959 resultados para LIKELIHOOD PRINCIPLE


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Recessions impact the retail sector and as such research into consumer decision making during such times is imperative. In response to this, our study takes an innovative approach to examining how the perceived importance of retail store categories in a shopping mall influences the relationship between consumers' shopping attitudes and likelihood of purchasing in those categories during a recession. The overall findings show the importance of a product category to a consumer, which is often overlooked, has a strong explanatory influence on consumer purchase intentions for that specific retail store categories in a shopping mall under recession conditions. Findings also show that for consumers’ who have altered their shopping behaviour the perceived importance of a retail store category fully mediates the relationship for: Majors, Leisure, Food Catered and Mini Majors categories, and partial mediation for Apparel. Importance has no mediating effect for: Food Retail, General Retail, Mobile Phone Services, Home wares, and Retail Services. Our study makes a key contribution to the retail management literature with the findings suggesting that redefining and articulating the importance of the value offering for specific retail store categories can help reduce the impact of changes in consumers' recessionary shopping intentions across the mall tenant mix. Such actions can then help preserve the image of the shopping mall in the minds of the consumers when the economic recovery begins.

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Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers’ sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines.

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Australian research on Indigenous sentencing disparities of the standard of international work is somewhat recent. Contrary to expectations based on international research, Australian studies generally have not found Indigenous offenders to be treated substantively more harshly than non-Indigenous offenders in similar circumstances. However, this research has primarily focused on adult higher courts, with little attention to lower courts and children’s courts. In this article, we examine whether Indigeneity has a direct impact on the judicial decision to incarcerate for three courts (adult higher, adult lower, children’s higher court) in Queensland. We found no significant differences in the likelihood of a sentence of incarceration in the higher courts (adult and children’s). In contrast, in the lower courts, Indigenous defendants were more likely to be imprisoned than non-Indigenous defendants when sentenced under statistically similar circumstances.

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Late discovery is a term used to describe the experience of discovering the truth of one’s genetic origins as an adult. Following discovery, late discoverers face a lack of recognition and acknowledgment of their concerns from family, friends, community and institutions. They experience pain, anger, loss, grief and frustration. This presentation shares the findings of the first qualitative study of both late discovery of adoptive and donor insemination offspring (heterosexual couple use only) experiences. It is also the first study of late discovery experiences undertaken from an ethical perspective. While this study recruited new participants, it also included an ethical re-analysis of existing late discovery accounts across both practices. The findings of this study (a) draws links between past adoption and current donor insemination (heterosexual couple only) practices, (b) reveals that late discoverers are demanding acknowledgment and recognition of the particularity of their experiences, and (c) offers insights into conceptual understandings of the ‘best interests of the child’ principle. These insights derive from the lived experiences of those whose biological and social worlds have been sundered and secrecy and denial of difference used to conceal this. It suggests that acknowledging the equal moral status of the child may be useful in strengthening conceptual understandings of the ‘best interests of the child’ principle. This equal moral status involves ensuring that personal autonomy and the ability to exercise free will is protected; that the integrity of the relationships of trust expected and demanded between parent/s and children is defended and supported; and that equal access to normative socio-cultural practices, that is; non-fictionalised birth certificates and open records, is guaranteed.

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This paper presents a novel technique for segmenting an audio stream into homogeneous regions according to speaker identities, background noise, music, environmental and channel conditions. Audio segmentation is useful in audio diarization systems, which aim to annotate an input audio stream with information that attributes temporal regions of the audio into their specific sources. The segmentation method introduced in this paper is performed using the Generalized Likelihood Ratio (GLR), computed between two adjacent sliding windows over preprocessed speech. This approach is inspired by the popular segmentation method proposed by the pioneering work of Chen and Gopalakrishnan, using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) with an expanding search window. This paper will aim to identify and address the shortcomings associated with such an approach. The result obtained by the proposed segmentation strategy is evaluated on the 2002 Rich Transcription (RT-02) Evaluation dataset, and a miss rate of 19.47% and a false alarm rate of 16.94% is achieved at the optimal threshold.

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Schizophrenia is often characterised by diminished self-experience. This article describes the development and principles of a manual for a psychotherapeutic treatment model that aims to enhance self-experience in people diagnosed with schizophrenia. Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy draws upon dialogical theory of self and the work of Lysaker and colleagues, in conjunction with narrative principles of therapy as operationalised by Vromans. To date, no manual for a metacognitive narrative approach to the treatment of schizophrenia exists. After a brief description of narrative understandings of schizophrenia, the development of the manual is described. Five general phases of treatment are outlined: (1) developing a therapeutic relationship; (2) eliciting narratives; (3) enhancing metacognitive capacity; (4) enriching narratives, and; (5) living enriched narratives. Proscribed practices are also described. Examples of therapeutic interventions and dialogue are provided to further explain the application of interventions in-session. The manual has been piloted in a study investigating the effectiveness of Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy in the treatment of people diagnosed with schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

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This paper proposes the use of Bayesian approaches with the cross likelihood ratio (CLR) as a criterion for speaker clustering within a speaker diarization system, using eigenvoice modeling techniques. The CLR has previously been shown to be an effective decision criterion for speaker clustering using Gaussian mixture models. Recently, eigenvoice modeling has become an increasingly popular technique, due to its ability to adequately represent a speaker based on sparse training data, as well as to provide an improved capture of differences in speaker characteristics. The integration of eigenvoice modeling into the CLR framework to capitalize on the advantage of both techniques has also been shown to be beneficial for the speaker clustering task. Building on that success, this paper proposes the use of Bayesian methods to compute the conditional probabilities in computing the CLR, thus effectively combining the eigenvoice-CLR framework with the advantages of a Bayesian approach to the diarization problem. Results obtained on the 2002 Rich Transcription (RT-02) Evaluation dataset show an improved clustering performance, resulting in a 33.5% relative improvement in the overall Diarization Error Rate (DER) compared to the baseline system.

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This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Case study: Estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens Models and methods Data analysis and results Discussion References

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Historical information can be used, in addition to pedigree, traits and genotypes, to map quantitative trait locus (QTL) in general populations via maximum likelihood estimation of variance components. This analysis is known as linkage disequilibrium (LD) and linkage mapping, because it exploits both linkage in families and LD at the population level. The search for QTL in the wild population of Soay sheep on St. Kilda is a proof of principle. We analysed the data from a previous study and confirmed some of the QTLs reported. The most striking result was the confirmation of a QTL affecting birth weight that had been reported using association tests but not when using linkage-based analyses. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010.

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The lack of an obvious “band gap” is a formidable hurdle for making a nanotransistor from graphene. Here, we use density functional calculations to demonstrate for the first time that porosity such as evidenced in recently synthesized porous graphene (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091120084337.htm) opens a band gap. The size of the band gap (3.2 eV) is comparable to most popular photocatalytic titania and graphitic C3N4 materials. In addition, the adsorption of hydrogen on Li-decorated porous graphene is much stronger than that in regular Li-doped graphene due to the natural separation of Li cations, leading to a potential hydrogen storage gravimetric capacity of 12 wt %. In light of the most recent experimental progress on controlled synthesis, these results uncover new potential for the practical application of porous graphene in nanoelectronics and clean energy.

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Approximate Bayesian computation has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical likelihood provides another route to such settings that bypasses simulations from the model and the choices of the approximate Bayesian computation parameters (summary statistics, distance, tolerance), while being convergent in the number of observations. Furthermore, bypassing model simulations may lead to significant time savings in complex models, for instance those found in population genetics. The Bayesian computation with empirical likelihood algorithm we develop in this paper also provides an evaluation of its own performance through an associated effective sample size. The method is illustrated using several examples, including estimation of standard distributions, time series, and population genetics models.

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A quasi-maximum likelihood procedure for estimating the parameters of multi-dimensional diffusions is developed in which the transitional density is a multivariate Gaussian density with first and second moments approximating the true moments of the unknown density. For affine drift and diffusion functions, the moments are exactly those of the true transitional density and for nonlinear drift and diffusion functions the approximation is extremely good and is as effective as alternative methods based on likelihood approximations. The estimation procedure generalises to models with latent factors. A conditioning procedure is developed that allows parameter estimation in the absence of proxies.

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This paper provides an overview of the regulatory developments in the UK which impact on the use of in vitro fertilization (IVF) and embryo screening techniques for the creation of “saviour siblings.” Prior to the changes implemented under the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act 2008, this specific use of IVF was not addressed by the legislative framework and regulated only by way of policy issued by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Following the implementation of the statutory reforms, a number of restrictive conditions are now imposed on the face of the legislation. This paper considers whether there is any justification for restricting access to IVF and pre-implantation tissue typing for the creation of “saviour siblings.” The analysis is undertaken by examining the normative factors that have guided the development of the UK regulatory approach prior to the 2008 legislative reforms. The approach adopted in relation to the “saviour sibling” issue is compared to more general HFEA policy, which has prioritized the notion of reproductive choice and determined that restrictions on access are only justified on the basis of harm considerations.

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Recent experiments [F. E. Pinkerton, M. S. Meyer, G. P. Meisner, M. P. Balogh, and J. J. Vajo, J. Phys. Chem. C 111, 12881 (2007) and J. J. Vajo and G. L. Olson, Scripta Mater. 56, 829 (2007)] demonstrated that the recycling of hydrogen in the coupled LiBH4/MgH2 system is fully reversible. The rehydrogenation of MgB2 is an important step toward the reversibility. By using ab initio density functional theory calculations, we found that the activation barrier for the dissociation of H2 are 0.49 and 0.58 eV for the B and Mg-terminated MgB2(0001) surface, respectively. This implies that the dissociation kinetics of H2 on a MgB2 (0001) surface should be greatly improved compared to that in pure Mg materials. Additionally, the diffusion of dissociated H atom on the Mg-terminated MgB2(0001) surface is almost barrier-less. Our results shed light on the experimentally-observed reversibility and improved kinetics for the coupled LiBH4/MgH2 system.