Posterior Simulation in the Generalized Linear Model with Semiparmetric Random Effects

Generalized linear mixed models with semiparametric random effects are useful in a wide variety of Bayesian applications. When the random effects arise from a mixture of Dirichlet process (MDP) model, normal base measures and Gibbs sampling procedures based on the Pólya urn scheme are often used to simulate posterior draws. These algorithms are applicable in the conjugate case when (for a normal base measure) the likelihood is normal. In the non-conjugate case, the algorithms proposed by MacEachern and Müller (1998) and Neal (2000) are often applied to generate posterior samples. Some common problems associated with simulation algorithms for non-conjugate MDP models include convergence and mixing difficulties. This paper proposes an algorithm based on the Pólya urn scheme that extends the Gibbs sampling algorithms to non-conjugate models with normal base measures and exponential family likelihoods. The algorithm proceeds by making Laplace approximations to the likelihood function, thereby reducing the procedure to that of conjugate normal MDP models. To ensure the validity of the stationary distribution in the non-conjugate case, the proposals are accepted or rejected by a Metropolis-Hastings step. In the special case where the data are normally distributed, the algorithm is identical to the Gibbs sampler.

Simulation in training: one-year experience using an efficiency index to assess interventional radiology fellow training status

PURPOSE: To compare objective fellow and expert efficiency indices for an interventional radiology renal artery stenosis skill set with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Mentice VIST simulator was used for three different renal artery stenosis simulations of varying difficulty, which were used to grade performance. Fellows' indices at three intervals throughout 1 year were compared to expert baseline performance. Seventy-four simulated procedures were performed, 63 of which were captured as audiovisual recordings. Three levels of fellow experience were analyzed: 1, 6, and 12 months of dedicated interventional radiology fellowship. The recordings were compiled on a computer workstation and analyzed. Distinct measurable events in the procedures were identified with task analysis, and data regarding efficiency were extracted. Total scores were calculated as the product of procedure time, fluoroscopy time, tools, and contrast agent volume. The lowest scores, which reflected efficient use of tools, radiation, and time, were considered to indicate proficiency. Subjective analysis of participants' procedural errors was not included in this analysis. RESULTS: Fellows' mean scores diminished from 1 month to 12 months (42,960 at 1 month, 18,726 at 6 months, and 9,636 at 12 months). The experts' mean score was 4,660. In addition, the range of variance in score diminished with increasing experience (from a range of 5,940-120,156 at 1 month to 2,436-85,272 at 6 months and 2,160-32,400 at 12 months). Expert scores ranged from 1,450 to 10,800. CONCLUSIONS: Objective efficiency indices for simulated procedures can demonstrate scores directly comparable to the level of clinical experience.

FE-Simulation in der klinischen Osteoporoseforschung

Altersbedingte Osteoporose erhöht des Frakturrisiko. Übliche Diagnoseverfahren basieren auf DXA. Leider sind diese ungenau und erklären oft nicht die Effekte von Behandlungen. Eine neue Methode zur Bestimmung der Knochenfestigkeit beginnt derzeit, sich zu etablieren – die Finite-Elemente-Methode (FEM). Diese universelle, im Bereich der Technik weit verbreitete, Methode erlaubt es, die Diagnose und den Behandlungserfolg besser vorauszusagen als DXA. CT-basierende FE-Modelle sind stark von der Bildauflösung abhängig. In diesem Überblicksartikel werden drei unterschiedliche Modelltypen (μCT, HR-pQCT, QCT) vorgestellt und die Ergebnisse von densitometrischen und FE-Analysen verglichen. Dabei waren die FE-Ergebnisse den densitometrischen immer überlegen. Darüber hinaus erlaubt die FEM die Angabe eines biomechanischen Frakturrisikos. Dieser Vorteil der FE-Methode muss jedoch im Licht der höheren Röntgendosen und Betriebskosten der CT-Bildgebung betrachtet werden. Zukünftig wird die FE-Methode klinisch eine weite Verbreitung finden – die Frage ist nur wann und wie!

Simulation in vascular access surgery

In the last years, simulation training has become widespread in different areas of medicine due to social expectations, political accountability and professional regulation. Different types of simulators allow to improve knowledge, skills, communication and team behavior. Simulation sessions have been proven to shorten the learning curve and allow education in a safe environment. Patients on dialysis are an expanding group. They often suffer from several comorbidities and need complex surgical procedures with regard to their dialysis access. Therefore, education in evidence-based algorithms is as important as teaching of practical skills. In this chapter, we are presenting an overview of available dialysis access training modalities. We are convinced that simulation will become more important in the near future and has a substantial impact on strategies to improve aspects of patient safety. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Simulation in vascular access surgery training.

Rapidly growing technical developments and working time constraints call for changes in trainee formation. In reality, trainees spend fewer hours in the hospital and face more difficulties in acquiring the required qualifications in order to work independently as a specialist. Simulation-based training is a potential solution. It offers the possibility to learn basic technical skills, repeatedly perform key steps in procedures and simulate challenging scenarios in team training. Patients are not at risk and learning curves can be shortened. Advanced learners are able to train rare complications. Senior faculty member's presence is key to assess and debrief effective simulation training. In the field of vascular access surgery, simulation models are available for open as well as endovascular procedures. In this narrative review, we describe the theory of simulation, present simulation models in vascular (access) surgery, discuss the possible benefits for patient safety and the difficulties of implementing simulation in training.

Financial Policies and Dynamic Game Simulation in Poland and Hungary

Recently, steady economic growth rates have been kept in Poland and Hungary. Money supplies are growing rather rapidly in these economies. In large, exchange rates have trends of depreciation. Then, exports and prices show the steady growth rates. It can be thought that per capita GDPs are in the same level and development stages are similar in these two countries. It is assumed that these two economies have the same export market and export goods are competing in it. If one country has an expansion of monetary policy, price increase and interest rate decrease. Then, exchange rate decrease. Exports and GDP will increase through this phenomenon. At the same time, this expanded monetary policy affects another country through the trade. This mutual relationship between two countries can be expressed by the Nash-equilibrium in the Game theory. In this paper, macro-econometric models of Polish and Hungarian economies are built and the Nash- equilibrium is introduced into them.

LiDAR simulation in modelled orchards to optimise the use of terretrial laser scanners and derived vegetative measures

Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technology is beginning to have an impact on agriculture. Canopy volume and/or fruit tree leaf area can be estimated using terrestrial laser sensors based on this technology. However, the use of these devices may have different options depending on the resolution and scanning mode. As a consequence, data accuracy and LiDAR derived parameters are affected by sensor configuration, and may vary according to vegetative characteristics of tree crops. Given this scenario, users and suppliers of these devices need to know how to use the sensor in each case. This paper presents a computer program to determine the best configuration, allowing simulation and evaluation of different LiDAR configurations in various tree structures (or training systems). The ultimate goal is to optimise the use of laser scanners in field operations. The software presented generates a virtual orchard, and then allows the scanning simulation with a laser sensor. Trees are created using a hidden Markov tree (HMT) model. Varying the foliar structure of the orchard the LiDAR simulation was applied to twenty different artificially created orchards with or without leaves from two positions (lateral and zenith). To validate the laser sensor configuration, leaf surface of simulated trees was compared with the parameters obtained by LiDAR measurements: the impacted leaf area, the impacted total area (leaves and wood), and th impacted area in the three outer layers of leaves.

Bruise Simulation in Peach Grading Lines as a tool for designing Improvement Strategies.

The Physical Properties Laboratory (LPF) has been working on the improvement of fruit and vegetable grading lines since 1992'. The experience shows that the improvement of grading lines for decreasing mechanical damages has to be approached from two viewpoints: 1) machinery aggressiveness, and 2) fruit susceptibility. Machinery aggressiveness can be characterized as impact probability for different impact intensities assessed by means of electronic fruits (IS-100) 2,5 . On the other hand, bruise susceptibility can be determined using different laboratory tests. A recent study from LPF4 shows that damage may arise differently in pome and in stone fruits, since: a) pome fruits are mainly stress-susceptible, while stone fruits appear to be more deformation-susceptible, and b) bruise size may be a good predictor for bruise susceptibility in pome fruits while for stone fruits bruise probability is the most relevant characteristic of bruise susceptibility. Also, this study indicates the feasibility of predicting bruise probability using several mechanical and load characterization parameters. Despite the efforts to establish damage thresholds in peachess, no simulation models are currently available for predicting bruise occurrence in grading lines.

Let's Gain More Confidence Of Clinicians With Our Colorful Contours: Blood Flow Simulation In Arteries Using Abaqus & STAR-CCM+

The objective of the current work is to present the results of several numerical simulations of pulsatile blood flow in healthy and diseased arteries and compare with clinical expectations. Different realistic and physiological aspects such as blood flow interaction with arterial walls, effect of heart movement, cardiovascular autoregulation, arterial walls' hyperelasticity and cardiovascular disorders have been incorporated in the models thanks to a direct coupling of Abaqus and STAR-CCM+. Comparisons of implicit and explicit coupling methods in cardiovascular simulations have been discussed. An in-house methodology combined with explicit FSI coupling has reduced considerably calculation time while the simulations stay realistic and reliable for clinicians

Storm surge simulation in transformed coordinates /

"November 1976."

Hydrologic simulation in water-yield analysis /

Mode of access: Internet.

Increasing the use of simulation in business

The nature of Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) and the use of DES in organisations is changing. Two important developments are the use of Visual Interactive Modelling systems and the use of DES in Business Process Management (BPM) projects. Survey research is presented that shows that despite these developments usage of DES remains relatively low due to a lack of knowledge of the benefits of the technique. This paper considers two factors that could lead to a greater achievement and appreciation of the full benefit of DES and thus lead to greater usage. Firstly in relation to using DES to investigate social systems, both in the process of undertaking a simulation project and in the interpretation of the findings a 'soft' approach may generate more knowledge from the DES intervention and thus increase its benefit to businesses. Secondly in order to assess the full range of outcomes of DES the technique could be considered from the perspective of an information processing tool within the organisation. This will allow outcomes to be considered under the three modes of organisational information use of sense making, knowledge creating and decision making which relate to the theoretical areas of knowledge management, organisational learning and decision making respectively. The association of DES with these popular techniques could further increase its usage in business.