A feedback-based algorithm forMotion analysis with application to object tracking

We present a motion detection algorithm which detects direction of motion at sufficient number of points and thus segregates the edge image into clusters of coherently moving points. Unlike most algorithms for motion analysis, we do not estimate magnitude of velocity vectors or obtain dense motion maps. The motivation is that motion direction information at a number of points seems to be sufficient to evoke perception of motion and hence should be useful in many image processing tasks requiring motion analysis. The algorithm essentially updates the motion at previous time using the current image frame as input in a dynamic fashion. One of the novel features of the algorithm is the use of some feedback mechanism for evidence segregation. This kind of motion analysis can identify regions in the image that are moving together coherently, and such information could be sufficient for many applications that utilize motion such as segmentation, compression, and tracking. We present an algorithm for tracking objects using our motion information to demonstrate the potential of this motion detection algorithm.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Multicriterion differential games with applications to combat problems

In this paper a theory for two-person zero sum multicriterion differential games is presented. Various solution concepts based upon the notions of Pareto optimality (efficiency), security and equilibrium are defined. These are shown to have interesting applications in the formulation and analysis of two target or combat differential games. The methods for obtaining outcome regions in the state space, feedback strategies for the players and the mode of play has been discussed in the framework of bicriterion zero sum differential games. The treatment is conceptual rather than rigorous.

EXTENSIONS OF VECTOR BUNDLES WITH APPLICATION TO NOETHER-LEFSCHETZ THEOREMS

Given a smooth, projective variety Y over an algebraically closed field of characteristic zero, and a smooth, ample hyperplane section X subset of Y, we study the question of when a bundle E on X, extends to a bundle epsilon on a Zariski open set U subset of Y containing X. The main ingredients used are explicit descriptions of various obstruction classes in the deformation theory of bundles, together with Grothendieck-Lefschetz theory. As a consequence, we prove a Noether-Lefschetz theorem for higher rank bundles, which recovers and unifies the Noether-Lefschetz theorems of Joshi and Ravindra-Srinivas.

Unemployment and private returns to higher education in Argentina (1974-2002)

Resumen: El trabajo analiza la evolución de los retornos privados a la educación superior en Argentina durante el período 1974–2002 y cómo éstos se vieron afectados por el desempleo. La conclusión es que los retornos a la educación son mayores si se los corrige teniendo en cuenta el desempleo para cada nivel educativo, ya que a mayor nivel, menor tasa de desempleo. Al evaluar invertir en educación no se debería considerar simplemente el diferencial de ingresos sino también la mayor probabilidad de tener un trabajo. Esto es relevante en un país como Argentina que pasó de tener tasas de desempleo cercanas a 5% en la década del ochenta a tener tasas de dos dígitos a fines del siglo XX y comienzos del XXI.

Finite differences and a coupled analytic technique with applications to explosions and earthquakes

An analytic technique is developed that couples to finite difference calculations to extend the results to arbitrary distance. Finite differences and the analytic result, a boundary integral called two-dimensional Kirchhoff, are applied to simple models and three seismological problems dealing with data. The simple models include a thorough investigation of the seismologic effects of a deep continental basin. The first problem is explosions at Yucca Flat, in the Nevada test site. By modeling both near-field strong-motion records and teleseismic P-waves simultaneously, it is shown that scattered surface waves are responsible for teleseismic complexity. The second problem deals with explosions at Amchitka Island, Alaska. The near-field seismograms are investigated using a variety of complex structures and sources. The third problem involves regional seismograms of Imperial Valley, California earthquakes recorded at Pasadena, California. The data are shown to contain evidence of deterministic structure, but lack of more direct measurements of the structure and possible three-dimensional effects make two-dimensional modeling of these data difficult.

Highly sensitive wave-front sensor with a non-zero-order phase plate

We propose a novel highly sensitive wave front detection method for a quick check of a flat wave front by taking advantage of a non-zero-order pi phase plate that yields a non-zero-order diffraction pattern. When a light beam with a flat wave front illuminates a phase plate, the zero-order intensity is zero. When there is a slight distortion of the wave front, the zero-order intensity increases. The ratio of first-order intensity to that of zero-order intensity is used as the criterion with which to judge whether the wave front under test is flat, eliminating the influence of background light. Experimental results demonstrate that this method is efficient, robust, and cost-effective and should be highly interesting for a quick check of a flat wave front of a large-aperture laser beam and adaptive optical systems. (c) 2005 Optical Society of America.

A report on the population structure of adult salmon and sea trout in the River Lune using scale samples - with reference to historical data.

During 1993, a comprehensive data set of scale readings, length and weight measurements was established for migratory salmonids on the River Lune. This information was collected using three methods of fish capture: 1. The Lune estuary commercial nets. 2. River Lune Forge weir fish trap. 3. River Lune rod catch scale returns. Additional information was contributed by the Kent, Leven and Duddon rod and commercial fisheries. The data shows that the salmon stock in 1993 was dominated by two year old smolts. This varies from year to year. The sea trout population displays a normal population curve in terms of numbers of fish in each age and weight class. The growth rate of salmon and sea trout is very similar even though salmon have the benefit of high sea feeding.

A Low-level Geographic Information System for coastal zone management, with application to Brunei Darussalam. Part II:: Economic analysis of trawling in Brunei Darussalam

Economic analysis of the trawl fishery of Brunei Darussalam was conducted using cost and returns analysis and based on an economic survey of trawlers and B:RUN, a low-level geographic information system. Profitability indicators were generated for the trawl fleet under various economic and operational scenarios. The results show that financial profits are earned by trawlers which operate off Muara, particularly those with high vessel capacity, and that these profits could be further enhanced. On the other hand, a similar fleet operating off Tutong would generate profits due mainly to high fish biomass. Trawling operations offshore are deemed financially unfeasible. Incorporating realistic opportunity costs and externalities for existing trawl operations off Muara results in economic losses.

Stabilization of planar collective motion with limited communication

This paper proposes a design methodology to stabilize relative equilibria in a model of identical, steered particles moving in the plane at unit speed. Relative equilibria either correspond to parallel motion of all particles with fixed relative spacing or to circular motion of all particles around the same circle. Particles exchange relative information according to a communication graph that can be undirected or directed and time-invariant or time-varying. The emphasis of this paper is to show how previous results assuming all-to-all communication can be extended to a general communication framework. © 2008 IEEE.

Recovering Three-Dimensional Structure from Motion with Surface Reconstruction

We address the computational role that the construction of a complete surface representation may play in the recovery of 3--D structure from motion. We present a model that combines a feature--based structure--from- -motion algorithm with smooth surface interpolation. This model can represent multiple surfaces in a given viewing direction, incorporates surface constraints from object boundaries, and groups image features using their 2--D image motion. Computer simulations relate the model's behavior to perceptual observations. In a companion paper, we discuss further perceptual experiments regarding the role of surface reconstruction in the human recovery of 3--D structure from motion.

A Network for Learning Kinematics with Application to Human Reaching Models

A model for self-organization of the coordinate transformations required for spatial reaching is presented. During a motor babbling phase, a mapping from spatial coordinate directions to joint motion directions is learned. After learning, the model is able to produce straight-line spatial velocity trajectories with characteristic bell-shaped spatial velocity profiles, as observed in human reaches. Simulation results are presented for transverse plane reaching using a two degree-of-freedom arm.

Returns to R&D on new drug introductions in the 1980s.

This study finds that the mean IRR for 1980-84 U.S. new drug introductions is 11.1%, and the mean NPV is 22 million (1990 dollars). The distribution of returns is highly skewed. The results are robust to plausible changes in the baseline assumptions. Our work is also compared with a 1993 study by the OTA. Despite some important differences in assumptions, both studies imply that returns for the average NCE are within one percentage point of the industry's cost of capital. This is much less than what is typically observed in analyses based on accounting data.

The Diminishing Returns to Trade Policy in the European Union

The notion that the EU is a trade power is central to studies of the Union’s international presence. Credible threats to withhold access to Europe’s markets are said to provide the Union with leverage in respect of other trade partners. This paper queries the continuing ability of the European Union to act effectively this way. The current Doha malaise is a symptom of deeper changes in the international trade system. As emerging markets become more affluent and participate in foreign direct investment, their interest in market access per se become less important relative to other areas of regulation.

Asymptotic Approximations in the Near-Integrated Model with a Non-Zero Initial Condition

This paper considers various asymptotic approximations in the near-integrated firstorder autoregressive model with a non-zero initial condition. We first extend the work of Knight and Satchell (1993), who considered the random walk case with a zero initial condition, to derive the expansion of the relevant joint moment generating function in this more general framework. We also consider, as alternative approximations, the stochastic expansion of Phillips (1987c) and the continuous time approximation of Perron (1991). We assess how these alternative methods provide or not an adequate approximation to the finite-sample distribution of the least-squares estimator in a first-order autoregressive model. The results show that, when the initial condition is non-zero, Perron's (1991) continuous time approximation performs very well while the others only offer improvements when the initial condition is zero.