgebungsparametern leitfähige Objekte eindeutig durch die Messungen lokalisiert werden können. Hierzu werden die Linear Sampling Methode sowie die Faktorisierungsmethode angewendet.

An evolutionary algorithm for the surface structure problem

Many macroscopic properties: hardness, corrosion, catalytic activity, etc. are directly related to the surface structure, that is, to the position and chemical identity of the outermost atoms of the material. Current experimental techniques for its determination produce a “signature” from which the structure must be inferred by solving an inverse problem: a solution is proposed, its corresponding signature computed and then compared to the experiment. This is a challenging optimization problem where the search space and the number of local minima grows exponentially with the number of atoms, hence its solution cannot be achieved for arbitrarily large structures. Nowadays, it is solved by using a mixture of human knowledge and local search techniques: an expert proposes a solution that is refined using a local minimizer. If the outcome does not fit the experiment, a new solution must be proposed again. Solving a small surface can take from days to weeks of this trial and error method. Here we describe our ongoing work in its solution. We use an hybrid algorithm that mixes evolutionary techniques with trusted region methods and reuses knowledge gained during the execution to avoid repeated search of structures. Its parallelization produces good results even when not requiring the gathering of the full population, hence it can be used in loosely coupled environments such as grids. With this algorithm, the solution of test cases that previously took weeks of expert time can be automatically solved in a day or two of uniprocessor time.

An inverse optimization strategy to determine single crystal mechanical behavior from polycrystal tests: Application to AZ31 Mg alloy

An inverse optimization strategy was developed to determine the single crystal properties from experimental results of the mechanical behavior of polycrystals. The polycrystal behavior was obtained by means of the finite element simulation of a representative volume element of the microstructure in which the dominant slip and twinning systems were included in the constitutive equation of each grain. The inverse problem was solved by means of the Levenberg-Marquardt method, which provided an excellent fit to the experimental results. The iterative optimization process followed a hierarchical scheme in which simple representative volume elements were initially used, followed by more realistic ones to reach the final optimum solution, leading to important reductions in computer time. The new strategy was applied to identify the initial and saturation critical resolved shear stresses and the hardening modulus of the active slip systems and extension twinning in a textured AZ31 Mg alloy. The results were in general agreement with the data in the literature but also showed some differences. They were partially explained because of the higher accuracy of the new optimization strategy but it was also shown that the number of independent experimental stress-strain curves used as input is critical to reach an accurate solution to the inverse optimization problem. It was concluded that at least three independent stress-strain curves are necessary to determine the single crystal behavior from polycrystal tests in the case of highly textured Mg alloys.

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

An inverse method for designing loaded RF coils in MRI

Radio-frequency ( RF) coils are designed such that they induce homogeneous magnetic fields within some region of interest within a magnetic resonance imaging ( MRI) scanner. Loading the scanner with a patient disrupts the homogeneity of these fields and can lead to a considerable degradation of the quality of the acquired image. In this paper, an inverse method is presented for designing RF coils, in which the presence of a load ( patient) within the MRI scanner is accounted for in the model. To approximate the finite length of the coil, a Fourier series expansion is considered for the coil current density and for the induced fields. Regularization is used to solve this ill-conditioned inverse problem for the unknown Fourier coefficients. That is, the error between the induced and homogeneous target fields is minimized along with an additional constraint, chosen in this paper to represent the curvature of the coil windings. Smooth winding patterns are obtained for both unloaded and loaded coils. RF fields with a high level of homogeneity are obtained in the unloaded case and a limit to the level of homogeneity attainable is observed in the loaded case.

A comparison of different choices for the regularization parameter in inverse electrocardiography models

Calculating the potentials on the heart’s epicardial surface from the body surface potentials constitutes one form of inverse problems in electrocardiography (ECG). Since these problems are ill-posed, one approach is to use zero-order Tikhonov regularization, where the squared norms of both the residual and the solution are minimized, with a relative weight determined by the regularization parameter. In this paper, we used three different methods to choose the regularization parameter in the inverse solutions of ECG. The three methods include the L-curve, the generalized cross validation (GCV) and the discrepancy principle (DP). Among them, the GCV method has received less attention in solutions to ECG inverse problems than the other methods. Since the DP approach needs knowledge of norm of noises, we used a model function to estimate the noise. The performance of various methods was compared using a concentric sphere model and a real geometry heart-torso model with a distribution of current dipoles placed inside the heart model as the source. Gaussian measurement noises were added to the body surface potentials. The results show that the three methods all produce good inverse solutions with little noise; but, as the noise increases, the DP approach produces better results than the L-curve and GCV methods, particularly in the real geometry model. Both the GCV and L-curve methods perform well in low to medium noise situations.

On the numerical solution of a Cauchy problem in an elastostatic half-plane with a bounded inclusion

We propose an iterative procedure for the inverse problem of determining the displacement vector on the boundary of a bounded planar inclusion given the displacement and stress fields on an infinite (planar) line-segment. At each iteration step mixed boundary value problems in an elastostatic half-plane containing the bounded inclusion are solved. For efficient numerical implementation of the procedure these mixed problems are reduced to integral equations over the bounded inclusion. Well-posedness and numerical solution of these boundary integral equations are presented, and a proof of convergence of the procedure for the inverse problem to the original solution is given. Numerical investigations are presented both for the direct and inverse problems, and these results show in particular that the displacement vector on the boundary of the inclusion can be found in an accurate and stable way with small computational cost.

Application of Volterra Equations to Solve Unit Commitment Problem of Optimised Energy Storage and Generation

Development of reliable methods for optimised energy storage and generation is one of the most imminent challenges in modern power systems. In this paper an adaptive approach to load leveling problem using novel dynamic models based on the Volterra integral equations of the first kind with piecewise continuous kernels. These integral equations efficiently solve such inverse problem taking into account both the time dependent efficiencies and the availability of generation/storage of each energy storage technology. In this analysis a direct numerical method is employed to find the least-cost dispatch of available storages. The proposed collocation type numerical method has second order accuracy and enjoys self-regularization properties, which is associated with confidence levels of system demand. This adaptive approach is suitable for energy storage optimisation in real time. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on the Single Electricity Market of Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Some Inverse Problems in Analysis and Geometry

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Geological realism in hydrogeological and geophysical inverse modeling: A review

Scientific curiosity, exploration of georesources and environmental concerns are pushing the geoscientific research community toward subsurface investigations of ever-increasing complexity. This review explores various approaches to formulate and solve inverse problems in ways that effectively integrate geological concepts with geophysical and hydrogeological data. Modern geostatistical simulation algorithms can produce multiple subsurface realizations that are in agreement with conceptual geological models and statistical rock physics can be used to map these realizations into physical properties that are sensed by the geophysical or hydrogeological data. The inverse problem consists of finding one or an ensemble of such subsurface realizations that are in agreement with the data. The most general inversion frameworks are presently often computationally intractable when applied to large-scale problems and it is necessary to better understand the implications of simplifying (1) the conceptual geological model (e.g., using model compression); (2) the physical forward problem (e.g., using proxy models); and (3) the algorithm used to solve the inverse problem (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo or local optimization methods) to reach practical and robust solutions given today's computer resources and knowledge. We also highlight the need to not only use geophysical and hydrogeological data for parameter estimation purposes, but also to use them to falsify or corroborate alternative geological scenarios.