5 resultados para Small Area Estimation

em CaltechTHESIS


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The region treated in the following report is a small area of about one square mile near Pacoima, California. It consists of a group of small hills that that form the western abutment of the Hansen Dam. It is underlain by a section of intrusives, sediments, and extrusives, which may be subdivided into four groups.

The oldest rocks form the Dimebere complex of Jurassic (?) plutonic rocks, pegmatites, and schists. Lying uncomformably on this is a series of alternating terrestrial sandstones and bassalts of Tertiary age. These are unconformably overlain in turn by the Hansen Dam formation, a series of marine shales and sandstone correlated with the Temblor by the fossil contact. Finally into these strata was intruded the Munglish andesite.

These strata form a shallow, plunging anticline, whose axis trends slightly east of north and lies in the center of the hills. The unconformities have been offset in several places by a series of faults apparently related to the anticline.

A complete outline of the geologic history is included in the report.

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Part I.

We have developed a technique for measuring the depth time history of rigid body penetration into brittle materials (hard rocks and concretes) under a deceleration of ~ 105 g. The technique includes bar-coded projectile, sabot-projectile separation, detection and recording systems. Because the technique can give very dense data on penetration depth time history, penetration velocity can be deduced. Error analysis shows that the technique has a small intrinsic error of ~ 3-4 % in time during penetration, and 0.3 to 0.7 mm in penetration depth. A series of 4140 steel projectile penetration into G-mixture mortar targets have been conducted using the Caltech 40 mm gas/ powder gun in the velocity range of 100 to 500 m/s.

We report, for the first time, the whole depth-time history of rigid body penetration into brittle materials (the G-mixture mortar) under 105 g deceleration. Based on the experimental results, including penetration depth time history, damage of recovered target and projectile materials and theoretical analysis, we find:

1. Target materials are damaged via compacting in the region in front of a projectile and via brittle radial and lateral crack propagation in the region surrounding the penetration path. The results suggest that expected cracks in front of penetrators may be stopped by a comminuted region that is induced by wave propagation. Aggregate erosion on the projectile lateral surface is < 20% of the final penetration depth. This result suggests that the effect of lateral friction on the penetration process can be ignored.

2. Final penetration depth, Pmax, is linearly scaled with initial projectile energy per unit cross-section area, es , when targets are intact after impact. Based on the experimental data on the mortar targets, the relation is Pmax(mm) 1.15es (J/mm2 ) + 16.39.

3. Estimation of the energy needed to create an unit penetration volume suggests that the average pressure acting on the target material during penetration is ~ 10 to 20 times higher than the unconfined strength of target materials under quasi-static loading, and 3 to 4 times higher than the possible highest pressure due to friction and material strength and its rate dependence. In addition, the experimental data show that the interaction between cracks and the target free surface significantly affects the penetration process.

4. Based on the fact that the penetration duration, tmax, increases slowly with es and does not depend on projectile radius approximately, the dependence of tmax on projectile length is suggested to be described by tmax(μs) = 2.08es (J/mm2 + 349.0 x m/(πR2), in which m is the projectile mass in grams and R is the projectile radius in mm. The prediction from this relation is in reasonable agreement with the experimental data for different projectile lengths.

5. Deduced penetration velocity time histories suggest that whole penetration history is divided into three stages: (1) An initial stage in which the projectile velocity change is small due to very small contact area between the projectile and target materials; (2) A steady penetration stage in which projectile velocity continues to decrease smoothly; (3) A penetration stop stage in which projectile deceleration jumps up when velocities are close to a critical value of ~ 35 m/s.

6. Deduced averaged deceleration, a, in the steady penetration stage for projectiles with same dimensions is found to be a(g) = 192.4v + 1.89 x 104, where v is initial projectile velocity in m/s. The average pressure acting on target materials during penetration is estimated to be very comparable to shock wave pressure.

7. A similarity of penetration process is found to be described by a relation between normalized penetration depth, P/Pmax, and normalized penetration time, t/tmax, as P/Pmax = f(t/tmax, where f is a function of t/tmax. After f(t/tmax is determined using experimental data for projectiles with 150 mm length, the penetration depth time history for projectiles with 100 mm length predicted by this relation is in good agreement with experimental data. This similarity also predicts that average deceleration increases with decreasing projectile length, that is verified by the experimental data.

8. Based on the penetration process analysis and the present data, a first principle model for rigid body penetration is suggested. The model incorporates the models for contact area between projectile and target materials, friction coefficient, penetration stop criterion, and normal stress on the projectile surface. The most important assumptions used in the model are: (1) The penetration process can be treated as a series of impact events, therefore, pressure normal to projectile surface is estimated using the Hugoniot relation of target material; (2) The necessary condition for penetration is that the pressure acting on target materials is not lower than the Hugoniot elastic limit; (3) The friction force on projectile lateral surface can be ignored due to cavitation during penetration. All the parameters involved in the model are determined based on independent experimental data. The penetration depth time histories predicted from the model are in good agreement with the experimental data.

9. Based on planar impact and previous quasi-static experimental data, the strain rate dependence of the mortar compressive strength is described by σf0f = exp(0.0905(log(έ/έ_0) 1.14, in the strain rate range of 10-7/s to 103/s (σ0f and έ are reference compressive strength and strain rate, respectively). The non-dispersive Hugoniot elastic wave in the G-mixture has an amplitude of ~ 0.14 GPa and a velocity of ~ 4.3 km/s.

Part II.

Stress wave profiles in vitreous GeO2 were measured using piezoresistance gauges in the pressure range of 5 to 18 GPa under planar plate and spherical projectile impact. Experimental data show that the response of vitreous GeO2 to planar shock loading can be divided into three stages: (1) A ramp elastic precursor has peak amplitude of 4 GPa and peak particle velocity of 333 m/s. Wave velocity decreases from initial longitudinal elastic wave velocity of 3.5 km/s to 2.9 km/s at 4 GPa; (2) A ramp wave with amplitude of 2.11 GPa follows the precursor when peak loading pressure is 8.4 GPa. Wave velocity drops to the value below bulk wave velocity in this stage; (3) A shock wave achieving final shock state forms when peak pressure is > 6 GPa. The Hugoniot relation is D = 0.917 + 1.711u (km/s) using present data and the data of Jackson and Ahrens [1979] when shock wave pressure is between 6 and 40 GPa for ρ0 = 3.655 gj cm3 . Based on the present data, the phase change from 4-fold to 6-fold coordination of Ge+4 with O-2 in vitreous GeO2 occurs in the pressure range of 4 to 15 ± 1 GPa under planar shock loading. Comparison of the shock loading data for fused SiO2 to that on vitreous GeO2 demonstrates that transformation to the rutile structure in both media are similar. The Hugoniots of vitreous GeO2 and fused SiO2 are found to coincide approximately if pressure in fused SiO2 is scaled by the ratio of fused SiO2to vitreous GeO2 density. This result, as well as the same structure, provides the basis for considering vitreous Ge02 as an analogous material to fused SiO2 under shock loading. Experimental results from the spherical projectile impact demonstrate: (1) The supported elastic shock in fused SiO2 decays less rapidly than a linear elastic wave when elastic wave stress amplitude is higher than 4 GPa. The supported elastic shock in vitreous GeO2 decays faster than a linear elastic wave; (2) In vitreous GeO2 , unsupported shock waves decays with peak pressure in the phase transition range (4-15 GPa) with propagation distance, x, as α 1/x-3.35 , close to the prediction of Chen et al. [1998]. Based on a simple analysis on spherical wave propagation, we find that the different decay rates of a spherical elastic wave in fused SiO2 and vitreous GeO2 is predictable on the base of the compressibility variation with stress under one-dimensional strain condition in the two materials.

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Complexity in the earthquake rupture process can result from many factors. This study investigates the origin of such complexity by examining several recent, large earthquakes in detail. In each case the local tectonic environment plays an important role in understanding the source of the complexity.

Several large shallow earthquakes (Ms > 7.0) along the Middle American Trench have similarities and differences between them that may lead to a better understanding of fracture and subduction processes. They are predominantly thrust events consistent with the known subduction of the Cocos plate beneath N. America. Two events occurring along this subduction zone close to triple junctions show considerable complexity. This may be attributable to a more heterogeneous stress environment in these regions and as such has implications for other subduction zone boundaries.

An event which looks complex but is actually rather simple is the 1978 Bermuda earthquake (Ms ~ 6). It is located predominantly in the mantle. Its mechanism is one of pure thrust faulting with a strike N 20°W and dip 42°NE. Its apparent complexity is caused by local crustal structure. This is an important event in terms of understanding and estimating seismic hazard on the eastern seaboard of N. America.

A study of several large strike-slip continental earthquakes identifies characteristics which are common to them and may be useful in determining what to expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The events are the 1976 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault and two events on the Anatolian fault in Turkey (the 1967, Mudurnu Valley and 1976, E. Turkey events). An attempt to model the complex P-waveforms of these events results in good synthetic fits for the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. However, the E. Turkey event proves to be too complex as it may have associated thrust or normal faulting. Several individual sources occurring at intervals of between 5 and 20 seconds characterize the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. The maximum size of an individual source appears to be bounded at about 5 x 1026 dyne-cm. A detailed source study including directivity is performed on the Guatemala event. The source time history of the Mudurnu Valley event illustrates its significance in modeling strong ground motion in the near field. The complex source time series of the 1967 event produces amplitudes greater by a factor of 2.5 than a uniform model scaled to the same size for a station 20 km from the fault.

Three large and important earthquakes demonstrate an important type of complexity --- multiple-fault complexity. The first, the 1976 Philippine earthquake, an oblique thrust event, represents the first seismological evidence for a northeast dipping subduction zone beneath the island of Mindanao. A large event, following the mainshock by 12 hours, occurred outside the aftershock area and apparently resulted from motion on a subsidiary fault since the event had a strike-slip mechanism.

An aftershock of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake on June 6, 1960, proved to be an interesting discovery. It appears to be a large strike-slip event at the main rupture's southern boundary. It most likely occurred on the landward extension of the Chile Rise transform fault, in the subducting plate. The results for this event suggest that a small event triggered a series of slow events; the duration of the whole sequence being longer than 1 hour. This is indeed a "slow earthquake".

Perhaps one of the most complex of events is the recent Tangshan, China event. It began as a large strike-slip event. Within several seconds of the mainshock it may have triggered thrust faulting to the south of the epicenter. There is no doubt, however, that it triggered a large oblique normal event to the northeast, 15 hours after the mainshock. This event certainly contributed to the great loss of life-sustained as a result of the Tangshan earthquake sequence.

What has been learned from these studies has been applied to predict what one might expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas. The expectation from this study is that such an event would be a large complex event, not unlike, but perhaps larger than, the Guatemala or Mudurnu Valley events. That is to say, it will most likely consist of a series of individual events in sequence. It is also quite possible that the event could trigger associated faulting on neighboring fault systems such as those occurring in the Transverse Ranges. This has important bearing on the earthquake hazard estimation for the region.

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The Pacoima area is located on an isolated hill in the northeast section of the San Fernando, the northeast portion of the Pacoima Quadrangle, Los Angeles County, California. Within it are exposed more than 2300 feet of Tertiary rocks, which comprise three units of Middle Miocene (?) age, and approximately 950 feet of Jurassic (?) granite basement. The formations are characterized by their mode of occurrence, marine and terrestial origin, diverse lithology, and structural features.

The basement complex is composed of intrusive granite, small masses of granodiorite and a granodiorite gneiss with the development of schistosity in sections. During the long period of erosion of the metamorphics, the granitic rocks were exposed and may have provided clastic constituents for the overlying formations.

As a result of rapid sedimentation in a transitional environment, the Middle Miocene Twin Peaks formation was laid down unconformably on the granite. This formation is essentially a large thinning bed of gray to buff pebble and cobble conglomerate grading to coarse yellow sandstone. The contact of conglomerate and granite is characterized by its faulted and depositional nature.

Beds of extrusive andesite, basalt porphyry, compact vesicular amygdaloidal basalts, andesite breccia, interbedded feldspathic sands and clays of terrestial origin, and mudflow breccia comprise the Pacoima formation which overlies the Twin Peaks formation unconformably. A transgressing shallow sea accompanied settling of the region and initiated deposition of fine clastic sediments.

The marine Topanga (?) formation is composed of brown to gray coarse sandstone grading into interbedded buff sandstones and gray shales. Intrusions of rhyolitedacite and ash beds mark continued but sporatic volcanism during this period.

The area mapped represents an arch in the Tertiary sediments. Forces that produced the uplift of the granite structural high created stresses that were relieved by jointing and faulting. Vertical and horizontal movement along these faults has displaced beds, offset contacts and complicated their structure. Uplift and erosion have exposed the present sequence of beds which dip gently to the northeast. The isolated hill is believed to be in an early stage of maturity.

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The Pacoima area consists of Miocene (sediments and basalts) rocks underlain by a quartz diorite basement complex of Jurassic age. The stratigranhic units range from 25 feet to more than 600 feet in thickness. The lower sediments are arkosic land- laid deposits while the Modelo formation, shallow marine in origin, consists of thinly bedded sandstones, shales, volcanic ash and calcareous members. An andesitic mass, possibly a volcanic plug, outcrops near the summit of one of the hills.

An anticline, and possibly an associated syncline, has been developed by compressional folding. Small scale contortion is locally exposed. Regional dip is northward, decreasing from south to north in the area. Faulting is common, most faults trending nearly north-south. Movement along these faults ranges from a few feet to several hundred feet.

There are no important mineral deposits in the area. Quarrying of the basement rocks has been abandoned.