The hydrology of a small area near Auburn, Alabama /

"September 1949"

Using BRFSS data for small area analysis of cancer screening behaviors /

"June 1995."

Vacant parking area estimation through background subtraction and transience map analysis

A method for estimating the dimensions of non-delimited free parking areas by using a static surveillance camera is proposed. The proposed method is specially designed to tackle the main challenges of urban scenarios (multiple moving objects, outdoor illumination conditions and occlusions between vehicles) with no training. The core of this work is the temporal analysis of the video frames to detect the occupancy variation of the parking areas. Two techniques are combined: background subtraction using a mixture of Gaussians to detect and track vehicles and the creation of a transience map to detect the parking and leaving of vehicles. The authors demonstrate that the proposed method yields satisfactory estimates on three real scenarios while being a low computational cost solution that can be applied in any kind of parking area covered by a single camera.

Inférence robuste à la présence des valeurs aberrantes dans les enquêtes

Cette thèse comporte trois articles dont un est publié et deux en préparation. Le sujet central de la thèse porte sur le traitement des valeurs aberrantes représentatives dans deux aspects importants des enquêtes que sont : l’estimation des petits domaines et l’imputation en présence de non-réponse partielle. En ce qui concerne les petits domaines, les estimateurs robustes dans le cadre des modèles au niveau des unités ont été étudiés. Sinha & Rao (2009) proposent une version robuste du meilleur prédicteur linéaire sans biais empirique pour la moyenne des petits domaines. Leur estimateur robuste est de type «plugin», et à la lumière des travaux de Chambers (1986), cet estimateur peut être biaisé dans certaines situations. Chambers et al. (2014) proposent un estimateur corrigé du biais. En outre, un estimateur de l’erreur quadratique moyenne a été associé à ces estimateurs ponctuels. Sinha & Rao (2009) proposent une procédure bootstrap paramétrique pour estimer l’erreur quadratique moyenne. Des méthodes analytiques sont proposées dans Chambers et al. (2014). Cependant, leur validité théorique n’a pas été établie et leurs performances empiriques ne sont pas pleinement satisfaisantes. Ici, nous examinons deux nouvelles approches pour obtenir une version robuste du meilleur prédicteur linéaire sans biais empirique : la première est fondée sur les travaux de Chambers (1986), et la deuxième est basée sur le concept de biais conditionnel comme mesure de l’influence d’une unité de la population. Ces deux classes d’estimateurs robustes des petits domaines incluent également un terme de correction pour le biais. Cependant, ils utilisent tous les deux l’information disponible dans tous les domaines contrairement à celui de Chambers et al. (2014) qui utilise uniquement l’information disponible dans le domaine d’intérêt. Dans certaines situations, un biais non négligeable est possible pour l’estimateur de Sinha & Rao (2009), alors que les estimateurs proposés exhibent un faible biais pour un choix approprié de la fonction d’influence et de la constante de robustesse. Les simulations Monte Carlo sont effectuées, et les comparaisons sont faites entre les estimateurs proposés et ceux de Sinha & Rao (2009) et de Chambers et al. (2014). Les résultats montrent que les estimateurs de Sinha & Rao (2009) et de Chambers et al. (2014) peuvent avoir un biais important, alors que les estimateurs proposés ont une meilleure performance en termes de biais et d’erreur quadratique moyenne. En outre, nous proposons une nouvelle procédure bootstrap pour l’estimation de l’erreur quadratique moyenne des estimateurs robustes des petits domaines. Contrairement aux procédures existantes, nous montrons formellement la validité asymptotique de la méthode bootstrap proposée. Par ailleurs, la méthode proposée est semi-paramétrique, c’est-à-dire, elle n’est pas assujettie à une hypothèse sur les distributions des erreurs ou des effets aléatoires. Ainsi, elle est particulièrement attrayante et plus largement applicable. Nous examinons les performances de notre procédure bootstrap avec les simulations Monte Carlo. Les résultats montrent que notre procédure performe bien et surtout performe mieux que tous les compétiteurs étudiés. Une application de la méthode proposée est illustrée en analysant les données réelles contenant des valeurs aberrantes de Battese, Harter & Fuller (1988). S’agissant de l’imputation en présence de non-réponse partielle, certaines formes d’imputation simple ont été étudiées. L’imputation par la régression déterministe entre les classes, qui inclut l’imputation par le ratio et l’imputation par la moyenne sont souvent utilisées dans les enquêtes. Ces méthodes d’imputation peuvent conduire à des estimateurs imputés biaisés si le modèle d’imputation ou le modèle de non-réponse n’est pas correctement spécifié. Des estimateurs doublement robustes ont été développés dans les années récentes. Ces estimateurs sont sans biais si l’un au moins des modèles d’imputation ou de non-réponse est bien spécifié. Cependant, en présence des valeurs aberrantes, les estimateurs imputés doublement robustes peuvent être très instables. En utilisant le concept de biais conditionnel, nous proposons une version robuste aux valeurs aberrantes de l’estimateur doublement robuste. Les résultats des études par simulations montrent que l’estimateur proposé performe bien pour un choix approprié de la constante de robustesse.

Spatial methods for plot-based sampling of wildlife populations

Classical sampling methods can be used to estimate the mean of a finite or infinite population. Block kriging also estimates the mean, but of an infinite population in a continuous spatial domain. In this paper, I consider a finite population version of block kriging (FPBK) for plot-based sampling. The data are assumed to come from a spatial stochastic process. Minimizing mean-squared-prediction errors yields best linear unbiased predictions that are a finite population version of block kriging. FPBK has versions comparable to simple random sampling and stratified sampling, and includes the general linear model. This method has been tested for several years for moose surveys in Alaska, and an example is given where results are compared to stratified random sampling. In general, assuming a spatial model gives three main advantages over classical sampling: (1) FPBK is usually more precise than simple or stratified random sampling, (2) FPBK allows small area estimation, and (3) FPBK allows nonrandom sampling designs.

Estimación de variables dasométricas a partir de datos LiDAR y obtención de modelos de referencia para las distribuciones de alturas y diámetros del arbolado

La Gestión Forestal Sostenible se define como “la administración y uso de los bosques y tierras forestales de forma e intensidad tales que mantengan su biodiversidad, productividad, capacidad de regeneración, vitalidad y su potencial para atender, ahora y en el futuro, las funciones ecológicas, económicas y sociales relevantes a escala local, nacional y global, y que no causan daño a otros ecosistemas” (MCPFE Conference, 1993). Dentro del proceso los procesos de planificación, en cualquier escala, es necesario establecer cuál será la situación a la que se quiere llegar mediante la gestión. Igualmente, será necesario conocer la situación actual, pues marcará la situación de partida y condicionará el tipo de actuaciones a realizar para alcanzar los objetivos fijados. Dado que, los Proyectos de Ordenación de Montes y sus respectivas revisiones son herramientas de planificación, durante la redacción de los mismos, será necesario establecer una serie de objetivos cuya consecución pueda verificarse de forma objetiva y disponer de una caracterización de la masa forestal que permita conocer la situación de partida. Esta tesis se centra en problemas prácticos, propios de una escala de planificación local o de Proyecto de Ordenación de Montes. El primer objetivo de la tesis es determinar distribuciones diamétricas y de alturas de referencia para masas regulares por bosquetes, empleando para ello el modelo conceptual propuesto por García-Abril et al., (1999) y datos procedentes de las Tablas de producción de Rojo y Montero (1996). Las distribuciones de referencia obtenidas permitirán guiar la gestión de masas irregulares y regulares por bosquetes. Ambos tipos de masas aparecen como una alternativa deseable en aquellos casos en los que se quiere potenciar la biodiversidad, la estabilidad, la multifuncionalidad del bosque y/o como alternativa productiva, especialmente indicada para la producción de madera de calidad. El segundo objetivo de la Tesis está relacionado con la necesidad de disponer de una caracterización adecuada de la masa forestal durante la redacción de los Proyectos de Ordenación de Montes y de sus respectivas revisiones. Con el fin de obtener estimaciones de variables forestales en distintas unidades territoriales de potencial interés para la Ordenación de Montes, así como medidas de la incertidumbre en asociada dichas estimaciones, se extienden ciertos resultados de la literatura de Estimación en Áreas Pequeñas. Mediante un caso de estudio, se demuestra el potencial de aplicación de estas técnicas en inventario forestales asistidos con información auxiliar procedente de sensores láser aerotransportados (ALS). Los casos de estudio se realizan empleando datos ALS similares a los recopilados en el marco del Plan Nacional de Ortofotografía Aérea (PNOA). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que es posible aumentar la eficiencia de los inventarios forestales tradicionales a escala de proyecto de Ordenación de Montes, mediante la aplicación de estimadores EBLUP (Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor) con modelos a nivel de elemento poblacional e información auxiliar ALS similar a la recopilada por el PNOA. ABSTRACT According to MCPFE (1993) Sustainable Forest Management is “the stewardship and use of forests and forest lands in a way, and at a rate, that maintains their biodiversity, productivity, regeneration capacity, vitality and their potential to fulfill, now and in the future, relevant ecological, economic and social functions, at local, national, and global levels, and that does not cause damage to other ecosystems”. For forest management planning, at any scale, we must determine what situation is hoped to be achieved through management. It is also necessary to know the current situation, as this will mark the starting point and condition the type of actions to be performed in order to meet the desired objectives. Forest management at a local scale is no exception. This Thesis focuses on typical problems of forest management planning at a local scale. The first objective of this Thesis is to determine management objectives for group shelterwood management systems in terms of tree height and tree diameter reference distributions. For this purpose, the conceptual model proposed by García-Abril et al., (1999) is applied to the yield tables for Pinus sylvestris in Sierra de Guadrrama (Rojo y Montero, 1996). The resulting reference distributions will act as a guide in the management of forests treated under the group shelterwood management systems or as an approximated reference for the management of uneven aged forests. Both types of management systems are desirable in those cases where forest biodiversity, stability and multifunctionality are pursued goals. These management systems are also recommended as alternatives for the production of high quality wood. The second objective focuses on the need to adequately characterize the forest during the decision process that leads to local management. In order to obtain estimates of forest variables for different management units of potential interest for forest planning, as well as the associated measures of uncertainty in these estimates, certain results from Small Area Estimation Literature are extended to accommodate for the need of estimates and reliability measures in very small subpopulations containing a reduced number of pixels. A case study shows the potential of Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques in forest inventories assisted with remotely sensed auxiliary information. The influence of the laser pulse density in the quality of estimates in different aggregation levels is analyzed. This study considers low laser pulse densities (0.5 returns/m2) similar to, those provided by large-scale Airborne Laser Scanner (ALS) surveys, such as the one conducted by the Spanish National Geographic Institute for about 80% of the Spanish territory. The results obtained show that it is possible to improve the efficiency of traditional forest inventories at local scale using EBLUP (Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor) estimators based on unit level models and low density ALS auxiliary information.

Space-Time Smoothing Models for Surveillance and Complex Survey Data

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Lamb wave based identification and parameter estimation of corrosion in metallic plate structure using a circular PWAS array

A circular array of Piezoelectric Wafer Active Sensor (PWAS) has been employed to detect surface damages like corrosion using lamb waves. The array consists of a number of small PWASs of 10 mm diameter and 1 mm thickness. The advantage of a circular array is its compact arrangement and large area of coverage for monitoring with small area of physical access. Growth of corrosion is monitored in a laboratory-scale set-up using the PWAS array and the nature of reflected and transmitted Lamb wave patterns due to corrosion is investigated. The wavelet time-frequency maps of the sensor signals are employed and a damage index is plotted against the damage parameters and varying frequency of the actuation signal (a windowed sine signal). The variation of wavelet coefficient for different growth of corrosion is studied. Wavelet coefficient as function of time gives an insight into the effect of corrosion in time-frequency scale. We present here a method to eliminate the time scale effect which helps in identifying easily the signature of damage in the measured signals. The proposed method becomes useful in determining the approximate location of the corrosion with respect to the location of three neighboring sensors in the circular array. A cumulative damage index is computed for varying damage sizes and the results appear promising.

Estimation of leaf area in grapevine cv. Syrah using empirical models

Aiming to obtain empirical models for the estimation of Syrah leaf area a set of 210 fruiting shoots was randomly collected during the 2013 growing season in an adult experimental vineyard, located in Lisbon, Portugal. Samples of 30 fruiting shoots were taken periodically from the stage of inflorescences visible to veraison (7 sampling dates). At the lab, from each shoot, primary and lateral leaves were separated and numbered according to node insertion. For each leaf, the length of the central and lateral veins was recorded and then the leaf area was measured by a leaf area meter. For single leaf area estimation the best statistical models uses as explanatory variable the sum of the lengths of the two lateral leaf veins. For the estimation of leaf area per shoot it was followed the approach of Lopes & Pinto (2005), based on 3 explanatory variables: number of primary leaves and area of the largest and smallest leaves. The best statistical model for estimation of primary leaf area per shoot uses a calculated variable obtained from the average of the largest and smallest primary leaf area multiplied by the number of primary leaves. For lateral leaf area estimation another model using the same type of calculated variable is also presented. All models explain a very high proportion of variability in leaf area. Our results confirm the already reported strong importance of the three measured variables (number of leaves and area of the largest and smallest leaf) as predictors of the shoot leaf area. The proposed models can be used to accurately predict Syrah primary and secondary leaf area per shoot in any phase of the growing cycle. They are inexpensive, practical, non-destructive methods which do not require specialized staff or expensive equipment.

Comparing multilevel and Bayesian spatial random effects survival models to assess geographical inequalities in colorectal cancer survival: a case study

Background Multilevel and spatial models are being increasingly used to obtain substantive information on area-level inequalities in cancer survival. Multilevel models assume independent geographical areas, whereas spatial models explicitly incorporate geographical correlation, often via a conditional autoregressive prior. However the relative merits of these methods for large population-based studies have not been explored. Using a case-study approach, we report on the implications of using multilevel and spatial survival models to study geographical inequalities in all-cause survival. Methods Multilevel discrete-time and Bayesian spatial survival models were used to study geographical inequalities in all-cause survival for a population-based colorectal cancer cohort of 22,727 cases aged 20–84 years diagnosed during 1997–2007 from Queensland, Australia. Results Both approaches were viable on this large dataset, and produced similar estimates of the fixed effects. After adding area-level covariates, the between-area variability in survival using multilevel discrete-time models was no longer significant. Spatial inequalities in survival were also markedly reduced after adjusting for aggregated area-level covariates. Only the multilevel approach however, provided an estimation of the contribution of geographical variation to the total variation in survival between individual patients. Conclusions With little difference observed between the two approaches in the estimation of fixed effects, multilevel models should be favored if there is a clear hierarchical data structure and measuring the independent impact of individual- and area-level effects on survival differences is of primary interest. Bayesian spatial analyses may be preferred if spatial correlation between areas is important and if the priority is to assess small-area variations in survival and map spatial patterns. Both approaches can be readily fitted to geographically enabled survival data from international settings

A Geologic Report on the Pacoima Area

The region treated in the following report is a small area of about one square mile near Pacoima, California. It consists of a group of small hills that that form the western abutment of the Hansen Dam. It is underlain by a section of intrusives, sediments, and extrusives, which may be subdivided into four groups.

The oldest rocks form the Dimebere complex of Jurassic (?) plutonic rocks, pegmatites, and schists. Lying uncomformably on this is a series of alternating terrestrial sandstones and bassalts of Tertiary age. These are unconformably overlain in turn by the Hansen Dam formation, a series of marine shales and sandstone correlated with the Temblor by the fossil contact. Finally into these strata was intruded the Munglish andesite.

These strata form a shallow, plunging anticline, whose axis trends slightly east of north and lies in the center of the hills. The unconformities have been offset in several places by a series of faults apparently related to the anticline.

A complete outline of the geologic history is included in the report.

Determination of Merremia cissoides leaf area using the linear measures of the leaflets

O conhecimento da área foliar de plantas daninhas pode auxiliar o estudo das relações de interferência entre elas e as culturas agrícolas. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi determinar uma equação matemática que estime a área foliar de Merremia cissoides, a partir da relação entre as dimensões lineares dos limbos foliares. Folhas da espécie foram coletadas de diferentes locais na Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, medindo-se o comprimento (C), a largura máxima (L) e a área foliar de três tipos de folíolos. Foram estimadas equações lineares Y = a x (X) para cada tipo de folíolo. Houve sobreposição dos intervalos de confiança das equações dos folíolos primário e secundário, por isso considerou-se uma única equação da média desses folíolos, além da equação do folíolo principal, para caracterização da área foliar de M. cissoides. Assim, a área foliar dessa espécie pode ser estimada pelo somatório das áreas dos limbos foliares dos folíolos principal e primário + secundário, por meio da equação AFnest = 0,501 x (X) + 2,181 x (Z), em que X indica C x L do folíolo principal e Z indica C x L médios dos folíolos primário + secundário, respectivamente.

Denudation rates of small transient catchments controlled by former glaciation: The Hörnli nunatak in the northeastern Swiss Alpine Foreland

Extensive glaciers repeatedly occupied the northern Alpine Foreland during the Pleistocene and left a strongly glacially overprinted low slope landscape. Only few islands appeared as nunataks standing above the surface of the large piedmont glacier lobes. These nunatak areas kept their original shape, manifested in steep catchments with mean slopes up to 33 . Even though not glaciated, these catchments where significantly affected by base-level changes occurring as a consequence of phases of glacier advances and retreats. Both domains, the glacially eroded and non-eroded, are therefore prone to different mechanisms and time-scales of fluvial and colluvial re-adjustment. In this study we investigate these effects by exploring the spatial distribution and magnitude of denudation in the Hörnli region of the eastern Swiss Alpine Foreland in the present Interglacial. The area represents both domains in a relatively small area with largely uniform tectonic, lithologic and climatic conditions. The differences in Holocene andscape evolution are investigated using topographic analyses and catchment-averaged denudation rates derived from 10Be concentrations in fluvial quartz sand. We find that in formerly non-glaciated, fluvially dominated catchments close hillslope-channel coupling prevails and that these catchments yield high average denudation rates of 350 mm/ka. Glacially overprinted catchments yielded catchment-wide denudation rates an order of magnitude lower. These low denudation rates are hypothesized to be the consequence of both (i) a dominance of slow hillslope processes and (ii) admixture of high concentration, pre-LGM glacial sediment. This suggests that a) a careful field investigation must accompany the denudation rate studies and b) that the concept of area-weighted cosmogenic nuclide denudation rates must be considered in light of the predominant catchment processes.