Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a major component of the large-scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow-dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the jet is weakened or split it is both less persistent and less predictable. The lack of predictability manifests itself as the onset of an anomalously large instantaneous rate of spread of ensemble forecast members as the jet becomes weakened. This suggests that as the jet weakens or splits it enters into a state more sensitive to small differences between ensemble forecast members, rather like the sensitive region between the wings of the Lorenz attractor.

Implications of model error for numerical climate prediction

Numerical climate models constitute the best available tools to tackle the problem of climate prediction. Two assumptions lie at the heart of their suitability: (1) a climate attractor exists, and (2) the numerical climate model's attractor lies on the actual climate attractor, or at least on the projection of the climate attractor on the model's phase space. In this contribution, the Lorenz '63 system is used both as a prototype system and as an imperfect model to investigate the implications of the second assumption. By comparing results drawn from the Lorenz '63 system and from numerical weather and climate models, the implications of using imperfect models for the prediction of weather and climate are discussed. It is shown that the imperfect model's orbit and the system's orbit are essentially different, purely due to model error and not to sensitivity to initial conditions. Furthermore, if a model is a perfect model, then the attractor, reconstructed by sampling a collection of initialised model orbits (forecast orbits), will be invariant to forecast lead time. This conclusion provides an alternative method for the assessment of climate models.

Estimating Lorenz's reference state in an ocean with a nonlinear equation of state for seawater

The study of the mechanical energy budget of the oceans using Lorenz available potential energy (APE) theory is based on knowledge of the adiabatically re-arranged Lorenz reference state of minimum potential energy. The compressible and nonlinear character of the equation of state for seawater has been thought to cause the reference state to be ill-defined, casting doubt on the usefulness of APE theory for investigating ocean energetics under realistic conditions. Using a method based on the volume frequency distribution of parcels as a function of temperature and salinity in the context of the seawater Boussinesq approximation, which we illustrate using climatological data, we show that compressibility effects are in fact minor. The reference state can be regarded as a well defined one-dimensional function of depth, which forms a surface in temperature, salinity and density space between the surface and the bottom of the ocean. For a very small proportion of water masses, this surface can be multivalued and water parcels can have up to two statically stable levels in the reference density profile, of which the shallowest is energetically more accessible. Classifying parcels from the surface to the bottom gives a different reference density profile than classifying in the opposite direction. However, this difference is negligible. We show that the reference state obtained by standard sorting methods is equivalent, though computationally more expensive, to the volume frequency distribution approach. The approach we present can be applied systematically and in a computationally efficient manner to investigate the APE budget of the ocean circulation using models or climatological data.

Comparing hybrid data assimilation methods on the Lorenz 1963 model with increasing nonlinearity

We systematically compare the performance of ETKF-4DVAR, 4DVAR-BEN and 4DENVAR with respect to two traditional methods (4DVAR and ETKF) and an ensemble transform Kalman smoother (ETKS) on the Lorenz 1963 model. We specifically investigated this performance with increasing nonlinearity and using a quasi-static variational assimilation algorithm as a comparison. Using the analysis root mean square error (RMSE) as a metric, these methods have been compared considering (1) assimilation window length and observation interval size and (2) ensemble size to investigate the influence of hybrid background error covariance matrices and nonlinearity on the performance of the methods. For short assimilation windows with close to linear dynamics, it has been shown that all hybrid methods show an improvement in RMSE compared to the traditional methods. For long assimilation window lengths in which nonlinear dynamics are substantial, the variational framework can have diffculties fnding the global minimum of the cost function, so we explore a quasi-static variational assimilation (QSVA) framework. Of the hybrid methods, it is seen that under certain parameters, hybrid methods which do not use a climatological background error covariance do not need QSVA to perform accurately. Generally, results show that the ETKS and hybrid methods that do not use a climatological background error covariance matrix with QSVA outperform all other methods due to the full flow dependency of the background error covariance matrix which also allows for the most nonlinearity.

A non-autonomous strongly damped wave equation: Existence and continuity of the pullback attractor

In this paper we consider the strongly damped wave equation with time-dependent terms u(tt) - Delta u - gamma(t)Delta u(t) + beta(epsilon)(t)u(t) = f(u), in a bounded domain Omega subset of R(n), under some restrictions on beta(epsilon)(t), gamma(t) and growth restrictions on the nonlinear term f. The function beta(epsilon)(t) depends on a parameter epsilon, beta(epsilon)(t) -> 0. We will prove, under suitable assumptions, local and global well-posedness (using the uniform sectorial operators theory), the existence and regularity of pullback attractors {A(epsilon)(t) : t is an element of R}, uniform bounds for these pullback attractors, characterization of these pullback attractors and their upper and lower semicontinuity at epsilon = 0. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global attractor for a model of extensible beam with nonlinear damping and source terms

This paper is concerned with the existence of a global attractor for the nonlinear beam equation, with nonlinear damping and source terms, u(tt) + Delta(2)u -M (integral(Omega)vertical bar del u vertical bar(2)dx) Delta u + f(u) + g(u(t)) = h in Omega x R(+), where Omega is a bounded domain of R(N), M is a nonnegative real function and h is an element of L(2)(Omega). The nonlinearities f(u) and g(u(t)) are essentially vertical bar u vertical bar(rho) u - vertical bar u vertical bar(sigma) u and vertical bar u(t)vertical bar(r) u(t) respectively, with rho, sigma, r > 0 and sigma < rho. This kind of problem models vibrations of extensible beams and plates. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regularity of solutions on the global attractor for a semilinear damped wave equation

We consider attractors A(eta), eta epsilon [0, 1], corresponding to a singularly perturbed damped wave equation u(tt) + 2 eta A(1/2)u(t) + au(t) + Au = f (u) in H-0(1)(Omega) x L-2 (Omega), where Omega is a bounded smooth domain in R-3. For dissipative nonlinearity f epsilon C-2(R, R) satisfying vertical bar f ``(s)vertical bar <= c(1 + vertical bar s vertical bar) with some c > 0, we prove that the family of attractors {A(eta), eta >= 0} is upper semicontinuous at eta = 0 in H1+s (Omega) x H-s (Omega) for any s epsilon (0, 1). For dissipative f epsilon C-3 (R, R) satisfying lim(vertical bar s vertical bar) (->) (infinity) f ``(s)/s = 0 we prove that the attractor A(0) for the damped wave equation u(tt) + au(t) + Au = f (u) (case eta = 0) is bounded in H-4(Omega) x H-3(Omega) and thus is compact in the Holder spaces C2+mu ((Omega) over bar) x C1+mu((Omega) over bar) for every mu epsilon (0, 1/2). As a consequence of the uniform bounds we obtain that the family of attractors {A(eta), eta epsilon [0, 1]} is upper and lower semicontinuous in C2+mu ((Omega) over bar) x C1+mu ((Omega) over bar) for every mu epsilon (0, 1/2). (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fitting Lorenz curves

This paper presents a functional form, linear in the parameters, to deal with income distribution and Lorenz curves. The function is fitted to the Brazilian income distribution. Data standard deviations were estimated from year-to-year variation of the income share. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Mismatch-Based Model for Memory Reconsolidation and Extinction in Attractor Networks

OSAN, R. , TORT, A. B. L. , AMARAL, O. B. . A mismatch-based model for memory reconsolidation and extinction in attractor networks. Plos One, v. 6, p. e23113, 2011.

Dynamics at infinity and the existence of singularly degenerate heteroclinic cycles in the Lorenz system

In this paper, by using the Poincare compactification in R(3) we make a global analysis of the Lorenz system, including the complete description of its dynamic behavior on the sphere at infinity. Combining analytical and numerical techniques we show that for the parameter value b = 0 the system presents an infinite set of singularly degenerate heteroclinic cycles, which consist of invariant sets formed by a line of equilibria together with heteroclinic orbits connecting two of the equilibria. The dynamical consequences related to the existence of such cycles are discussed. In particular a possibly new mechanism behind the creation of Lorenz-like chaotic attractors, consisting of the change in the stability index of the saddle at the origin as the parameter b crosses the null value, is proposed. Based on the knowledge of this mechanism we have numerically found chaotic attractors for the Lorenz system in the case of small b > 0, so nearby the singularly degenerate heteroclinic cycles.

Global dynamics of the Rikitake system

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

GLOBAL DYNAMICS of THE LORENZ SYSTEM WITH INVARIANT ALGEBRAIC SURFACES

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A controller design used in Lorenz synchronization chaotic system for secure communication based on LMI fuzzy control system

This paper describes a mathematical study about chaotic system and about the unified approach of chaos control via fuzzy control system based in Linear Matrix Inequality to design a controller which synchronizes the transmission/reception system. This system, that was based in Lorenz chaotic circuit, can be used for transmit signals in secure way.

Dissipative three-wave structures in stimulated backscattering. I. A subluminous solitary attractor

We present a solitary solution of the three-wave nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) model - governing resonant space-time stimulated Brillouin or Raman backscattering - in the presence of a cw pump and dissipative material and Stokes waves. The study is motivated by pulse formation in optical fiber experiments. As a result of the instability any initial bounded Stokes signal is amplified and evolves to a subluminous backscattered Stokes pulse whose shape and velocity are uniquely determined by the damping coefficients and the cw-pump level. This asymptotically stable solitary three-wave structure is an attractor for any initial conditions in a compact support, in contrast to the known superluminous dissipative soliton solution which calls for an unbounded support. The linear asymptotic theory based on the Kolmogorov-Petrovskii-Piskunov assertion allows us to determine analytically the wave-front slope and the subluminous velocity, which are in remarkable agreement with the numerical computation of the nonlinear PDE model when the dynamics attains the asymptotic steady regime. © 1997 The American Physical Society.

3-Dimensional hopf bifurcation via averaging theory

We consider the Lorenz system ẋ = σ(y - x), ẏ = rx - y - xz and ż = -bz + xy; and the Rössler system ẋ = -(y + z), ẏ = x + ay and ż = b - cz + xz. Here, we study the Hopf bifurcation which takes place at q± = (±√br - b,±√br - b, r - 1), in the Lorenz case, and at s± = (c+√c2-4ab/2, -c+√c2-4ab/2a, c±√c2-4ab/2a) in the Rössler case. As usual this Hopf bifurcation is in the sense that an one-parameter family in ε of limit cycles bifurcates from the singular point when ε = 0. Moreover, we can determine the kind of stability of these limit cycles. In fact, for both systems we can prove that all the bifurcated limit cycles in a neighborhood of the singular point are either a local attractor, or a local repeller, or they have two invariant manifolds, one stable and the other unstable, which locally are formed by two 2-dimensional cylinders. These results are proved using averaging theory. The method of studying the Hopf bifurcation using the averaging theory is relatively general and can be applied to other 3- or n-dimensional differential systems.