Consumption in Rural Bangladesh : Households, Lifestyles, and Identities

Bangladesh, often better known to the outside world as a country of natural calamities, is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Despite rapid urbanization, more than 75% of the people still live in rural areas. The density of the rural population is also one of the highest in the world. Being a poor and low-income country, its main challenge is to eradicate poverty through increasing equitable income. Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh has experienced many ups and downs, but over the past three decades, its gross domestic product (GDP) has grown at an impressive rate. Consequently, the country s economy is developing and the country has outperformed many low-income countries in terms of several social indicators. Bangladesh has achieved the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of eliminating gender disparity in primary and secondary school enrollment. A sharp decline in child and infant mortality rates, increased per capita income, and improved food security have placed Bangladesh on the track to achieving in the near future the status of a middle-income country. All these developments have influenced the consumption pattern of the country. This study explores the consumption scenario of rural Bangladesh, its changing consumption patterns, the relationship between technology and consumption in rural Bangladesh, cultural consumption in rural Bangladesh, and the myriad reasons why consumers nevertheless feel compelled to consume chemically treated foods. Data were collected in two phases in the summers of 2006 and 2008. In 2006, the empirical data were collected from the following three sources: interviews with consumers, producers/sellers, and doctors and pharmacists; observations of sellers/producers; and reviews of articles published in the national English and Bengali (the national language of Bangladesh) daily newspapers. A total of 110 consumers, 25 sellers/producers, 7 doctors, and 7 pharmacists were interviewed and observed. In 2008, data were collected through semi-structured in-depth qualitative interviews, ethnography, and unstructured conversations substantiated by secondary sources and photographs; the total number of persons interviewed was 22. -- Data were also collected on the consumption of food, clothing, housing, education, medical facilities, marriage and dowry, the division of labor, household decision making, different festivals such as Eid (for Muslims), the Bengali New Year, and Durga puja (for Hindus), and leisure. Qualitative methods were applied to the data analysis and were supported by secondary quantitative data. The findings of this study suggest that the consumption patterns of rural Bangladeshis are changing over time along with economic and social development, and that technology has rendered aspects of daily life more convenient. This study identified the perceptions and experiences of rural people regarding technologies in use and explored how culture is associated with consumption. This study identified the reasons behind the use of hazardous chemicals (e.g. calcium carbide, sodium cyclamate, cyanide and formalin, etc.) in foods as well as the extent to which food producers/sellers used such chemicals. In addition, this study assessed consumer perceptions of and attitudes toward these contaminated food items and explored how adulterated foods and food stuffs affect consumer health. This study also showed that consumers were aware that various foods and food stuffs contained hazardous chemicals, and that these adulterated foods and food stuffs were harmful to their health.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

Macroeconomía y medio ambiente: El PIB como medida de bienestar

Este Trabajo de Fin de Grado estudia el uso del Producto Interior Bruto (PIB) como medida de bienestar. Al tiempo que se realiza el análisis de la contabilidad nacional y, en mayor profundidad del PIB, se detallan algunas medidas alternativas. Éstas han surgido como consecuencia de la búsqueda de indicadores que incluyan en sus mediciones, no solo el crecimiento económico, sino también otra serie de variables que son relevantes y que el PIB no contempla (como los recursos naturales, la contaminación, la calidad de vida o la igualdad en la distribución de la renta de un país, por ejemplo). Así, surgen nuevos indicadores como el PIB ambientalmente ajustado, el Índice de Mejor Vida, el Índice de Progreso Genuino o la Huella Ecológica, entre otros. Como resultado de este análisis se concluye que la medida que mejor refleja el bienestar depende del objetivo específico que se busque investigar. En otras palabras, hoy en día ninguna medida es capaz de contestar todas las preguntas relacionadas con el bienestar de la población. Sin embargo, el PIB no está configurado –ni fue creado- como una medida de bienestar de un país. Por lo tanto, actualmente es preciso acompañar la información de este indicador con la de otros alternativos de tal manera que podamos tener una imagen más completa sobre el nivel de bienestar de un país.

Impacto socioeconômico dos royalties do petróleo nos municípios do estado do Rio de Janeiro

Os royalties de petróleo têm ganhado notoriedade nos últimos anos pelo crescimento das atividades petrolíferas no país, as mudanças nas leis, preços do petróleo e transferência e aplicação de recursos nos Municípios para seu desenvolvimento socioeconômico. Esta pesquisa busca identificar mudanças em indicadores socioeconômicos em Municípios do estado do Rio de Janeiro através de análise temporal de variáveis que indiquem uma relação da evolução socioeconômica dos Municípios com os royalties de petróleo. Para testar esta hipótese, foi feita uma análise de agrupamento dos Municípios do estado do Rio de Janeiro utilizando as variáveis IDH (Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano), PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) e população, sendo todas as variáveis apresentando valores do ano 2000. Com a determinação do número de grupos, foram escolhidos dois Municípios de cada grupo sob a condição de maior arrecadador de royalties e não arrecadador de royalties e analisados entre os anos 2003 e 2006 para verificar a possível mudança de indicadores socioeconômicos neste período e possível relação desta mudança com royalties de petróleo.

Kuznetsen kurba Euskal Autonomia Erkidegoko etxe-hondakinentzat

[EU ] [Lan honetan 2005 eta 2008 urteetarako Euskal Autonomia Erkidegoko 251 udalerrietan Kuznetsen hipotesia betetzen den ala ez aztertu da, Barne Produktu Gordinaren eta etxe-hondakinen arteko erlazioan zentratuz. Udalmap datu basea eta gretl programa ekonometrikoa erabili dira.]

Elasticidade-PIB do Imposto de Renda Pessoa Física e Jurídica

O objetivo específico da presente dissertação é estimar a elasticidade-PIB do Imposto de Renda Pessoa Física (IRPF) e Imposto Renda Pessoa Jurídica (IRPJ) no Brasil entre 1986 e 2012. A pesquisa também incorpora em seus objetivos uma análise técnica a respeito da tributação e seus impactos sobre o sistema econômico, tanto a nível microeconômico e macroeconômico, além de abordar o IRPF e IRPJ em seu aspecto econômico e jurídico. No tratamento metodológico são utilizados modelos de Vetor de Correção de erros (VEC) para estimar as elasticidades-PIB do IRPF e IRPJ. Os resultados apontam uma elasticidade-PIB, tanto para IRPF quanto IRPJ, acima da unidade, na maioria dos modelos estimados, e existem períodos determinados que impactam consideravelmente sobre à arrecadação desses tributos.

Mudanças de Estado e Multiplicadores Fiscais no Brasil entre 1999-2012

Este trabalho avalia o comportamento dos multiplicadores fiscais no Brasil entre 1999-2012. Para tanto, utiliza a metodologia desenvolvida por Sims, Waggoner e Zha (2008), que é um procedimento Bayesiano de estimação no qual os parâmetros do modelo mudam com alterações no estado da economia e os estados (regimes) seguem um processo de mudança de regime markoviano. Ou seja, foi estimado um modelo VAR Estrutural Bayesiano com mudança de regimes Markoviana (Markov Switching Structural Bayesian Vector Autoregression - MS-SBVAR). A base de dados é composta pelo consumo da administração pública, pela formação bruta de capital fixo da administração pública, pela carga tributária líquida e pelo Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), das três esferas do governo (federal, estadual, incluindo o Distrito Federal, e municipal). O software MATLAB/Dynare foi utilizado na estimação dos modelos e os resultados sugerem a ocorrência de 2 ou 3 regimes nos dois modelos que melhor se ajustaram aos dados. Os multiplicadores estimados apresentaram os sinais esperados e os diferentes tipos de multiplicadores fiscais calculados apresentaram valores maiores para a resposta do PIB a choques na formação bruta de capital fixo da administração pública que são eficazes, uma vez que possuem valores maiores do que um e impacto de longo prazo no PIB - quando comparado aos choques no consumo da administração pública, que possuem pouca persistência e são ineficazes (menores do que um), além de uma resposta negativa e persistente do PIB a choques na carga tributária líquida. Os resultados obtidos não indicam, ainda, multiplicadores fiscais maiores em regimes com maior variância nos resíduos do modelo.

Estimativa do custo da asma em tratamento ambulatorial especializado em unidade universitária no Sistema Único de Saúde

A asma é considerada um problema de saúde pública mundial. É necessário expandir o conhecimento sobre seus custos associados em diferentes regiões. O principal objetivo foi estimar os custos do tratamento da asma em uma população de asmáticos com diferentes níveis de gravidade, sob tratamento ambulatorial especializado. Os objetivos secundários foram analisar as características clínicas e sócio-econômicas da população e o custo incremental da associação com a rinite e infecções respiratórias (IR). Asmáticos ≥ 6 anos de idade com asma persistente foram incluídos consecutivamente de março de 2011 a setembro de 2012. Todos realizaram visitas clínicas de rotina com intervalos de 3-4 meses e 2 entrevistas com intervalos de 6 meses para coleta dados. Variáveis clínicas e dados primários sobre os custos da asma, rinite e infecções respiratórias (IR) foram coletados diretamente dos pacientes ou responsáveis (< 18 anos), sob uma perspectiva da sociedade. Os custos em reais foram convertidos em dólares usando a paridade do poder de compra em 2012 (US$ 1,00 = R$ 1,71). Cento e oito pacientes completaram o estudo, sendo 73,8% mulheres. A maioria (75,0%) reside no município do RJ, sendo que 60,1% destes moram longe da unidade de saúde. Rinite crônica estava presente em 83,3%, e mais da metade tinha sobrepeso ou obesidade, nos quais a prevalência de asma grave foi maior (p = 0,001). Metade ou mais dos trabalhadores e estudantes faltaram as suas atividades em decorrência da asma. A renda familiar mensal (RFM) média foi de US$ 915,90 (DP=879,12). O custo médio estimado da asma/rinite/IR foi de US$ 1.276,72 por paciente-ano (DP=764,14) e o custo médio específico da asma foi de US$ 1.140,94 (DP=760,87). Asmáticos obesos, graves ou não controlados tiveram maiores custos em comparação aos não obesos, moderados/leves e controlados (p <0,05 em todas as comparações). A população estudada tem nível sócio-econômico médio/baixo, alta prevalência de rinite crônica e de sobrepeso/obesidade. Maior peso e menor RFM foram mais frequentes entre os graves e não controlados, respectivamente. Asmáticos obesos, graves ou não controlados tiveram maiores custos. O custo incremental da rinite e IR foi de 12%. O custo médio da asma foi equivalente à metade do relatado na União Européia e nos Estados Unidos da América, e foi maior do que a média na região Ásia-Pacífico. Num cenário ideal, onde todos os asmáticos brasileiros recebessem tratamento no Sistema Único de Saúde de acordo com a Iniciativa Global para Asma, o custo total da asma seria equivalente a 3,4-4,5% e 0,4-0,6% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) da saúde e do PIB brasileiro, respectivamente. Estratégias de saúde pública com programas estruturados que facilitem o melhor controle da asma e estimulem a redução de peso poderão contribuir para reduzir os custos da doença, o que poderia tornar a oferta de tratamento medicamentoso gratuito para todos os asmáticos persistentes no SUS uma meta alcançável. Recomendamos estender este estudo de custo da asma para diferentes regiões do país.

Legislative policy, law and competitiveness: a mysterious and difficult relationship in the EU

The Lisbon Agenda places Europe in a uniquely difficult position globally, most particularly as an example of a social and regulatory experiment which many consider to be doomed to failure. The drive towards economic competitiveness has led to a focus on regulation and its effect on entrepreneurship, productivity and business growth but assessing this relationship is complex for a number of reasons. First, not all regulatory effects can be predicted precisely in relation to behavioural outcomes. Path-dependency scholars have also demonstrated that the regulation will have varying effects depending on context. Second, theoretically it is clear that many non-regulatory factors may contribute to economic and competitive success. Third, there is evidence of internal conflict within the Commission as to the relative importance of the Lisbon goals. Finally, the experience of distinct Member States presents challenges both for assessment and prescriptive remedies. The Commission has estimated that the cost of regulatory compliance obligations on businesses in the EU is between 4% and 6% of gross domestic product and that 15% of this figure is avoidable 'red tape' (the term used specifically to signify unnecessary compliance burdens). This article proposes to assess the likely outcomes of de-regulation as we rapidly approach 2010, the year for attainment of the Lisbon goals.

Genomics research: world survey of public funding.

BACKGROUND: Over the past two decades, genomics has evolved as a scientific research discipline. Genomics research was fueled initially by government and nonprofit funding sources, later augmented by private research and development (R&D) funding. Citizens and taxpayers of many countries have funded much of the research, and have expectations about access to the resulting information and knowledge. While access to knowledge gained from all publicly funded research is desired, access is especially important for fields that have broad social impact and stimulate public dialogue. Genomics is one such field, where public concerns are raised for reasons such as health care and insurance implications, as well as personal and ancestral identification. Thus, genomics has grown rapidly as a field, and attracts considerable interest. RESULTS: One way to study the growth of a field of research is to examine its funding. This study focuses on public funding of genomics research, identifying and collecting data from major government and nonprofit organizations around the world, and updating previous estimates of world genomics research funding, including information about geographical origins. We initially identified 89 publicly funded organizations; we requested information about each organization's funding of genomics research. Of these organizations, 48 responded and 34 reported genomics research expenditures (of those that responded but did not supply information, some did not fund such research, others could not quantify it). The figures reported here include all the largest funders and we estimate that we have accounted for most of the genomics research funding from government and nonprofit sources. CONCLUSION: Aggregate spending on genomics research from 34 funding sources averaged around $2.9 billion in 2003-2006. The United States spent more than any other country on genomics research, corresponding to 35% of the overall worldwide public funding (compared to 49% US share of public health research funding for all purposes). When adjusted to genomics funding intensity, however, the United States dropped below Ireland, the United Kingdom, and Canada, as measured both by genomics research expenditure per capita and per Gross Domestic Product.

Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

La aplicación estratégica por escenarios en el medio natural. El caso del Nature Outlook 2050 del PBL.

La prospectiva es parte de la planificación estratégica. Es una herramienta habitual en la gestión y dirección de empresas. Algunos países europeos la incluyen dentro de sus trabajos de diseño de las políticas ambientales. La generación de escenarios es una técnica cualitativa de prospectiva apta para los entornos con alta variabilidad y complejidad. El artículo explica el modo de aplicar esta técnica poniendo en paralelo los pasos dados en el proyecto Nature Outlook 2050 que ha desarrollado la agencia de evaluación y prospectiva ambiental de los Países Bajos (PBL).

Is childhood type 1 diabetes a wealth-related disease? An ecological analysis of European incidence rates

Aims/Hypothesis: To describe the epidemiology of childhood-onset Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes in Europe, the EURODIAB collaborative group has established prospective, geographically-defined registers of children diagnosed under 15 years. A total of 16,362 cases were registered by 44 centres during the period 1989-1994. The registers cover a population of approximately 28 million children with most European countries represented. Methods In most centres a primary and a secondary source of ascertainment were used so that the completeness of registration could be assessed by the capture-recapture method. Ecological correlation and regression analyses were used to study the relationship between incidence and various environmental, health and economic indicators. Findings: The standardised average annual incidence rate during the period 1989-94 ranged from 3.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia to 40.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in Finland. Indicators of national prosperity such as infant mortality (r= -0.64) and gross domestic product (r= 0.58) were most strongly and significantly correlated with incidence rate, and previously-reported associations with coffee consumption (r= 0.51), milk consumption (r= 0.58) and latitude (r= 0.40) were also observed. Conclusion/Interpretation: The wide variation in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rates within Europe could be partially explained by indicators of national prosperity. These indicators could reflect differences in environmental risk factors such as nutrition or lifestyle that are important in determining a country's incidence rate.