Diet, ageing and genetic factors in the pathogenesis of diverticular disease

Diverticular disease (DD) is an age-related disorder of the large bowel which may affect half of the population over the age of 65 in the UK. This high prevalence ranks it as one of the most common bowel disorders in western nations. The majority of patients remain asymptomatic but there are associated life-threatening co-morbidities, which, given the large numbers of people with DD, translates into a considerable number of deaths per annum. Despite this public health burden, relatively little seems to be known about either the mechanisms of development or causality. In the 1970s, a model of DD formulated the concept that diverticula occur as a consequence of pressureinduced damage to the colon wall amongst those with a low intake of dietary fiber. In this review, we have examined the evidence regarding the influence of ageing, diet, inflammation and genetics on DD development. We argue that the evidence supporting the barotrauma hypothesis is largely anecdotal. We have also identified several gaps in the knowledge base which need to be filled before we can complete

Cálculo do Value at Risk (VaR) para o Ibovespa, pós crise de 2008, por meio dos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional (GARCH) e de volatilidade estocástica (Local Scale Model - LSM)

O objetivo deste estudo é propor a implementação de um modelo estatístico para cálculo da volatilidade, não difundido na literatura brasileira, o modelo de escala local (LSM), apresentando suas vantagens e desvantagens em relação aos modelos habitualmente utilizados para mensuração de risco. Para estimação dos parâmetros serão usadas as cotações diárias do Ibovespa, no período de janeiro de 2009 a dezembro de 2014, e para a aferição da acurácia empírica dos modelos serão realizados testes fora da amostra, comparando os VaR obtidos para o período de janeiro a dezembro de 2014. Foram introduzidas variáveis explicativas na tentativa de aprimorar os modelos e optou-se pelo correspondente americano do Ibovespa, o índice Dow Jones, por ter apresentado propriedades como: alta correlação, causalidade no sentido de Granger, e razão de log-verossimilhança significativa. Uma das inovações do modelo de escala local é não utilizar diretamente a variância, mas sim a sua recíproca, chamada de “precisão” da série, que segue uma espécie de passeio aleatório multiplicativo. O LSM captou todos os fatos estilizados das séries financeiras, e os resultados foram favoráveis a sua utilização, logo, o modelo torna-se uma alternativa de especificação eficiente e parcimoniosa para estimar e prever volatilidade, na medida em que possui apenas um parâmetro a ser estimado, o que representa uma mudança de paradigma em relação aos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional.

Estimates of genetic parameters for scrotal circumference using random regression models in Nelore cattle

A total of 15,901 scrotal circumference (SC) records from 5300 Nelore bulls, ranging from 229 to 560 days of age, were used with the objective of estimating (co)variance functions for SC, using random regression models. Models included the fixed effects of contemporary group and age of dam at calving as covariable (linear and quadratic effects). To model the population mean trend, a third order Legendre polynomial on animal age was utilized. The direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental random effects were modeled by Legendre polynomials on animal age, with orders of fit ranging from 1 to 5. Residual variances were modeled considering 1 (homogeneity of variance) or 4 age classes. Results obtained with the random regression models were compared to multi-trait analysis. (Co)variance estimates using multi-trait and random regression models were similar. The model considering a third- and fifth-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, was the most adequate to model changes in variance of SC with age. Heritability estimates for SC ranged from 0.24 (229 days of age) to 0.47 (300 days of age), remained almost constant until 500 days of age (0.52), decreasing thereafter (0.44). In general, the genetic correlations between measures of scrotal circumference obtained from 229 to 560 days of age decreased with increasing distance between ages. For genetic evaluation scrotal circumference could be measured between 400 and 500 days of age. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Test post-weaning duration for performance, feed intake and feed efficiency in Nellore cattle

O objetivo neste estudo foi determinar o melhor período de avaliação para medidas de desempenho, consumo e eficiência alimentar. Durante 112 dias, 60 machos da raça Nelore, recém-desmamados, submetidos à prova de ganho de peso, foram alimentados em baias individuais para determinação do consumo alimentar e do desempenho. O peso corporal dos animais foi determinado a cada 28 dias, depois de jejum de 16 horas de líquidos e sólidos. As alterações na variância, variância relativa e correlações de Pearson e Spearman entre os dados dos períodos de avaliação reduzidos (28, 56 e 84 dias) e período total (112 dias) foram usados para determinar a melhor duração do período de avaliação. A duração do período de avaliação para ganho médio diário, consumo de matéria seca, conversão alimentar e consumo alimentar residual pode ser reduzida para 84, 28, 84 e 84 dias, respectivamente, pois tal redução não diminui significativamente a confiabilidade das avaliações em animais alimentados em baias individuais.

Genetic analyses of smoking initiation, persistence, quantity, and age-at-onset of regular cigarette use in Brazilian families: the Baependi Heart Study

Background: The purpose of this study was to estimate the genetic influences on the initiation of cigarette smoking, the persistence, quantity and age-at-onset of regular cigarette use in Brazilian families. Methods: The data set consisted of 1,694 individuals enrolled in the Baependi Heart Study. The heritability and the heterogeneity in genetic and environmental variance components by gender were estimated from variance components approaches, using the SOLAR (Sequential Oligogenic Linkage Analysis Routines) computer package. The mixed-effects Cox model was used for the genetic analysis of the age-at onset of regular cigarette use. Results: The heritability estimates were high (> 50%) for smoking initiation and were intermediate, ranging from 23.4 to 31.9%, for smoking persistence and quantity. Significant evidence for heterogeneity in variance components by gender was observed for smoking initiation and age-at-onset of regular cigarette use. Genetic factors play an important role in the interindividual variation of these phenotypes in females, while in males there is a predominant environmental component, which could be explained by greater social influences in the initiation of tobacco use. Conclusions: Significant heritabilities were observed in smoking phenotypes for both males and females from the Brazilian population. These data add to the literature and are concordant with the notion of significant biological determination in smoking behavior. Samples from the Baependi Heart Study may be valuable for the mapping of genetic loci that modulate this complex biological trait.

Heritability of physical activity traits in Brazilian families: the Baependi Heart Study

Background It is commonly recognized that physical activity has familial aggregation; however, the genetic influences on physical activity phenotypes are not well characterized. This study aimed to (1) estimate the heritability of physical activity traits in Brazilian families; and (2) investigate whether genetic and environmental variance components contribute differently to the expression of these phenotypes in males and females. Methods The sample that constitutes the Baependi Heart Study is comprised of 1,693 individuals in 95 Brazilian families. The phenotypes were self-reported in a questionnaire based on the WHO-MONICA instrument. Variance component approaches, implemented in the SOLAR (Sequential Oligogenic Linkage Analysis Routines) computer package, were applied to estimate the heritability and to evaluate the heterogeneity of variance components by gender on the studied phenotypes. Results The heritability estimates were intermediate (35%) for weekly physical activity among non-sedentary subjects (weekly PA_NS), and low (9-14%) for sedentarism, weekly physical activity (weekly PA), and level of daily physical activity (daily PA). Significant evidence for heterogeneity in variance components by gender was observed for the sedentarism and weekly PA phenotypes. No significant gender differences in genetic or environmental variance components were observed for the weekly PA_NS trait. The daily PA phenotype was predominantly influenced by environmental factors, with larger effects in males than in females. Conclusions Heritability estimates for physical activity phenotypes in this sample of the Brazilian population were significant in both males and females, and varied from low to intermediate magnitude. Significant evidence for heterogeneity in variance components by gender was observed. These data add to the knowledge of the physical activity traits in the Brazilian study population, and are concordant with the notion of significant biological determination in active behavior.

The subjective present and its modulation in clinical contexts

Time is a basic dimension in psychology, underlying behavior and experience. Timing and time perception constitute implicit processes that are often inaccessible to the individual person. Research in this field has shown that timing is involved in many areas of clinical significance. In the projects presented here, we combine timing with seemingly different fields of research, such as psychopathology, perceptual grouping, and embodied cognition. Focusing on the time scale of the subjective present, we report findings from three different clinical studies: (1) We studied perceived causality in schizophrenia patients, finding that perceptual grouping (‘binding’, ‘Gestalt formation’), which leads to visual causality perceptions, did not distinguish between patients and healthy controls. Patients however did integrate context (provided by the temporal distribution of auditory context stimuli) less into perceptions, in significant contrast to controls. This is consistent with reports of higher inaccuracy in schizophrenia patients’ temporal processing. (2) In a project on auditory Gestalt perception we investigated auditory perceptual grouping in schizophrenia patients. The mean dwell time was positively related to how much patients were prone to auditory hallucinations. Dwell times of auditory Gestalts may be regarded as operationalizations of the subjective present; findings thus suggested that patients with hallucinations had a shorter present. (3) The movement correlations of interacting individuals were used to study the non-verbal synchrony between therapist and patient in psychotherapy sessions. We operationalized the duration of an embodied ‘social present’ by the statistical significance of such associations, finding a window of roughly 5.7 seconds in conversing dyads.We discuss that temporal scales of nowness may be modifiable, e.g., by mindfulness. This yields promising goals for future research on timing in the clinical context: psychotherapeutic techniques may alter binding processes, hence the subjective present of individuals, and may affect the social present in therapeutic interactions.

Genetic and microbial factors modulating the ubiquitin proteasome system in inflammatory bowel disease

OBJECTIVE: Altered microbiota composition, changes in immune responses and impaired intestinal barrier functions are observed in IBD. Most of these features are controlled by proteases and their inhibitors to maintain gut homeostasis. Unrestrained or excessive proteolysis can lead to pathological gastrointestinal conditions. The aim was to validate the identified protease IBD candidates from a previously performed systematic review through a genetic association study and functional follow-up. DESIGN: We performed a genetic association study in a large multicentre cohort of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and UC from five European IBD referral centres in a total of 2320 CD patients, 2112 UC patients and 1796 healthy controls. Subsequently, we did an extensive functional assessment of the candidate genes to explore their causality in IBD pathogenesis. RESULTS: Ten single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in four genes were significantly associated with CD: CYLD, USP40, APEH and USP3. CYLD was the most significant gene with the intronically located rs12324931 the strongest associated SNP (pFDR=1.74e-17, OR=2.24 (1.83 to 2.74)). Five SNPs in four genes were significantly associated with UC: USP40, APEH, DAG1 and USP3. CYLD, as well as some of the other associated genes, is part of the ubiquitin proteasome system (UPS). We therefore determined if the IBD-associated adherent-invasive Escherichia coli (AIEC) can modulate the UPS functioning. Infection of intestinal epithelial cells with the AIEC LF82 reference strain modulated the UPS turnover by reducing poly-ubiquitin conjugate accumulation, increasing 26S proteasome activities and decreasing protein levels of the NF-κB regulator CYLD. This resulted in IκB-α degradation and NF-κB activation. This activity was very important for the pathogenicity of AIEC since decreased CYLD resulted in increased ability of AIEC LF82 to replicate intracellularly. CONCLUSIONS: Our results reveal the UPS, and CYLD specifically, as an important contributor to IBD pathogenesis, which is favoured by both genetic and microbial factors.

Asthma and obesity in children: current evidence and potential systems biology approaches.

Both obesity and asthma are highly prevalent, complex diseases modified by multiple factors. Genetic, developmental, lung mechanical, immunological and behavioural factors have all been suggested as playing a causal role between the two entities; however, their complex mechanistic interactions are still poorly understood and evidence of causality in children remains scant. Equally lacking is evidence of effective treatment strategies, despite the fact that imbalances at vulnerable phases in childhood can impact long-term health. This review is targeted at both clinicians frequently faced with the dilemma of how to investigate and treat the obese asthmatic child and researchers interested in the topic. Highlighting the breadth of the spectrum of factors involved, this review collates evidence regarding the investigation and treatment of asthma in obese children, particularly in comparison with current approaches in 'difficult-to-treat' childhood asthma. Finally, the authors propose hypotheses for future research from a systems-based perspective.

Phytoplankton Scales of Variability in the California Current System: 2. Latitudinal Variability

The California Current System encompasses a southward flowing current which is perturbed by ubiquitous mesoscale variability. The extent to which latitudinal patterns of physical variability are reflected in the distribution of biological parameters is poorly known. To investigate the latitudinal distribution of chlorophyll variance, a wavelet analysis is applied to nearly 9 years (October 1997 to July 2006) of 1-km-resolution Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) chlorophyll concentration data at 5-day resolution. Peaks in the latitudinal distribution of chlorophyll variance coincide with features of the coastal topography. Maxima in variance are located offshore of Vancouver Island and downstream of Heceta Bank, Cape Blanco, Point Arena, and possibly Point Conception. An analysis of dominant wavelengths in the chlorophyll data reveals a transfer of energy into smaller scales is generated in the vicinity of the coastal capes. The latitudinal distribution of variance in sea level anomaly corresponds closely to the chlorophyll variance in the nearshore region (<100 km offshore), suggesting that the same processes determine the distribution of both. Farther offshore, there is no correspondence between latitudinal patterns of sea level anomaly and chlorophyll variance. This likely represents a transition from physical to biological control of the phytoplankton distribution.

Granger causality and systemic risk

Building on the concept of Granger causality in risk in Hong et al. (2009), and focusing on an international sample of large-capitalization banks, we test for predictability in comovements in the left tails of returns of individual banks and the global system. The main results show that large individual shocks (defined as balance-sheet contractions exceeding the 1% VaR level) are a strong predictor of subsequent shocks in the global system. This evidence is particularly strong for US banks with large desks of proprietary trading. Similarly, we document strong evidence of financial vulnerabilities (exposures) to systemic shocks in US subprime creditors.

On the use of likert-type scales in multilevel data:Influence on aggregate variables

In multilevel analyses, problems may arise when using Likert-type scales at the lowest level of analysis. Specifically, increases in variance should lead to greater censoring for the groups whose true scores fall at either end of the distribution. The current study used simulation methods to examine the influence of single-item Likert-type scale usage on ICC(1), ICC(2), and group-level correlations. Results revealed substantial underestimation of ICC(1) when using Likert-type scales with common response formats (e.g., 5 points). ICC(2) and group-level correlations were also underestimated, but to a lesser extent. Finally, the magnitude of underestimation was driven in large part to an interaction between Likert-type scale usage and the amounts of within- and between-group variance. © Sage Publications.

Seeking Relationships in Big Data: A Bayesian Perspective

The real purpose of collecting big data is to identify causality in the hope that this will facilitate credible predictivity . But the search for causality can trap one into infinite regress, and thus one takes refuge in seeking associations between variables in data sets. Regrettably, the mere knowledge of associations does not enable predictivity. Associations need to be embedded within the framework of probability calculus to make coherent predictions. This is so because associations are a feature of probability models, and hence they do not exist outside the framework of a model. Measures of association, like correlation, regression, and mutual information merely refute a preconceived model. Estimated measures of associations do not lead to a probability model; a model is the product of pure thought. This paper discusses these and other fundamentals that are germane to seeking associations in particular, and machine learning in general. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.1.2, H.2.4., G.3.

Influence of Increased Human Presence in the Mills River Basin on Water Availability and Drought

Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.

Path Optimization in Free Energy Calculations

Free energy calculations are a computational method for determining thermodynamic quantities, such as free energies of binding, via simulation.

Currently, due to computational and algorithmic limitations, free energy calculations are limited in scope.

In this work, we propose two methods for improving the efficiency of free energy calculations.

First, we expand the state space of alchemical intermediates, and show that this expansion enables us to calculate free energies along lower variance paths.

We use Q-learning, a reinforcement learning technique, to discover and optimize paths at low computational cost.

Second, we reduce the cost of sampling along a given path by using sequential Monte Carlo samplers.

We develop a new free energy estimator, pCrooks (pairwise Crooks), a variant on the Crooks fluctuation theorem (CFT), which enables decomposition of the variance of the free energy estimate for discrete paths, while retaining beneficial characteristics of CFT.

Combining these two advancements, we show that for some test models, optimal expanded-space paths have a nearly 80% reduction in variance relative to the standard path.

Additionally, our free energy estimator converges at a more consistent rate and on average 1.8 times faster when we enable path searching, even when the cost of path discovery and refinement is considered.