Vulnerability of stream biota to climate change in mediterranean climate regions: a synthesis of ecological responses and conservation challenges

Freshwater species worldwide are experiencing dramatic declines partly attributable to ongoing climate change. It is expected that the future effects of climate change could be particularly severe in mediterranean climate (med-) regions, which host many endemic species already under great stress from the high level of human development. In this article, we review the climate and climate-induced changes in streams of med-regions and the responses of stream biota, focusing on both observed and anticipated ecological responses. We also discuss current knowledge gaps and conservation challenges. Expected climate alterations have already been observed in the last decades, and include: increased annual average air temperatures; decreased annual average precipitation; hydrologic alterations; and an increase in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme events, such as floods, droughts and fires. Recent observations, which are concordant with forecasts built, show stream biota of med-regions when facing climate changes tend to be displaced towards higher elevations and upper latitudes, communities tend to change their composition and homogenize, while some life-history traits seem to provide biota with resilience and resistance to adapt to the new conditions (as being short-lived, small, and resistant to low streamflow and desiccation). Nevertheless, such responses may be insufficient to cope with current and future environmental changes. Accurate forecasts of biotic changes and possible adaptations are difficult to obtain in med-regions mainly because of the difficulty of distinguishing disturbances due to natural variability from the effects of climate change, particularly regarding hydrology. Long-term studies are needed to disentangle such variability and improve knowledge regarding the ecological responses and the detection of early warning signals to climate change. Investments should focus on taxa beyond fish and macroinvertebrates, and in covering the less studied regions of Chile and South Africa. Scientists, policy makers and water managers must be involved in the climate change dialogue because the freshwater conservation concerns are huge.

Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change

Climate change affects the rate of insect invasions as well as the abundance, distribution and impacts of such invasions on a global scale. Among the principal analytical approaches to predicting and understanding future impacts of biological invasions are Species Distribution Models (SDMs), typically in the form of correlative Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). An underlying assumption of ENMs is that species-environment relationships remain preserved during extrapolations in space and time, although this is widely criticised. The semi-mechanistic modelling platform, CLIMEX, employs a top-down approach using species ecophysiological traits and is able to avoid some of the issues of extrapolation, making it highly applicable to investigating biological invasions in the context of climate change. The tephritid fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) comprise some of the most successful invasive species and serious economic pests around the world. Here we project 12 tephritid species CLIMEX models into future climate scenarios to examine overall patterns of climate suitability and forecast potential distributional changes for this group. We further compare the aggregate response of the group against species-specific responses. We then consider additional drivers of biological invasions to examine how invasion potential is influenced by climate, fruit production and trade indices. Considering the group of tephritid species examined here, climate change is predicted to decrease global climate suitability and to shift the cumulative distribution poleward. However, when examining species-level patterns, the predominant directionality of range shifts for 11 of the 12 species is eastward. Most notably, management will need to consider regional changes in fruit fly species invasion potential where high fruit production, trade indices and predicted distributions of these flies overlap.

The effectiveness of a health versus appearance message on pregnant women's intentions to exercise postpartum : the moderating role of self-monitoring

Despite the confimied health benefits of exercise during the postpartum period, many new mothers are not sufficiently active. The present research aimed to examine the effectiveness of 2 types of messages on intention to exercise after giving birth on 2 groups of pregnant women (low and high self-monitors) using the Theory of Planned Behavior as a theoretical basis. Participants were 2 1 8 pregnant women 1 8 years of age and older (Mean age = 27.9 years, SD = 5.47), and in their second or third trimester. Women completed a demographics questionnaire, a self-monitoring (SM) scale and the Godin Leisure Time Exercise Questionnaire for current and pre-pregnancy exercise levels. They then read one of two brochures, describing either the health or appearance benefits of exercise for postpartum women. Women's attitudes, social norms, perceived behavioral control, and intentions to exercise postpartum were then assessed to determine whether one type of message (health or appearance) was more effective for each group. A MANOVA found no significant effect (p>0.05) for message type, SM, or their interaction. Possible reasons include the fact that the two messages may have been too similar, reading any message about exercise may result in intentions to exercise, or lack of attention given to the brochure. Given the lack of research in this area, more studies are necessary to confirm the present results. Two additional exploratory analyses were conducted. Pearson correlations found higher levels of pre-pregnancy exercise and current exercise to be associated with more positive attitudes, more positive subjective norms, higher perceived behavioral control, and higher intention to exercise postpartum. A hierarchical regression was conducted to determine the predictive utility of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control on intention for each self-monitoring group. Results of the analysis demonstrated the three independent variables significantly predicted intention (p < .001) in both groups, accounting for 58-62% of the variance in intention. For low self-monitors, attitude was the strongest predictor of intention, followed by perceived behavioral control and subjective norm. For high self-monitors, perceived behavioral control was the strongest predictors, followed by attitudes and subjective norm. The present study has practical and real world implications by contributing to our understanding of what types of messages, in a brochure format, are most effective in changing pregnant women's attitudes, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and intention to exercise postpartum and provides ftirther support for the use of the Theory of Planned Behavior with this population.

Linking of stress offset score (SOS), work satisfaction, and organizational commitment to intentions to quit

The purpose of this study was to identify the impact of stressors and offsetting satistiers, measured in this study with Stress Offset Score (SOS), on intentions to quit and examine the mediating and moderating effects of three facets of work satisfaction (job satisfaction, pay satisfaction, and satisfaction with supervisor) and two facets of organizational commitment (affective and nonnative commitment) on this relationship. The sample was composed of 2990 employees from 21 public and private organizations. The interaction of each type of work satisfaction and organizational commitment, with SOS, was tested using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) procedures. Intentions to quit was the dependent variable. The research questions were determine: (1) Does SOS predict intentions to quit? (2) Does work satisfaction mediate the predictive relationship of SOS on intentions to quit? (3) Does organizational commitment mediate the predictive relationship of SOS on intent to quit? (4) Does work satisfaction moderate the predictive relationship of SOS on intentions to quit? and (5) Does organizational commitment moderate the predictive relationship of SOS on intentions to quit? The results indicated that SOS was negatively correlated with intentions to quit. Each of the types of work satisfaction and organizational commitment variables showed a partial mediated relationship with SOS and each relationship was highly significant, while normative commitment explained more of the relationship then other mediators. The study also tested for interactions but no statistical significant relationships where established between any of the interaction terms (e.g., SOSxJob Satisfaction and SOSxAffcctive Commitment) and intentions to quit.

An impact evaluation of the Ontario ban on smoking in schools and on school property : does the ban on smoking influence high school students' intentions to smoke cigarettes?

The Ontario Tobacco Control Act of 1994 imposed a total ban on smoking in schools, and on school property for every school in the province. The imposition of this policy created problems for school administrators. For instance, students who were smoking on walkways and properties adjacent to school boundaries, clashed with neighbouring property owners who were angry about the resulting damage and disruption. The enforcement of this policy consumes valuable resources at each school; therefore, knowledge about the impact of the policy is important. If effective, this policy has the potential to improve the health of students over their lifetime, by preventing or delaying smoking behaviour. Alternatively, an ineffective policy will continue to create administrative problems for the school and serve no legitimate purpose. Therefore, knowledge about the impact of the smoking ban policy on students' smoking intentions assists policy makers and school administrators in their understanding of the policy's impact within the schools. This research provided an impact evaluation of the ban on smoking in schools and on school property in Ontario. A total of 2069 students, from five high schools, in the Niagara Region, provided complete responses to a survey, designed to test whether smoking intentions were affected by the imposition of the policy. The study used Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (Ajzen, 1991), specifically, the perceived behavioural control measure, to gain some understanding of students' perceptions of control over smoking imposed by the ban. The findings indicate the policy has the potential to influence students' overall smoking intentions. The ban on smoking policy was found to be a significant predictor of the smoking intentions of high school students. As well, attitude, social norms, and perceptions of control were significant predictors of smoking intentions. Exploratory findings also indicated differences between the control beliefs of students from different high schools, indicating potential differences in the enforcement of the smoking ban between schools. The findings also support the utility of the theory of planned behaviour as a methodology for evaluating the influence of punitive policies. This research study should be continued by utilizing the full theory of planned behaviour, including two phases of data collection and the measurement of actual smoking behaviour.

Examining sport commitment and intentions to participate in intramural sports : application of the Sport Commitment Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour in a campus recreational sport setting

Fifty-six percent of Canadians, 20 years of age and older, are inactive (Canadian Community Health Survey, 200012001). Research has indicated that one of the most dramatic declines in population physical activity occurs between adolescence and young adulthood (Melina, 2001; Stephens, Jacobs, & White, 1985), a time when individuals this age are entering or attending college or university. Colleges and universities have generally been seen as environments where physical activity and sport can be promoted and accommodated as a result of the available resources and facilities (Archer, Probert, & Gagne, 1987; Suminski, Petosa, Utter, & Zhang, 2002). Intramural sports, one of the most common campus recreational sports options available for post-secondary students, enable students to participate in activities that are suited for different levels of ability and interest (Lewis, Jones, Lamke, & Dunn, 1998). While intramural sports can positively affect the physical activity levels and sport participation rates of post-secondary students, their true value lies in their ability to encourage sport participation after school ends and during the post-school lives of graduates (Forrester, Ross, Geary, & Hall, 2007). This study used the Sport Commitment Model (Scanlan et aI., 1993a) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen, 1991) with post secondary intramural volleyball participants in an effort to examine students' commitment to intramural sport and 1 intentions to participate in intramural sports. More specifically, the research objectives of this study were to: (1.) test the Sport Commitment Model with a sample of postsecondary intramural sport participants(2.) determine the utility of the sixth construct, social support, in explaining the sport commitment of post-secondary intramural sport participants; (3.) determine if there are any significant differences in the six constructs of IV the SCM and sport commitment between: gender, level of competition (competitive A vs. B), and number of different intramural sports played; (4.) determine if there are any significant differences between sport commitment levels and constructs from the Theory of Planned Behaviour (attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control, and intentions); (5.) determine the relationship between sport commitment and intention to continue participation in intramural volleyball, continue participating in intramurals and continuing participating in sport and physical activity after graduation; and (6.) determine if the level of sport commitment changes the relationship between the constructs from the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Of the 318 surveys distributed, there were 302 partiCipants who completed a usable survey from the sample of post-secondary intramural sport participants. There was a fairly even split of males and females; the average age of the students was twenty-one; 90% were undergraduate students; for approximately 25% of the students, volleyball was the only intramural sport they participated in at Brock and most were part of the volleyball competitive B division. Based on the post-secondary students responses, there are indications of intent to continue participation in sport and physical activity. The participation of the students is predominantly influenced by subjective norms, high sport commitment, and high sport enjoyment. This implies students expect, intend and want to 1 participate in intramurals in the future, they are very dedicated to playing on an intramural team and would be willing to do a lot to keep playing and students want to participate when they perceive their pursuits as enjoyable and fun, and it makes them happy. These are key areas that should be targeted and pursued by sport practitioners.

Innovation and adaptation in the Ontario grape and wine industry: An integrated, transdisciplinary response to climate change

With scientific consensus supporting a 4oC increase in global mean temperature over the next century and increased frequency of severe weather events, adaptation to climate change is critical. Given the dynamic and complex nature of climate change, a transdisciplinary approach toward adaptation can create an environment that supports knowledge sharing and innovation, improving existing strategies and creating new ones. The Ontario wine industry provides a case study to illustrate the benefits of this approach. We describe the formation and work of the Ontario Grape and Wine Research Network within this context, and present some preliminary results to highlight the opportunities for innovation that will drive the successful adaption of the Ontario grape and wine industry.

Assessing the adaptive capacity of the Ontario wine industry to climate change: A case study

The global wine industry is experiencing the impacts of climate change. Canada’s major wine sector, the Ontario Wine Industry (OWI) is no exception to this trend. Warmer winter and summer temperatures are affecting wine production. The industry needs to adapt to these challenges, but their capacity for this is unclear. To date, only a limited number of studies exist regarding the adaptive capacity of the wine industry to climate change. Accordingly, this study developed an adaptive capacity assessment framework for the wine industry. The OWI became the case study for the implementation of the assessment framework. Data was obtained by means of a questionnaire sent to grape growers, winemakers and supporting institutions in Ontario. The results indicated the OWI has adaptive capacity capabilities in financial, institutional, political, technological, perceptions, knowledge, diversity and social capital resources areas. Based on the OWI case study, this framework provides an effective means of assessing regional wine industries’ capacity to adapt to climate change.

Predicting trainees' intentions to transfer training : an application of the theory of planned behaviour

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change in Quebec : the co-construction of agricultural policies in the RCM of Haut-Richelieu

Les facteurs climatiques ainsi bien que les facteurs non-climatiques doivent être pris en considération dans le processus d'adaptation de l'agriculture aux changements et à la variabilité climatiques (CVC). Ce changement de paradigme met l'agent humain au centre du processus d'adaptation, ce qui peut conduire à une maladaptation. Suite aux débats sur les changements climatiques qui ont attiré l'attention scientifique et publique dans les années 1980 et 1990, l'agriculture canadienne est devenue un des points focaux de plusieurs études pionnières sur les CVC, un phénomène principalement dû à l’effet anthropique. Pour faire face aux CVC, ce n’est pas seulement la mitigation qui est importante mais aussi l’adaptation. Quand il s'agit de l'adaptation, c'est plutôt la variabilité climatique qui nous intéresse que simplement les augmentations moyennes des températures. L'objectif général de ce mémoire de maîtrise est d'améliorer la compréhension des processus d'adaptation et de construction de la capacité d'adaptation ai niveau de la ferme et de la communauté agricole à travers un processus ascendant, c’est-à-dire en utilisant l'approche de co-construction (qui peut également être considéré comme une stratégie d'adaptation en soi), pour développer une gestion et des outils de planification appropriés aux parties prenantes pour accroître ainsi la capacité d'adaptation de la communauté agricole. Pour y arriver, l'approche grounded theory est utilisée. Les résultats consistent de cinq catégories interdépendantes de codes élargis, conceptuellement distinctes et avec un plus grand niveau d'abstraction. La MRC du Haut-Richelieu a été choisie comme étude de cas en raison de plusieurs de ses dimensions agricoles, à part de ses conditions biophysiques favorables. 15 entrevues ont été menées avec les agriculteurs. Les résultats montrent que si certains agriculteurs ont reconnu les côtés positifs et négatifs des CVC, d’autres sont très optimistes à ce sujet comme se ils ne voient que le côté positif; d'où la nécessité de voir les deux côtés des CVC. Aussi, il y a encore une certaine incertitude liée aux CVC, qui vient de la désinformation et la désensibilisation des agriculteurs principalement en ce qui concerne les causes des CVC ainsi que la nature des événements climatiques. En outre, et compte tenu du fait que l'adaptation a plusieurs caractéristiques et types, il existe de nombreux types d'adaptation qui impliquent à la fois l'acteur privé et le gouvernement. De plus, les stratégies d'adaptation doivent être élaborées conjointement par les agriculteurs en concert avec d'autres acteurs, à commencer par les agronomes, car ils servent en tant que relais important entre les agriculteurs et d'autres parties prenantes telles que les institutions publiques et les entreprises privées.

Individual and Collective Responsiveness to Climate Change: A Response to Dwyer

Commentaire / Commentary