Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grains


Autoria(s): Elmouttie, David; Kiemeier, Andreas; Hamilton, Grant S.
Data(s)

16/08/2010

Resumo

BACKGROUND: The presence of insects in stored grains is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspections of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and therefore to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grains, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper we demonstrate a sampling methodology that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grains. RESULTS: We show that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling program to detect insects in bulk grains. Our results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. We also demonstrate that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grains increases as the number of sub-samples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models.

Formato

application/pdf

application/pdf

Identificador

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/37717/

Publicador

John Wiley & Sons

Relação

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/37717/1/pdf

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/37717/2/37717.pdf

DOI:10.1002/ps.2009

Elmouttie, David, Kiemeier, Andreas, & Hamilton, Grant S. (2010) Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grains. Pest Management Science.

Direitos

Copyright 2010 John Wiley

Fonte

Biogeoscience; Faculty of Science and Technology

Palavras-Chave #070308 Crop and Pasture Protection (Pests Diseases and Weeds) #Grains #Stored product pests #Heterogeneity #Sampling #Probability of detection
Tipo

Journal Article