Future water quality monitoring--adapting tools to deal with mixtures of pollutants in water resource management.

Environmental quality monitoring of water resources is challenged with providing the basis for safeguarding the environment against adverse biological effects of anthropogenic chemical contamination from diffuse and point sources. While current regulatory efforts focus on monitoring and assessing a few legacy chemicals, many more anthropogenic chemicals can be detected simultaneously in our aquatic resources. However, exposure to chemical mixtures does not necessarily translate into adverse biological effects nor clearly shows whether mitigation measures are needed. Thus, the question which mixtures are present and which have associated combined effects becomes central for defining adequate monitoring and assessment strategies. Here we describe the vision of the international, EU-funded project SOLUTIONS, where three routes are explored to link the occurrence of chemical mixtures at specific sites to the assessment of adverse biological combination effects. First of all, multi-residue target and non-target screening techniques covering a broader range of anticipated chemicals co-occurring in the environment are being developed. By improving sensitivity and detection limits for known bioactive compounds of concern, new analytical chemistry data for multiple components can be obtained and used to characterise priority mixtures. This information on chemical occurrence will be used to predict mixture toxicity and to derive combined effect estimates suitable for advancing environmental quality standards. Secondly, bioanalytical tools will be explored to provide aggregate bioactivity measures integrating all components that produce common (adverse) outcomes even for mixtures of varying compositions. The ambition is to provide comprehensive arrays of effect-based tools and trait-based field observations that link multiple chemical exposures to various environmental protection goals more directly and to provide improved in situ observations for impact assessment of mixtures. Thirdly, effect-directed analysis (EDA) will be applied to identify major drivers of mixture toxicity. Refinements of EDA include the use of statistical approaches with monitoring information for guidance of experimental EDA studies. These three approaches will be explored using case studies at the Danube and Rhine river basins as well as rivers of the Iberian Peninsula. The synthesis of findings will be organised to provide guidance for future solution-oriented environmental monitoring and explore more systematic ways to assess mixture exposures and combination effects in future water quality monitoring.

The SOLUTIONS project: challenges and responses for present and future emerging pollutants in land and water resources management.

SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case study basins and to assist future review of priority pollutants under the WFD as well as potential abatement options.

Analysing the complexity of the model-based decision making processes within the industrial management context

PURPOSE The decision-making process plays a key role in organizations. Every decision-making process produces a final choice that may or may not prompt action. Recurrently, decision makers find themselves in the dichotomous question of following a traditional sequence decision-making process where the output of a decision is used as the input of the next stage of the decision, or following a joint decision-making approach where several decisions are taken simultaneously. The implication of the decision-making process will impact different players of the organization. The choice of the decision- making approach becomes difficult to find, even with the current literature and practitioners’ knowledge. The pursuit of better ways for making decisions has been a common goal for academics and practitioners. Management scientists use different techniques and approaches to improve different types of decisions. The purpose of this decision is to use the available resources as well as possible (data and techniques) to achieve the objectives of the organization. The developing and applying of models and concepts may be helpful to solve managerial problems faced every day in different companies. As a result of this research different decision models are presented to contribute to the body of knowledge of management science. The first models are focused on the manufacturing industry and the second part of the models on the health care industry. Despite these models being case specific, they serve the purpose of exemplifying that different approaches to the problems and could provide interesting results. Unfortunately, there is no universal recipe that could be applied to all the problems. Furthermore, the same model could deliver good results with certain data and bad results for other data. A framework to analyse the data before selecting the model to be used is presented and tested in the models developed to exemplify the ideas. METHODOLOGY As the first step of the research a systematic literature review on the joint decision is presented, as are the different opinions and suggestions of different scholars. For the next stage of the thesis, the decision-making process of more than 50 companies was analysed in companies from different sectors in the production planning area at the Job Shop level. The data was obtained using surveys and face-to-face interviews. The following part of the research into the decision-making process was held in two application fields that are highly relevant for our society; manufacturing and health care. The first step was to study the interactions and develop a mathematical model for the replenishment of the car assembly where the problem of “Vehicle routing problem and Inventory” were combined. The next step was to add the scheduling or car production (car sequencing) decision and use some metaheuristics such as ant colony and genetic algorithms to measure if the behaviour is kept up with different case size problems. A similar approach is presented in a production of semiconductors and aviation parts, where a hoist has to change from one station to another to deal with the work, and a jobs schedule has to be done. However, for this problem simulation was used for experimentation. In parallel, the scheduling of operating rooms was studied. Surgeries were allocated to surgeons and the scheduling of operating rooms was analysed. The first part of the research was done in a Teaching hospital, and for the second part the interaction of uncertainty was added. Once the previous problem had been analysed a general framework to characterize the instance was built. In the final chapter a general conclusion is presented. FINDINGS AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS The first part of the contributions is an update of the decision-making literature review. Also an analysis of the possible savings resulting from a change in the decision process is made. Then, the results of the survey, which present a lack of consistency between what the managers believe and the reality of the integration of their decisions. In the next stage of the thesis, a contribution to the body of knowledge of the operation research, with the joint solution of the replenishment, sequencing and inventory problem in the assembly line is made, together with a parallel work with the operating rooms scheduling where different solutions approaches are presented. In addition to the contribution of the solving methods, with the use of different techniques, the main contribution is the framework that is proposed to pre-evaluate the problem before thinking of the techniques to solve it. However, there is no straightforward answer as to whether it is better to have joint or sequential solutions. Following the proposed framework with the evaluation of factors such as the flexibility of the answer, the number of actors, and the tightness of the data, give us important hints as to the most suitable direction to take to tackle the problem. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS AND AVENUES FOR FUTURE RESEARCH In the first part of the work it was really complicated to calculate the possible savings of different projects, since in many papers these quantities are not reported or the impact is based on non-quantifiable benefits. The other issue is the confidentiality of many projects where the data cannot be presented. For the car assembly line problem more computational power would allow us to solve bigger instances. For the operation research problem there was a lack of historical data to perform a parallel analysis in the teaching hospital. In order to keep testing the decision framework it is necessary to keep applying more case studies in order to generalize the results and make them more evident and less ambiguous. The health care field offers great opportunities since despite the recent awareness of the need to improve the decision-making process there are many opportunities to improve. Another big difference with the automotive industry is that the last improvements are not spread among all the actors. Therefore, in the future this research will focus more on the collaboration between academia and the health care sector.

A total system approach to sustainable pest management

A fundamental shift to a total system approach for crop protection is urgently needed to resolve escalating economic and environmental consequences of combating agricultural pests. Pest management strategies have long been dominated by quests for “silver bullet” products to control pest outbreaks. However, managing undesired variables in ecosystems is similar to that for other systems, including the human body and social orders. Experience in these fields substantiates the fact that therapeutic interventions into any system are effective only for short term relief because these externalities are soon “neutralized” by countermoves within the system. Long term resolutions can be achieved only by restructuring and managing these systems in ways that maximize the array of “built-in” preventive strengths, with therapeutic tactics serving strictly as backups to these natural regulators. To date, we have failed to incorporate this basic principle into the mainstream of pest management science and continue to regress into a foot race with nature. In this report, we establish why a total system approach is essential as the guiding premise of pest management and provide arguments as to how earlier attempts for change and current mainstream initiatives generally fail to follow this principle. We then draw on emerging knowledge about multitrophic level interactions and other specific findings about management of ecosystems to propose a pivotal redirection of pest management strategies that would honor this principle and, thus, be sustainable. Finally, we discuss the potential immense benefits of such a central shift in pest management philosophy.

Regional safety program management seminars. Volume I of II. Final report.

National Highway Safety Bureau, Washington, D.C.

Understanding service experience in non-profit performing arts: Implications for operations and service management

Recent research in the non-profit performing arts has shown that marketing efforts designed to increase revenue from ticket sales are not achieving the results required to sustain the performing arts. This paper applies operations management analytical techniques to the non-profit performing arts to increase understanding of operational issues and inform service management strategy. The paper takes a two-study idiographic approach. Implementing a modified version of service transaction analysis (STA), Study One describes a performing arts service from provider and customer perspectives, identifies service gaps and develops an elaborated service description incorporating both perspectives. In Study Two, building on the elaborated service description and extant research, in-depth interviews are conducted to gather thick descriptions of predictors of satisfaction, value and service quality as they relate to repurchase intention (RI). Technical, functional and critical factors required to improve organizational performance are identified. Implications for operational strategy, service design and service management theory for this context are discussed. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Business education in operations management

This paper examines trends in the practice of Operations Management and in teaching the field in major Business Schools. Operations Management has been defined as the design and management of transformation processes that create value for society. The operations function is the one function directly involved in that transformation, and hence is directly responsible for the activities that justify the existence of the firm, both economically and as a value-creating organization in society. The top rated schools in Operations Management are the top-rated research-intensive Business Schools in the world. Operations Management is an area that has been undergoing rapid change in response to changes in business practices worldwide. It is at the heart of changes of which the AACSB report Management Education at Risk, August 2002 (p 20), comments of Business Schools in general: ‘With regard to global relevance (of Business Schools), the complex opportunities and challenges that emanate from the world scope of operations, outsourcing, supply chains, partnerships, and financial and consumer markets – all linked in real time through the Internet – are not reflected adequately in curricula and learning approaches.’ Products, and even services, depend increasingly on advanced technology. This is true globally and especially so for countries in South East and East Asia, from which Australian Universities draw a significant number of students. Services operations management has become much more important, while there are both educational and industrial needs in management science or operations research.

The knowledge-based perspective of risk management in healthcare organisations

The aim of this research is to investigate how risk management in a healthcare organisation can be supported by knowledge management. The subject of research is the development and management of existing logs called "risk registers", through specific risk management processes employed in a N.H.S. (Foundation) Trust in England, in the U.K. Existing literature on organisational risk management stresses the importance of knowledge for the effective implementation of risk management programmes, claiming that knowledge used to perceive risk is biased by the beliefs of individuals and groups involved in risk management and therefore is considered incomplete. Further, literature on organisational knowledge management presents several definitions and categorisations of knowledge and approaches for knowledge manipulation in the organisational context as a whole. However, there is no specific approach regarding "how to deal" with knowledge in the course of organisational risk management. The research is based on a single case study, on a N.H.S. (Foundation) Trust, is influenced by principles of interpretivism and the frame of mind of Soft Systems Methodology (S.S.M.) to investigate the management of risk registers, from the viewpoint of people involved in the situation. Data revealed that knowledge about risks and about the existing risk management policy and procedures is situated in several locations in the Trust and is neither consolidated nor present where and when required. This study proposes a framework that identifies required knowledge for each of the risk management processes and outlines methods for conversion of this knowledge, based on the SECI knowledge conversion model, and activities to facilitate knowledge conversion so that knowledge is effectively used for the development of risk registers and the monitoring of risks throughout the whole Trust under study. This study has theoretical impact in the management science literature as it addresses the issue of incomplete knowledge raised in the risk management literature using concepts of the knowledge management literature, such as the knowledge conversion model. In essence, the combination of required risk and risk management related knowledge with the required type of communication for risk management creates the proposed methods for the support of each risk management process for the risk registers. Further, the indication of the importance of knowledge in risk management and the presentation of a framework that consolidates knowledge required for the risk management processes and proposes way(s) for the communication of this knowledge within a healthcare organisation have practical impact in the management of healthcare organisations.

Leadership and management research in Africa:a synthesis and suggestions for future research

Although we are aware of some positive cases of leadership and management emerging on the African continent, very little empirical or theoretical work has addressed leadership and management in Africa. This raises a challenge for African nations in that ultimately a country's economic performance is contingent on the effectiveness of its leadership and management practices that serve to unlock the potential of its workforce to effectively implement the strategic goals of organizations. Against the backdrop of an increasingly knowledge-dependent global marketplace, the centrality of leadership and effective management systems as drivers of individual and organization performance has never been more critical. This special section brings together a compendium of papers that advances the science of leadership and management within the African context. Our principle goal was to examine what is unique, what generalizes, and what does not generalize from the West and East to Africa, as well as within different regions of Africa and then offer ideas to guide future research and practice. The papers in this section provide a broad and indeed innovative approach to studying leadership and management in Africa by including historical, philosophical, economic, and socio-political perspectives, as part of the analyses of leadership and management in the African context. Our editorial provides an integration of this work and a launching point for some audacious goals for future leadership and management science and practice in Africa and beyond. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Non perennial Mediterranean Rivers in Europe: Status, pressurs, and challanges for research and management

Non-perennial rivers and streams (NPRS) cover >50% of the global river network. They are particularly predominant in Mediterranean Europe as a result of dry climate conditions, climate change and land use development. Historically, both scientists and policy makers underestimated the importance of NRPS for nature and humans alike, mainly because they have been considered as systems of low ecological and economic value. During the past decades, diminishing water resources have increased the spatial and temporal extent of artificial NPRS as well as their exposure to multiple stressors, which threatening their ecological integrity, biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the structural and functional characteristics of NPRS in the European Mediterranean, and discuss gaps and problems in their management, concerning their typology, ecological assessment, legislative and policy protection, and incorporation in River Basin Management Plans. Because NPRS comprise highly unstable ecosystems, with strong and often unpredictable temporal and spatial variability - at least as far as it is possible to assess - we outline the future research needs required to better understand, manage and conserve them as highly valuable and sensitive ecosystems. Efficient collaborative activities among multidisciplinary research groups aiming to create innovative knowledge, water managers and policy makers are urgently needed in order to establish an appropriate methodological and legislative background. The incorporation of NPRS in EU-Med River Basin Management Plans in combination with the application of ecological flows is a first step towards enhancing NPRS management and conservation in order to effectively safeguard these highly valuable albeit threatened ecosystems

The distribution of the sample minimum-variance frontier

In this paper, we present a finite sample analysis of the sample minimum-variance frontier under the assumption that the returns are independent and multivariate normally distributed. We show that the sample minimum-variance frontier is a highly biased estimator of the population frontier, and we propose an improved estimator of the population frontier. In addition, we provide the exact distribution of the out-of-sample mean and variance of sample minimum-variance portfolios. This allows us to understand the impact of estimation error on the performance of in-sample optimal portfolios. Key Words: minimum-variance frontier; efficiency set constants; finite sample distribution

Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grains

BACKGROUND: The presence of insects in stored grains is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspections of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and therefore to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grains, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper we demonstrate a sampling methodology that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grains. RESULTS: We show that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling program to detect insects in bulk grains. Our results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. We also demonstrate that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grains increases as the number of sub-samples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models.

Communications and learning structures that facilitate transfer of knowledge at innovation transition points

Innovation processes are rarely smooth and disruptions often occur at transition points were one knowledge domain passes the technology on to another domain. At these transition points communication is a key component in assisting the smooth hand over of technologies. However for smooth transitions to occur we argue that appropriate structures have to be in place and boundary spanning activities need to be facilitated. This paper presents three case studies of innovation processes and the findings support the view that structures and boundary spanning are essential for smooth transitions. We have explained the need to pass primary responsibility between agents to successfully bring an innovation to market. We have also shown the need to combine knowledge through effective communication so that absorptive capacity is built in process throughout the organisation rather than in one or two key individuals.

Modeling train delays in urban networks

The reliability of urban passenger trains is a critical performance measure for passenger satisfaction and ultimately market share. A delay to one train in a peak period can have a severe effect on the schedule adherence of other trains. This paper presents an analytically based model to quantify the expected positive delay for individual passenger trains and track links in an urban rail network. The model specifically addresses direct delay to trains, knock-on delays to other trains, and delays at scheduled connections. A solution to the resultant system of equations is found using an iterative refinement algorithm. Model validation, which is carried out using a real-life suburban train network consisting of 157 trains, shows the model estimates to be on average within 8% of those obtained from a large scale simulation. Also discussed, is the application of the model to assess the consequences of increased scheduled slack time as well as investment strategies designed to reduce delay.