Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Optimal choice of electoral preference data

Electoral researchers are so much accustomed to analyzing the choice of the single most preferred party as the left-hand side variable of their models of electoral behavior that they often ignore revealed preference data. Drawing on random utility theory, their models predict electoral behavior at the extensive margin of choice. Since the seminal work of Luce and others on individual choice behavior, however, many social science disciplines (consumer research, labor market research, travel demand, etc.) have extended their inventory of observed preference data with, for instance, multiple paired comparisons, complete or incomplete rankings, and multiple ratings. Eliciting (voter) preferences using these procedures and applying appropriate choice models is known to considerably increase the efficiency of estimates of causal factors in models of (electoral) behavior. In this paper, we demonstrate the efficiency gain when adding additional preference information to first preferences, up to full ranking data. We do so for multi-party systems of different sizes. We use simulation studies as well as empirical data from the 1972 German election study. Comparing the practical considerations for using ranking and single preference data results in suggestions for choice of measurement instruments in different multi-candidate and multi-party settings.

Estudio comparado de las barreras o umbrales electorales implícitos y explícitos en el sistema electoral

"...En el presente estudio se parte, en primera instancia, de la necesaria conceptualización del término, en general y particular, y en función de ello, posteriormente, a su tipificación, sistematización y análisis especifico en Latinoamérica, mientras que ofrece un panorama general de la aplicación de las barreras electorales explicitas en diferentes regiones del mundo, para luego analizar el caso colombiano en general y visualizar el impacto de la implementación de las barreras electorales explícitas a través del acto legislativo 01 de 2003 y sus efectos en los comicios nacionales de 2006."--introducción

What’s information got to do with it? Third-party voting in plurality systems

Although strategic voting theory predicts that the number of parties will not exceed two in single-member district plurality systems, the observed number of parties often does. Previous research suggests that the reason why people vote for third parties is that they possess inaccurate information about the parties’ relative chances of winning. However, research has yet to determine whether third-party voting persists under conditions of accurate information. In this article, we examine whether possessing accurate information prevents individuals from voting for third-placed parties in the 2005 and 2010 British elections. We find that possessing accurate information does not prevent most individuals from voting for third-placed parties and that many voters possess reasonably accurate information regarding the viability of the parties in their constituencies. These findings suggest that arguments emphasizing levels of voter information as a major explanation for why multiparty systems often emerge in plurality systems are exaggerated.

Too difficult to manage, too big to ignore: party choice in multiparty presidential systems

In consensual (proportional) highly fragmented multiparty settings, political parties have two historical choices to make or pathways to follow: i) playing a majoritarian role by offering credible candidates to the head of the executive; or ii) playing the median legislator game. Each of those choices will have important consequences not only for the party system but also for the government. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role played by median legislator parties on coalition management strategies of presidents in a comparative perspective. We analyze in depth the Brazilian case where the Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB) has basically functioned as the median legislator party in Congress by avoiding the approval of extreme policies, both on the left and on the right. Based on an expert survey in Latin America, we built an index of Pmdbismo and identified that there is a positive correlation between partisan fragmentation and median legislator parties. In addition, we investigate the effect of having a median legislator party in the governing coalition. We found that it is cheaper and less difficult for the government to manage the coalition having the median legislative party on board.

Airborne systems laboratory for automation research

This paper presents an Airborne Systems Laboratory for Automation Research. The Airborne Systems Laboratory (ASL) is a Cessna 172 aircraft that has been specially modified and equipped by ARCAA specifically for research in future aircraft automation technologies, including Unmanned Airborne Systems (UAS). This capability has been developed over a long period of time, initially through the hire of aircraft, and finally through the purchase and modification of a dedicated flight-testing capability. The ASL has been equipped with a payload system that includes the provision of secure mounting, power, aircraft state data, flight management system and real-time subsystem. Finally, this system has been deployed in a cost effective platform allowing real-world flight-testing on a range of projects.

Improved algebraic cryptanalysis of QUAD, Bivium and Trivium via graph partitioning on equation systems

We present a novel approach for preprocessing systems of polynomial equations via graph partitioning. The variable-sharing graph of a system of polynomial equations is defined. If such graph is disconnected, then the corresponding system of equations can be split into smaller ones that can be solved individually. This can provide a tremendous speed-up in computing the solution to the system, but is unlikely to occur either randomly or in applications. However, by deleting certain vertices on the graph, the variable-sharing graph could be disconnected in a balanced fashion, and in turn the system of polynomial equations would be separated into smaller systems of near-equal sizes. In graph theory terms, this process is equivalent to finding balanced vertex partitions with minimum-weight vertex separators. The techniques of finding these vertex partitions are discussed, and experiments are performed to evaluate its practicality for general graphs and systems of polynomial equations. Applications of this approach in algebraic cryptanalysis on symmetric ciphers are presented: For the QUAD family of stream ciphers, we show how a malicious party can manufacture conforming systems that can be easily broken. For the stream ciphers Bivium and Trivium, we nachieve significant speedups in algebraic attacks against them, mainly in a partial key guess scenario. In each of these cases, the systems of polynomial equations involved are well-suited to our graph partitioning method. These results may open a new avenue for evaluating the security of symmetric ciphers against algebraic attacks.

Composing services for third-party service delivery

This paper proposes a model-based technique for lowering the entrance barrier for service providers to register services with a marketplace broker, such that the service is rapidly configured to utilize the brokerpsilas local service delivery management components. Specifically, it uses process modeling for supporting the execution steps of a service and shows how service delivery functions (e.g. payment points) ldquolocalrdquo to a service broker can be correctly configured into the process model. By formalizing the different operations in a service delivery function (like payment or settlement) and their allowable execution sequences (full payments must follow partial payments), including cross-function dependencies, it shows how through tool support, the non-technical user can quickly configure service delivery functions in a consistent and complete way.

A review of system safety failure probability objectives for Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are one of a number of emerging aviation sectors. Such new aviation concepts present a significant challenge to National Aviation Authorities (NAAs) charged with ensuring the safety of their operation within the existing airspace system. There is significant heritage in the existing body of aviation safety regulations for Conventionally Piloted Aircraft (CPA). It can be argued that the promulgation of these regulations has delivered a level of safety tolerable to society, thus justifying the “default position” of applying these same standards, regulations and regulatory structures to emerging aviation concepts such as UAS. An example of this is the proposed “1309” regulation for UAS, which is based on the 1309 regulation for CPA. However, the absence of a pilot on-board an unmanned aircraft creates a fundamentally different risk paradigm to that of CPA. An appreciation of these differences is essential to the justification of the “default position” and in turn, to ensure the development of effective safety standards and regulations for UAS. This paper explores the suitability of the proposed “1309” regulation for UAS. A detailed review of the proposed regulation is provided and a number of key assumptions are identified and discussed. A high-level model characterising the expected number of third party fatalities on the ground is then used to determine the impact of these assumptions. The results clearly show that the “one size fits all” approach to the definition of 1309 regulations for UAS, which mandates equipment design and installation requirements independent of where the UAS is to be operated, will not lead to an effective management of the risks.

Briefing paper on eTextbooks and third party eLearning products and their implications for Australian university libraries

The briefing paper was commissioned by the Council of Australian University Librarians (CAUL) to examine the current picture and evolving role of electronic textbooks (eTextbooks) and third party eLearning products in the academic arena. The study reviews industry trends, identifies the major players and considers the different stakeholder perspectives of eTextbook adoption. Within the context of learning and teaching in the digital age, specific areas of research, policy and practice are highlighted to consider the implications that eTextbooks might have for universities in general and for university libraries in particular. An environmental scan focused on the analysis of current developments and the anticipated future directions of digital learning resources in Australia, as well as in other major English speaking countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States. This research guided the development of key interview questions aimed at examining, at a deeper level, diverse stakeholder perspectives about the roles university libraries can play in the adoption of digital learning content.

An investigation approach to test protection intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) in IEC 61850 based substation automation systems (SAS) at station level

This thesis has developed a new approach to trace virtual protection signals in Electrical substation networks. The main goal of the research was to analyse the contents of the virtual signals transferred, using third party software. In doing so, a comprehensive test was done on a distance protection relay, using non-conventional test equipment.

A regional interpretation of rules and good practice for greenhouse accounting : Northern Australian savanna systems

Land-use change, particularly clearing of forests for agriculture, has contributed significantly to the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Concern about the impacts on climate has led to efforts to monitor and curtail the rapid increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Internationally, much of the current focus is on the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Although electing to not ratify the Protocol, Australia, as a party to the UNFCCC, reports on national greenhouse gas emissions, trends in emissions and abatement measures. In this paper we review the complex accounting rules for human activities affecting greenhouse gas fluxes in the terrestrial biosphere and explore implications and potential opportunities for managing carbon in the savanna ecosystems of northern Australia. Savannas in Australia are managed for grazing as well as for cultural and environmental values against a background of extreme climate variability and disturbance, notably fire. Methane from livestock and non-CO2 emissions from burning are important components of the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with management of savannas. International developments in carbon accounting for the terrestrial biosphere bring a requirement for better attribution of change in carbon stocks and more detailed and spatially explicit data on such characteristics of savanna ecosystems as fire regimes, production and type of fuel for burning, drivers of woody encroachment, rates of woody regrowth, stocking rates and grazing impacts. The benefits of improved biophysical information and of understanding the impacts on ecosystem function of natural factors and management options will extend beyond greenhouse accounting to better land management for multiple objectives.

New generation of two-dimensional spintronic systems realized by coupling of Rashba and Dirac fermions

Intriguing phenomena and novel physics predicted for two-dimensional (2D) systems formed by electrons in Dirac or Rashba states motivate an active search for new materials or combinations of the already revealed ones. Being very promising ingredients in themselves, interplaying Dirac and Rashba systems can provide a base for next generation of spintronics devices, to a considerable extent, by mixing their striking properties or by improving technically significant characteristics of each other. Here, we demonstrate that in BiTeI@PbSb2Te4 composed of a BiTeI trilayer on top of the topological insulator (TI) PbSb2Te4 weakly- and strongly-coupled Dirac-Rashba hybrid systems are realized. The coupling strength depends on both interface hexagonal stacking and trilayer-stacking order. The weakly-coupled system can serve as a prototype to examine, e.g., plasmonic excitations, frictional drag, spin-polarized transport, and charge-spin separation effect in multilayer helical metals. In the strongly-coupled regime, within similar to 100 meV energy interval of the bulk TI projected bandgap a helical state substituting for the TI surface state appears. This new state is characterized by a larger momentum, similar velocity, and strong localization within BiTeI. We anticipate that our findings pave the way for designing a new type of spintronics devices based on Rashba-Dirac coupled systems.

Coevolution of capitalism and political representation: The choice of electoral systems

Protocorporatist West European countries in which economic interests were collectively organized adopted PR in the first quarter of the twentieth century, whereas liberal countries in which economic interests were not collectively organized did not. Political parties, as Marcus Kreuzer points out, choose electoral systems. So how do economic interests translate into party political incentives to adopt electoral reform? We argue that parties in protocorporatist countries were representative of and closely linked to economic interests. As electoral competition in single member districts increased sharply up to World War I, great difficulties resulted for the representative parties whose leaders were seen as interest committed. They could not credibly compete for votes outside their interest without leadership changes or reductions in interest influence. Proportional representation offered an obvious solution, allowing parties to target their own voters and their organized interest to continue effective influence in the legislature. In each respect, the opposite was true of liberal countries. Data on party preferences strongly confirm this model. (Kreuzer's historical criticisms are largely incorrect, as shown in detail in the online supplementary Appendix.). © 2010 American Political Science Association.