A robust nonlinear identification algorithm using PRESS statistic and forward regression

This letter introduces a new robust nonlinear identification algorithm using the Predicted REsidual Sums of Squares (PRESS) statistic and for-ward regression. The major contribution is to compute the PRESS statistic within a framework of a forward orthogonalization process and hence construct a model with a good generalization property. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation.

Automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm using forward regression and the PRESS statistic

An automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm is introduced based on forward regression and the predicted-residual-sums-of-squares (PRESS) statistic. The proposed algorithm is based on the fundamental concept of evaluating a model's generalisation capability through crossvalidation. This is achieved by using the PRESS statistic as a cost function to optimise model structure. In particular, the proposed algorithm is developed with the aim of achieving computational efficiency, such that the computational effort, which would usually be extensive in the computation of the PRESS statistic, is reduced or minimised. The computation of PRESS is simplified by avoiding a matrix inversion through the use of the orthogonalisation procedure inherent in forward regression, and is further reduced significantly by the introduction of a forward-recursive formula. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic, the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm.

Hipóteses estatísticas com dados desbalanceados nos modelos com três fatores de efeitos fixos hierarquizados

Este trabalho tem por objetivo formalizar os termos das respectivas somas de quadrados e hipóteses mais usuais, que são testadas nos modelos com três fatores de efeitos fixos hierarquizados para dados desbalanceados. Discute-se, também, o problema da interpretação de hipóteses associadas às somas de quadrados, bem como comparam-se os resultados fornecidos por alguns softwares estatísticos.

Differential forms on Carnot groups

The main goal of this thesis is to understand and link together some of the early works by Michel Rumin and Pierre Julg. The work is centered around the so-called Rumin complex, which is a construction in subRiemannian geometry. A Carnot manifold is a manifold endowed with a horizontal distribution. If further a metric is given, one gets a subRiemannian manifold. Such data arise in different contexts, such as: - formulation of the second principle of thermodynamics; - optimal control; - propagation of singularities for sums of squares of vector fields; - real hypersurfaces in complex manifolds; - ideal boundaries of rank one symmetric spaces; - asymptotic geometry of nilpotent groups; - modelization of human vision. Differential forms on a Carnot manifold have weights, which produces a filtered complex. In view of applications to nilpotent groups, Rumin has defined a substitute for the de Rham complex, adapted to this filtration. The presence of a filtered complex also suggests the use of the formal machinery of spectral sequences in the study of cohomology. The goal was indeed to understand the link between Rumin's operator and the differentials which appear in the various spectral sequences we have worked with: - the weight spectral sequence; - a special spectral sequence introduced by Julg and called by him Forman's spectral sequence; - Forman's spectral sequence (which turns out to be unrelated to the previous one). We will see that in general Rumin's operator depends on choices. However, in some special cases, it does not because it has an alternative interpretation as a differential in a natural spectral sequence. After defining Carnot groups and analysing their main properties, we will introduce the concept of weights of forms which will produce a splitting on the exterior differential operator d. We shall see how the Rumin complex arises from this splitting and proceed to carry out the complete computations in some key examples. From the third chapter onwards we will focus on Julg's paper, describing his new filtration and its relationship with the weight spectral sequence. We will study the connection between the spectral sequences and Rumin's complex in the n-dimensional Heisenberg group and the 7-dimensional quaternionic Heisenberg group and then generalize the result to Carnot groups using the weight filtration. Finally, we shall explain why Julg required the independence of choices in some special Rumin operators, introducing the Szego map and describing its main properties.

Cellulose swelling by protic solvents: which properties of the biopolymer and the solvent matter?

The question posed in the title has been addressed by studying the swelling of celluloses at 20 C by twenty protic solvents, including water; linear- and branched-chain aliphatic alcohols; unsaturated aliphatic alcohols, and alkoxyalcohols. The biopolymers investigated included microcrystalline cellulose, MC, native and never-dried mercerized cotton cellulose, cotton and M-cotton, and native and never-dried mercerized eucalyptus cellulose, eucalyptus and M-eucalyptus, respectively. In most cases, better correlations with the physico-chemical properties of the solvents were obtained when the swelling was expressed as number of moles of solvent/anhydroglucose unit, nSw, rather than as % increase in sample weight. The descriptors employed in these correlations included, where available, Hildebrand`s solubility parameters, Gutmann`s acceptor and donor numbers, solvent molar volume, V(S), as well as solvatochromic parameters. The latter, employed for the first time for correlating the swelling of biopolymers, included empirical solvent polarity, E(T)(30), solvent ""acidity"", alpha(S), ""basicity"", beta(S), and dipolarity/polarizability, pi(S)*, respectively. Small regression coefficients and large sums of the squares of the residues were obtained when values of nSw were correlated with two solvent parameters. Much better correlations were obtained with three solvent parameters. The most statistically significant descriptor in the correlation equation depends on the cellulose, being pi(S)* for MC, cotton, and eucalyptus, and V(S) for M-cotton and M-eucalyptus. The best correlations were obtained with the same set of four parameters for all celluloses, namely, solvent pKa (or alpha(S)) beta(S), pi(S)*, and V(S), respectively. These results indicate that the supra-molecular structure of the biopolymer, in particular the average sizes of crystallites and micro-pores, and the presence of its chains in parallel (cellulose I) or anti-parallel (cellulose II) arrangements control its swelling. At least for the present biopolymer/solvent systems, use of solvatochromic parameters is a superior alternative to Hildebrand`s solubility parameters and/or Gutmann`s acceptor and donor numbers. The relevance of these results to the accessibility of the hydroxyl groups of cellulose, hence to its reactivity, is briefly discussed.

Effect of diameter of the cotton squares in the development of boll weevil

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estudar o efeito do diâmetro dos botões florais de algodoeiro na massa corporal de adultos do bicudo-do-algodoeiro, Anthonomus grandis Boheman (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). O experimento foi realizado em condições de campo e laboratório, em Jaboticabal (SP), Brasil. Foram realizadas seis amostragens, coletando-se ao acaso dez plantas nas cultivares Coodetec 405 e Fibermax 986, avaliando-se o número e o diâmetro de botões florais. Os botões florais com orifícios de oviposição foram individualizados em frascos e observados diariamente para a visualização da emergência dos adultos. Botões florais com maiores diâmetros proporcionam maior massa corporal de adultos de A. grandis recém-emergidos nas duas cultivares.

APPROXIMATE CALCULATION OF SUMS I: BOUNDS FOR THE ZEROS OF GRAM POLYNOMIALS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Use of intrinsic modes in biology: Examples of indicial response of pulmonary blood pressure to ± step hypoxia

Recently, a new method to analyze biological nonstationary stochastic variables has been presented. The method is especially suitable to analyze the variation of one biological variable with respect to changes of another variable. Here, it is illustrated by the change of the pulmonary blood pressure in response to a step change of oxygen concentration in the gas that an animal breathes. The pressure signal is resolved into the sum of a set of oscillatory intrinsic mode functions, which have zero “local mean,” and a final nonoscillatory mode. With this device, we obtain a set of “mean trends,” each of which represents a “mean” in a definitive sense, and together they represent the mean trend systematically with different degrees of oscillatory content. Correspondingly, the oscillatory content of the signal about any mean trend can be represented by a set of partial sums of intrinsic mode functions. When the concept of “indicial response function” is used to describe the change of one variable in response to a step change of another variable, we now have a set of indicial response functions of the mean trends and another set of indicial response functions to describe the energy or intensity of oscillations about each mean trend. Each of these can be represented by an analytic function whose coefficients can be determined by a least-squares curve-fitting procedure. In this way, experimental results are stated sharply by analytic functions.

The Zeros of Riemann Zeta Partial Sums Yield Solutions to f(x) + f(2x) + · · · + f(nx) = 0

This paper proves that every zero of any n th , n ≥ 2, partial sum of the Riemann zeta function provides a vector space of basic solutions of the functional equation f(x)+f(2x)+⋯+f(nx)=0,x∈R . The continuity of the solutions depends on the sign of the real part of each zero.

Enterprise resources planning systems impacts: A Delphi study of Australian public sector

The business value of Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERP systems), and in general large software implementations, has been extensively debated in both popular press and in the academic literature for over two decades. Organisations invest enormous sums of money and resources in Enterprise Resource Planning systems (and related infrastructure), presumably expecting positive impacts to the organisation and its functions. Some studies have reported large productivity improvements and substantial benefits from ERP systems, while others have reported that ERP systems have not had any bottom-line impact. This paper discusses initial findings from a study that focuses on identifying and assessing important ERP impacts in 23 Australian public sector organizations.

Multi-criteria assessment of innovative technology in the beef industry

In Australia rural research and development corporations and companies expended over $AUS500 million on agricultural research and development. A substantial proportion of this is invested in R&D in the beef industry. The Australian beef industry exports almost $AUS5billionof product annually and invest heavily in new product development to improve the beef quality and improve production efficiency. Review points are critical for effective new product development, yet many research and development bodies, particularly publicly funded ones, appear to ignore the importance of assessing products prior to their release. Significant sums of money are invested in developing technological innovations that have low levels and rates of adoption. The adoption rates could be improved if the developers were more focused on technology uptake and less focused on proving their technologies can be applied in practice. Several approaches have been put forward in an effort to improve rates of adoption into operational settings. This paper presents a study of key technological innovations in the Australian beef industry to assess the use of multiple criteria in evaluating the potential uptake of new technologies. Findings indicate that using multiple criteria to evaluate innovations before commercializing a technology enables researchers to better understand the issues that may inhibit adoption.

Development of a high-speed sensing and detection system for automatic removal of packages with leaky seals from a high-speed food processing and packaging line

Contamination of packaged foods due to micro-organisms entering through air leaks can cause serious public health issues and cost companies large amounts of money due to product recalls, consumer impact and subsequent loss of market share. The main source of contamination is leaks in packaging which allow air, moisture and microorganisms to enter the package. In the food processing and packaging industry worldwide, there is an increasing demand for cost effective state of the art inspection technologies that are capable of reliably detecting leaky seals and delivering products at six-sigma. The new technology will develop non-destructive testing technology using digital imaging and sensing combined with a differential vacuum technique to assess seal integrity of food packages on a high-speed production line. The cost of leaky packages in Australian food industries is estimated close to AUD $35 Million per year. Contamination of packaged foods due to micro-organisms entering through air leaks can cause serious public health issues and cost companies large sums of money due to product recalls, compensation claims and loss of market share. The main source of contamination is leaks in packaging which allow air, moisture and micro-organisms to enter the package. Flexible plastic packages are widely used, and are the least expensive form of retaining the quality of the product. These packets can be used to seal, and therefore maximise, the shelf life of both dry and moist products. The seals of food packages need to be airtight so that the food content is not contaminated due to contact with microorganisms that enter as a result of air leakage. Airtight seals also extend the shelf life of packaged foods, and manufacturers attempt to prevent food products with leaky seals being sold to consumers. There are many current NDT (non-destructive testing) methods of testing the seal of flexible packages best suited to random sampling, and for laboratory purposes. The three most commonly used methods are vacuum/pressure decay, bubble test, and helium leak detection. Although these methods can detect very fine leaks, they are limited by their high processing time and are not viable in a production line. Two nondestructive in-line packaging inspection machines are currently available and are discussed in the literature review. The detailed design and development of the High-Speed Sensing and Detection System (HSDS) is the fundamental requirement of this project and the future prototype and production unit. Successful laboratory testing was completed and a methodical design procedure was needed for a successful concept. The Mechanical tests confirmed the vacuum hypothesis and seal integrity with good consistent results. Electrically, the testing also provided solid results to enable the researcher to move the project forward with a certain amount of confidence. The laboratory design testing allowed the researcher to confirm theoretical assumptions before moving into the detailed design phase. Discussion on the development of the alternative concepts in both mechanical and electrical disciplines enables the researcher to make an informed decision. Each major mechanical and electrical component is detailed through the research and design process. The design procedure methodically works through the various major functions both from a mechanical and electrical perspective. It opens up alternative ideas for the major components that although are sometimes not practical in this application, show that the researcher has exhausted all engineering and functionality thoughts. Further concepts were then designed and developed for the entire HSDS unit based on previous practice and theory. In the future, it would be envisaged that both the Prototype and Production version of the HSDS would utilise standard industry available components, manufactured and distributed locally. Future research and testing of the prototype unit could result in a successful trial unit being incorporated in a working food processing production environment. Recommendations and future works are discussed, along with options in other food processing and packaging disciplines, and other areas in the non-food processing industry.

Assessment of body composition in Sri Lankan children: Validation of a bioelectrical impedance prediction equation

Objective: To develop bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations to predict total body water (TBW) and fat-free mass (FFM) of Sri Lankan children. Subjects/Methods: Data were collected from 5- to 15-year-old healthy children. They were randomly assigned to validation (M/F: 105/83) and cross-validation (M/F: 53/41) groups. Height, weight and BIA were measured. TBW was assessed using isotope dilution method (D2 O). Multiple regression analysis was used to develop preliminary equations and cross-validated on an independent group. Final prediction equation was constructed combining the two groups and validated by PRESS (prediction of sum of squares) statistics. Impedance index (height2/impedance; cm2/Ω), weight and sex code (male = 1; female = 0) were used as variables. Results: Independent variables of the final prediction equation for TBW were able to predict 86.3% of variance with root means-squared error (RMSE) of 2.1l. PRESS statistics was 2.1l with press residuals of 1.2l. Independent variables were able to predict 86.9% of variance of FFM with RMSE of 2.7 kg. PRESS statistics was 2.8 kg with press residuals of 1.4 kg. Bland Altman technique showed that the majority of the residuals were within mean bias±1.96 s.d. Conclusions: Results of this study provide BIA equation for the prediction of TBW and FFM in Sri Lankan children. To the best of our knowledge there are no published BIA prediction equations validated on South Asian populations. Results of this study need to be affirmed by more studies on other closely related populations by using multi-component body composition assessment.

Steady state optimization of an ammonia reactor

A hybrid simulation technique for identification and steady state optimization of a tubular reactor used in ammonia synthesis is presented. The parameter identification program finds the catalyst activity factor and certain heat transfer coefficients that minimize the sum of squares of deviation from simulated and actual temperature measurements obtained from an operating plant. The optimization program finds the values of three flows to the reactor to maximize the ammonia yield using the estimated parameter values. Powell's direct method of optimization is used in both cases. The results obtained here are compared with the plant data.