Values and actions in aversion

Model-based and model-free controllers can, in principle, learn arbitrary actions to optimize their behavior, at least those actions that can be expressed and explored. Indeed, these are often referred to as instrumental controllers because their choices are learned to be instrumental for the delivery of desired outcomes. Although this flexibility is very powerful, it comes with an attendant cost of learning. Evolution appears to have endowed everything from the simplest organisms to us with powerful, pre-specified, but inflexible alternatives. These responses are termed Pavlovian, after the famous Russian physiologist and psychologist Pavlov. The responses of the Pavlovian controller are determined by evolutionary (phylogenetic) considerations rather than (ontogenetic) aspects of the contingent development or learning of an individual. These responses directly interact with instrumental choices arising from goal-directed and habitual controllers. This interaction has been studied in a wealth of animal paradigms, and can be helpful, neutral, or harmful, according to circumstance. Although there has been less careful or analytical study of it in humans, it can be interpreted as underpinning a wealth of behavioral aberrations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate drivers for peatland palaeoclimate records

Reconstruction of hydroclimate variability is an important part of understanding natural climate change on decadal to millennial timescales. Peatland records reconstruct 'bog surface wetness' (BSW) changes, but it is unclear whether it is a relative dominance of precipitation or temperature that has driven these variations over Holocene timescales. Previously, correlations with instrumental climate data implied that precipitation is the dominant control. However, a recent chironomid inferred July temperature record suggested temperature changes were synchronous with BSW over the mid-late Holocene. This paper provides new analyses of these data to test competing hypotheses of climate controls on bog surface wetness and discusses some of the distal drivers of large-scale spatial patterns of BSW change. Using statistically based estimates of uncertainty in chronologies and proxy records, we show a correlation between Holocene summer temperature and BSW is plausible, but that chronologies are insufficiently precise to demonstrate this conclusively. Simulated summer moisture deficit changes for the last 6000 years forced by temperature alone are relatively small compared with observations over the 20th century. Instrumental records show that summer moisture deficit provides the best explanatory variable for measured water table changes and is more strongly correlated with precipitation than with temperature in both Estonia and the UK. We conclude that BSW is driven primarily by precipitation, reinforced by temperature, which is negatively correlated with precipitation and therefore usually forces summer moisture deficit in the same direction. In western Europe, BSW records are likely to be forced by changes in the strength and location of westerlies, linked to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and atmospheric circulation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oxygen isotopes from Phorcus (Osilinus) turbinatus shells as a proxy for sea surface temperature in the central Mediterranean: a case study from Malta.

The marine topshell, Phorcus (Osilinus) turbinatus, is a common component of many archaeological sites in the Mediterranean. This species has been successfully used as a palaeoclimate proxy in Italy. To test whether d18O from P. turbinatus shells can serve as a reliable palaeoclimate archive for other regions of the Mediterranean, we collected live P. turbinatus from the northeast coast of Malta each month for a year. The d18OSHELL values of the outermost growth increments of these live-collected shells ranged between-0.4 and+2.4‰. These values correspond to growing temperatures calculated from shell edge d18O of between 15 °C and 27 °C. Calculated shell edge sea surface temperatures are highly correlated with instrumental records of sea surface temperature recorded over the period of collection. The individuals analysed for this study are smaller than P. turbinatus from populations studied elsewhere in the Mediterranean. Nonetheless, d18OSHELL provides a robust record of sea surface temperatures, suggesting that smaller/younger shells in archaeological deposits can still provide reliable palaeothermometry records. This study extends the upper growth limit P. turbinatus by 2 °C compared with the previous studies of P. turbinatus in the Mediterranean and suggests that, contrary to the previous studies, growth shutdown does not occur in all P. turbinatus when sea surface temperatures exceed 25 °C. This may reflect the higher sample resolution that can be obtained from smaller/faster growing shells, or it may reflect actual higher growth tolerances of P. turbinatus populations in Malta. By showing that P. turbinatus precipitate their shells in d18O equilibrium with surrounding sea water, this study reinforces the potential for the stable isotope chemistry of P. turbinatus shells preserved in Mediterranean archaeological sites to provide a window into the climate and seasonality regimes of the past.

Solar coronal magnetic fields derived using seismology techniques applied to omnipresent sunspot waves

Sunspots on the surface of the Sun are the observational signatures of intense manifestations of tightly packed magnetic field lines, with near-vertical field strengths exceeding 6,000 G in extreme cases1. It is well accepted that both the plasma density and the magnitude of the magnetic field strength decrease rapidly away from the solar surface, making high-cadence coronal measurements through traditional Zeeman and Hanle effects difficult as the observational signatures are fraught with low-amplitude signals that can become swamped with instrumental noise2, 3. Magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) techniques have previously been applied to coronal structures, with single and spatially isolated magnetic field strengths estimated as 9–55 G (refs 4,5,6,7). A drawback with previous MHD approaches is that they rely on particular wave modes alongside the detectability of harmonic overtones. Here we show, for the first time, how omnipresent magneto-acoustic waves, originating from within the underlying sunspot and propagating radially outwards, allow the spatial variation of the local coronal magnetic field to be mapped with high precision. We find coronal magnetic field strengths of 32 ± 5 G above the sunspot, which decrease rapidly to values of approximately 1 G over a lateral distance of 7,000 km, consistent with previous isolated and unresolved estimations. Our results demonstrate a new, powerful technique that harnesses the omnipresent nature of sunspot oscillations to provide magnetic field mapping capabilities close to a magnetic source in the solar corona.

Analyse des facteurs influençant le choix de programme de résidence des leaders étudiants en médecine du Québec : le rôle des GIMF

Problématique : En dépit de nombreuses initiatives et interventions au cours des dernières années, l’intérêt des étudiants en médecine pour la médecine de famille (MF) demeure inférieur aux attentes des planificateurs de services de santé. Objectifs : Préciser les facteurs qui influencent les leaders étudiants en médecine dans leur choix de programme de résidence en s’intéressant plus spécifiquement aux groupes d’intérêt en médecine de famille (GIMF) et aux moyens d’accroître leur efficacité. Stratégie et devis : Approche synthétique par étude de cas multiples à un seul niveau d’analyse. Recherche descriptive à finalité instrumentale en recherche-action. Participants : Leaders étudiants de trois facultés de médecine du Québec (n=21), sélectionnés par choix raisonné à l’aide d’un sociogramme. Méthode : Groupes de discussion et questionnaire autoadministré. Analyse qualitative assistée par le logiciel N-Vivo. Résultats : Différents facteurs, dont l’existence des GIMF, influencent le choix de carrière des étudiants en médecine. Pour augmenter la capacité des GIMF d’intéresser les étudiants à la MF, on pourrait notamment s’appuyer sur les groupes d’intérêt d’autres spécialités et développer une approche de marketing social auprès des indécis, insistant sur leurs motivations d’ordre émotionnel. Conclusion : Les GIMF peuvent contribuer à la promotion et à la valorisation de la MF chez les étudiants en médecine du Québec. En s’intéressant aux leaders étudiants en médecine et leur influence naturelle sur leurs pairs, il est possible d’accroître l’efficacité des GIMF.

Derrota del conocimiento por la información: una reflexión necesaria para pensar en el desarrollo humano y la calidad de vida desde una perspectiva emancipadora

La sociedad de mercado se expandió hasta un proceso de totalización global de los monopolios, viabilizado por el flujo y disponibilidad instantáneos de información (mensajes, valores y cálculos) sobre la base técnica de la comunicación digital, teleinformática e hipermedia y un gran proceso de industrialización de la memoria. En ese contexto, la información desde una perspectiva humana y democrática sólo puede construirse incorporando a las colectividades en el desarrollo de sistemas informáticos participativos, de proyección emancipadora. Propuesta que circula desde hace años en América Latina pero que no hace parte de las agendas de las entidades técnicas de salud, que parecen concentrarse mucho más en la sofisticación de sus sistemas, aunque estos sean perfectamente funcionales al poder. El trabajo analiza los condicionamientos contemporáneos de la información en salud y posibles salidas para una construcción informática alternativa que incluya el pensamiento crítico, la interculturalidad y el poder popular como ingredientes essenciales de promoción y defensa de la vida.

Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

The equivalent-weights particle filter in a high-dimensional system

In general, particle filters need large numbers of model runs in order to avoid filter degeneracy in high-dimensional systems. The recently proposed, fully nonlinear equivalent-weights particle filter overcomes this requirement by replacing the standard model transition density with two different proposal transition densities. The first proposal density is used to relax all particles towards the high-probability regions of state space as defined by the observations. The crucial second proposal density is then used to ensure that the majority of particles have equivalent weights at observation time. Here, the performance of the scheme in a high, 65 500 dimensional, simplified ocean model is explored. The success of the equivalent-weights particle filter in matching the true model state is shown using the mean of just 32 particles in twin experiments. It is of particular significance that this remains true even as the number and spatial variability of the observations are changed. The results from rank histograms are less easy to interpret and can be influenced considerably by the parameter values used. This article also explores the sensitivity of the performance of the scheme to the chosen parameter values and the effect of using different model error parameters in the truth compared with the ensemble model runs.

Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall impacts the world's most populous regions. Accurate EASM rainfall prediction necessitates robust paleoclimate reconstructions from proxy data and quantitative linkage to modern climatic conditions. Many precisely dated oxygen isotope records from Chinese stalagmites have been interpreted as directly reflecting past EASM rainfall amount variability, but recent research suggests that such records instead integrate multiple hydroclimatic processes. Using a Lagrangian precipitation moisture source diagnostic, we demonstrate that EASM rainfall is primarily derived from the Indian Ocean. Conversely, Pacific Ocean moisture export peaks during winter, and the moisture uptake area does not differ significantly between summer and winter and is thus a minor contributor to monsoonal precipitation. Our results are substantiated by an accurate reproduction of summer and winter spatial rainfall distributions across China. We also correlate modern EASM rainfall oxygen isotope ratios with instrumental rainfall amount and our moisture source data. This analysis reveals that the strength of the source effect is geographically variable, and differences in atmospheric moisture transport may significantly impact the isotopic signature of EASM rainfall at the Hulu, Dongge, and Wanxiang Cave sites. These results improve our ability to isolate the rainfall amount signal in paleomonsoon reconstructions and indicate that precipitation across central and eastern China will directly respond to variability in Indian Ocean moisture supply.

Downwelling solar irradiance in the biomass burning region of the southern Amazon: Dependence on aerosol intensive optical properties and role of water vapor

The sensitivity of solar irradiance at the surface to the variability of aerosol intensive optical properties is investigated for a site (Alta Floresta) in the southern portion of the Amazon basin using detailed comparisons between measured and modeled irradiances. Apart from aerosol intensive optical properties, specifically single scattering albedo (omega(o lambda)) and asymmetry parameter (g(lambda)), which were assumed constant, all other relevant input to the model were prescribed based on observation. For clean conditions, the differences between observed and modeled irradiances were consistent with instrumental uncertainty. For polluted conditions, the agreement was significantly worse, with a root mean square difference three times larger (23.5 Wm(-2)). Analysis revealed a noteworthy correlation between the irradiance differences (observed minus modeled) and the column water vapor (CWV) for polluted conditions. Positive differences occurred mostly in wet conditions, while the differences became more negative as the atmosphere dried. To explore the hypothesis that the irradiance differences might be linked to the modulation of omega(o lambda) and g(lambda) by humidity, AERONET retrievals of aerosol properties and CWV over the same site were analyzed. The results highlight the potential role of humidity in modifying omega(o lambda) and g(lambda) and suggest that to explain the relationship seen between irradiances differences via aerosols properties the focus has to be on humidity-dependent processes that affect particles chemical composition. Undoubtedly, there is a need to better understand the role of humidity in modifying the properties of smoke aerosols in the southern portion of the Amazon basin.

Aspectos do mercado eleitoral brasileiro: análise econométrica do impacto dos gastos de campanha nas eleições para a Câmara e o Senado de 2002

Esta dissertação de mestrado em economia foi motivada por uma questão complexa bastante estudada na literatura de economia política nos dias de hoje: as formas como campanhas políticas afetam votação em uma eleição. estudo procura modelar mercado eleitoral brasileiro para deputados federais senadores. Através de um modelo linear, conclui-se que os gastos em campanha eleitoral são fatores decisivos para eleição de um candidato deputado federal. Após reconhecer que variável que mede os gastos em campanha possui erro de medida (devido ao famoso "caixa dois", por exemplo), além de ser endógena uma vez que candidatos com maiores possibilidades de conseguir votos conseguem mais fontes de financiamento -, modelo foi estimado por variáveis instrumentais. Para senadores, utilizando modelos lineares modelos com variável resposta binaria, verifica-se também importância, ainda que em menor escala, da campanha eleitoral, sendo que um fator mais importante para corrida ao senado parece ser uma percepção priori da qualidade do candidato.

Tributação de energia elétrica e bem-estar social: uma análise regional

Os reflexos da tributação sobre o setor elétrico ultrapassam as questões meramente arrecadatórias de estados, municípios e União, envolvem toda a produção do país e o bem-estar de sua população. Neste contexto, e com o intuito de trazer as questões de eficiência e redistributividade ao ambiente de tributação de energia elétrica, o presente trabalho pretende apresentar um panorama da tributação atual do consumo residencial de energia elétrica, principalmente em relação ao ICMS, juntamente com um cálculo simplificado de alíquotas considerando dois modelos de tributação ótima, estabelecidos por F. R. Ramsey e Diamond e Mirrlees, a partir dos quais é possível realizar comparações em relação ao modelo atual e sintetizar uma visão nacional de uma tributação realizada em sua maior parte regionalmente. O primeiro modelo considera apenas eficiência na definição das alíquotas aplicadas aos produtos, partindo da premissa de que todos os consumidores são idênticos e não há preocupações com equidade. As elasticidades necessárias para aplicação do critério de Ramsey são estimadas a partir de dados em painel das 64 distribuidoras de energia elétrica do país, utilizando um modelo em dois estágios com variável instrumental. O segundo modelo, proposto por Diamond e Mirrlees, incorpora a equidade na modelagem, introduzindo a diferenciação entre os indivíduos.

New Brazilian species of Endecous Saussure, 1878: Phallic sclerites, calling song and tegmen morphometry (Orthoptera: Grylloidea: Phalangopsinae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A periferia de “nosotros”. O debate sobre o documentarismo na América Latina: uma análise do filme La Hora de los hornos (1968)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Limites e possibilidades do controle Social: um estudo a partir do conselho de acompanhamento e controle social do FUNDEB no município de Capitão Poço/PA.

Trata-se de estudo acerca do controle social dos recursos do Fundeb, realizado no município de Capitão Poço, região nordeste do Estado do Pará. A pesquisa objetivou analisar os limites e as possibilidades relativas à efetivação de controle social, por meio do Conselho de Acompanhamento e Controle Social do Fundeb no referido município. O estudo foi norteado pelo questionamento se as características e o funcionamento do Conselho de Acompanhamento e Controle Social do Fundeb, em âmbito municipal, o configuram como espaço ou esfera pública que possibilita a efetivação do controle social e o exercício da cidadania. Em relação à metodologia de pesquisa, adotou-se abordagem qualitativa, com estudo de caso instrumental desenvolvido mediante pesquisa de campo. A coleta de dados foi desenvolvida por meio de documentos, entrevistas e observação não participante. A análise foi desenvolvida tendo como referência a categoria central controle social do Fundeb, a partir dos seguintes temas ou subcategorias: esfera pública; composição e atuação do conselho; concentração de decisões; gestão patrimonialista. Os resultados mostraram que o conselho do Fundeb de Capitão Poço apresenta forte concentração das decisões no próprio Poder Executivo, inclusive com a organização do processo de escolha dos membros e que não representa efetivamente um espaço de interação entre Estado e sociedade. Também se observaram reflexos de gestão marcadamente patrimonialista, com destituição do conselho do Fundeb e nomeação de novos membros, sem o correspondente processo eleitoral, no início do mandato do chefe do Poder Executivo. A análise revelou ainda a existência de desarticulação dos conselheiros com suas bases; fragilidade na mobilização das entidades representadas; falta de informação e de capacitação dos conselheiros para o exercício do controle social; e ausência de fornecimento de relatórios mensais por parte do Poder Executivo, para fins de análise pelos integrantes do Conselho. Em síntese, a pesquisa revelou que o controle social do Fundeb em Capitão Poço ainda não se instalou efetivamente. O estudo de caso instrumental desenvolvido em Capitão Poço/PA permitiu inferências quanto à necessidade de desenvolver outros estudos relacionados à temática, como por exemplo: valorização dos profissionais da educação e controle social do Fundeb; institucionalização do controle social do Fundeb como imposição, sem participação social em nível local.