Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.

Estabilidade térmica dos compostos biologicamente ativos do colostro

Dissertação de Mestrado, Engenharia Biológica, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Minimal clinically meaningful differences for the eortc QLQ-C30 and eortc QLQ-Bn20 scales in brain cancer patients

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the smallest changes in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) scores in the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality of life questionnaire (EORTC QLQ-C30) and the EORTC Brain Cancer Module (QLQ-BN20), which could be considered as clinically meaningful in brain cancer patients. Methods: World Health Organization (WHO) performance status (PS) and the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) were used as clinical anchors to determine minimal clinically important differences (MCID) in HRQOL change scores (range 0 - 100) in the EORTC QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BN20. Anchor-based MCID estimates less than 0.2SD (small effect) were not recommended for interpretation. Other selected distribution-based methods were also used for comparison purposes. Results: Based on WHO PS, our findings support the following whole number estimates of the MCID for improvement and deterioration respectively: physical functioning (6, 9), role functioning (14, 12), cognitive functioning (8, 8), global health status (7, 4*), fatigue (12, 9) and motor dysfunction (4*, 5). Anchoring with MMSE, cognitive functioning MCID estimates for improvement and deterioration were (11, 2*) and those for communication deficit were (9, 7). The estimates with asterisks were less that the set 0.2 SD threshold and are therefore not recommended for interpretation. Our MCID estimates therefore range from 5-14. Conclusion: These estimates can help clinicians to evaluate changes in HRQOL over time and, in conjunction with other measures of efficacy, help to assess the value of a health care intervention or to compare treatments. Furthermore, the estimates can be useful in determining sample sizes in the design of future clinical trials.

Minimal clinically meaningful differences for the EORTC QLQ-C30 and EORTC QLQ-BN20 scales in brain cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the smallest changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) scores in the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire core 30 and the Brain Cancer Module (QLQ-BN20), which could be considered as clinically meaningful in brain cancer patients. Materials and methods: World Health Organisation performance status (PS) and mini-mental state examination (MMSE) were used as clinical anchors appropriate to related subscales to determine the minimal clinically important differences (MCIDs) in HRQoL change scores (range 0-100) in the QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BN20. A threshold of 0.2 standard deviation (SD) (small effect) was used to exclude anchor-based MCID estimates considered too small to inform interpretation. RESULTS: Based on PS, our findings support the following integer estimates of the MCID for improvement and deterioration, respectively: physical (6, 9), role (14, 12), and cognitive functioning (8, 8); global health status (7, 4*), fatigue (12, 9), and motor dysfunction (4*, 5). Anchoring with MMSE, cognitive functioning MCID estimates for improvement and deterioration were (11, 2*) and for communication deficit were (9, 7). Estimates with asterisks were <0.2 SD and were excluded from our MCID range of 5-14. CONCLUSION: These estimates can help clinicians evaluate changes in HRQoL over time, assess the value of a health care intervention and can be useful in determining sample sizes in designing future clinical trials.

Knowledge, processes and relationships in organizational change: Understanding how to facilitate management of intellectual capital in diverse organization structures and cultures.

This study examined relationships of organizational dependencies, change management and developed intellectual knowledge resources, in different intellectual capital based development programs on ICT-sector. Study was carried out in a research context, where high degree of external organizational contingencies existed and lots of changes in several development programs had taken place in the last years. From a scientific perspective the main contribution was that evidence between relationships of organizational dependencies, change model portfolio and developed knowledge resources could be suggested. From managerial perspective the primary implication was that in situations where sustainable competitive advantage is pursued by means of increasing knowledge based productivity of labor, firms should seek to pursue organizational settings where external dependencies have minimal amount of effect.

Production Linkages Between Informal and Formal Activities Considering Domestic and Imported Inputs: an Application of the Minimal-Flow-Analysis Method to Senegal.

We apply to the Senegalese input-output matrix of 1990, disagregated into formal and informal activities, a recently designed structural analytical method (Minimal-Flow-Analysis) which permits to depict the direct and indirect production likanges existing between activities.

Simulating global properties of electroencephalograms with minimal random neural networks

The human electroencephalogram (EEG) is globally characterized by a 1/f power spectrum superimposed with certain peaks, whereby the "alpha peak" in a frequency range of 8-14 Hz is the most prominent one for relaxed states of wakefulness. We present simulations of a minimal dynamical network model of leaky integrator neurons attached to the nodes of an evolving directed and weighted random graph (an Erdos-Renyi graph). We derive a model of the dendritic field potential (DFP) for the neurons leading to a simulated EEG that describes the global activity of the network. Depending on the network size, we find an oscillatory transition of the simulated EEG when the network reaches a critical connectivity. This transition, indicated by a suitably defined order parameter, is reflected by a sudden change of the network's topology when super-cycles are formed from merging isolated loops. After the oscillatory transition, the power spectra of simulated EEG time series exhibit a 1/f continuum superimposed with certain peaks. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Static potential in scalar QED(3) with non-minimal coupling

Here we compute the static potential in scalar QED(3) at leading order in 1/Nf. We show that the addition of a non-minimal coupling of Pauli-type (is an element of(mu nu alpha)j(mu)partial derivative(nu)A(alpha)), although it breaks parity, it does not change the analytic structure of the photon propagator and consequently the static potential remains logarithmic ( confining) at large distances. The non-minimal coupling modifies the potential, however, at small charge separations giving rise to a repulsive force of short range between opposite sign charges, which is relevant for the existence of bound states. This effect is in agreement with a previous calculation based on Moller scattering, but differently from such calculation we show here that the repulsion appears independently of the presence of a tree level Chern-Simons term which rather affects the large distance behaviour of the potential turning it into a constant.

Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2009

Includes bibliography

The economics of climate change in Central America: summary 2010

Includes Bibliography

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

Evaluating minimal important differences for the FACT-Melanoma quality of life questionnaire

Objectives. Minimal Important Differences (MIDs) establish benchmarks for interpreting mean differences in clinical trials involving quality of life outcomes and inform discussions of clinically meaningful change in patient status. As such, the purpose of this study was to assess MIDs for the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy–Melanoma (FACT-M). ^ Methods. A prospective validation study of the FACT-M was performed with 273 patients with stage I to IV melanoma. FACT-M, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG-PS) scores were obtained at baseline and 3 months following enrollment. Anchor- and distribution-based methods were used to assess MIDs, and the correspondence between MID ranges derived from each method was evaluated. ^ Results. This study indicates that an approximate range for MIDs of the FACT-M subscales is between 5 to 8 points for the Trial Outcome Index, 4 to 5 points for the Melanoma Combined Subscale, 2 to 4 points for the Melanoma Subscale, and 1 to 2 points for the Melanoma Surgery Subscale. Each method produced similar but not identical ranges of MIDs. ^ Conclusions. The properties of the anchor instrument employed to derive MIDs directly affect resulting MID ranges and point values. When MIDs are offered as supportive evidence of a clinically meaningful change, the anchor instrument used to derive thresholds should be clearly stated along with evidence supporting the choice of anchor instrument as the most appropriate for the domain of interest. In this analysis, the KPS was a more appropriate measure than the ECOG-PS for assessing MIDs. ^